Should the Union Have Sought Another Small Victory?
Personally, I prefer the DH-less game. I like when managers are forced to make more in-game decisions — in particular, when they must decide whether to allow a starting pitcher to take one last at-bat before exiting. I like that starting pitchers who are perhaps pitching too aggressively up-and-in are held accountable by stepping into the batter’s box. In an age of elevated pitching injuries, I like that the pitching spot allows pitchers a breather when working through the lineup multiple times. I like that each player who wields a bat must also wear a glove. And as a former beat writer, and as a fan of the game, I like that the game moves a little more quickly without the DH.
But it seems the adoption of the DH by the NL is inevitable, having become part of the game at the amateur level and every professional level besides the NL. Entering the most recent collective-bargaining cycle, it seemed like the DH-to-the-NL could be in play.
Manfred also said NL adopting DH is gaining momentum. Expect it to be addressed in upcoming CBA, so could be for '17 season. #mlb
— David Lennon (@DPLennon) January 21, 2016
As for DH, eventually MLB was going to go DH route, with more interleague play & concern over pitchers health. Sure union will be on board.
— David Lennon (@DPLennon) January 21, 2016
I bring up the DH today because Pedro Alvarez is still available. I bring up the DH today because the NL’s leading home-run hitters last season, Chris Carter, had so little appeal on the market this offseason that he considered playing in Japan before agreeing to a one-year, $3-million deal with the Yankees. I bring up the DH because Adam Lind (142 wRC+ in 2014, 119 wRC+ in 2015) settled for a one-year, $1.5-million deal with the Nationals in mid-February. I bring up the DH because, as Dave Cameron wrote earlier this offseason, the industry is not valuing bat-only players.
The players seemed to have largely kicked the can down the road in the most recent CBA. Their objectives seemed modest in nature, focused primarily on the qualifying offer. And the changes to QO compensation did mark a small victory for the union. Despite a declining share of revenues, players are nevertheless enjoying record average salaries. Perhaps the status is quo is good enough for the majority of players.
But if the union is seeking small victories, it’s a little surprising the DH wasn’t more of a focus. It didn’t seem to be a significant negotiating topic in CBA talks despite indications from Rob Manfred that there was growing interest from his perspective, and with Tony Clark suggesting that he was open to the idea when speaking with the St. Louis Post Dispatch back in 2015.
Perhaps the players misread the direction of the market, that bat-first players are increasingly experiencing difficulty in finding work. Has the market overcorrected against these players? Will it correct back? We don’t know for sure.
What we do know is bringing the DH to the NL could create 15 new starting jobs — real economic growth! — where only a bat is required, though teams increasingly have sought to use the DH as a vehicle to create roster flexibility with more versatile players.
Moreover, the DH would also address, if only slightly, the growing revenue imbalance between players and owners. As Craig Edwards wrote last winter, the designated hitter was the highest paid position in the game.
Wrote Edwards:
A combination of the free agent system, aging, and the decline that puts the spectrum to use mean first basemen and designated hitters make the most money while shortstops tend to make the least when taking all starters into account.
Edwards also explored what adding the DH and a 26th man would mean for players’ share of revenues. Adding a 26th man would create just $54 million in new player salary, Edwards estimates, with the average bench salary being $1.8 million at the time of his study last offseason. But if the designated hitter arrived in the NL, the salaries filling those slots would be more significant, assuming the position continued to be paid well because of the type of player — aging sluggers — who often fill it.
Now, big picture, the DH debate is a relatively small matter, though it’s a big thing for a growing pool of bat-only players who were still waiting for work in February as spring-training camps opened.
Under Clark, the union hasn’t been interested in picking a big fight like, say, over a salary floor or the service-time requirements to become eligible for arbitration or free agency. Players haven’t engaged there. But I think most agree that the players could have done better for themselves in the most recent CBA. And even if they didn’t want to pick large battles, even if their focus is on incremental improvement, they could have chosen — and perhaps won — a smaller victory with the DH, and helped a growing nobody of bat-first players while taking a slice out of a growing revenue imbalance. I like the DH-less game, but the players should want the DH in every lineup in baseball.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Each year there are fewer than 10 the AL who start more often at DH than in the field, and only a handful that start 80% of the time at DH. Ortiz, Martinez, Morales…OK, help me.
All the other teams rotate guys through DH to give them a “rest” from playing the field. Adding the DH to the NL would give maybe 5 players a starting gig, while on the rest of the teams everyone on the roster would get an additional 60-80 PAs over the course of the season.
Brian, it’s true more teams have sought versatility through the DH role recently. I’m going to make a small edit to the post to account for your point. If the DH were added in concert with a 26th man maybe that would return the position to becoming more bat-centric. Still, DH has been a high-paying position in recent times, according to Edwards’ research … so it would add some level of salary to MLB payrolls of adopted in the NL.
High paying for those half dozen guys who can rake while otherwise being unathletic.
Emphasis on ‘small’ victories
“Dave Cameron wrote earlier this offseason, the industry is not valuing bat-only players”
Your opening paragraph was great, I agree with all of it. The rest is an underhanded attack on the National League that is contrary to the facts.
I’m only looking forward to the arrival of Shohei Otani because he’s a two-way player. It’s my profound hope that Otani is a driving force to remove the DH from MLB.
Shohei Otani makes much more sense for the AL than NL. NL teams aren’t going to run him out in LF when he’s not pitching. In the NL, he hits once every 5 games. In the AL, he can DH when not pitching and hit every day.
“NL teams aren’t going to run him out in LF when he’s not pitching”
I would not have any special interest in Otani if I were not “going to run him out in LF when he’s not pitching”
I thought I made that point in my post, but I guess not.
Travis–What’s the breakdown between older former position players now mostly DH-ing as they work off their long term contracts, and new free agents being signed at market rates?
Good question, here is last season’s DH leaderboard: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 It’s a mixed bag and it depends how you classify an EE or a Morales and others
EE and Morales are DH’s, but they are used to play the field too because bullpen usage has reduced benches. The best DH’s are ones who can occasionally take the field. Yet NL teams are not going to sign EE or Morales types because they recognize they need the DH position to fully unlock their value.
Perhaps I am overly influenced by what a great DH can mean to a team. I know there aren’t many David Ortiz’s, but I find it difficult to understand why teams keep a thirteenth pitcher instead of a strong, but otherwise unplayable, hitter. I will settle for Kendry Morales, Victor Martinez or Albert Pujols. A lineup with a regular and a good DH is certainly better than a lineup with the same regular, now the DH, and a bench player playing and some of the DH’s that have been used should embarrass team management. I understand the trade offs for rest but giving up the constant of another strong bat in the lineup everyday seems an inefficient use of personnel.
What evidence is there that NL teams would actually increase their payrolls rather than just allocate the same money differently?
There’s pretty strong evidence to the contrary, which is that the owners seemed to be amenable to the idea, and they are generally not interested in any change that adversely affects their bottom line…
Quite true, although the economics of the DH is still within your post, both for the team and players side. Teams pay so much money now for their players they want to maximize their use, while also keeping them healthy, so rotational use of the DH spot allows for this. From the players side, it allows for the extension of careers for players making a good salary. The union is very interested in that, which is why the DH will never go away. Matt Holliday is no longer good in the field. He signs a one-year, $13M deal to DH for the Yankees. He can still hit. Carlos Beltran will DH for the Astros. Hanley Ramirez moves from the field into a more full-time DH slot. Edward Encarnacion will make $20M a year for the next three years to mostly DH, etc. There’s a reason these players exist in the AL and not the NL. The union will not give up those high-paying positions.
I’m fine if the NL never adopts the DH. I understand fans who grew up watching that style prefer that style. I’m a fan of an AL team. I’m in my 50s, greying, a recent grandfather. I mention this to point out I’m not a kid. I’ve only known the DH for my favorite team. As a fan, I never want to see a pitcher hit. To me, it’s not a question of the DH leaving the AL. It’s question if the NL ever wants to adopt the DH. That’s up to them.
DH in the NL will not lead to 15 extra roster spots. Maybe if you didn’t try to write five terrible articles a day, you may successfully write one good one.
I would downvote this 15 times if I could. Travis has been a fantastic addition to the Fangraphs team.
I’d second that 150 times. I don’t understand why disagreement needs inevitably to insult.
BECAUSE SHUT UP, THAT’S WHY!
(Obviously, I agree with you.)
In agreement with the 2 above comments, I’d have to downvote vmx’s comment 150 x 15 = 2250 times.
Don’t worry about Travis. Worry about yourself. Why don’t you attempt to write one good note? That will be a start.
STFU
The unjustified antagonism aside, this comment does touch on a relevant point. The “DH decision” without a roster expansion is a zero sum game as far as the Union is concerned. The bat-only DH that finds a job in the NL is only taking away a roster spot and a major league contract from other player, whether it be an extra reliever or defensively versatile utility player, or something else altogether.
The real victory for the union would be the 26th man (or any other change to the roster rules), with or without a DH in either league. And that would be no small battle in the next CBA.
Except that allowing for the DH tends to allow older (read: more senior in the union) players to play longer in more important roles.
I do think it is an open question as to whether AL teams spend more money because the DH exists. I would think they do, but just taking the average DH salary and subtracting the average bench bat salary seems to be a rudimentary way of looking at this. In the end, teams are operating on budgets and as businesses, so at least to some extent any additional resources that go to a DH have to come from somewhere. Do we think they’re coming out of the owners’ profits?
The meaning of revenue disparity is that the owners have money to spend. The extra cash comes from the owners’ pockets. They would spend more to acquire the scarce resource of bat-only players. Without the DH, the 26th man would be a minimum salary reliever.
“Some” older players will remain relevant for longer. If the DH increases demand for aging sluggers, aging middle relievers (or aging starting pitchers looking to reinvent themselves as relievers) may find themselves out of a job.
And there’s nothing to say that the DH has to be a veteran who’s lost a step in the field. There are plenty of guys in AAAA/DFA hell because they don’t have a well defined defensive position.
Why would adding a 26th player not reduce the avg. salary of the other 25? One of the main functons of a union is to keep people out, so I’d doubt all the senior members would welcome another competitor for playing time and dollars.
Evo,
That’s a good point that I failed to think through clearly. There is no reason to believe that an expansion of rosters in a vacuum will only have a dilutive effect on major league salaries. It’s still a zero sum game unless the owners are convinced or coerced into increasing their player payroll obligations.
But I don’t think the union would object to roster expansion on the grounds of increased competition. Every major league club today already has many more than 25 guys who earn a major league salary, so in the short term, the only thing that would change is that the taxi squad will shrink, and some fringe guys won’t have to shuttle back and forth to their AAA franchise as often.
Long term, as teams figure out how to best redistribute salary obligations under the new rules, the landscape will most likely look too different for any of us to casually predict with any certainty.
You seem like a fun guy.
Maybe a bit of trolling, but I will agree to a limited extent.
Since partnering with ESPN and Fox, Fangraphs and its key writers have made a sharp turn towards an abundance of articles that are very pro-agent, pro-FA spend, – very similar to the typical Bowden/Olney nonsense on Disney Sports. These articles often ignore fangraphs own work.
See Eno’s articles praising the A’s Billy Butler FA spend (when the metrics at the time showed the signing to be abysmal),
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-the-billy-butler-deal-may-not-be-totally-crazy/
or similarly his recent article on why the Braves needed to spend on Sean Rodriguez.
or Dave’s article supporting the Yankees Jacoby Ellsbury spend
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yankees-sign-jacoby-ellsbury-bet-on-speed-aging-well/
These aren’t cherry picked articles, it’s been near-constant in the past 4 years that, as fangraphs partners with the major Sports media leaders, articles about big money issues have come into lockstep. Fangraphs still has the annual ‘worst deals of…’ articles, but critiques are fewer and further between: even ESPN has similar content. Fangraphs now regularly engages in small-sample size cherry picking and narrative-driven ad hoc analysis to justify what it had formerly and correctly critiqued. In that sense, it’s appeal has become broader but dumber, it’s shifted to prose and away from math, and the content is more suitable for a Disney partner: it’s basically an ‘EPSN Insider’ site now.
As said, Fangraphs’ focus on free agency articles has obviously shifted towards promoting large FA spends, whereas originally Fangraphs often used statistical analysis to show why spending less in FA was more efficient. This article, – as always in recent years- equates spending more in FA with better: i.e. carries water for CAA et al.
Competent statistical analysis shows exactly why the market for Alvarez, Lind and Carter is negligible: the reason being that they add so little value as far as wins. None are projected for much WAR, WAR/550, etc. All are coming off of fairly poor seasons, and all are relatively old in a league where age/productivity curves are getting younger. Additionally, as others have pointed out, smarter approaches to using the DH to rotate players or gain situational/platoon advantages are emerging- which reduces the value of a mediocre DH-only player. Why should Fangraphs promote the idea that these poor players should get paid and get roster spots over other more effective players?
It seems to be a given that recent fangraphs is always ‘pro-union’ (which means pro-agent, pro-CAA), ‘pro-spend,’ etc – which requires the site to become less empirical, as the articles tend to ignore best practice and shill ESPN-style nonsense. In that sense I agree that the quality of the site is declining, as there is now less Tango but more …CAA cheerleading and content generation, world-wide leader style. I know it is popular to be pro-union, but this piece does come off as a bit of partisan pandering with almost nothing as far as statistical analysis.
I think you’ve done good job of respectfully advancing a contrary opinion. I want to respond in the same tone, but largely disagree. If there is a pro-labor tilt here, it’s not manifest in every article. Bad deals have been critiqued at length. Controversial signings, like the Yankees Chapman deal, were excoriated. Sometimes there are unquestionably articles that turn out to be poor predictors. To look at the Ellsbury article you cite, the author acknowledged it was an overpay, said the Yankees could afford it, and here’s how it was wrapped up: “The Yankees paid a lot of money for a very good player. That very good player is probably going to remain a very good player for the next few years, and then, like nearly every free agent, he’ll be an overpaid albatross in the last few years of the deal.” I’m not sure at the time that piece was written that would have been a controversial evaluation–the player’s almost immediate tank was unexpected, given that he was a 5.7 BWAR player his contract year.
In an ideal world, everything would be empiric, with no bias. That’s not going to occur-personally, I have a beef with the use of WAR, which has it’s issues, to apply as an exact determinant of value. But even that has some intellectual integrity to it when applied consistently, as it Craig Edward’s evaluation of the 2016 FA contracts.
But you can’t expect Fangraphs to be judged on only their overvaluations without looking at the other side of the equation. Show me numbers of a gross disparity/inaccuracies.
VMX, the article stated it would create 15 new starting jobs, not roster spots, so way to shoot yourself in the foot.
Let’s give this guys some credit, he only needed 156 characters to show what a jabroni he is. He’s blowing past one down vote per character. Very efficient trolling.
My preference would have been simply another roster spot. With the extended bullpens we see today, there’s a real need for an additional player with versatility. It would have created more jobs, more service time starts if you sometimes used it for younger players.
Another roster spot would most likely just lead to teams putting another hard throwing reliever in the bullpen, which would just compound the pace of play problems with more pitching changes.
The thing is, creating jobs is not what senior union members care about. That’s why the young players are getting screwed now and why they will continue to be. No one is representing the minor leaguers in the negotiations.
A far better solution is to ditch the DH in the AL and expand rosters to 26 players. I hate the DH. Don’t ever watch AL games because of it. Always pull for the NL in ASG and WS.
Entirely refusing to watch half of baseball because of one rule seems a bit extreme.
As I noted above, it is not up to the NL to tell AL and its fans that they should now watch pitchers attempt to hit. The DH has long since moved beyond being an experiment. It’s used through the game, including in the minor leagues. The NL can continue as it pleases, as can the AL.
Yeah, watching David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez smash all those home runs was just awful (Dave Cameron sarcastic tone)
I cannot fathom people who hate the DH. Do you attend actual baseball games? Isn’t it fun watching pitchers hit? Or maybe the subtle joy of watching a manager think? And while you cheat for the NL to win against the AL, do you notice your more frequently cheering for the losing team?
why was the DH concept ever conceived in the first place? if you don’t want pitchers to bat, just skip them in the order. seems like a strange concept that was invented to maintain a counting system based on 9’s and 3’s. (and, yes, I get why the DH exists now and that it isn’t going anywhere)
John S, I’m quite sure if baseball was invented today, the pitcher would never bat, and there would also never be a DH. The 8 position players would bat and the pitcher would be treated as the unique player that he is on the field. That, however, will never happen today. The union will never vote to remove the DH in the AL.
I doubt we’d see an 8-man order if baseball was invented today. It it was invented today, pitchers wouldn’t hit so badly as they do. The DH has clearly eroded those skills.
Compare pitchers’ hitting to MLB totals, for the last 4 years before the DH and the most recent 4 years. Their relative performance has shed about 20 points of BA and 80 of OPS:
— 1969-72: BA -.105 (.145-.249) … OPS -.314 (.373-.687)
— 2013-16: BA -.124 (.130-.254) … OPS -.393 (.326-.719)
The DH was NOT invented because pitchers were bad hitters, or because they were getting worse; their relative performance for ’69-72 was virtually the same as for ’59-62. It was just because AL scoring in 1972 had plunged to near the ’68 nadir, and folks got nervous.
AL pitchers in ’72 actually hit *better* than most years, compared to AL totals: -.094 in BA (.145-.239), -.279 in OPS (.366-.645). But they were still the weakest link, and so the easiest way to boost AL offense. And since it was experimental, and the NL wasn’t joining in, there was no serious thought of the more drastic step of an 8-man batting order.
Today’s best-hitting pitchers are just as good as those in the last few years before the DH. So I think their average level would be almost as good today if the DH wasn’t used at every level of development.
Look at pitcher offense over a longer period. It has been declining since the early days of baseball and this makes perfect sense.
Pitching and hitting skills, aside from general athleticism, are largely unrelated. As teams get better and better at picking pitchers for their pitching skills, the odds that they’ll also have good hitting skills decreases.
You raise a valid issue, but I don’t think the expansion-era data backs your conclusion.
A graph of pitchers’ BA and OPS as a percentage of non-pitchers suggests the DH revived a separation trend that had nearly died out:
— Pitchers declined steadily through the ’40s and ’50s.
— But they improved from ’66-’74.
— Then there was a decline that started slowly, but accelerated into the late ’80s.
— But since then, pretty level.
Pitchers’ BA in 1988 was 51.5% of non-pitchers. Last year, 51.2%.
10-year averages show pitchers in 1972-81 hitting a tad *better* than in 1956-65. But as the pre-DH veterans aged out, and the DH became more widespread at developmental levels, the lack of reps led to decline. More recent years, since the DH fully took root, show very small decline.
In sandlot, high school, and many amateur levels, there is no need for a DH. The pitcher may actually be a relatively good hitter. But in the higher professional levels, the specialization leads to pitchers who can’t hit. Compared to their contributions on the mound, their lack of hitting is unimportant. You put Jon Lester on the mound in a key game regardless of the fact he’s a godawful hitter.
If you value rest for players in an age of increasing injuries, it would seem to me that you would support the DH, not oppose it. See how some managers, like Buck Showalter, have used the DH spot to rotate some good hitters out of the field for a game.
Also, the degree of “rest” NL pitchers get from having a terrible batter in the opposing lineup is dubious. You would have to compare pitchers hitting to average 9-hole hitters to see how much worse they are, and then see how that translates to “high stress pitches thrown,” and then take into account that, in most games, pitchers only bat 2 / maybe 3 times (not 4 / maybe 5). Seems minimal, compared to position player rest afforded by the DH.
I read somewhere, maybe on this site, that “resting” a player as a DH doesn’t work. He needs a day completely off to rest. Of course using the DH for an injured player, such as Schwarber in the WS, clearly can work.
I would welcome any links to research on this.
An important thing to think is that the DH also clearly aides the teams’ defense. Imagine if Chipper Jones played in a DH league, he could have extended his career and not be forced to play an infield spot everyday — something he only should’ve done sparingly late in his career. If the MLBPA doesn’t see how this could help veterans extend their careers (like Jones) while opening doors for young players to play the field everyday then that’s a pretty big problem. Extending the DH gives more money to the players, plain and simple.
The Pirate Dick Stuart is my favorite example of a good-hitter whose defense at 1B was so awful that he hardly played. IIRC the ridicule he received was so great that it destroyed his ability to hit, also.
I saw this out of context of Fangraphs and thought it was going to be about the Civil War
In a way the union sort of is now
While your point surely stands, at least to a small degree, I presume that the Union understands that the *last* people that need more protection by the MLBPA are the veteran sluggers. Considering the way 0-3 and even 4-6 year-players are paid, I would think the MLBPA’s focus is on them, not guys that have already made millions in the game and therefore in need of less protection.
Also, some of these ‘Union should’ve done this’ articles are getting a little out of hand. It’s a CBA, meaning that there is give and take on all issues. If an issue isn’t promulgated, it might simply mean that it was discussed but felt that the Owners already gave a little more than they should on another issue.
It’s not that the MLBPA is missing something or made a mistake. It’s that they probably already got a ‘credit’ somewhere else. It’s a bit naive and perhaps presumptuous to think that we, as fans, spotted something egregious from the outside – w/o the benefit of complete information.
When has a union ever acted to protect the interests of its newest members over those of its most senior members?
1. Keep the players happy – Give the home starting pitcher the choice to bat or to use a DH. The visiting team follows suit.
2. Keep the fans happy – The DH, if used, is tied to the starting pitcher. The same strategies remain in use, such as whether to let a pitcher finish the inning when his spot is due up. Once the starting pitcher is pulled, the DH is lost.
3. Keep the union happy – Add the 26th roster spot to cover the extra batter in the NL and increased use of late-inning pinch hitters in the AL.
Thanks Travis. I know there have been some questions recently about what role Fangraphs can have now that there are fewer and fewer market inefficiencies to “expose,” both to the general reader or the occasional agent or front office person who finds him/herself in these pages. And yes, there’s so much more data now than there was five years ago, but there’s also so many more analysts!
For me, articles like this (and the regular contributions from Craig Edwards et al) are an answer, since there seems to me a lack of focus from journalists and a lack of understanding among fans, even among more dedicated, how the economics of baseball work, how they’re different from economic systems outside of baseball, how a small adjustment to something like the QO system, like how international free agents are signed, or how revenue sharing works can have a profound impact on the game. Less so for the Fangraphs reader, but I don’t think I’m alone in wanting more coverage of economics/labor/contracts. I’ll admit that my loyalty more often than not (though not always) resides with labor movements, so the question for me would shift from “What is the most efficient way to win games?” to “What are the best things the union could do for their players?” Others I think, may want to know, “What is the smartest way for owners to continue controlling costs?” I’d read those pieces of course too.
Fangraphs has been covering this side of the game since as long as I’ve been reading (4+ years), but I for one could certainly stand more of it. I realize that this is a major shift, that covering economics well on a daily basis and doing your best to find writers who can translate it for a general fan would be a major accomplishment. Just thinking out loud here.
I don’t like watching most pitchers flail helplessly at the plate, but I don’t like designated hitters either. It would be great if they simply eliminated that spot from the lineup entirely, which would allow the other eight to receive more plate appearances.
So watching Ortiz and EE hit is not a good baseball experience for fans? Just skip that spot in the roster?
Third inning, bases loaded, two out…. 8th hitter at the plate? Go get a beer. No tension here. DH up? Game could be decided right now. Skipping the DH? You must rarely experience live baseball other than that NL thing.
Even NL minor league teams have the DH. That’s how weird it is not to have one.
Clark just wants to please MLB. If MLB wants it they got it, sooner or later
Better than the worst deal the union ever signed? Yeah, I think they could have done s little better.
Like, just spit balling here, not agreeing to a de-facto hard salary cap.
They’re never clawing that back without a work stoppage now. So they need to AT LEAST, insist on a salary floor, a set percentage of revenue (ala NBA) and making the luxury tax auto rise pegged to league revenues (also a la NBA).
For years the mlbpa was a model union. It’s a dann shame they signed this deal.
I prefer the DH but bringing it to the NL may unintentionally turn off a lot of fans. Instead, the union should fight for a better alternative like giving the NL home advantage in the World Series every year. That way the steaks in the All-Star Game are less high (making it more fun) while the difference between having a DH and not is lessoned. Win-win for both sides, MLBPA and most importantly, the fans.