Slumping Red Sox Get a Boost With the Returns of Chris Sale and Kyle Schwarber

The Orioles have a way of making the most free-falling of teams look healthy, but even so, the Red Sox had to be heartened by their three-game sweep this past weekend, as they finally took the wraps off two key stretch-run additions. On Friday night, trade deadline acquisition Kyle Schwarber made his Red Sox debut, and on Saturday, Chris Sale made his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery. The pair should help shore up a team whose chances at a playoff spot have taken a hit in recent weeks.

The Red Sox trounced the Orioles by scores of 8-1, 16-2, and 6-2 from Friday to Sunday, giving the team just its second winning streak of longer than two games since the All-Star break. Even with the sweep, the Sox have gone just 6-8 in August, 14-15 in the second half, and 19-20 since the start of July, squandering an AL East lead that was as large as 4 1/2 games circa July 5. At 69-51, they now trail the Rays (71-47) by three games, and their chances of winning the division have dropped from a high of 70.8% to 39.4%. Those odds can’t help but improve with the additions of Schwarber and Sale, potential impact players who can each shore up an area of need.

Sale’s return came two years and one day after his last major league outing, dating back to his missing the final six weeks of the 2019 season due to elbow inflammation. After suffering a flexor tendon strain and experiencing continued pain, he underwent Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020, his 31st birthday. The Red Sox were resolute in not rushing him back; he made the first of his five rehab appearances on July 15, 15 1/2 months after surgery, with the final two such outings lasting 81 and 89 pitches, respectively, which is to say that he wasn’t appreciably trying to increase his pitch count so much as fine-tune his repertoire.

With the caveat that the Orioles rank among the AL’s bottom three in scoring and bottom five in wRC+, and on Saturday had just one player with a wRC+ above 100 in the lineup (Trey Mancini) while three others (lefty Cedric Mullins and righties Ramón Urías and Ryan Mountcastle, the last of whom is on the injured list) were out, Sale turned in an encouraging performance. He allowed two runs and six hits over five innings, striking out eight without walking a batter. The runs came on back-to-back solo homers in the third inning by Austin Hays and Mancini; both had exit velocities above 100 mph, but only one other ball — a fourth-inning fly out by Maikel Franco — was hit above 80 mph.

Sale netted an impressive 16 whiffs from among his 89 pitches, including 10 on his four-seam fastball and four on his slider. The heater averaged 93.2 mph according to Statcast, comparable to his 2019 average (93.4) if still two full clicks below his ’18 velo. He generated 15 called strikes, including 10 on his fastball and four on his changeup, for an outstanding 34.8% CSW% — nearly a full point above his 2017-19 mark, and a whisker above Corbin Burnes‘ major league-leading mark. In other words, even at reduced velocity, the stuff plays.

Sale joins a rotation that has been more solid and stable than spectacular. The Red Sox are the only team in the majors with five pitchers who have made at least 20 starts apiece, but both Garrett Richards (5.22 ERA, 5.17 FIP) and Martín Pérez (4.77 ERA, 4.92 FIP) have recently been exiled to the bullpen in favor of rookie Tanner Houck (who has yo-yoed between Triple-A Worcester and Boston but is expected to remain in the majors following Tuesday’s start against the Yankees) and Sale. The unit as a whole ranks a middling eighth in the AL in ERA (4.52) but fourth in FIP (3.92), though in the second half, those numbers have risen to 4.67 and 4.07, respectively. A lack of defensive support — the Sox are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (.658), 18 points below the 14th-ranked Orioles and 35 points below league average — has contributed to the ERA/FIP gap. Of the five regular starters, only Nick Pivetta has a BABIP below .325, and both Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez have ERAs more than a run above their FIPs. While the Sox aren’t likely to push either Sale or the 25-year-old Houck too hard, the hope is that they can at least pitch deeper into ballgames than the pair they replaced, who by combining to average less than five innings per turn taxed a bullpen that’s been hit for a 4.93 ERA and 4.14 ERA since the All-Star break.

As for Schwarber, who was acquired from the Nationals on July 30 in exchange for pitching prospect Aldo Ramirez, he joined the lineup on Friday as the designated hitter. It was his first game action of any kind since July 2, when he strained his right hamstring while running out a base hit. That injury had halted an incredible stretch during which the 28-year-old slugger clubbed 16 homers in an 18-game span, elevating his wRC+ from 91 to 136, and earning him a spot on the NL All-Star team.

In trading for Schwarber, the Red Sox were well aware that he wouldn’t be able to join the lineup immediately. As recently as last Tuesday, his timetable was apparently up in the air. While the team sent him to Worcester for what was supposed to be about a week-long rehab assignment, his first appearance was rained out on Thursday. With the big club’s 3-11 skid lending urgency to the situation, the Sox decided that instead of letting him get acquainted with first base — a position he had never played professionally — at Triple-A, they’d forgo minor league action and insert him back into the lineup immediately.

Schwarber went 0-for-2 in his Red Sox debut, but drew two walks and scored twice. Manager Alex Cora gushed about the impact of Schwarber’s plate discipline, saying afterwards, “What Kyle did today without swinging the bat in two at-bats [which lead to walks], that’s what he brings to the equation. The patience, the zone discipline and his ability to get on base.”

Schwarber didn’t play on Saturday, but was back in the lineup on Sunday, going 2-for-4 with a pair of hard-hit doubles, a 107.7-mph one in the sixth inning off Fernando Abad and a 100.1-mph one off Konner Wade in the seventh. Here’s the first of those two hits:

For as much as the Red Sox have struggled lately, their offense hasn’t really been the problem. The team has scored an even six runs per game in August while hitting for a 126 wRC+; since the All-Star break, those marks are 4.90 and 112, respectively. That said, first base has been a season-long problem, one that landed them on my Replacement Level Killers list in late July. Between Bobby Dalbec, Danny Santana, Franchy Cordero, Marwin Gonzalez (who was DFA’d to make room for Schwarber), Michael Chavis (who was traded to the Pirates on July 30) and others, Boston’s first sackers have hit a combined .228/.272/.413 for an 80 wRC+ (tied for 27th in the majors), with -8 DRS (dead last) and -0.7 WAR (tied for 28th) — and that’s with Dalbec having heated up lately. Schwarber, even if he’s learning a new position on the job, can’t help but improve the situation.

Schwarber isn’t expected to play first base exclusively; he’ll also be in the mix in left field and at DH. Meanwhile, another player who could get a look at first is Travis Shaw, who was claimed off waivers by the Red Sox on Sunday. The 31-year-old Shaw was originally drafted and developed by the Red Sox before being traded to the Brewers in December 2016. He’s fallen on hard times, hitting just .191/.279/.337 in 202 PA with Milwaukee this year, his third in a row with a wRC+ below 100, and he’s still recovering from a left shoulder dislocation suffered in June. Shaw was approaching the end of a rehab assignment at Triple-A Nashville, but the Brewers couldn’t find room for him. At this writing, it’s unclear as to whether he’ll be added to the Red Sox’s 26-man roster or head to Triple-A.

Beyond the reinforcements, the good news for the Red Sox is that from among the AL East’s four contenders (including the Yankees and Blue Jays), they have the easiest schedule the rest of the way, with a weighted opponents’ winning percentage of .491, considerably lower than both the Yankees and Rays (each .511). They still have a 2 1/2-game advantage over New York for the second Wild Card spot. A three-game set in the Bronx on Tuesday and Wednesday will test that, but inarguably, they’re in better shape than they last week.