Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/16/21

2:02
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

2:03
Ben Clemens: There’s been some interesting baseball over hte last week, so let’s get to it

2:03
‘Dians: Will Fangraphs ever offer win probabilities for individual games during the regular season? I know it exists for the playoffs utilizing Zips, is it too heavy of a lift to update on a day-to-day basis with 30 teams playing?

2:03
Ben Clemens: It does exist!

2:03
Ben Clemens: You can see our projected odds for each game that hasn’t started right there

2:04
doug: percent chance Alex Reyes starts next year?

2:04
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna put it at 55%. It just feels like a thing the Cardinals want to try, and also something that they SHOULD try

2:04
Aus: Padres signing arrieta them officially waving the white flag? What a disappointing season

2:05
Ben Clemens: I don’t think so, I tihnk it’s more a sign that they are desperate and don’t love their AAA depth

2:05
Ben Clemens: It’s certainly bad

2:05
Ben Clemens: You don’t want to be counting on a completely cooked Jake Arrieta

2:06
Ben Clemens: I just don’t know what else they were supposed to do. Their pitching is just nonexistent at this point

2:06
DarthNateR: Question about the playoff odds- they have the Rays most likely winning the division, but it gives the Red Sox and Yankees better odds of winning the World Series. I see that the ROS w% is the lowest of those three on the Rays, but it still seems odd to have the Sox almost double the Rays World Series odds since the Sox are more likely to have a 1 game playoff. Do you think those odds are missing something here?

2:07
Ben Clemens: I mean, the odds are what they are. If you think our odds are way too high on the Red Sox (we think they are the 5th-best team in baseball ROS)

2:07
Ben Clemens: Then I can’t really argue with you

2:07
Ben Clemens: that sounds high!

2:07
Ben Clemens: Meanwhile we think the Rays are a .500 team

2:07
Ben Clemens: And give the Sox and the Rays a roughly equal chance of winning the division

2:08
Ben Clemens: I think it’s a good bet that we’re too low on the Rays, and that does sound kinda high on the Sox

2:08
Ben Clemens: But my issue would just be with the fact that we think the Sox are elite and the Rays aren’t, so with the projections. The model is just reflecting that view

2:09
Guest: Hey Ben — With the A’s possibly slipping out of playing contention, why did they not bother trying to improve their current biggest issue, that of the black hole of productivity at shortstop?

2:09
Ben Clemens: That one is going to sting for sure

2:09
Ben Clemens: It’s not the A’s will definitely miss the playoffs

2:10
Ben Clemens: But having a shot in the division and also needing to hold off wild card contenders, it’s going to look REALLY bad that they did a bunch of adding but left a huge gap at short

2:10
Ben Clemens: it’s not like they needed a star to get better there

2:10
The Great Giambino: Re: BoSox/Rays projections, is there ever a scenario where you start weighting the projections for specific teams? E.g. give the Rays and A’s an artificial 2 game boost since they’ve historically outperformed their projections

2:10
Ben Clemens: Definitely not lol

2:11
Ben Clemens: That’s not really a good way to handle it. We’ve had some behind-the-scenes discussions on whether we could come up with a new way to handle depth

2:11
Ben Clemens: That involved some math I don’t truly understand

2:11
Ben Clemens: But I don’t think just hard-coding in bumps for teams that generally beat the model is the way to go

2:12
John B: With a few weeks of games past the deadline who is the big winner:  Braves, Yankees, cardinals, giants ?

2:12
Ben Clemens: Giants for me, and Phillies/Braves in second

2:13
Ben Clemens: It’s not that the Giants got more likely to make the playoffs, but we have their odds of winning the west up 12 percentage points since 8/1

2:13
Ben Clemens: That’s huge

2:13
Ben Clemens: Just holding the Dodgers off is really big

2:13
Your Name: Nico Hoerner is probably going to play fewer games than he did last season. Injuries a big concern for him moving forward?

2:14
Ben Clemens: Yes, to go along with ‘is he good enough’

2:14
Ben Clemens: ‘is he healthy enough’ and ‘is he good enough’ are some rough problems to have

2:14
Ben Clemens: I think Hoerner is probably good enough, but a guy who looks like an average player (at best) when healthy is not exactly someone you can stomach injury issues with

2:15
Bubba: Mets/Rocker question.  How bad does his health have to be to justify not having him?  Like, even if he has to go get TJ surgery urgently, they’d still have him under their control through recovery and minors and then 6 years, right?  Seems like a classic LolMets thing happening?

2:15
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, for me there’s something fishy here

2:15
Ben Clemens: I truly don’t get it

2:15
Ben Clemens: And it’s not like they said they were way off… they said they were off a million dollars or so (though this could be a bad leak?)

2:15
Ben Clemens: Recouping a draft pick next year means it’s not a TOTAL loss

2:15
Ben Clemens: but they lost the entirety of the money they had saved up to sign him over slot

2:16
Mo Jiggles: What does Statcast consider the difference between a 2-seamer and a sinker?

2:16
Ben Clemens: A few years ago, Statcast recategorized everything to sinker

2:16
Ben Clemens: It’s annoying that they still exist separately, I manually combine them when I do analysis

2:17
Benintendi: What happened to me?

2:17
Ben Clemens: I don’t really have a good answer

2:17
Ben Clemens: Really shocking

2:17
Ben Clemens: Like, Benintendi being less than his 2018 self is not a shoc

2:17
Ben Clemens: shock*

2:18
Ben Clemens: but I thought he’d be above replacement level

2:18
Your Name: What is your least favorite regularly worn jersey?

2:19
Ben Clemens: I don’t like the Reds home whites very much, but I think I’d put the Rockies at the very bottom

2:19
Ben Clemens: I realllly don’t like the block caps white jerseys

2:19
Ben Clemens: Pirates are on there too

2:19
Ben Clemens: The reds one just looks weird b/c there’s not much on the front, which makes the red Nike check look HUGE

2:20
Guest: Mets slot money savings – sunk cost. Question is Rocker versus draft pick next year.

2:21
Ben Clemens: Well not exactly, it’s Rocker’s surplus vs. that draft pick’s surplus, but yeah. If you think you can get a guy at slot next year who you like more than Rocker, then it’s a worthy pass

2:21
Guest: Bad player comp? Kelenic = Benitendi?

2:21
Ben Clemens: I think so, just b/c Kelenic has a more power-based game

2:22
Ben Clemens: Benintendi is tiny, Kelenic has some pop

2:22
Your Name: Funny you said Reds, I was thinking their red alternates. Hate the font they chose and it’s also HUGE.

2:22
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah I also don’t like those. I really dislike the block cap fonts that teams think are cool

2:22
Nick: Is Jake Arrieta really a better option than anyone else the Padres can throw out there right now?

2:22
Ben Clemens: I don’t think so, but I think he’s totally cooked

2:22
Ben Clemens: They clearly don’t think that or they wouldn’t have signed him

2:22
Ben Clemens: I’d have no interest

2:23
Big Mac: Do you think it would help Triston McKenzie if he were to add some weight? Or is being ‘well built’ as a pitcher overrated and is it better to just let a player be comfortable in their body?

2:23
Ben Clemens: I think you’re right that bein well built is overrated

2:23
Ben Clemens: Having a body type that allows you to throw without discomfort is the goal, or it should be

2:24
Dansby SwanSong: Are deGrom and Severino more data points that throwing 100 MPH comes with likely injury risk?  And is rewarding such pitchers with long term contracts a big risk?

2:25
Ben Clemens: I mean, they are, but htere are data points that go the other way too

2:25
Ben Clemens: Rewarding pitchers with long term contracts period is a big risk, but it comes with rewards

2:26
Ham: Reds red alternates have a script, not a block cap font

2:26
Ben Clemens: These must be different than the ones I’m thinking of then

2:26
Ben Clemens: Ohhhh… just looked these up

2:26
Ben Clemens: Yeah, font too big and strange, but not block

2:27
Joseph: On Elvis Andrus, he is one of the largest xwoba underperformers this year, so if you buy into that as him being unlucky this year, you might view him more as a 1-1.5 WAR veteran with plus intangibles vs. washed up replacement guy

2:27
Ben Clemens: Not buying it even a little

2:27
Ben Clemens: The reason he’s underperforming his xwOBA is because he hasn’t gotten enough production out of his line drives

2:27
Ben Clemens: So sure, you can expect that to pop back up

2:27
Ben Clemens: But he’s also running a 25.8% line drive rate vs. career 21.4%

2:27
Ben Clemens: So he’ll hit fewer line drives next year most likely, and do better on the ones he does hit, net not too much effect

2:28
Ben Clemens: This is one of the things about xwOBA that makes it tough to use — it’s more descriptive than predictive, so if you have a fluky-high line drive rate or something, or hit a ton of flares, it will give you a big number

2:28
Ben Clemens: But those things aren’t very predictive

2:29
Ben Clemens: The parts of hitting that are predictive make Andrus look bad. He’s hitting fewer balls hard, not barreling anything, highest strikeout rate of his career

2:29
xwOBA: If it’s not predictive, shouldn’t it be more like “underlying wOBA” than “expected”

2:30
Ben Clemens: It’s what you would expect their wOBA to have been based on their batted balls

2:30
Ben Clemens: But yeah, I’m with you, the name definitely can be confusing

2:30
Nathan: If a player is exceeding or underperforming his xwOBA, is it always explainable by luck, or is there a point where his actual performance is who he is regardless of what it says?

2:30
Ben Clemens: DEFINITELY not always explainable by luck

2:30
Ben Clemens: I would argue it’s often not explainable by luck

2:30
Ben Clemens: xwOBA is a neat tool but it’s certainly not foolproof

2:30
Severino: His contract was all of four not very expensive years. Yeah, hasn’t worked out, but, like, that was not a dumb deal.

2:31
Ben Clemens: Right, and I think the Mets would sign deGrom again

2:31
Don: Why don’t projection systems favor Tyler O’Neill RoS? No big expected rise or fall in K% or BB%; it seems to be based on BABIP regression, but xBA and xwOBA exceed BA and wOBA, and he’s got a 55 HH% and 18 Barrel%. Is .356 really unsustainable?

2:32
Ben Clemens: Similar deal to Andrus. It’s reasonable to think he won’t keep hitting 26% line drives, which will cut into his BABIP

2:32
Ben Clemens: I think they’re too low on his babip, regression or not

2:33
Ben Clemens: B/c his combination of hard-hit rate and speed tends to lead to high babips

2:34
Ben Clemens: Is his babip unsustainable? Probably long-run yeah. But if it’s .330 or something (that’s basically his career average) it’s still a better line than his projections

2:34
Ben Clemens: I’d take the over on our 108 ROS wRC+, but the under on 120

2:34
Draper: Who do you think the wild cards will be for each league?

2:34
Guest: Think the Reds can chase down the Padres?  The Reds have some issues with Winker being out and the bullpen still being shaky, but the Padres’ rotation has been a shambles.

2:35
Ben Clemens: I’ll take the Padres, it feels like the teams are just trading awful injury news (Winker is out now) but the Padres are ahead and weathered Tatis being out without losing the lead

2:36
Bryan Reynolds: Dark Horse MVP? .309/.391/.536 🤤

2:36
Ben Clemens: I mean, no, but definite MVP vote-getter

2:37
Ben Clemens: Reynolds has continued to impress at the plate throughout the year, particularly when it comes to power

2:38
Ben Clemens: That’s what really surprises me most about him; the babip has always been there, but he’s getting to his power way more than I thought he would

2:38
MM: How do statcasts stats like xBA handle things like the way defenses position their players?  A line drive hit really hard by a LH batter directly at where a 3B traditionally plays would be an out, but against a shift where 3B is in RF that same hit it is going to be a double.  So the actual expected BA on that would be different today than, say several years ago when there were fewer shifts.

2:39
Ben Clemens: They handle it by COMPLETELY ignoring horizontal angle

2:39
Ben Clemens: Down the 3b line? Right at short? Right at second? All treated the same

2:39
Ben Clemens: Is that the right way to treat it? I dunno

2:39
Ben Clemens: But that’s what it does

2:40
Nathan: If I have bunch of players’ wrc+ and I want to see what their team wrc+ would be if they were all together do I just average them all? Or do I need more information like plate appearances or something?

2:40
Ben Clemens: You could average them together and get close, but it wouldn’t be perfect just b/c the #1 hitter will bat more than the #9 hitter

2:40
Ben Clemens: But you’d get pretty close, it’s probably good enough for theoretical purposes

2:41
Johnny5Alive: Is senzel basically done in Cincinnati? they optioned him after his IL stint was done, and then opted to not call him up when they put Winker on the IL.

2:41
Ben Clemens: It kind of feels like it, right?

2:42
Ben Clemens: I think they also might think he’s not ready, or not fully back from injury

2:42
Ben Clemens: I think they’ll give him a shot next year, for example

2:42
Ben Clemens: But his rehab time was basically up, and if they were watching him and not into what they were seeing, I don’t hate just calling this year a wash and putting him in AAA

2:43
segiddins: Obligatory gaming question: have you played Arkham Horror? My friend and I have been playing it over mission burritos the past few weeks and I feel like it’s getting me back into tabletop gaming. If you have, any other games like it that you’d reccomend?

2:43
Ben Clemens: I have played Arkham Horror, it’s a ton of fun

2:44
Ben Clemens: I like that co-op style of game; Aeon’s End (and Aeon’s End Legacy) are similarly-styled games minus the walking around a board part that my wife and I have liked playing

2:44
Ben Clemens: We have played, I dunno, maybe 6 Arkham Horror missions?

2:44
Ben Clemens: Or whatver they’re called, Mythos packs

2:45
Ben Clemens: So I’m not an expert

2:45
Tacoby Bellsbury: So, you have to play any board game vs. Brian Cashman: you win, you get to GM the Yankees, you lose, you work on the janitorial staff there until age 65. You taking Candyland, or a game of skill?

2:45
Ben Clemens: Depends on if he gets to practice or not

2:45
Ben Clemens: If we’re playing right now, I’d just pick something that he’s surely never played but that is semi-solvable

2:45
Ben Clemens: If he’s going to get a month to practice and he’ll actually practice instead of, you know, running the Yankees

2:46
Ben Clemens: I’d honestly still pick a skill-based board game I think? I have to think that something where I’ve spent years learning the angles gives me a better than coinflip shot

2:46
Draper: With Degrom’s missed time, Wheeler or Buehler for Cy? Layman here but, briefly, what mainly accounts for Wheeler’s WAR advantage over Buehler?

2:47
Ben Clemens: I give Buehler the edge despite Wheeler’s WAR lead

2:47
Ben Clemens: As to what leads to the WAR, it’s a few things

2:47
Ben Clemens: First, Wheeler has a slightly lower FIP and we base our headline WAR off of FIP. Wheeler has allowed more runners who reach base to score, and FIP kind of normalizes for that

2:47
Ben Clemens: Also, Philly is a tougher place to pitch than LA

2:48
Ben Clemens: Per our park factors, it’s roughly average for run scoring overall, while LA is 5% below average

2:48
Ben Clemens: So a pitcher of the same quality would allow fewer runs in LA. So we credit Wheeler with the difference (or debit Buehler the edge, whichever you want to call it)

2:49
Ben Clemens: But I think that ERA is meaningful for Cy Young (hot take I know), and Buehler is pushing 2.00 while going 12-2 for a great team

2:49
Ben Clemens: It’s just a really broad overall resume

2:50
Joe: Burnes not a consideration for NL Cy?

2:50
Ben Clemens: He is as well for sure

2:50
Ben Clemens: I think the lack of innings will doom him though

2:50
Ben Clemens: Wheeler has pitched 40 more innings so far

2:50
Ben Clemens: It’s just a LOT

2:50
Ben Clemens: If Burnes was only 20 innings behind it’d be one thing

2:50
Ben Clemens: I’d probably vote Burnes anyway but I don’t think voters will

2:51
Doug: If the Phillies win the division, there’s got to be a reasonable chance they get both the Cy Young and MVP winners, right?

2:51
Ben Clemens: Yes, for sure

2:51
Ben Clemens: I think in a year with no clear standout

2:51
Ben Clemens: Voters will care more about players who lead their team to the playoffs

2:52
Ben Clemens: Like, there are no obvious best players in the NL and plenty of people within margin of error for WAR

2:52
Brian: You buying this Cardinals outfield for the future?  if the changes oneill and bader made are real its a pretty legit group

2:52
Ben Clemens: Yeah, the outfield is my favorite part of this Cards team

2:53
Ben Clemens: Bader is a blast to watch, O’Neill looks like at least an average player (he’s the one I’m most worried about still), and Carlson is doing as well as I could have hoped, solidly above average hitter at 22

2:54
BettsBellingerCaruso: Who would you start in a WC game – Buehler or Scherzer?

2:54
Ben Clemens: Buehler I guess, but it’s tough

2:54
Ben Clemens: I think it’s reasonable to defer to the guy who has been there longer and who will stay for longer

2:54
Ben Clemens: B/c there’s not a huge difference in projections from here on out

2:54
BringBackDeSpanielHair: Tatis has got to be in the running for NL MVP, no? He’s flat out shoving, even with injuries.

2:54
Ben Clemens: He is as well. He’s in the within a margin of error group at the top of the league

2:55
Ben Clemens: But I think if Harper and Tatis have basically the same WAR but hte Phillies win the East

2:55
Ben Clemens: More people will vote for Harper

2:55
John B: Wainwright getting Cy votes ?  Lots of innings and other than a couple early season clunkers he’s been lights out

2:56
Ben Clemens: Uh, sadly no.

2:56
Ben Clemens: You only vote 5 slots for Cy Young

2:56
Ben Clemens: Wainwright is 11th in ERA among qualifiers

2:57
Ben Clemens: You’d have to vote for him over: Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Max Scherzer, dG, Kevin Gausman

2:57
Ben Clemens: I mean, he’ll maybe get a few 5th-place votes

2:57
Ben Clemens: And his season is tremendous!

2:58
Ben Clemens: If it went 10 deep, he’d get a ton of mid-range votes

2:58
Ben Clemens: But 5 is just tough

2:58
dave in slc: do you do fantasy? in an nl keeper league trying to win and both pitching and hitting are close for me so wondering if Nola $28 and Smith $19 are worth Carlson $10 and Devin Williams $5 and Neris $6? I like Carlson as a keeper and not *sure* if Nola has been or will be good enough down the stretch to warrant the deal. I would replace Carlson w Jace Petersen. Would I lose too much offense and a good keeper or is it worth it?

3:00
Ben Clemens: I’m a Nola skeptic, but if you’re less down on him than I am, I think it probably makes sense? Carlson is not a super-huge steal depending on your keeper inflation anyway, and Williams, eh… he’s solid, but hopes that he was gonna be  another relief unicorn are maybe fading

3:00
boobie miles: Hi Ben, …Reid Detmers or Casey Mize…higher upside longterm?

3:00
Ben Clemens: Detmers for me

3:01
Ben Clemens: I’d rather have a 70 curve than a 70 splitter, basically

3:01
#1 Flan: Thoughts on the AL Cy Young race?

3:03
Ben Clemens: It’s a weird one

3:03
Ben Clemens: Cole and Lynn are 1/2 in some order right now I’d assume

3:04
Ben Clemens: You can see Tom Tango’s Cy Tracker estimates here if you want:

3:04
Mitchell: Should the Jays feel comfortable offering Robbie Ray a 3/48 deal or is that too rich?

3:04
Ben Clemens: I’d feel comfortable offering it, if that means anything

3:05
Roger: I’d take the splitter. Hitters see it less often. But preference. You think the Angels ever figure it out, or Trout is basically doomed?

3:06
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think that’s kinda baked into the grades, but that’s fair. I think it’s close either way

3:06
Ben Clemens: Ugh I hate to say it but at this point I’d bet on them never figuring it out

3:06
Ben Clemens: They just…. they’ve kept not?

3:06
Guest: Jake Meyers came out of no where for a really strong season in AAA. Now the Astros called him up and he’s off to a hot start. What are the chances he’s the real deal?

3:07
Ben Clemens: I truly don’t know what to make of him

3:08
Ben Clemens: I mean, he was absurd in AAA this year, and it wasn’t just BABIP

3:08
Ben Clemens: But his previous minor league numbers don’t come close to jumping off the page

3:09
Ben Clemens: I’ll give him 15% odds that he’s a real-deal every day starter for a good team

3:09
R Eric Reuss: SPIRIT. ISLAND.

3:10
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, Spirit Island is excellent

3:10
Ben Clemens: I’ve only played it once or twice, but it was a blast and I want to play more

3:10
Ben Clemens: Really fun theme too

3:10
Guest: Re: Cy Young: Do you think voters would be deterred from voting for Cole because of suspicions that his success was built on the use of illegal substances?

3:10
Ben Clemens: No. If he’s getting first place votes, it will mean he has pitched well the rest of the year

3:11
Ben Clemens: More than half of his starts will hvae taken place post-sticky-stuff crackdown

3:11
Ben Clemens: Will there be some suspicions? Yeah of course

3:11
Ben Clemens: But if he has a strong September, it’s not like you can devalue that

3:12
Mugghead: Can we expect Matt Boyd to make any kind of impact once he returns?

3:12
Ben Clemens: I’m just gonna say no, sadly

3:12
Ben Clemens: I’m not a Boyd Boy though

3:12
Ben Clemens: He has looked way better this year!

3:12
Ben Clemens: but his strikeout rate just keeps going down

3:13
Sharps: Come to DC.  Check out the AAAA Washington Nationals.  Visit the best board game restaurant in the country.

3:13
Ben Clemens: Talk to me about this board game restaurant

3:14
Sharps: Crossroads Tabletop Tavern.  1400+ games.  Food.  Local alcohol.

3:14
Ben Clemens: That sounds awesome

3:14
Ben Clemens: I’m actually going to DC for a wedding next month, but not gonna have time to check that out sadly

3:15
Ben Clemens: DC has some good local beers, my stepbrother lives in Alexandria and sometimes we bike to Port City which is always a treat

3:15
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How crunchy is Spirit Island? The other half ****ing loves Pandemic and I’ve been eyeing it as our next coop game, but I know it’s a big step up.

3:15
Ben Clemens: So, a really good part about it is that there are characters of differing complexity

3:15
Ben Clemens: And they’re clearly marked

3:16
Sharps: It avoids alpha-gaming by keeping everyone busy, the theme is amazing.  If you want to check it out, I highly recommend the app, because it is mostly out of stock 🙁

3:16
Ben Clemens: Yeah board games being out of stock everywhere is an annoying pandemic thing

3:16
Guest: You think Cole *will* have a good September then?  His post-crackdown splits don’t seem all that suggestive of an outstanding month coming up for him.

3:17
Ben Clemens: I’m not sure! He looked bad for two starts after the change, then dominant for two, then bad for two

3:17
Ben Clemens: That CGSO in Houston was awesome

3:17
Your Name: Would you rather listen to ARod call every game you watch or have to stand during every game you watch?

3:17
Ben Clemens: Have to stand

3:17
Appa Yip Yip: Ray’s free agency is going to be so fascinating. He was bad quite recently, but he’s also made mechanical adjustments and altered his pitch mix and it appears to be working. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with five years in the 90-110 range on the high end. He’s only 29.

3:18
Ben Clemens: Yeah, the thing that makes me think he’ll do well in free agency is that he was always SEMI wild but his awful 2020 form is easy to discount

3:18
Ben Clemens: He tried new mechanics, they didn’t work at all, he scrapped them

3:19
Ben Clemens: So if you think that throwing his fastball more, dicthing two-seamers altogether, and going slider over curve is enough to improve his zone rate

3:19
Ben Clemens: And I do think that

3:19
Ben Clemens: Then you can buy in on his improvement. Maybe not that this is his true talent walk rate, but that it’s way better than Past Robbie Ray

3:19
Ben Clemens: and Past Robbie Ray wasn’t unplayable by any means, even with the walks

3:20
Sam: Will the qualifying offer thin Ray’s market at all?

3:20
Ben Clemens: Really gonna depend on the CBA

3:20
Ben Clemens: There may not be qualifying offers!

3:20
Roger: Is it really Moreno mainly? I mean, there must be people in the Angels brain trust that realize. Hey, we have a good position player group. Let’s get some pitchers. Trade some prospects if need be (are you getting questions about marsh trades already like you were for Adell after a bad month or so btw?) Idk. I get it isn’t as easy as it may seem, and apparently they went after Cole and whoever else. But I mean c’mon. You can’t  find any pitching that’s more likely to be successful than not?

3:20
Ben Clemens: It feels like that is part of it, but I think at some poit you have to look at the PD as well

3:21
Ben Clemens: It’s not like teams only get good pitching by signing Gerrit Cole

3:21
Hey: Last two seasons (148 games) Teo Hernandez has been rocking a .378 wOBA and put up 4.3 WAR. Slightly different hitting profile this year, but he seems to always hit it hard. Is this his level?

3:23
Ben Clemens: This is probably not his level, b/c I don’t think he will keep doing QUITE so much damage on contact, but solidly above average hitter? I think that’s definitely his level

3:23
BringBackDeSpanielHair: Ben, my dude… I am trying to eek out a playoff clinching win here this week. Pick two of four? H2H Pts league, W+ QS, Robbie Ray vs Detroit, Giolito @ TBR, Castillo vs MIA, and Manoah @ WAS?

3:24
Ben Clemens: Sadly don’t think Gio is in the mix here. I guess I’d go Ray/Castillo, but Manoah is making it interesting

3:24
Ben Clemens: That Washington lineup is dire some days

3:25
Sam: The Jays look like they may fall short of the playoffs this year even though they have two of the top five position players in baseball, and used the deadline to make a pretty solid rotation. They’ve also underperformed their expected wins. What do they need to do in the offseason to get in the playoffs next year?

3:25
Ben Clemens: Build starting depth, and find some more arms for the bullpen

3:26
Guest: Is it realistic to expect the Nationals to be playoff contenders next year?  They could easily bring Scherzer back and, say, sign Trevor Story of Corey Seager in free agency.  That I think would put them in the mix.

3:26
Ben Clemens: I mean, I guess

3:26
Ben Clemens: I’m not convinced they’ll actually make those two moves

3:27
Ben Clemens: They’d be right in contention in the NLE if they did that

3:27
Ben Clemens: But I am more and more getting the sense that they’re retrenching

3:28
Mitch: Free agent outfielders Canha, Marte, Taylor. Who gets the most money?

3:28
Ben Clemens: I think Marte will, and I think Taylor will remain in LA somehow

3:29
Guest: Does Nick Madrigal make the playoffs as a Cub?  Or is their rebuild going to extend beyond the years of team control over him?

3:29
Ben Clemens: Gonna say yes

3:30
Ben Clemens: I think the Cubs are in a position where they’ll want to spend and make the playoffs sometime soon-ish

3:30
Ben Clemens: 2023/24

3:30
Ben Clemens: Madrigal is there for a while

3:30
Ben Clemens: And make the playoffs once? Low bar

3:30
Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, I’m gonna call it a day and eat a lovely tomato gallette my wife made for lunch

3:30
Ben Clemens: Have a great week, everyone





Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

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Ben Hallmember
2 years ago

On the question about the Rays and Red Sox, in addition to all of Ben’s comments which make perfect sense, Darth, you wrote that the Sox are more likely to have a one game playoff. But it’s a pretty small difference in likelihood. Compare it to the Yankees, who are much more likely to have to play in the wild card game, and though ZiPS and Steamer have the Yankees as significantly better, the World Series odds are much closer.