State Of The Org: National League
Yesterday, I assessed the state of each org in the American League ahead of this month’s trade deadline, detailing what effect June might have had on their approach and what they might look to achieve come the end of July. Today, we’ll consider the senior circuit.
NL East
New York Mets
June Effect: Up slightly. For all the understandable concern over the Mets offense, the team has seen their chances of reaching the playoffs creep up a bit into the 75% range.
Current Tenor: Buying.
What They Are After: On paper, the Mets need to do something about their moribund offense, but they are much like the Yankees in that what they actually need is for their exiting lineup to get/stay healthy and start producing like one would expect. A center field upgrade would be ideal, but there aren’t many candidates out there. Some rotation depth to help get to the playoffs would also be nice.
Behavior: With a first-year owner and a first-year GM, clubs are still figuring this one out. The team has money and Steve Cohen wants to win, so they are expected to be aggressive.
Washington Nationals
June Effect: Up, but not in an overly meaningful way. The Nationals entered the month as a 25-to-1 long shot to reach the playoffs, and it’s improved to roughly 10-to-1 thanks mostly to the home run heroics of Kyle Schwarber.
Current Tenor: Certainly not selling, but that would have likely also been the case had their June effect been down. GM Mike Rizzo tends to shy away from tear downs, or even sell-offs at times.
What They Are After: Should the Nats make a push, it will be for pitching, both of the starting and relief variety. A third-base upgrade, or at least a platoon partner for Starlin Castro, would help the lineup.
Behavior: The Nationals are not heavy on analytics, which can create easier trade opportunities due to evaluation asymmetry.
Philadelphia Phillies
June Effect: Down slightly, and still not good. They were at just over 11% a month ago and have dropped a few ticks since.
Current Tenor: Probably standing pat, and continuing to hope for a run that likely isn’t in the cards.
What They Are After: A minor move or two to help a dismal bullpen isn’t out of the question, but the club isn’t expected to be aggressive at this time.
Behavior: Still to be determined with a first-time GM in place. Sam Fuld and team president Dave Dombrowski approach the game from different directions and provide a old school/new school combination that has the potential for shrewd maneuvers.
Atlanta Braves
June Effect: Down. One of the bigger disappointments of the season, the Braves had a chance to get back into things entering the month, still holding on to a more than 20% chance to get to the postseason, but that number has dwindled to just over 15%.
Current Tenor: For now, letting it simmer. This is still the team many saw as division favorites entering the year, and they will likely wait until some point after the All-Star break to make a decision about the second half.
What They Are After: Unfortunate injuries have created a need for starting pitching, and the bullpen has been a disappointment overall.
Behavior: Atlanta is open-minded, responsive, and easy to work with.
Miami Marlins
June Effect: Steady. Despite a run differential that suggests they should be right in the thick of things, the chances of the Marlins returning to the playoffs this year remains microscopic.
Current Tenor: Selling. The team has already moved Corey Dickerson and Adam Cimber, and there are likely more trades to come, with several teams already having reached out on first baseman Jesús Aguilar.
What They Are After: The Marlins understandably believe they are close to turning a corner, so prospect targets will be of the more advanced variety.
Behavior: Kim Ng might be a first-time GM but she has plenty of in-room experience, as does her inner circle.
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers
June Effect: Up significantly. About a 50/50 proposition at the end of May, the Brewers got hot while their division rivals got cold and now have an 86.7% chance of getting to the postseason.
Current Tenor: Buying, and aggressively so. The Willy Adames acquisition may prove to be their biggest in-season move, but they’re not done yet.
What They Are After: Infield corner bats and rotation depth.
Behavior: Milwaukee is easy and straight forward to deal with, and can move quickly once talks gain traction.
Chicago Cubs
June Effect: Down significantly. Struggles with starting pitching have taken what was once a 41.4% chance of a playoff appearance and cut it by more than half.
Current Tenor: The Cubs looked like potential buyers in mid-June, but a disastrous week has put them back on the bubble. There is an open question in the industry as to whether the ownership group would even allow the front office to move big-ticket names like Javier Báez, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant should the slide continue.
What They Are After: No matter how the club conducts business in the coming month, the roster will see significant changes in 2022. Instead of pure prospects, they will likely focus on 0-3 players should they look to kick-start their re-tooling.
Behavior: Still from the Epstein school, the Cubs tend to listen more than they speak, allowing potential trading partners a greater chance of over-paying.
Cincinnati Reds
June Effect: Up. The Reds continue to put runs on the board and now have a nearly 10% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Current Tenor: The team will likely ride things out through at least the All-Star break before moving in either direction.
What They Are After: Should Cincinnati decide to push some chips in, the bullpen will certainly be the priority.
Behavior: It’s GM Nick Krall’s first trade deadline in the big chair, but he’s been second in charge and many teams’ main point of contact for years, so few expect any change in behavior. Discussions with the Reds tends to be pleasant and straight forward.
St. Louis Cardinals
June Effect: Bottoming out. The Cardinals entered the month seven games over .500 with nearly a one-third chance of a playoff appearance, but are now under 5% as their offense has sputtered.
Current Tenor: It’s going to take a miracle for the Cardinals to end up in buying mode, but they’re not pushing the panic button yet.
What They Are After: Should the Cardinals sell, they’ll look find some future answers in terms of the middle infield and at catcher.
Behavior: The Cardinals have had issues in the past with trading away young players who found success elsewhere, like Luke Voit, Randy Arozarena and Adolis García. Be that by tough luck or troubles with internal evaluations, other teams are going to aim high, hoping they can continue the pattern.
Pittsburgh Pirates
June Effect: Steady… as in steady at zero.
Current Tenor: The store is open, but there is no reason to talk about dealing away Brian Reynolds, as their best player still has plenty of control and can be part of a much better Pirates team down the road.
What They Are After: Young talent in all shapes and sizes, plain and simple. Richard Rodriguez and Chris Stratton are both interesting ‘pen arms who offer an extra year of service time, which should help improve the return.
Behavior: The Pirates felt a bit reticent to make deals last summer, and it will be interesting to see if that trend continues this year.
NL West
San Francisco Giants
June Effect: Up. The biggest surprise in baseball continues to be just that, and while our playoff odds continue to see them as a long shot to win the West, they have an 80.1% chance at reaching the playoffs.
Current Tenor: The Giants have a plethora of players with expiring contracts, and will have a dramatically different roster in 2022, but their performance in 2021 demands that they go for it.
What They Are After: The Giants have a good offense and good pitching. They maximize lineups, well beyond just platoons, better than any team in baseball. Brandon Belt’s uncertain return could put them in the market for a first base solution like Jesús Aguilar, C.J. Cron or even Trey Mancini.
Behavior: Having gotten his start with the Athletics, GM Farhan Zaidi follows their model of straight-forward, no nonsense discussions.
Los Angeles Dodgers
June Effect: Steady. The Dodgers chances of reaching the postseason have been in the 95-plus percent range all year, and just under a stone cold lock. If anything, they are peaking now
Current Tenor: The defending World Champions spent the offseason building a roster to do it again, and they’re expected to be very busy this month.
What They Are After: A healthy version of this roster leaves room for improvement only at the margins. Maybe an extra infielder or a platoon bat. The baseball implications should take a backseat here, but if the team and/or Major League Baseball does the right thing and places Trevor Bauer on administrative leave while his case is adjudicated, the Dodgers could look to add another starter.
Behavior: With few if any payroll limitations and still in possession of an above-average system, the Dodgers can play table bully at times, and are often willing to overpay in order to get the players they want.
San Diego Padres
June Effect: Steady. Like the Dodgers, the Padres remain an overwhelming favorite to reach the post-season, sitting at 95-plus percent for long stretches of the season.
Current Tenor: A.J. Preller is not exactly known for sitting on his hands.
What They Are After: The Padres have an excellent everyday lineup, but their bench could use some upgrades given the significant struggles of Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim and Jorge Mateo. An arm to eat some innings through September to avoid over-working the playoff-bound arms would be a nice luxury. They’ll certainly try to make a splashy deal, but it’s hard to figure out what the big move is right now.
Behavior: The Padres are exceptionally aggressive, like 28 Days Later zombie-level aggressive. Their pursuits are relentless, and often navigate a fine line between exceptionally creative and downright wild. They frequently shoot for the moon on players seen as off limits before down shifting to something more realistic.
Colorado Rockies
June Effect: Steady. No chance.
Current Tenor: They should be selling, but are they? Owner Dick Monfort is well known for letting his emotions get in the way of what the team should do on a baseball-logic level.
What They Are After: The Rockies are a bad major league team with an equally bad minor league system. They should just focus on the latter for now.
Behavior: With all of the changes in the front office, who knows? Last month, I had multiple executives admit that they’re not even sure who to call over there. I’m sure they’ve figured it out by now, but there is no consensus on how Colorado will handle the month of July.
Arizona Diamondbacks
June Effect: Steady at zero, but they’ve certainly improved their chances of earning the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft.
Current Tenor: Sellers and have been for awhile. While no deal has gotten over the line yet, they’ve already been plenty busy.
What They Are After: The Diamondbacks have been awful, but this doesn’t feel like a total tear down, as at times their entire starting rotation has been on the IL, a situation no team could recover from. They’ll likely focus on more advanced prospects in deals.
Behavior: It’s another front office from the Epstein school. Exceedingly patient might be the best way to put it.
Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.
Great article Kevin. Curious, how were the Pirates under Neal Huntingdon to deal with?
They were fine. Reasonable and measured.
Thanks for the reply. Local media portrayed him as tough to deal with. But this is the same media that can’t understand why the Pirates would consider any other pick than Rocker or Leiter at 1.1.
Right? It’s so infuriating. The talking heads don’t seem to understand that for a team like Pittsburgh, with an absurd self-inflicted salary cap, they need as many high-upside lottery tickets as possible. It’s not like they are going to pick Bryan Bullington (I hope).
Agreed. I am convinced that I know more about baseball than most of the Pittsburgh media. The worst part is that if someone defends what management is doing, they are labeled an apologist and not invited back on air.
I would say the Pirates are probably looking for players who will not have an extended stay on the 40-man roster before getting onto the active roster or who aren’t going to need Rule 5 protection for a couple of years. That might create some issues as a lot of teams are going to be most interested in moving players who will need to be added to the 40-man soon to alleviate the roster crunch. I’m sure the Pirates would make an exception for excellent talents like George Valera or Jasson Dominguez or Luis Matos (who are all excellent prospects who need Rule 5 protection soonish and are a bit further away) but since they’re top-tier talents teams they’re also more off limits.
They’ll probably find someone to meet their price for Rodriguez and Stratton but it probably will take some time.
Reasonable, but they’ve got a lot of talent below AAA and a looming rule 5 crunch. If they move someone, I expect creativity.
Do they have a looming crunch? I think they’ve got a ton of dead wood on there right now.
Yeah there are something like 7-9 guys who would get attention in the Rule 5 who aren’t on it now. Swaggerty might be ready by then, but Mason Martin, Liover Peguero, Tahnaj Thomas, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Cody Bolton, Eddy Yean, Lolo Sanchez, and Cal Mitchell are all also going to be eligible. It’s doable, because the limit on the number of pitchers on the active roster will mean that players like Steven Jennings and maybe Eddy Yean might not need to be protected but they are going to have an enormous number of players who are not making the team who will get attention in the Rule 5.
I think even if those eight plus Yean were added, you wouldn’t see much of a crunch. I also wouldn’t think twice about not protecting Jennings, I don’t see much there from him worth keeping.
Maybe this is because I’m overly jaded when looking at the big league 25 and see no more than 10 guys I’d roster next year…and I’m not really exaggerating with that. Are guys like Moran, Newman, etc. that hard to hang onto?
Well you still need 26 guys on the active roster. If you DFA Moran then you need someone to replace him at 1B (he’d probably get claimed anyway). Aside from Swaggerty, Keller, Kranick, and Yajure, everyone is already on the 40-man or below AAA. So you could move on from deJong and Kuhl (and Anderson is getting traded, guaranteed) and move the three pitchers up. And Polanco will be gone, so you could move up Swaggerty. So you could move them in while still having a full 26-man roster. That leaves 8-9 other guys and not have them in the majors, plus Castro, Cruz, and Contreras. So now you’re at 26+11 (maybe 12) for your 40-man roster. It’s doable if you skimp on pitching depth at AAA, but it also doesn’t add a lot of room to add more prospects on the 40-man that aren’t ready now.
This could maybe lessen for 2022 because you can imagine that some set of the Cruz / Castro / Martin / Contreras etc etc group will be ready for the majors by then.
Batwise, Cruz is probably ready now, they need to figure out what to do position wise. It would be awesome to have him up in Sept.
The Pirates need to field a ream next season, and those players will require 40/26 man roster spots. The Pirates cannot eliminate all of the dead wood because the prospects in the system are mostly in AA and below that level. This complicates matters.
I don’t see them giving out any Tyler Anderson/Cahill type contracts next year, and the taxi squad/AAA pitching depth should turn over a lot. Why have Cody Ponce or Chase De Jong when you have real prospects coming up to AAA? You can always find those guys.
Ding ding ding! That’s what I’m getting at.
They can eliminate a lot of it though. There is unneeded kvetching over keeping some of these guys when there really shouldn’t be.
The NL situation got a lot more interesting just in the last week as the NLE tightened up. Could have 4 teams buying in that division now when it seemed like maybe just the Mets would be buying.
But the NLC prob has just 1 team buying. And out west, I’m not sure how aggressive those 3 teams need to be as all look like playoff locks barring one of them crashing.
The Mets situation is interesting but with a bunch of injured players expected to return in the 2nd half, they just need some regression in the lineup tho there hasn’t been any indications one is coming. So, their targets are most likely a SPer – tho if Cookie and Thor make it back, the rotation is prob set – and another arm in the pen. Taylor Rogers is an ideal fit since they are light on LHers.
Syndergaard is out til September according to Sandy and might not be able to be stretched out and who knows when Carrasco is back and now Peterson is hurt so they’ll get a starter
I would imagine that they are monitoring about 15-20 different starters right now. Alex Cobb, Jon Gray, Danny Duffy, Andrew Heaney, Merrill Kelly, Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana, Mike Minor…Kyle Gibson and Matt Boyd, too, although I’m really not buying that what they’re doing now is what they’re going to do the next year and a half.
what who is going to do the next year and a half?
Boyd and Gibson. They’re not going to keep pitching like this; those homer rates are going to return to normal next year most likely.
They just need someone to pick up innings… a competent 5th starter who can go to the pen when everyone gets healthy.
To be fair, Peterson getting hurt and replaced with some random guy from Rockaway is probably a lateral move…
Peterson has been more good than not.
We must be talking about different David Petersons?
Well for whatever it’s worth he’s sitting on a 95 xFIP-, which I’m guessing might be pretty decent for a guy who was projected to be a #4/5 starter only until Syndergaard returned (which was supposed to be much sooner).
That said, his ERA- and FIP- are a bit less pretty… but lets take a look at that:
ERA-: 146
FIP-: 118
xFIP-: 95
For simplicity, lets compare the xFIP- to the average of ERA- and FIP-, so 95 vs 132
Looking in recent years for SPs who had a first half (min 50 IP) 90-100 xFIP- and an average ERA- + FIP- that was 25%+ higher:
2018 Domingo German
2018 Marcus Stroman
2018 Brandon McCarthy
2017 Tyler Anderson
2017 Vince Velasquez
2017 Michael Pineda
2016 Nathan Eovaldi
2016 Ivan Nova
2016 Drew Smyly
2016 Tyler Duffey
2015 CC Sabathia
2015 Rubby de la Rosa
2015 Stephen Strasburg
… so how did these guys generally do in their second halves? Will follow-up later.
Note #1 — Michael Pineda doesn’t belong… must have misread his first half xFIP- as 92, it was 82.
In the second half, an unweighted average had this group, Pineda excluded, at :
ERA- 104
FIP- 102
xFIP- 105
So, essentially the same and roughly ~2% above the mid-point of their first half FIP- and xFIP- (which would be ~108 for Peterson; below average but probably pretty close to a mid-to-low-end #4).
Do it as a weighted average and the three stats average out to 97/100/99 and now it is a couple of percent lower than that midpoint, which would be ~103 for Peterson (maybe more like a mid-to-high-end #4)
State of the Mock.
Near death.
“We want Kiley! We want Kiley!”
Plan for the next one on Monday.
KEVIN, The Rockies GM office is in disarray, with several assistants leaving )or fired?). Have you given any thoughts to applying for a position there?
I’m not sure why he would even consider it. Uproot your life for an objectively unstable workplace? That sounds like a bad idea.
Just what Dave Cameron said repeatedly, while also taking frequent shots at AJ Preller. And now today …
Not that I have any reason at all to doubt Kevin’s statements, mind you. Just sayin’.
If you’re going to accept an offer to be a GM in the Mile High City, make sure the team puts a picture of you on its helmet.
Just neighing.
I think there’s a big difference between going to work for a guy who’s been a GM for a couple of years versus a guy who has the interim tag and where literally everyone is either quitting or getting fired.
Absolutely nobody is taking a job there until a new GM is hired.
“I’d rather be a blogger,” is a legitimate response in this situation.
It’s not like the other franchises in town are in great shape either! KSE is…. KSE. The Broncos current mess is a little better than the Rockies but in all likelihood about to get a heck of a lot worse. At least the weather is nice, and the weed is legal. This is all from the perspective of a back office guy, so lateral mobility between sports is a thing, but if it were a thing in front offices (and hey maybe it is it’s been a decade), you wouldn’t want to work for KSE or the Broncos either.
Not a one.
Their reputation is horrible my goodness.
The Giants pitching, especially starting pitching, looks really fragile. Alex Wood is like duct-taping a spoiler to your Civic–this looks great, this feels great, you really shouldn’t bank on it lasting long. Bringing in a mid-rotation arm would help a lot and bumping Wood or Long to the bullpen would help keep Kapler from Kaplering things up in the late innings.
ETA: But also, I think every baseball-watching human would be absolutely delighted were the Giants to pick up Taylor Rogers.
Padres really have only 2 starters they can rely on. Snell has struggled bad and Paddack is just a fine number 4 starter. They could use a playoff caliber starter. Also they’ve seemingly soured on Hosmer finally and are rumored to be going after high level OFers. A Gibson + Gallo blockbuster would make some sense but obviously would be costly. Berrios another obvious fit
While I agree on the Gibson+ Gallo, that would essentially be pushing Myers to the bench, as Gallo is a better player and a GG level defender. Myers is coming off a 154wRC+ , and still has been above a league average player. Maybe they could move Myers to first?
How much would the Padres be willing to part with to add Hosmer to a Gibson+Gallo deal? Would they even consider giving up Abrams, or if not, would they entertain giving up a package of Hassell and some high-upside lottery pick prospects?
I have felt that Myers has been the best 1B option for the Padres for a long time now (even before Dave Cameron joined the organization). One extra reason it would behoove them to move Hosmer.
Hosmer is going nowhere, Rangers have no reason to want him unless padres attach CJ which won’t happen. CJ is off the table for everyone that isn’t a elite player with multiple years of control left (those don’t become available)
I could see Bryan Reynolds for Hosmer/Ambrams working and it’d be fun to see Abrams and Hayes own the Pirates left side for the next 5+ years.
Would Pgh pick up all of the Hosmer tab? Or would it be split? Either way, SD would likely have to add something to the plate.
Pittsburgh has the room to add Hosmer’s salary. But the Pirates would want more than Abrams for Reynolds. Reyonds is just beginning his peak sea6sons, is on pace for a 6 to 7 fWAR season, is inexpensive for a player of his kind and is not yet on the cusp of free agency. So, the Padres would need to add at least another valuable prospect to cover the risk differential that exists between Reynolds and the prospects the Padres trade for him.
As for Hosmer, the Pirates would consider him a salary dump for which the Padres would need to pay in additional prospects. Whether the Padres would want to pay that kind of price for Reynolds and salary relief is one difficult to answer question. Another such question: Would the Pirates trade Reynolds? Or, is Reynolds an untouchable player for them?
Myers has played first in past my thinking is it would be a Myers/Hosmer split in 1B with some sprinkles in days off for the OFers with Myers
Hosmer has 4 more years to go…? That’s going to be a problem.
This is sad for all the talent they shipped out in order to build their rotation… Where is Gore btw..?
Gore has the yips last I heard… Which, for a pitcher isn’t a good thing.
“Milwaukee is easy and straight forward to deal with”
If I’m a Brewers fan, should I be happy or sad about this?
If nothing else, be happy that your team isn’t encumbered by a front-office that’s tied up by bureaucracy/ownership committees/owners who think they’re GMs/high-level dysfunction.
Now if they are easy, straightforward patsies, that’s a whole different story 😉
There’s a trade that KG had a hand in that seems to indicate that Brewers fans should be happy about that.
DON’T REMIND ME.
I think that’s something to be happy about. Better than the opposite, at least. Things are more likely to get done when dealing with the Brewers, it seems.
Just depends on what’s going back and forth.
I see only two trades and a contract purchase between Milwaukee and Houston in the past 10 years.
1. Fiers and Carlos Gomez for Hader, Houser, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana
2. Cy Sneed for Villar
3. purchased Tyler Heineman’s contract from the Astros
could be that KG’s analysis is informed more from his and Stearns time together in Houson. Or Stearns kept good relations with his old team.
It’s a good thing. At the very least, teams would deal with Milwaukee first. No one wants to deal with a pain in the ass or a bunch of bureaucracy. You call the people you like to work with first & deal with the others only when necessary.
Really like the insight these articles provide into a front-office’s habits. How would you describe the approach of Mo/Girsch in the Cardinals office?
Astros couldn’t hack talking to the Cardinals
I was going to post something like this. I’d love to know more about the front office, but it seems as if they were the only team in this series not to get a blurb about their tendencies. Bummer!
“The Nationals are not heavy on analytics, which can create easier trade opportunities due to evaluation asymmetry.”
At first I read this as a subtle burn–not that Kevin meant it as such, but “not heavy on analytics” is hard to see as a good thing. Yet on second thought, given that Mike Rizzo (a former scout) has won most of the trades he’s been a part of, I guess I shouldn’t be too critical of the front office. Most of the losses were fairly minor trades of relievers who ended up having a good season or two elsewhere (Felipe Rivero, Blake Treinen, Austin Adams, etc), and only big loss–Eaton for Giolito/Manning/Lopez–was actually somewhat supported by analytics (as in Eaton’s excellent defensive metrics, Giolito’s consistently poor peripherals) and mostly torpedoed by Eaton’s knee injury. Also flags fly forever, so hard to feel too terrible about it.
Not a subtle burn at all. More than one way to skin a cat, and Mike’s impressive track record speaks for itself.
I didn’t see any burn whatsoever. If you have a strong scouting background, and you can build an excellent infrastructure that zigs (eyes/ears/boots on the ground) when the rest of the world is zagging (analytics-heavy), you may be positioned to take advantage of an emerging market inefficiency.
Nationals, the Smart Beta of baseball
While Scott’s the new gm Sandy is in charge and he was very aggressive in 2015 and you know Cohen is wanna gonna push his chips in
Haven’t stirred up the hornet’s nest in years, so what the heck …
You’ve heard more about Bauer than’s made the papers? As in, that Baseball’s first look has found something further to explore? Or just hold that any such accusation requires a with-pay suspensi- oops, I should say “adjudication”, prior to its being looked at?
(myself, I would counsel any MLB player ‘no more rough sex with groupies regardless’, so no sympathy for Bauer even if he’s 100% truthful and the lady 0% so; just wondering if this site is still ‘initially presumed guilty’ or if you have heard anything)
Lol, I’m not into the gory details of what happened. But, have to admit my first thoughts when I heard the allegations was “how stupid can you be to do THAT when you’re a celebrity, especially one who just got the largest annual salary in MLB history.”
None of Urias, Chapman, Osuna were convicted with a criminal offence and they all got suspended – and what he is accused of his pretty serious – so he is going to be suspended at some point.
And frankly, if even 10% of the allegations are true, he deserves jail time.
Yep. The modal outcome here is (1) He manages to avoid prison because it’s a hard case to prove and he can afford the best lawyer in town, and (2) he gets suspended for somewhere between 30 and 90 games.
Same goes for Marcell Ozuna.
What is an 0-3 player? I’ve never heard that term before
Pretty sure it refers to an MLB ready player with all three options remaining.
Francisco Lindor, since he usually walks once too.
Goddamn Carter, SAVAGE.
Love it.
Probably refers to service time.
It means guys in the Show but are still in their pre-arbitration years.
Yep, in other words, zero to three years of service time.
Perfect summary of the Cubs’ behavior, ftr they’ll be buying maybe selling reliever depth (Brothers for example)
Any reason you didn’t mention Adam Frazier in the Pirates blurb? He’s clearly their best trade asset.
You are Sooooooo wrong re Tevor Bauer. How about the American principal of innocent until PROVEN guilty..
How about the MLB existing rule in place, one that has been collectively bargained, that allows for a player to be put on administrative leave when a credible allegation is made.
Key word is credible. The ink i read says she admits all consenting…..i have big problem with this witch hunt with NO verifiable facts. And to take a person’s livelihood away because of he said/she said is not acceptable. I ask: would this standard be applied to the run of the mill factory worker?
If anything, athletes (particularly talented ones) get a crazy amount of leeway. When you’re a replaceable cog, you’re shit canned fast.
Antonio Brown doing something batshit crazy….again? Hey let’s sign that guy. Let’s give Richie Incognito a call too… Maybe Tony Larissa or Jason Kidd can coach ’em up.
Why should a player be put on administrative leave just because someone makes an accusation against them? If that player is completely innocent, there is no reason they should miss any time. People with money are often targets of false accusations.
For their own good? It is some very serious allegations – which were already credible enough to get a restraining order against him (I have no idea how credible they need to be in order for this to happen) – and if I were an innocent person accused of what he has been accused of doing, I certainly couldn’t focus on my job while this was hanging over me.
I do think the league really needs to step up and put him on leave, things like this can’t be left to the teams. A few years ago in the EPL, a Sunderland player was accused (and later found guilty) of having sex with an underage teenager. The team continued to play him – he was their best player, and they would almost have certainly have been relegated without him – they avoided relegation that season, and got their millions in TV deal money that goes with being in the EPL. Had it been a different player – say one of their players who was earning far more than their ability (and Sunderland have a fair few of these – it explains their recent struggles) they would have been delighted to get rid of them without paying the rest of their contract.
The allegations might be serious, but again, anyone can make serious allegations. If what the lawyer stated is accurate (not like lawyers are very trustworthy) that they have everything in text from her that they say and it was all on the up and up, then he did nothing wrong and shouldn’t even have to deal with this.
Do other teams view the recent STL moves as huge blunders or bad luck? I might quibble with a couple of those examples.
Voit has crushed it in New York, but the Cardinals did get relief ace Gallegos in return; I shudder to imagine what the Cards’ pen would look like without him. Any team could have picked Adolis up from waivers, so that’s more of a compliment to Garcia for making the best of his playing time than it is an indictment of any front office. Liberatore is the other half of the Arozarena deal, and he’s a 50 FV prospect who hasn’t had a chance to show his worth in the majors yet. I also think people are putting too much stock into his historic run last year — sure, it was incredible, but there’s a much larger sample of a left fielder with an xwOBA under .300.
Honestly, I’d be way more critical of their trades for established major leaguers. Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara were quite a lot to give up for two decent Ozuna seasons, and Carson Kelly and Luke Weaver for one season of an aging first baseman is one of the worst trades in recent history.
You forgot to mention that between injuries and under-performance for Voit this year, the Voit/Gallegos trade looks even better for the Cardinals now.
Meanwhile, the Ozuna trade worked for both sides, as it at least helped the Cardinals make the play-offs in 2019 and allowed them to get a comp. pick in last year’s draft.
You have to also consider that trading for Goldschmidt allowed the Cardinals to extend him, as well. He’s been somewhat disappointing so far, but the Cardinals wouldn’t have made the play-offs the last two years without him, and he’s still an above-average player. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have no use for Kelly, anyway.
They got hammered on the Ozuna trade, and to a lesser extent the Goldschmidt trade. But that’s not terribly surprising, and wouldn’t be surprising on any other team. You lose about as many trades as you win. The Voit trade was clearly a win-win.
They did not get hammered in the Ozuna trade. They got 2 pretty good years of Ozuna (including a play-off appearance) plus a comp. pick for 4 prospects, 2 of whom have gotten off to a pretty good start in the Majors so far. They by no means won the deal, but both teams got at least decent value out of it, and none of the prospects have become stars yet.
Love the front office comments. Thank you so much for including your experience there.
The results of the Luke Voit trade are no longer what they were once thought to be. Voit is not having a good year, while Gallegos has become one of the best setup men in baseball and may be a future All-Star closer.
If the Cardinals do end up selling, who do they sell? Carpenter and Martinez have little to no trade value, while Molina and Wainwright aren’t going anywhere. That leaves just Kim and Miller as I see it.
I’m sure a few teams would take Miller, but he isn’t any good anymore, so it wouldn’t net more than a fringe guy. An analytical team might give Carpenter a shot for a fringe guy (he’s the perfect guy to go to another team and rake with his Statcast numbers).
I’m with you, though. There isn’t much to turn over.
“they (Cubs) will likely focus on 0-3 players should they look to kick-start their re-tooling.”
What are 0-3 players?