Stephen Strasburg: Game Four Relief Ace?

With a 4-1 victory over the Giants last night, the Nationals breathed a little life into their hopes of advancing past the NDLS. Tonight, they look to win another game in San Francisco, and the pitching match-up certainly looks to be in their favor, as Gio Gonzalez takes on Ryan Vogelsong. Gonzalez, however, is not exactly known for pitching deep into ballgames, which brings up an interesting question for Matt Williams tonight: would he be willing to use Stephen Strasburg as his first option out of the bullpen?

Due to the scheduled off-days both on Sunday and tomorrow, the Nationals have the option of starting either Strasburg or Jordan Zimmermann on full rest in a potential Game Five. Zimmermann shut down the Giants on Saturday, finishing one out shy of a complete game, and was actually the team’s best starter this season, even though he doesn’t have Strasburg’s raw stuff. The availability of Zimmmermann to start Game Five creates an interesting option for the Nationals to use Strasburg out of the bullpen in order to give the team their best chance of getting to that game, and Matt Williams said yesterday that Strasburg was available in relief in an “extreme emergency” situation.

Interestingly, Kilgore also wrote this in a separate piece:

If the Nationals can force a Game 5, they would have not only the momentum, but also the option to pitch Strasburg or Zimmermann. They could start Strasburg and bring Zimmermann out of the bullpen, even, because Zimmermann has the experience and Strasburg’s long delivery could give him problems out of the bullpen — he needs his routine to get a feel for his motion.

Strasburg’s need for a significant warm-up period before entering a game makes him a bit of a poor choice for an “extreme emergency” relief role, given that you generally can’t see those situations coming that far in advance. If Strasburg really needs ample time to get loose and comfortable in the bullpen, then the best way to use him out of the pen would be in a pre-planned relief role, where he can start warming up at a set time, without any worry that he might need to rush his preparation because the pitcher on the mound got into trouble.

Tonight seemingly provides a perfect opportunity for a pre-planned relief stint for Strasburg. Gonzalez is not known for pitching deep into games, and his command issues make it unlikely that he’ll be able to get more than 15 outs tonight. The Nationals bullpen is likely going to need to cover four innings of work tonight, and their best chance to keep the game competitive might just be to have Strasburg cover two of those four innings.

There are two other benefits to having Strasburg pitch in relief tonight, versus having him and Zimmermann tag-team for Game Five on Thursday. For one, Gonzalez is a lefty starter, so Strasburg will enter a game in which a line-up has been set against an opposite-handed pitcher, so they may be able to take a larger advantage of platoon effects. And, while you don’t want to base too much of your first round strategy on potential second round match-ups, having Strasburg pitch in relief tonight shouldn’t preclude him from starting a potential Game 1 in the NLCS, if the Nationals do indeed advance.

If you use both Strasburg and Zimmermann in Game Five, then you’re likely handing Doug Fister in Game One, and depending on how both pitched on Thursday, maybe even Gio Gonzalez in Game Two, since Sunday’s game would come on just two days rest for both of the Nationals top two starters. Using Strasburg today, the Nationals would either have the option of starting Strasburg in Game One of the NLCS on Saturday on three days rest — after having thrown just ~30-40 pitches, in all likelihood, with three days rest before that outing — or in Game Two on his full four days of rest.

Yes, the focus should be on beating the Giants in the next two games, given that the Nationals season is over if they lose either of the next two games, but it seems like there are some real benefits to using Strasburg today rather than on Thursday. In addition to what we’ve mentioned, both Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen pitched in yesterday’s game, so it’s less likely that Williams would want to push either with aggressive usage to help cover the innings that Gonzalez doesn’t pitch. On Thursday, it’s entirely realistic to think that the team could get six or even seven innings from Zimmermann, and then just hand the ball to their two best relievers, bypassing the middle guys in between. With the off day tomorrow, Clippard could even be asked to pitch multiple innings, which almost certainly wouldn’t be the case today.

The team’s best chance to win two games is likely to maximize the percentage of innings thrown by Zimmermann, Strasburg, Clippard, and Storen. Holding both starters back for Game Five means that any innings thrown by one of those four are likely coming from the pool that could be pitched by one of the other four, while using Strasburg in relief today could allow the Nationals to reallocate innings that might otherwise go to Craig Stammen, Matt Thornton, or Aaron Barrett.

Gonzalez is a good pitcher in his own right, but given the factors at play, it seems like the Nationals best plan might be to tell Strasburg before the game that he’s going to start getting ready in the third inning. Let him go through a full, normal pre-game routine in the bullpen, and have him ready to pitch the start of the sixth. Gonzalez-Strasburg-Clippard-Storen today, with Zimmermann-Clippard-Storen on Thursday. Things can and do go wrong, but using these five pitchers to pitch as much of the final two games as possible seems like it might give the Nationals their best chance to come back and win the series.