Stephen Strasburg: Game Four Relief Ace?
With a 4-1 victory over the Giants last night, the Nationals breathed a little life into their hopes of advancing past the NDLS. Tonight, they look to win another game in San Francisco, and the pitching match-up certainly looks to be in their favor, as Gio Gonzalez takes on Ryan Vogelsong. Gonzalez, however, is not exactly known for pitching deep into ballgames, which brings up an interesting question for Matt Williams tonight: would he be willing to use Stephen Strasburg as his first option out of the bullpen?
Due to the scheduled off-days both on Sunday and tomorrow, the Nationals have the option of starting either Strasburg or Jordan Zimmermann on full rest in a potential Game Five. Zimmermann shut down the Giants on Saturday, finishing one out shy of a complete game, and was actually the team’s best starter this season, even though he doesn’t have Strasburg’s raw stuff. The availability of Zimmmermann to start Game Five creates an interesting option for the Nationals to use Strasburg out of the bullpen in order to give the team their best chance of getting to that game, and Matt Williams said yesterday that Strasburg was available in relief in an “extreme emergency” situation.
Interestingly, Kilgore also wrote this in a separate piece:
If the Nationals can force a Game 5, they would have not only the momentum, but also the option to pitch Strasburg or Zimmermann. They could start Strasburg and bring Zimmermann out of the bullpen, even, because Zimmermann has the experience and Strasburg’s long delivery could give him problems out of the bullpen — he needs his routine to get a feel for his motion.
Strasburg’s need for a significant warm-up period before entering a game makes him a bit of a poor choice for an “extreme emergency” relief role, given that you generally can’t see those situations coming that far in advance. If Strasburg really needs ample time to get loose and comfortable in the bullpen, then the best way to use him out of the pen would be in a pre-planned relief role, where he can start warming up at a set time, without any worry that he might need to rush his preparation because the pitcher on the mound got into trouble.
Tonight seemingly provides a perfect opportunity for a pre-planned relief stint for Strasburg. Gonzalez is not known for pitching deep into games, and his command issues make it unlikely that he’ll be able to get more than 15 outs tonight. The Nationals bullpen is likely going to need to cover four innings of work tonight, and their best chance to keep the game competitive might just be to have Strasburg cover two of those four innings.
There are two other benefits to having Strasburg pitch in relief tonight, versus having him and Zimmermann tag-team for Game Five on Thursday. For one, Gonzalez is a lefty starter, so Strasburg will enter a game in which a line-up has been set against an opposite-handed pitcher, so they may be able to take a larger advantage of platoon effects. And, while you don’t want to base too much of your first round strategy on potential second round match-ups, having Strasburg pitch in relief tonight shouldn’t preclude him from starting a potential Game 1 in the NLCS, if the Nationals do indeed advance.
If you use both Strasburg and Zimmermann in Game Five, then you’re likely handing Doug Fister in Game One, and depending on how both pitched on Thursday, maybe even Gio Gonzalez in Game Two, since Sunday’s game would come on just two days rest for both of the Nationals top two starters. Using Strasburg today, the Nationals would either have the option of starting Strasburg in Game One of the NLCS on Saturday on three days rest — after having thrown just ~30-40 pitches, in all likelihood, with three days rest before that outing — or in Game Two on his full four days of rest.
Yes, the focus should be on beating the Giants in the next two games, given that the Nationals season is over if they lose either of the next two games, but it seems like there are some real benefits to using Strasburg today rather than on Thursday. In addition to what we’ve mentioned, both Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen pitched in yesterday’s game, so it’s less likely that Williams would want to push either with aggressive usage to help cover the innings that Gonzalez doesn’t pitch. On Thursday, it’s entirely realistic to think that the team could get six or even seven innings from Zimmermann, and then just hand the ball to their two best relievers, bypassing the middle guys in between. With the off day tomorrow, Clippard could even be asked to pitch multiple innings, which almost certainly wouldn’t be the case today.
The team’s best chance to win two games is likely to maximize the percentage of innings thrown by Zimmermann, Strasburg, Clippard, and Storen. Holding both starters back for Game Five means that any innings thrown by one of those four are likely coming from the pool that could be pitched by one of the other four, while using Strasburg in relief today could allow the Nationals to reallocate innings that might otherwise go to Craig Stammen, Matt Thornton, or Aaron Barrett.
Gonzalez is a good pitcher in his own right, but given the factors at play, it seems like the Nationals best plan might be to tell Strasburg before the game that he’s going to start getting ready in the third inning. Let him go through a full, normal pre-game routine in the bullpen, and have him ready to pitch the start of the sixth. Gonzalez-Strasburg-Clippard-Storen today, with Zimmermann-Clippard-Storen on Thursday. Things can and do go wrong, but using these five pitchers to pitch as much of the final two games as possible seems like it might give the Nationals their best chance to come back and win the series.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Tandem starting? Makes sense to me.
Why would any team want to use their best pitchers as much as possible? There is an established pattern for who pitches when and everyone understands why this is. It will not change just because it is wrong, you don’t mess with tradition. Baseball is all about tradition. Starters start. Relievers relieve. Closers close. To use them in any other situation would be insanity!
I really hope Matt Williams reads this….
He won’t be caught dead in here
For that to happen, we’d probably need to change the title to “Veterans are the best, Dusty Baker was right.”
Why not just start Strasburg?
he’s on short rest
Yeah, the alternative to this is to go Strasburg 1-2, Gonzalez 3-7ish. Not sure if there’s an advantage of one over the other? I guess if the offense jumps all over the Giants you’d rather not pitch Strasburg, and this way you have the option.
It worked for the Diamondbacks in Game 7 of the WS in 2001 with Johnson and Schilling.
But take a look at their stats that year. Now compare. Yeah.
I retract this snarky comment. The comparison is legit.
Jordan Zimmermann’s relief appearance in the 2012 NLDS was one of the finest moments in Nationals history. 12 pitches, 9 strikes (2 whiffs), 3 batters faced, 3 Ks.
Edwin Jackson’s subsequent relief appearance in the same series, however…
An inning of JZ would keep him lined up for Saturday or Sunday and could be the 6th inning bridge the better parts of the bullpen. Then you are left with Strasburg starting game 5. There are worse things.
Matt Williams is a by the numbers manager he doesn’t have the imagination to pull off a pitchers “beard” like that. He would probably consider it bad sportsmanship, and against the unwritten rules. Every player has a role, starters start, relief pitchers relieve.
It’s not against unwritten rules when we’re talking post-season. Teams have been doing that forever. In fact, the last time DC won a World Series, Walter Johnson pitched 4 scoreless innings in relief — 1924. And, as noted above, Diamondbacks in game 7 of WS in 2001.
(I meant to write: Walter Johnson pitched 4 scoreless innings in relief in the deciding Game 7 of 1924)
Not to mention the NLCS starts Saturday, so if they used him for an inning or two today he’s probably still OK to start Game 1 should they manage to advance.
He’s so “by the book” that he had his catcher bunt with two strikes, a catcher who had not been asked to bunt since 2011.
Ramos has done nothing but hit ground balls or struck out the entire series. I don’t think it was outside the box to ask him either to strike out or put the ball in play in a position where it would advance the runners. I wouldn’t consider bunting not “by the book”
I wrote the book!
…but bunts are gritty@!
Matt Williams is a Paint-by-numbers manager. Which isn’t a bad thing for the Nationals, it’s kind of what they need. The only problem is that some of his numbers are off. Jerry Blevins should never pitch to righties. Bryce Harper should never bat 6th again, ever. Denard Span, outside of one very hot month, shouldn’t bat leadoff and Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann are both better than Stephen Strasburg.
Brad Ausmus wants to know if Strasburg is a 6th or 7th inning guy?
He has the make up (?) of a 7th inning guy.
But only to begin the 7th inning. He can’t be used when men are on base part way through an inning. That’s not his “role”. His make up is not equipped to handle other roles.
Tanner Roark is Gio’s handcuff. That’s pretty much been the plan all along. I’d be surprised if Strasburg gets the call in anything but another long extra innings scenario.
I go back and forth about Strasburg v. Roark as Gio’s handcuff. In the role of the last pitcher out of the pen in extra innings, I kind don’t see Strasburg as being able to get loose on a quick basis, so that makes Roark better as the guy held back. (I’m sure Brandon Belt would agree ;-)) I think the advantage of using Strasburg as the middle inning follow-on reliever is it would be closer to his long toss cycle before the game and closer to his normal, planned warm up. Furthermore, if something is off, there are completely acceptable plan B types in Stammen and Roark. I think I have to trust Williams and McCatty on this decision. Stras may not be the starter who can adjust his routine so easily.
I personally like the idea of using Strasburg (or Zim) in relief tonight. In fact, I like the idea of using one of them (or Roark) to pitch the first 2-3 innings and then hand it off to Gio even more. I jut don’t think either one of those things is going to happen.
Williams will follow a very by-the-book approach, with at most a quick hook should trouble arise. If Gio blows up then Roark will come in early. If Gio is effective then we’ll see Roark in the 5th or 6th inning.
Roark is going to be the first long relief option for the Nationals tonight if Gio wobbles. Not because MW is a “by the book manager” who lacks imagination. Roark is the first option because it’s the right call. Is Strasburg better? I’m willing to stipulate yes, although it’s close – Strasburg certainly has better overall stuff, but Roark has been excellent since coming up last season and his excellent numbers can no longer be discounted as a fluke. Strasburg is certainly more likely to get a key strikeout.
But even stipulating that Strasburg is better all other things being equal – things aren’t equal. I’m not aware that Strasburg has ever in his life come out of the bullpen; he certainly hasn’t done it as a professional. He would be out of his routine and comfort zone, not knowing how long it takes him to be ready, what being ready feels like in a relief situation, and without being able to have hours to ready himself knowing that he’s going to pitch. I don’t assume that he couldn’t do it, but why have him do it when Roark is a very good option who is familiar with the role? Strasburg should absolutely be available tonight (as should Peavy and Lincecum for the Giants). At need, Hudson and Zimmermann could rematch on Thursday on four days of rest, so it’s basically all hands on deck tonight.
Gio is going at least seven tonight and will be in cruise control after Vogelsong gets knocked out before the third is over…
This series is going back to DC for a Game 5… who wins that game is unclear, but tonight the Nats should roll.
Gio lasted into the 7th in only 8 of his 27 starts this year – what makes you so sure? He’s a talented pitcher, but pretty erratic from what I’ve seen. I’d have a quick hook if I’m Williams – and yes Strasburg makes a lot of sense if you have to pull Gio early.
Thanks for freeing up my evening. I really didn’t want to have to watch this game anyway.
That would be something considering both teams have done almost nothing at the plate so far, it’s a pretty fantastic crystal ball you have there.
Wouldn’t it be odd if this game was decided by Lincecum and Strasburg in the late innings.
Oh my word please yes
Only thing I’d add is that the reason it may happen is it gets Williams out of a tricky spot if there is a Game 5. He hates showing a lack of faith in his guys, and would have a really hard time taking a Game 5 ball away from Strasburg (if he hasn’t taken the ball away from Storen…), even though the best chance for the Nats to win such a game if it happens (gotta keep qualifying it…if! Hopefully!) is with Zimmermann going out and doing his thing. Using Strasburg today takes that decision out of play and allows for a Zimmermann start in a (hopefully!) game 5 without damaging Strasburg’s confidence.
David above is right, though, that Roark is Gio’s handcuff, but there is an easy out from that because that plan did not envision Roark having to pitch in Game 2.
Why so sure Gio goes only five? He has gone 6-7 each of his last seven starts.
This will make some compelling theater with the location of the bullpens at AT&T park. Particularly if Gio is cruising in the third.
Just tell Strasburg to be ready for the 5th.
Would it not make more sense to just start Strasburg and let him pitch the first two innings? It would give him his usual warm up routine and would allow Gio to pitch up to 7 innings starting with the 3rd if he happens to be lights out. You also might get the added advantage of getting to pinch hit for Strasburg in the top of the 3rd depending on where you are in the lineup.
As a Braves fan I hate coming up with ideas to help the nationals win, but man I hate watching the giants and cardinals win every year even more.
NLDS not NDLS
National Dyslexic League Series
Strasburg will totally be on board with this!!! He is as mentally flexible as the inner hull of a battleship. Warming him up is merely the excuse not to pitch him in Game 5. His Game 1 start did not instill confidence in Williams, or any watching.
He didn’t exactly do badly – not his best start, but 2 runs, 1 earned is nothing to complain about.
Strasburg has always been graded on a curve. If he doesn’t pitch a perfect game, people will find something to complain about. Zimmermann was better than Strasburg in their respective starts, though, and Zimmermann had better results this year by both FIP and ERA. Strasburg had a better (and elite) K%-BB%, though, which is the most predictive pitching stat. Either is a fine choice for Game 5, really.
That’s what most people miss in these discussions: if the Nats don’t win today, there is no game 5. So they need to pull out the stops, like using Strasburg in relief, which is what Bochy did in game 2, throwing out potential game 4 starter Petit to throw a beautiful start in relief in extra innings.
And which Williams didn’t, in his interview, he stated that he treated game 2 like a regular season game, starter in trouble, bring in the closer. He didn’t take into account whether the pitcher was actually in trouble or not, is that why he walked Panik? Or because Panik is a good hitter who gets a lot of walks? No, it was starter gave up a walk, never mind that he just set down, like 20 batters in a row, go to the closer.
About bringing in starters to relieve, that’s what Bochy did in game 6 of the Phillies series in 2010, brought in a bunch of his starters to seal the win. And it wasn’t even an elimination game, he did it in order to not have to play a game 7. He understands the urgency of winning each and every game in the playoffs, he knows when he’s got the lead or at least a tie, that’s all he cares about, getting or sealing that win, so he goes all in to get that win.
That’s why he has a great career record in one-run games, he knows how to seal the deal and get that win, better than any manager during his time. He has been among the leaders in games above .500 in one-run games in around 40% of his seasons as manager, way above any other manager. He has averaged roughly 4 games above .500 in one-run games in his career, and when I checked the null hypothesis of .500, his winning percentage is statistically significantly above .500, the null hypothesis is false.
there is a real question about whether Strasburg can handle the role, which is why some of the Nats followers are the ones most questioning this. I know it is hard to pick up the up and down nature of a guy with Strasburg’s impressive peripherals, but he seems the least flexible of the starters in terms of pitching conditions and the least suited for unusual use. Also, the alternatives (Roark or even Jordan Zimmermann for an inning on his normal throwing day) aren’t weak. Fangraphs and Dave have been all over Roark’s career accomplishments, notwithstanding Saturday’s 18th. It should not be seen as Strasburg or conventional bullpen use with lesser middle relievers. It should be seen as choosing among the quality starters available and who is most suited for the role.
Mind you, I could see Stras doing this, but it is not a clearcut call.
I think you are underestimating Strasburgs mettel. He grew up in San Diego…and learned to pitch in every kind of climate from 68-72 degrees…:)
Williams’s decision was probably the correct one – Panik, who doesn’t exactly have a ton of power, got home run distance on a close foul ball on the only strike Zimmermann threw that at-bat. Posey, the team’s best hitter and an MVP, was up next – and he’d hit the ball hard in his previous at-bat, just fortunately right at someone. Getting a fresh pitcher instead of a tiring one was the higher-percentage move.
The only thing I can fault him for is not having a lefty ready for Sandoval, but I’m reasonably sure no manager – Bochy included – takes out their closer for a LOOGY for the last out.
The goal isn’t to get to a Game 5 it is to advance to the next series. Extreme example but which do you prefer?
100% chance to win game 4 and 50% chance to win game 5 or
80% chance to win game 4 and 80% chance to win game 5
Scenario 1 yields 50% to win the series and scenario 2 yields 64%. The goal is to win the series.
It’s all conjecture anyway, the Giants are going to win tonight and move on.
If they don’t I will name my next Child Wins Above Replacement.
…so would you say the full name or CWAR…it kind of has a ring in a way?…like Cwar…one of the rare(to my limited knowledge) soft Eastern European names like names maybe?
“Gonzalez is a lefty starter, so Strasburg will enter a game in which a line-up has been set against an opposite-handed pitcher”
FYI the lineups have been announced and the only change Bochy made besides flipping Pence and Sandoval in the 4-5 spots is to start Juan Perez instead of Ishikawa in left. So if the Nationals are thinking in terms of platoon advantages they’d actually be better off riding Gonzalez as long as they can since it will still be a lefty heavy lineup with Blanco, Panik, Belt and Crawford.
They should should shut Strasburg down, rest him for next year to ensure a multi-year dynasty!
Did someone call us? Oh, Hubris! So good to see you. And such a surprise that you’re found in Washington DC.
From the press conference, it is clear that Matt Williams doesn’t think he did anything wrong.
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Matt%20Williams%22&src=tren
Apparently Matt Williams didn’t realize a righty was due up in the inning? Cause none were ready for Posey despite the “plan”.
How about instead we pitch none of these players and just hope the Giants surrender before the game ends?