Still on the Board: Yovani Gallardo

Phase II of the 2015-16 free agent and trade markets has begun, with Alex Gordon re-upping with the Royals, and the rumor mill is again beginning to churn after a brief holiday-related respite. The elite and upper-middle-class arms have already secured their positions for 2016 and beyond, but some of the other middle class arms remain on the market.

The three free agent pitchers who are subject to draft pick compensation but are still likely to sign long-term deals are lefty Wei-Yin Chen and righties Yovani Gallardo and Ian Kennedy. At this stage in the game, it is likely that all three will need to settle for terms below consensus projections. Earlier this week, we took a look at Chen’s situation; today, we’ll dig a little bit deeper into Yovani Gallardo’s true value.

I was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers scouting staff when Gallardo was selected in the second round of the 2004 draft. In fact, that was my first year in the draft room. As the Northeast Scouting Supervisor, that year was quite an experience, as one of the prospects from my region, right-handed pitcher Mark Rogers, was our first-round pick, drafted fifth overall. While not squarely in the mix for our first-round selection, there was another high school righty who we clearly considered a first rounder: a Texas kid named Yovani Gallardo.

Some of our crosscheckers raved about Gallardo in a manner not often heard in my draft room experience. His stuff was strong, and had surged immediately prior to our draft meetings. He was an athletic kid who could really hit and field his position, and perhaps most importantly, Gallardo had made it absolutely clear that he wished to forego college and sign a professional contract.

There were some complicating factors, however. First, scouting Gallardo was not an easy proposition. He pitched at Trimble Technical HS in Fort Worth, a subpar program that played weak competition. I am being very kind here; this was not your typical Texas high school power conference. His club lacked a catcher who could meet the bare minimum requirements of his position when Gallardo was on the mound.

This wasn’t the only problem. Pitch counts? Gallardo was on the mound until the game ended. Never saw it in person, but I heard reports of 170-plus-pitch outings. On a bad day for his catcher, Gallardo would cut him a break and avoid his breaking stuff altogether. Pretty tough to project a player from this environment into the major leagues.

That said, when Gallardo was still available on the second round, we quickly pounced and announced his name. He signed quickly, dominated rookie ball, and actually logged a pair of full-season Low-A starts that draft summer, at the tender age of 18. He knifed through the minors, posting a 27-13, 2.59 career mark with a glittering 457:143 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K:BB) in 396.1 innings, all as one of the youngest competitors at each level.

Each season, I compile an ordered list of top minor league starting pitcher prospects, based on performance and age relative to level and league. Gallardo qualified for my list in each of his three minor league seasons, finishing among the top 10 twice, and peaking at #3 in 2007. That is generally a harbinger of excellence at the major league level.

Gallardo spent the second half of that 2007 season in the Brewers’ major league rotation, and excelled, posting a 9-5, 3.67 mark and 101:37 K:BB in 110.1 innings. The 2008 campaign was shaping up as a year of big expectations for the Brewers, and Gallardo was right in the center of it — until, of course, he suffered a major knee injury on a collision at first base in an early season start against the Cubs.

It did turn out to be a fairly magical season in Milwaukee, as they won the NL Central largely due to the second-half efforts of newly acquired starter CC Sabathia. Gallardo quietly, diligently rehabbed, and there he was, ready to go in time for the playoffs. Alas, Gallardo’s defense abandoned him in a short, earned run-free Game 1 NLDS start against the Phillies, and he was dubiously passed over for Jeff Suppan for the Game 4 start, dominating in long relief once the starter had been touched for a crooked number.

Though he never took the next step qualitatively in Milwaukee, he was a rock in terms of workload and dependability, making 190 starts over the next six seasons as a Brewer. He also threw in 12 homers at the plate for good measure. Heading into his 2015 free agent season, the Brewers dispatched him to the Rangers for minor leaguers Marcos Diplan, Corey Knebel, and Luis Sardinas.

While Gallardo did post the best full-season ERA of his career in 2015 as a Ranger, this is not the same pitcher one envisioned as he worked his way up to the big leagues. His average fastball velocity (90.5 mph in 2015) is over 2 mph lower than his career best, and his swing-and-miss rate, once as high as 9.3%, is now in the lower ranks of MLB starters at 6.5%.

Who is Yovani Gallardo as a pitcher at this point in time, and how much should a club invest in him moving forward? Let’s utilize granular batted-ball data to examine his plate appearance outcome frequencies and production allowed by ball-in-play (BIP) type in order to get a better feel. First, the frequency data:

Right off the top, the most notable aspect of Gallardo’s frequency table is his poor K:BB profile. His K rate ranked in the 17th, and his BB rate in the 78th percentile relative to his peers. This is a very shaky foundation upon which to build. Even worse are his trends in those categories over the years. His K rate was in the 89th percentile as recently as 2012, capping a four-year stretch in which it sat in a narrow band between the 89th and 94th percentiles. Now, it sits at a career-worst level.

His BB rate percentile rank was actually a better than league average 42 in 2014, but his 2015 performance is more in line with career norms; it’s been 70 or higher in five of the last seven seasons.

Gallardo has maintained a fairly pronounced ground-ball tendency throughout his career; his grounder rate percentile rank, a career high 82 in 2015, has been 62 or higher in six of his seven qualifying seasons. Liner rates, unlike those of other BIP types, fluctuate quite significantly from year to year. Therefore, one shouldn’t get too worked up about Gallardo’s 2015 liner rate percentile rank of 70; he’s been as high as 99 and as low as 13 in that category over his career. Some positive regression should be expected moving forward.

So, we have a poor K:BB hurler, with no margin for error, who at least has a fairly pronounced grounder tendency, giving him a chance for survival. To make any further conclusions, we’ll need to incorporate BIP authority data. Adjusted relative production allowed by BIP type information serves as an excellent proxy, and will give us a good feel for Gallardo as a contact manager:

The actual production allowed on each BIP type is indicated in the batting average (AVG) and slugging (SLG) columns, and is converted to run values and compared to MLB average in the REL PRD (or Unadjusted Contact Score) column. That figure is then adjusted for context, such as home park, team defense, luck, etc., in the ADJ PRD (or Adjusted Contact Score) column. For the purposes of this exercise, sacrifice hits (SH) and flies (SF) are included as outs and hit by pitchers (HBP) are excluded from the on-base percentage (OBP) calculation. One quick note here: I have presented this type of analysis many times, but only recently have I begun to show fly ball and line drive line items both separately and combined.

Right out of the chute, it’s quite apparent that Gallardo is a fairly average contact manager overall. He allowed a bit higher than league average production on FLY/LD combined (107 Unadjusted Contact Score), but adjustment for context (to 97 FLY/LD Adjusted Contact Score) shows he was a bit unlucky in the air. Conversely, his actual production allowed on the ground (78 Unadjusted Contact Score) swung the other way when adjusted for context (108 Adjusted Contact Score). Gallardo may yield a ton of grounders, but they were hit harder than the league average.

On all BIP combined, Gallardo compiled an Adjusted Contact Score of 96, just a bit better than average. Add back the Ks and BBs, and his “tru” ERA is 4.13, obviously well above his actual ERA, but also a bit above his FIP. Only four of the 36 2015 AL ERA qualifiers had higher “tru” ERAs. To post a 3.34 ERA in 2015, Gallardo relied on a combination of good defense, fortuitous sequencing, and good, old-fashioned luck.

The 2014 and 2013 campaigns don’t tell markedly different stories, either. Gallardo posted Adjusted Contact Scores of 100 and 99, respectively, in those two campaigns, and thanks to better K rates and pitching in the NL, logged “tru” ERAs of 3.78 and 3.92. On a scale of 100, his ERA- figures in the last three seasons were 104, 101 and 101. We’re talking about a durable innings guy here; nothing more.

At this point, let me re-introduce the concept of the K/BB Contact Score Multiplier. Basically, based on a pitcher’s K and BB rates relative to the league, a multiplier is assigned and applied to a pitcher’s Contact Score to estimate his “tru”, or true-talent ERA. In 2015, Gallardo’s K rate was over a full standard deviation below league average, and his BB rate was over one-half STD lower than league average. Based on results going back to 2009, his multiplier is 115.6. In 2010, it was a stellar 85.6, and it has deteriorated rapidly since.

Could he get back some of his K:BB losses, and improve his multiplier? Well, at best I could see him scraping an additional one-half positive STD in both categories, which would improve his multiplier to 106.9. It’s just as likely, however, that Gallardo’s effectiveness dips to the extent that he never again qualifies for an ERA title. He’s beginning to live on the edge, with his strikeouts and walks.

So if Gallardo is a 95 Adjusted Contact Score guy, with a 116.5 multiplier, he’s about a 110 ERA- pitcher. That’s not something that is sought out in the free-agent market. Giving him the full benefit of the doubt to a 106.9 multiplier and he’s a 102 ERA- pitcher. That’s a little easier to stomach, especially with his proven durability over the years. Me? I’m not giving him more than three years, at more than $12 million per season. And I’m looking high and low for other options in the trade market before I go there.

There are numerous clubs which would appear to be a fit. Prospective employers require strong team defense, in both the infield and outfield, as well as spacious outfield dimensions. He needs a low Unadjusted Contact Score to have a chance to succeed. Going back to Texas wouldn’t require draft pick compensation, so that’s the best fit of all. Clubs such as the Angels, Cards, Giants, Nationals, Pirates, and Royals — that is, contenders with ballparks that don’t yield many cheap fly ball homers — would give him the best chance to succeed.

Yovani Gallardo’s foundation is very shaky, belying the fine traditional numbers he posted in 2015. There really isn’t a ton of upside here. If you have a nice bullpen and are looking for a #4 starter who will stay healthy and keep you in the ballgame for six innings, however, you could do worse. The World Champion Royals — whose two ERA qualifiers, Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez, had “tru” ERAs of 3.84 and 3.96, respectively — say hello.