Sunday Notes: Are Kenley Jansen and/or Craig Kimbrel Cooperstown Bound?
Billy Wagner was the club’s closer when Craig Kimbrel joined the Atlanta Braves in 2010. Thirty-nine years old by season’s end, Wagner logged the last 37 of his 422 career saves, and he was as dominant as ever while doing so. Over 69-and-a-third innings, the left-hander fanned 104 batters while allowing just 38 hits.
Kimbrel, who was just 21 years old when he debuted that May, was every bit as overpowering. In 21 appearances comprising 20-and-two-thirds innings, the rookie right-hander fanned 40 batters while allowing just nine hits. Along the way, he recorded the first of what is now 395 saves.
I’ve had a Hall of Fame vote for three years, and in each of them I’ve put a checkmark next to Wagner’s name. This coming winter, I plan to do so again in what will be his penultimate year on the ballot (assuming he doesn’t get voted in; Wagner received 68% of support in his last go-round).
Kimbrel will soon celebrate his 35th birthday, and while the end of his career is fast approaching, he’s still pitching. Will he likewise be getting my vote once his name appears on the ballot? And what about Kenley Jansen? Still going strong at age 35, he’s also got 395 saves, tying him with Kimbrel for seventh on the all-time list, directly behind Wagner.
Let’s compare some of their numbers:
Wagner: 422 saves, WPA 28.40, 187 ERA+, 2.73 FIP, 6.0 H/9, 11.9 K/9.
Kimbrel: 395 saves, WPA 22.99, 174 ERA+, 2.38 FIP, 5.2 H/9, 14.3 K/9.
Jansen: 395 saves, WPA 24.72, 161 ERA+, 2.44 FIP, 5.8 H/9. 13.0 K/9.
Factoring postseason play into the equation, Jansen has had the most success — 20 saves and a 2.20 ERA — but he’s also had the most opportunities, and by a wide margin. He has 59 appearances, whereas Kimbrel has 23, and Wagner just 14. It’s not fair to put too much weight on October, although if you care to do so, Jansen gets the edge.
The bigger question is: how Hall-worthy are closers? They pitch far fewer innings than starters, and as WAR attests, their relative value is therefore much less. Not everyone agrees with that statement. Alex Cora has had both Jansen and Kimbrel as closers during his managerial tenure in Boston.
“It’s just like any other position, right?,” said Cora. “If you’re really, really good at what you do, somebody will vote you in. Hoffy [Trevor Hoffman], Mariano [Rivera]. I played against them and saw first hand how dominant they were. Kenley is getting close to 400 saves, and shoot, he’s throwing 96 [mph] with that cutter. He might pitch for five more years. Then we’ll see what happens.”
Fredi González feels much the same way.
“They should give more consideration [to closers],” opined the Baltimore Orioles bench coach, who previously managed the Braves and Marlins. “I had Kimbrel for my first five years in Atlanta, and he sure made game-planning easier. If we could get to the ninth, we pretty much had that inning locked up.”
González added a caveat, saying that he’d have to take a close look at the numbers before stating outright that Kimbrel merits a plaque in Cooperstown. As for the pitcher himself, he prefers not to ponder the possibility, at least not publicly.
“I don’t really like talking about my career,” Kimbrel told me in spring training. “I think once I’m done, I’ll feel a lot more comfortable doing it. At the same time, I understand what I’ve been able to accomplish to this point. But I’m still playing — each and every year is a new year, with new opportunities — and I also understand that what I’ve done in the past isn’t going to help me now.”
Jansen was more forthcoming on the subject, although, like Kimbrel, he didn’t want to speak specifically about his own cause.
“I’ll leave that for you guys,” Jansen told me when I brought up the subject on Friday. “But I will say that it’s one of the toughest jobs to do. If you ask anybody about the last three outs… go ask Hall of Famers like John Smoltz, who did it. They will tell you that it’s tough to get the last three outs on a daily basis — especially for so long — so of course closers belong in the Hall of Fame. I know that I would vote for Billy Wagner. He was lights out.”
For all intents and purposes, Jansen and Kimbrel have been lights out themselves. Whether they’ll one day receive the same kind of support Wagner has gleaned — which may or may not ultimately get him enshrined — remains to be seen.
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Mark Grudzielanek went 9 for 11 against Tim Hudson.
Ken Griffey went 10 for 17 Rollie Fingers.
Ruppert Jones went 11 for 25 against Dave Stewart.
Derrek Lee went 12 for 17 against Mark Mulder.
Von Joshua went 13 for 25 against Catfish Hunter.
Placido Polanco went 14 for 22 against Barry Zito.
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How much has Pete Crow-Armstrong changed as a hitter since entering pro ball? I asked the 21-year-old Chicago Cubs prospect that question following a back-fields game during spring training.
“I haven’t changed,” replied Crow-Armstrong, whom the New York Mets drafted 19th overall in 2020 and subsequently swapped to Chicago in exchange for Javier Báez and Trevor Williams. “I’ve stayed true to myself as a hitter. We’ve made slight swing changes, but no, I’ve just improved what was already there. I feel like you’re probably going to ask about the power, but it’s always been there. I trust in my ability, my body, and I’ve worked really well with the coaches here.”
I asked the youngster if he could elaborate on “slight swing changes.”
“Entry into the zone has probably been the biggest benefit out of the changes we’ve made,” said Crow-Armstrong. “I like to think of it as a cleaner first move. It’s less steep.”
The Harvard-Westlake (CA) High School product slashed .312/.376/.520 with 16 home runs last year between Low-A Myrtle Beach and High-A South Bend. No. 14 on our Top 100, Crow-Armstrong is 10-for-28 with Double-A Tennessee so far this season.
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A quiz:
MLB made batting helmets mandatory in 1971, albeit with a grandfather clause that allowed players to continue wearing cloth caps with liners — which a handful did throughout the decade. Who was the last MLB player to hit sans a helmet?
The answer can be found below.
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NEWS NOTES
Hobie Landrith, who played parts of 14 big-league seasons, primarily as a backup catcher, died earlier this month at age 93. Signed out of Michigan State University by the Cincinnati Reds in 1949, Landrith later became the first-ever New York Met, the franchise having selected him with their initial pick in the 1962 expansion draft.
Paul Hinrichs, a native of Marengo, Iowa who pitched in four games for the Boston Red Sox in 1951, died earlier this week at age 97. Known as the “Pitchin’ Parson” — his father was a minister — Hinrichs allowed eight runs in three-and-third innings of work. His lone career gopher (an inside-the-parker by Bobby Avila) and only strikeout (Larry Doby) came back to back.
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The answer to the quiz is Bob Montgomery, whose final big-league plate appearance — all without a helmet — was in September, 1979. The erstwhile Boston Red Sox catcher, and later broadcast analyst, is celebrating his 79th birthday today.
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Asked on Friday about Logan O’Hoppe, Phil Nevin told reporters at Fenway Park that the rapport between the rookie catcher and Shohei Ohtani has been good. The Angels manager added that while “Sho calls his own game,” the preparation they do before stepping between the white lines has been “helping Hop.”
I proceeded to ask Nevin for his overall thoughts on pitchers, and not catchers, doing the game-calling.
“At the end of the day, the pitcher is really calling his own game,” responded Nevin. “The starters can shake. The catcher gives them an idea, but they can shake to whatever they feel comfortable with. Shohei just has so many pitches. We started using the PitchCom. Shaking to other pitches runs out of time with the clock. This is just a more efficient way for them to do that… but I don’t really care who calls it, or what, as long as we’re on the right page.”
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FOREIGN AFFAIRS
NPB’s best pitchers matched up on Friday, with Roki Sasaki and the Lotte Marines coming out on top with a 2-0 win over Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Orix Buffaloes. Sasaki allowed one hit over seven scoreless innings, with 11 strikeouts.Yamamoto allowed five hits and one run over six innings, with nine strikeouts.
Tatsuya Imai has thrown 16 scoreless innings with 19 strikeouts over two starts for the Seibu Lions. The 24-year-old right-hander went 5-1 with a 2.41 ERA with the NPB club last year.
Shogo Akiyama is slashing .432/.468/.636 in 47 plate appearances with the Hiroshima Carp. The 35-year-old (as of today) former Cincinnati Reds outfielder walked off the Yakult Swallows with his first home run of the season on Saturday.
Young Jin Song has thrown nine-and-two-thirds scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts over three appearances for SSG Landers. The 18-year-old right-hander picked up his first KBO win on Friday.
Been Gwak has thrown 12-and-a-third scoreless innings with 17 strikeouts for the the KBO’s Doosan Bears. The 23-year-old right-hander pitched for South Korea in the WBC.
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Ricky Tiedemann lasted until the 91st pick of the 2021 draft, which is when the Toronto Blue Jays selected him out of Golden West [Junior] College. The 20-year-old southpaw had no idea where he’d be landing that day.
“I had zero clue,” Tiedemann told me during spring training. “It was kind of a last-second thing in the third round, and something I didn’t even know was happening. They went through my agent. I was kind of just hanging out with my family, enjoying the moment, and not getting into the business side of it. I was letting my agent take care of that.”
Toronto’s top-rated prospect had conversations with a lot of scouts, and a lot of at-home meetings with teams,” prior to draft day, but none of those interactions left him with a feeling of, ‘Oh, they’re going to take me on draft day.’ To the best of his knowledge, “Every team was kind of on the fence about it.”
The Blue Jays are certainly happy to have hopped off the fence in the lefty’s direction. Currently with the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats, Tiedemann is No. 24 on our Top 100, and is the highest-ranked LHP on the list. He threw three scoreless frames, with all of the outs coming on Ks, on Thursday in his first start of the season.
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FARM NOTES
The California League’s Lake Elsinore Storm went into last night 6-0 on the season and had outscored their opponent 42-8. San Diego’s Low-A affiliate began the campaign with a 17-0 win over the Visalia Rawhide.
Andrew Abbott followed up on his spectacular seasonal debut — the 23-year-old southpaw fanned 11 of the 15 batters he faced on April 6 — by tossing six shutout innings with 14 strikeouts as Double-A Chattanooga topped Mississippi 8-3. Abbott is No. 15 on our Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects list.
Braydon Fisher has made four appearances and allowed just one baserunner (a HBP) in four innings, with eight strikeouts, for the High-A Great Lakes Loons. The 22-year-old right-hander was taken in the 2018 draft out of League City, Texas’s Clear Falls High School by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Cole Young is slashing .407/.556/.630 in 36 plate appearances with the Low-A Modesto Nuts. The 19-year-old shortstop was drafted 21st overall last year out of Wexford, Pennsylvania’s North Allegheny High School.
Creed Willems is slashing .429/.520/.952 with three home runs in 25 plate appearances for the Low-A Delmarva Shorebirds. The 19-year-old, left-handed-hitting catcher was taken in the eighth round of the 2021 draft out of Aledo (Texas) High School by the Baltimore Orioles.
Blaze Alexander is slashing .458/.618/.792 in 34 plate appearances with Triple-A Reno. The 23-year-old infielder was taken in the 11th round of the 2018 draft out of Bradenton, Florida’s IMG Academy by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
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The Tampa Bay Rays came into the year having averaged 94 wins over the last three non-COVID seasons, and they began the current campaign with a record-tying 13 wins. Brett Phillips knows them well. The Angels outfielder joined the A.L. East club in August 2020, and was with them until last August. My asking him what makes his old team so good began with an entertaining exchange:
Phillips: “Camaraderie.”
Me: “It takes more than just camaraderie. It takes talent, as well.”
Phillips: “Wouldn’t you say that everyone in the major leagues is talented?”
Me: “Of course.”
Phillips: “All right. So we know that. Maybe they’ve got a secret sauce that they’re stirring around in the back room and giving it to their players? Nah, I’m just kidding.”
Turning serious, Phillips proceeded to point to Tampa Bay’s President of Baseball Operations.
“I think Eric Neander has done a really good job, top to bottom, of relaying information that they need their players to understand,” he said. “It’s a new age of baseball with all this information, and teams like the Rays that are able to bridge the gap… they’re able to put that information in layman’s terms, and come up with a method of how they’re going to go about it from an organizational standpoint.
“What did they just do, go 13-0?” continued Phillips. “That’s hard to do. But as pumped as I am to see that they’re having success, I still think we’re better.”
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Luis Arraez and Pablo López were traded for each other over the offseason in what many called “a good baseball trade.”
López, who is scheduled to make his third start of the season this afternoon, has a 1.35 ERA, a 2.36 FIP, and 26 Ks in 20 innings.
Arraez, who I wrote last May “is in line to win to win a batting title” is slashing .511/.566/.702 with a 244 wRC+ over 53 PAs.
Two-plus weeks into the 2023 season, the opiners are being proven correct. The deal is working out just fine for both teams.
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
MLB.com’s Brian Murphy wrote about Retrosheet’s “mission to unearth baseball history.”
Charlie Bevis wrote about 2023 is the 100th anniversary of modern night baseball.
MassLives’s Christopher Smith asked several Red Sox players about out-of-the-box hitting drills they’ve tried over the years.
Chun-woong Lee 이천웅, an outfielder for the KBO’s LG Twins, has admitted to engaging in illegal online gambling. Jee-ho Yoo has the story at Yonhap News Agency.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Prior to making his MLB debut with the Brooklyn Dodgers on April 15, 1947, Jackie Robinson slashed .349/.468/.462 with the Montreal Royals in 1946. The Royals, whose roster included two other Black players, Roy Parlow and John Wright, went 100-54, then bested the Newark Bears and the Syracuse Chiefs to capture the International League title.
Ollie Carnegie hit 297 minor-league home runs, including 45 with the International League’s Buffalo Bison in 1938. The Pittsburgh native played his first professional season with the Michigan-Ontario League’s Flint Vehicles in 1922. He never played in the majors.
Miguel Cabrera has 1,134 extra-base hits and 1,229 walks. Ty Cobb had 1,138 extra-base hits and 1,249 walks.
Joey Votto has 2.093 hits, including 817 extra-base hits. Matt Holliday had 2.096 hits, including 816 extra-base hits.
Mike Trout hit his 300th career double yesterday, making him the fourth player in MLB history with 300-plus doubles, 300-plus home runs, and 200-plus stolen bases by his age-31 seasons. The others are Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, and Alex Rodriguez.
Sal “The Barber” Maglie jumped to the Mexican League after his 1945 rookie season with the New York Giants, and — as were other players who did the same — was subsequently indefinitely suspended by commissioner Happy Chandler. Maglie returned to MLB in 1950 and preceded to 59-18 with a 2.86 ERA with the Giants over the next three seasons.
On today’s date in 1970, Willie McCovey’s 11th-inning, two-run homer lifted the San Francisco Giants to an 11-9 win over the Houston Astros. Willie Mays had tied the game at nine apiece in the eighth inning with career home run No. 601.
Cleveland’s Bob Feller held the Chicago White Sox without a hit on today’s date in 1940. The no-hitter, which came on Opening Day, was the first of three he threw in his Hall of Fame career. Feller also had 12 one-hitters.
Players born on today’s date include Bruce Bochy, who caught for three teams — the San Diego Padres, Houston Astros, and New York Mets — from 1978-1987. Bochy logged 192 career hits, and has since gone to accumulate 2,011 managerial wins, the 11th-highest total in big-league history.
Also born on today’s date was Piggy Ward, who played for five National League teams from 1883-1894. A native of Chambersburg, Pennsylvania, Ward reached base an MLB record 17 consecutive times from June 16-18, 1893. The streak began with the Baltimore Orioles, and continued following a trade to the Cincinnati Reds.
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
How does Tyler Nevin have time to manage the Angels while also playing for the Tigers?
If you’re all in on Billy Wagner, then it’s awfully hard to turn around and say Jansen and Kimbrel aren’t deserving. They all have the same profile—a run of dominance where absolutely no one could hit them in one-inning increments, arguably in the tier of the best rate stats ever. But not necessarily for that much within seasons and not the sort of dominance that stretches well into their 30s. There will probably be more as well. It’s a good gut check for people all-in on closers in the hall; does it make sense having Kimbrel and Jansen and other players who were wipeout closers for 8-10 years in there?
That is why I don’t agree with Wagner as a HOF’er. I struggle with guys that don’t even get to 1,000 career innings, no matter how dominant.
& if you throw in Kimbrel & Jansen, doesn’t Joe Nathan belong, too?
Aroldis Chapman is another who is not far behind Kimbrel & Jansen. & if Diaz wouldn’t have gotten hurt this year, he’d have been over 250 saves & coming up, too. Even with that, if he closes for the length of his contract, he’ll be around 350 saves at age 34.
The real appeal of these guys is that they had at least one year where they had several years where they vaporized hitters in short stints (fWARs of 3.0 or more despite pitching less than 75 innings) and they had many more additional years where they were still extremely good (fWARs of 2.0 or more). The differences between them otherwise are trivial. Kimbrel was the best in terms of rate stats in those years, Wagner had the most seasons where he was a dominant closer, and Jansen was somewhere in between. Jansen has a pretty good shot of someday reaching Wagner’s fWAR value; Kimbrel probably won’t, but he’d be a lot closer without 2019.
These is entirely a rate-stat argument more than volume, and while I’m sympathetic to peak-over-counting-stats having elite rate stats is not the same as having a high peak. In Kenley Jansen’s best year, he was 22nd in fWAR. In Kimbrel’s best year (coincidentally the same year) he was 28th. If you want to see how they compared over only their careers to other pitchers–so we’re getting their whole careers but not necessarily anyone else’s–they are 33rd and 44th in fWAR.
And as you note, it’s not clear where it ends. If we really want to make a rate-stat argument, we kind of have to start considering other players too. Aroldis Chapman, Darren O’Day, and Jonathan Papelbon have a lower career ERA- than Jansen. Aroldis Chapman also has the lowest FIP- in history, is only 3.5 fWAR behind Wagner, and is back to vaporizing batters in Kansas City. Tom Henke was an absolute monster.
Do you think the Red Sox are paying Jansen $16m this year and next because Henry’s given Bloom an unlimited budget, because Bloom doesn’t use analytics in his decision making…or do you think it’s because the Red Sox’s internal version of WAR places significantly more value on relief aces than fWAR does?
Yeah, that was kind of a silly move, wasn’t it? This is such a weird example to pick. But even if you assume that reliever fWAR is literally one half of its true value, Wagner’s career doesn’t stack up well.
I would vote for Wagner as he meets the bar set by HOF voters. I haven’t looked at Kenley and Kimbrel as closely, but they seem to be on the HOF track, too.
That being said, I don’t think the fact that a top closer draws a yearly salary in the Jameson Taillon/Eduardo Rodriguez neighborhood is necessarily a good HOF argument.
Jansen and Kimbrel are both 35, both clearly in decline, and both hoping to catch Papelbon this year.
And my point is that Jansen hasn’t been a top closer in 5 years – Diaz is getting paid Luis Castillo money.
I don’t know, Jansen looks pretty damn good right now
That’s a fair point. They’re past their primes. But they’re still among the highest paid at the position, Jansen in particular.
It’s not really germane to the above, but Joe Posnanski has written a few times about the statistical oddity that teams with a one-run lead entering the 9th inning have won almost precisely 95% of those games in every decade going back like 70 years. I don’t remember the precise stat off the top of my head, but the upshot is that, despite all the changes in the game, the rate at which MLB teams get 3 outs without giving up a run seems to be nearly fixed.
Oops, my “one-run lead” qualifier is obviously incorrect. It’s games in which teams hold *any* lead entering the 9th.
Here’s a piece where he delved into his research on the topic: https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2013/03/12/the-closer-you-get/
It’s a decade old now, so I wonder how the stat has held up.
Here’s his chart specifically showing the winning percentages of teams entering the 9th holding a one-run lead by decade:
1960s: .844
1970s: .850
1980s: .852
1990s: .846
2000s: .848
As the piece mentions, it’s not a bad topic to spark some intelligent discussion among baseball fans.
& per year Diaz is getting less than 50% of what Scherzer/Verlander, both going on 40, are getting, less than 60% of what Cole & DeGrom are getting, about 75% of Rodon & Wheeler. Yu Darvish got more after 2017.
& Darvish/Cole/Wheeler/Scherzer were signed before the salaries jumped up last offseason.
What is Nola going to get this offseason? Burnes? I’ll darn well bet it’s more than 5 years $101M. (assuming good years/health)
True – he’s definitely not being paid like a 6-7 win player a la Scherzer/Verlander/Cole/DeGrom…but you might want to check your math on the Wheeler and Darvish deals (5/$118M and 6/$126M, respectively).
5/$102M is very much in-line with that – suggesting he’s valued as a 4-5 win guy.
But yeah, I expect Nola and especially Burnes to wallop that number, and get deals in the Cole range…because Nola’s a 5-6 win guy and Burnes is a 6-7 win guy.
…and I think that being a consistent 4-5 win guy for 15 years makes you a Hall of Famer.
I’d put Whitaker, Randolph, Lofton, and Torre in, and I don’t think guys like Trammell and Winfield are out of place.
The problem with this argument is that you are not going to be in support of any closer other than Rivera. It’s hard to be for Hoffman but neither of these two guys.
I don’t see anything wrong with being for Rivera and not any other reliever of recent vintage. Seems like a very defensible cut point.
& I would agree with that for guys throwing 60 innings a year. The Gossage/Wilhelm/Fingers 100+ inning guys are different.
I view the 1 inning “closer” like NFL kickers. Yeah, the best of the best deserve it (Morton Andersen, Stenrud, throw in Adam Vinatieri..maybe Justin Tucker if he keeps doing what he’s doing), but, most teams have reliable options..so, only the truly great should get inducted.
I just don’t see enough separating guys & if we throw in 5-6 1 inning relievers from a 25 year window (Mo, Hoffman, Wagner, Kimbrel, Jansen, Nathan, etc), to me that’s overvaluing them vs other positions.
I definitely agree that Kimbrel/Chapman/Jansen are a LOT closer to guys like Nathan and Papelbon than they are to Wagner, who was a lot better than them on a rate basis, and did it for a lot longer.
Wagner spent 15 seasons as 2020-22 Edwin Diaz.
I don’t think Chapman has a shot at the hall due to his character. But it’s insane to me how similar he is to Jansen and Kimbrel. They all debuted at the same time, have eerily similar numbers, and all started declining around the same time. Off the top of my head, there haven’t been any relievers since them that have sustained a similar level of excellence.
I mean…not really?
Neither of those guys have caught Joe Nathan yet…and Wagner was a hell of a lot better than Nathan.
It’s also pretty easy for me to say that Chase Utley is a Hall of Famer, then turn around and say that Dustin Pedroia isn’t deserving!
Joe Nathan is 0.5 behind Billy Wagner in R-JAWS and ahead in the standard JAWS, and counter to the argument that Wagner was more dominant, actually is behind Nathan in WAR7.
Now, if you want to argue that bWAR’s pitching adjustments are totally messed up, I strongly agree. So you can look at rate stats, which have Joe Nathan at an ERA- of 59 compared to Wagner’s 54.
Now, you may want to argue, in response, that Wagner was absolutely dominant in terms of his defensive independent stats–that he was special there. This is probably his strongest argument; nobody except for Mariano Rivera has had rate stats better than his and who has been eligible for the hall. Except that Wagner’s FIP- is behind that of Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel.
Now, you may want to argue, in response, that Wagner pitched more innings than Jansen and Kimbrel. Jansen and Kimbrel (and Chapman) are ahead of Nathan in fWAR, but behind Wagner. But Jansen is only 1.5 fWAR behind; he could easily make it without any problem. Kimbrel has a tougher road ahead of him, so that’s unlikely.
But if rate stats are no longer the operating consideration, and volume matters, then none of these relievers stack up well. Billy Wagner had 27.7 bWAR and 24 fWAR. He’s well behind Corey Kluber, Stephen Strasburg, and Yu Darvish there. I mean, Corey Kluber has won 2 Cy Young awards!
Now, you may want to argue, in response, that all of these things can be argued the same way in reverse. But the point is that there is no clear cutoff line between Wagner and Jansen specifically, and probably not Kimbrel or Chapman either. All of these players are more or less the same guy.
What I’d argue is that no one should ever use fWAR when discussing how valuable a pitcher was over a 900 inning career, because we’ve known for years that pitcher-BABIP stabilizes well before that point.
People are free to argue that Andy Pettitte was more valuable than Tom Glavine, and Javy Vazquez was more valuable pitcher than Cole Hamels, Tim Hudson, and Jon Lester.
I’m similarly free to call them silly.
I’d also argue that pitching rWAR’s defensive calculations are fatally flawed.
That’s why I use RA9-WAR, when it comes to career value for pitchers.
Wagner’s at 30, firmly above Nathan (who was also freaking AWESOME, and whom I view as the perfect “borderline” guy, whom I wouldn’t mind being in the Hall), at 27.
Kimbrel and Jansen are at 22 RA9-WAR.
Both of them are 35.
Kimbrel has amassed 3.6 WAR in the previous 5 seasons.
Jansen has amassed 5.3 over the same span.
Jansen might catch Nathan, if he pitches another several years at his current level, but neither of them are going to catch Wagner (who only pitched 130 more innings than Jansen has – he was just that much better).
Elect no relievers, unless starters more worthy are enshrined.
Without sweating, I’d take the 36 below before more relievers, and ahead of others already enshrined.
Best pitchers not enshrined, eligible, non-PEDs/Schilling edition:
Favorite 5:
Wes Ferrell
David Cone
Bret Saberhagen
Luis Tiant
Dick Redding
Next 6 pack:
Urban Shocker – war credit
Andy Pettitte
Johan Santana
Dave Stieb
Tommy John
Tim Hudson
The fuzzy borderline between in and out:
Bob Caruthers – depending on how you handle the AA and short distance pitching versus also being a fine hitter.
Orel Hershiser
Dolf Luque
Kevin Appier
Babe Adams – MLE credit
Roy Oswalt
Billy Pierce
Don Newcombe – Korea/integration credit
Doc Gooden
Tommy Bridges – War/MLE credit
Pre 60’6″ crew I think below Caruthers, but need handled carefully:
Tommy Bond
Charlie Buffinton
Jim McCormick
Tony Mullane
Close enough to argue, but I’m showing short:
Mark Buehrle
David Wells
Cliff Lee
Ron Guidry
George Uhle
Frank Tanana
Jim Kaat
Carl Mays
Jimmy Key
Chuck Finley
Wagner isn’t the dividing line for me – it was Hoffman. Once they let him in (I wouldn’t have) you have to put all these guys in, or suffer the inconsistency. We’re going to see a lot of these guys in the next 10-20 years, and IMO very few of them will be worthy.
Then who do you support going in that is better than these guys (and Hoffman and Chapman, etc.) but not as good as Mo?
No one. The job is pitcher. Relievers are almost universally pitchers who were unable to make it as starters. Mo is the only pure reliever I’d have put in the hall. Why do we need a bunch of pitchers who can only go 60 or so innings in a year in the hall?
Why do we need designated hitters in the hall when all they do is hit? Or bad hitting shortstops who were great defensively?
Here’s the thing: All of these guys have WAR penalties that directly address this problem.
Bad hitting shortstops who were great defensively should not belong in the hall. If you were the greatest defensive shortstop of all time who also had a 90 career wRC+ over something like 18 seasons, you get in, but otherwise I would pass. But of course, in that case, your WAR is high enough.
Similarly, the offensive bar for DH-only guys has to be enormously, comically high to overcome the defensive penalty. I don’t think David Ortiz is there. Edgar Martinez is. Frank Thomas and Jim Thome would have been had they DH’d most of their careers.
Similarly, the problem with closers is that they just don’t pitch enough to make a Hall-of-Fame sized impact on the game, and WAR accounts for that. Only one reliever (Rivera) has ever gotten above 30 fWAR just as a reliever, and given his postseason accomplishments I think he’s pretty clearly over the bar. Dennis Eckersley’s work as a starter and reliever put him over the bar (and had he simply been a closer his whole career, he would have been over the bar anyway). After that? IDK. Goose Gossage and Hoyt Wilhelm have a case. They pitched a lot. But it’s really hard to say that players with 30 WAR, regardless of the counting method, are Hall of Famers.
This is an amusingly dogmatic faith in a model that claimed Paul DeJong was a much better defensive shortstop than Nick Ahmed, this time last year.
Let’s leave aside whether any sane person would claim that Zack Greinke has yet to surpass Andy Pettitte, in terms of career value:
WAR is very much a living and breathing document, cobbled together by smart, hardworking people who have a hell of a lot less time, money, and information than a low-end MLB data department.
Anyone treating it as God’s Word sent from On High is being deeply silly…especially when decisions made by budget-conscious, analytics-driven front offices directly and consistently contradict how the present model values not just an individual player, but an entire class of them.
I think I would probably put all 3 in. But then it gets hard to not vote for someone like Papelbon, who was just as dominant but maybe doesn’t have quite the longevity. So maybe Papelbon is your “just out” line.
But then what about Joe Nathan? He wasn’t as dominant maybe, but it’s hard to say that Kimbrel and Jansen are in (right now) but Nathan isn’t.
What about Chapman? His reign of dominance matches Jansen and Kimbrel. If you want to keep him out for character reasons, that’s one thing. But it’s hard to say he’s not deserving if you put in Kimbrel and Jansen.
That said, I’m ok with Jansen, Kimbrel, and Chapman all making it (though I’m also happy if Chapman doesn’t make it due to character reasons).
If there are 2-3 guys per generation that are just absolutely dominant closers for 8+ years, that’s probably enough for me.
My line’s Joe Nathan, and I don’t think either Kimbrel or Jansen will meet it.
Look at his first six years in Minnesota!
Imagine if the guy had been moved to the pen before he was 27?
Question: If the catchers and pitchers don’t have as much time to agree on a pitch, is this having any effect on offense? It would be hard to separate that from the shift rule and the larger bases / pickoff rules / etc.
Luis Arraez playing well reminds me of my favorite factoid I learned this week (although it has changed slightly since then).
Per wRC+, Matt Chapman (256) and Luis Arraez (244) are the two best offensive performers in the league so far.
Luis Arraez is dead last in max EV recorded this year (99.5).
Matt Chapman is way out in front of everyone else in average EV this year (98.5).
Matt Chapman is hitting the ball so hard (and Luis Arraez is hitting the ball so softly) that he is nearly averaging Arraez’s max EV.
That was one of the tougher trivia questions. I guessed Manny Mota because I knew he was old in the late 70’s & he also didn’t play much & I think I would have remembered a star/regular PT player who didn’t wear a helmet.
I knew it was a Red Sox catcher, I just couldn’t come up with the name.
I rarely watch hockey, but I know Craig MacTavish is the answer to the NHL’s version of this question. The difference between MacTavish and Montgomery being, for me, that I was alive and aware for the occasional mention of hockey’s last grandfather clause invoker.
Put down that coffee that coffee ‘s for closers! Absolutely agree that closers deserve and the last the outs are like a NBA star that can close out a game with isolation play and converting a clutch jumper.
Regarding Nevin and the Angels, it seems to me that a catcher with a gravitas like a Martin Maldonado does make a difference in calling games and can even shake off a Verlander. This pitch signal thing seems to have been the only thing the halos worked on all spring. They’re not concerned with stealing (as they have said). And other teams worked on pitchers using the clock to freeze a batter where the Angels are just concerned w not getting violations.
After reading these comments I was surprised, and disappointed, to see so many of the knowledgeable baseball followers here underrate the value of closers. How many times must the importance of situationality and the leverage index be recognized before the importance of when is seen as at least an equal part of performance as what. As the game evolves in a direction that I don’t agree with the importance of the opener, who is a starter only because he is the first to climb the hill, is lessened, the value of a player who is going to be placed in a very high leveraged situation in all of his appearances multiplies by many units of measure. Is one 9th inning in a one run game of equal importance as 10 3rd innings spread over an entire season? If a pitcher is placed in the role of closer and he performs his role at an excellent level for 10 years then he is a Hall of Famer. How can there a debate about Billy Wagner, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and quite a few more deserve recognition as well.
I mean, the stat lines in the article do begin with career total WPA for a reason. And career WPA is, at first blush, not an unreasonable way to commensurate starters and relievers. It’s an interesting exercise to click over to the career leaderboards and cast an eyeball over pitchers sorted by WPA to think about where the “clear Hall of Famer” and “borderline Hall of Famer” zones are. To me 30 WPA, which is Joe Nathan, looks like a pretty reasonable dividing line, but I think Wagner could be arguable on the low side of that line. Jansen and Kimbrel probably aren’t going to make it to Wagner’s 28+ WPA over the rest of their careers.
People keep saying “What about Joe Nathan??”
Joe Nathan was freaking awesome, and I’d be fine with him in the hall!
The relevant quote from the article is this. “The bigger question is: how Hall-worthy are closers? They pitch far fewer innings than starters, and as WAR attests, their relative value is therefore much less. Not everyone agrees with that statement”. I should hope very few agree and that a better answer would be how could anyone with an IQ higher than Mariano’s uniform number even contemplate such The very fact that a comment like that finds its way into a discussion about the value of closers exposes the uselessness of WAR as a measure of the value of an elite closer. The equally obvious fact that the only player to ever be elected unanimously to The Hall of Fame is a closer strongly supports that.
Unanimity proves nothing except that the player was extremely popular among BBWAA members. This is a ridiculous argument.
I think it has more to do with him being the best at his position, by far.
Yep.
Bona fide ace, deserving First Ballot HOF John Smoltz spent 4 years at closer.
He wasn’t all that close to Rivera, in RA9-WAR – notch behind Wagner, too.
Then Smoltz went back to being a bona fide ace for another several seasons.
They’re pitchers, and should be evaluated as such. They typically don’t pitch enough to make a Hall of Fame sized contribution. Guys like Doc Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, and Roy Oswalt did more to help their teams win in their peak years than Billy Wagner did in his entire career.
The caveat to this is that I wouldn’t rule out the idea that as starting pitchers’ workloads decline that the distance between relievers and starters is going to diminish. But it’s not there yet.
No and no.
Jansen and especially Kimbrel will retire with fewer innings pitched than appearances. All of the relievers in the Hall averaged more than an inning per appearance.
I wonder how future HOF voters will view pitchers who did in fact average fewer than one inning per appearance.