Sunday Notes: Liam Hicks Likens Jackson Jobe To a Hard-Throwing Marlin
Liam Hicks is on the receiving end of some serious heat in Miami. Selected second overall by the Marlins in last winter’s Rule-5 draft, the 26-year-old backstop is catching the likes of Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, and Eury Pérez. Power arms aren’t new to him. Hicks caught Jackson Jobe in Double-A Erie last summer after joining the Detroit Tigers organization in the trade deadline deal that sent Carson Kelly to the Texas Rangers.
Who among the pitchers on the Marlins staff is most comparable to a healthy Jobe (the 23-year-old right-hander had Tommy John surgery in mid-June after making 10 starts for the Tigers and going 4-1 with a 4.22 ERA)? I asked that question of Hicks prior to a recent game.
“Comps are tough, but I would probably say the closest is Edward Cabrera,” replied Hicks, who is currently sharing catching duties with fellow rookie Agustín Ramírez. “Jobe had five different pitches he could throw [the same number the Marlins righty has in his repertoire].Their four-seams are pretty similar, although Jobe has a little bit lower slot and gets a little more ride, whereas Cabby’s is more just at the top of the zone. Cabby has a two-seam. Jobe wasn’t throwing a two-seam last year.
“Their changeups are very different,” added Hicks. “Cabby’s is more like a power changeup — it’s 94-95 [mph] — while Jobe’s had a lot bigger separation from his fastball. It was almost screwball-ish. Again, it’s hard to compare guys, but [Jobe] definitely had electric stuff.”
Cabrera’s stuff is likewise electric. Featuring a heater that is averaging 96.7 MPH this season, he has a 3.34 ERA and a 3.56 FIP over 21 starts comprising 113-and-a-third innings.
Hicks also caught Troy Melton in his month-plus with Erie. Called up to make his debut for the Tigers three weeks ago, the 24-year-old righty has a 2.82 ERA and 21 strikeouts over his first 22-and-a-third big-league innings. Melton has a six-pitch mix, including a heater that’s been averaging 96.5 mph.
Hicks couldn’t come up with a comp for Melton, but he certainly came away impressed with the arsenal.
“I like Troy a lot,” Hicks said of his short-time teammate. “I actually texted him a few days ago after I saw that he shoved against the White Sox. He’s got a really good fastball, as well as a really good changeup. Troy is another guy who has good secondaries that he can land. When you can also throw 97-98, it makes it pretty tough for hitters.”
As for the pitchers whose stuff most stands out, Hicks cited three of his current teammates.
“Cabby and Sandy are up there,” the Toronto native told me. “Eury, of course. His fastball is probably the best I’ve ever caught. It’s 98, and he’s also got seven feet of extension. It looks like he’s handing the ball to you.”
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Chris Getz went 9 for 15 against Jeremy Guthrie.
Paul Janish went 5 for 6 against Ted Lilly.
Josh Barfield went 5 for 6 against Gary Majewski.
Phil Nevin went 5 for 6 against Chris Holt.
Carlos Quentin went 7 for 15 against Brian Bannister.
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How similar are Cincinnati Reds southpaws Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo?
“We’re a little similar pitch-wise, but our shapes are completely different,” Lodolo told me in early July. “Andrew has more carry than me, as he’s got a true four and I throw a two-seam sinker. We kind of throw the same breaking ball, although they’re from different arm slots — he’s more over the top than I am. He’s throwing a changeup more this year, but I don’t know if those are even close to mine.”
Even with their differences, the southpaws discuss how to go about attacking opposing hitters.
“He pitches in front of me, so I’m definitely going to pick his brain about what he saw,” said Lodolo. “But at the end of the day, our plans are going to be different. We’re going to attack guys a little bit differently, although with some guys it may be close to the same. But yeah, we have those conversations for sure.”
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While starting pitchers routinely throw a bullpen session between starts, that’s rarely the case for relievers. Much for that reason, I was surprised to see a sweaty Brent Suter strolling in from the visiting bullpen prior to an afternoon affair at Fenway Park. What had the 35-year-old Cincinnati Reds hurler been up to?
“Since April 2018, I’ve been doing dry visualizations,” Suter told me. “It’s kind of a mental and physical sensation of getting on the mound and doing my resets. I get the catcher down, giving a target for a common pitch that I throw, and then go through little dry-work throws. It’s not full arm action. I’m basically working on conviction, belief, and intensity with my visualization, getting the ball where I want it. I do this every day.”
The veteran of 10 big-league seasons went on to explain that if he hasn’t pitched in the previous three days, he will do “actual throws on that fourth day.”
The Harvard alum has other routines as well, and they go beyond studying scouting reports. On the first day of a series, Suter does “core activation,” while day two is “a total body lift,” and day three is “mobility/soft-tissue mobilization.” Moreover, he does “meditation/visualization” for 10 or 15 minutes on a daily basis. About 20 minutes before each game, Suter showers, then has Atomic Balm applied to his pitching arm, at which point he is “ready to rock.”
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A quiz:
Henry Aaron is the Boston/Milwaukee/Atlanta franchise’s all-time leader in home runs. Who ranks second?
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NEWS NOTES
Roki Sasaki made a rehab start on Thursday with the Triple-A Oklahoma City Comets. In his first game action since May 9, the Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander allowed six hits and three runs over two innings, with one walk and no strikeouts. He threw 41 pitches and reportedly topped out at 95.7 mph.
Bill Hepler, a left-hander who appeared in 37 games for the New York Mets in 1966, died earlier this week at age 79. Just 20 years old when he made his MLB debut, the Covington, Virginia native went 3-3 with a 3.52 ERA over 69 innings.
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The answer to the quiz is Eddie Mathews, who hit 493 of his 503 career home runs with the Braves (the Hall of Famer did so playing in all of Boston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta). Chipper Jones ranks third in franchise history with 468 home runs.
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Kansas City Royals manager Matt Quatraro was effusive in his praise when asked recently about Maikel Garcia. That’s understandable. The 25-year-old third sacker earned an All-Star berth this summer amid a breakout campaign.
“He’s grown up in front of our eyes.,” Quatraro told reporters prior to a recent game. “Off the field. Maturity level. Strength: he’s put on a good amount of muscle this year. He’s really worked on his swing, keeping his body in better control, so he’s hitting pitches that last year he was fouling off. He’s using the whole field. Defensively, he’s put in a lot of work on his range and his first-step quickness. We’ve seen a lot of growth.”
Garcia is slashing .301/.364/.467 with 11 home runs, 22 steals, and a 128 wRC+. Moreover, his 4.2 WAR is sixth-best among American League position players, while his nine Outs Above Average ranks first at his position. Overshadowed by Bobby Witt Jr. in small-market Kansas City, Garcia is emerging as a big-time performer.
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When our Bold Predictions For the 2025 Season were published in late March, I wrote that Ceddanne Rafaela would win a Gold Glove, record a wRC+ of 110 or better, and be worth 4.0 or more WAR. My optimism was based in part on how Rafaela would be “unburdened by having to move between the infield and the outfield.”
Boston manager Alex Cora is doing his best to foil my prediction.
Through July 11, Rafaela had played all but one of his 90 games in center field and boasted a 114 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR. Since July 12, Rafaela has had little stability, starting 15 games in center and 13 games at second base. Moreover, he’s had a 44 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR.
On the season, Rafaela has 16 Defensive Runs Saved as a centerfielder, and minus-one DRS as a second baseman. At the plate, he is slashing .257/.318/.483 in 377 plate appearances as a centerfielder, and .143/.182/.159 in 66 plate appearances as a second baseman.
Cora claims there is no correlation. Color me skeptical. Comfortability taken out of the equation has clearly done Rafaela no favors.
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FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Cody Ponce now has a record of 15-0, as well as a 1.61 ERA, a 1.93 FIP, and a 36.8% strikeout rate over 145-and-two-thirds innings for the Hanwha Eagles. The 31-year-old former Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander leads KBO pitchers in most categories.
Teruaki Sato leads the pitcher-friendly NPB in doubles (26) and home runs (31). The 26-year-old Hanshin Tigers third baseman/outfielder has gone deep eight more times than Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters DH Franmil Reyes, who has the circuit’s second-highest dinger total.
Miles Simington slashed .332/.385/.517 over 291 plate appearances while playing for three teams in the Mexican League, primarily the Tigres de Quintana Roo. The 25-year-old former Purdue Boilermakers outfielder spent last year with the independent American Association’s Winnipeg Goldeyes, as well as the Australian Baseball League’s Canberra Cavalry.
The ABL’s Brisbane Bandits announced that 18-year-old second baseman/outfielder Max Durrington will be back with the team for the 2025-2026 season. The Tweeds Head, New South Wales native — and son of former big-league infielder Trent Durrington — has spent this summer in the [don’t call us Sacramento) Athletic system, logging an 86 wRC+ between the Arizona Complex League and Low-A Stockton.
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A random obscure former player snapshot:
Fans of a certain age will remember Steve Renko. The tall right-hander logged 134 wins and a 3.99 ERA over 2,494 innings while playing for seven teams from 1969-1983. Renko’s rookie season was spent with the Montreal Expos in the expansion club’s inaugural campaign, and he went on to have his best years with the Quebec-based club. In 1971, he went 15-14 with a 3.75 ERA, and in 1973 he went 15-11 with a 2.81 ERA. Prior to pro ball, Renko played baseball, basketball, and football at the University of Kansas, where as a quarterback he shared a backfield with Hall of Fame running back Gale Sayers.
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On April 16, 2023, Sunday Notes led with my addressing the question, “Are Kenley Jansen and/or Craig Kimbrel Cooperstown Bound?” Sixteen months later, I’ve more or less come to a decision on the former. While Kimbrel remains a question mark, I am increasingly of the opinion that Jansen is having a Hall of Fame-worthy career.
Still going strong at age 37, Jansen now ranks fourth all-time with 470 saves, and he is poised to shortly move past Lee Smith (478) into third place. Moreover, Jansen ranks 21st all time with 920 appearances, and he is fourth in strikeout rate — right in front of Billy Wagner — among relievers who have thrown at least 500 innings (Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Kimbrel top the list).
Wagner is a meaningful comp, given the his recent induction. Jansen not only has the edge in saves and strikeout rate, he also has more WAR, WPA, and innings pitched. He also boasts a better FIP.
The belief that relievers — even closers — don’t belong in the Hall of Fame isn’t without merit. That said, if relievers do deserve the honor, Jansen has numbers on his side. They include 23 saves and a 2.74 ERA with the Los Angeles Angels so far this season.
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FARM NOTES
Nate George is slashing .345/.420/.502 with four home runs and a 166 wRC+ over 292 plate appearances between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Delmarva (and briefly) High-A Aberdeen. Drafted in the 16th round last year out of Minooka (Illinois) Community High School, the 19-year-old outfielder is No. 39 on our updated Baltimore Orioles Top Prospects list, with a 40 FV.
Yorman Gómez is 11-0 with a 2.62 ERA, a 2.91 FIP, and a 27.3% strikeout rate over 99-and-two-thirds innings between High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron. A native of Coro, Venezuela who was signed in July 2019, the 22-year-old right-hander is No. 38 on our updated Cleveland Guardians Top Prospects list, with a 40 FV.
Griffin Herring is 7-3 with a 1.79 ERA, a 2.76 FIP, and a 29.9% strikeout rate over 100-and-a-third innings between Low-A Tampa and a pair of High-A affiliates. Acquired by Colorado from the New York Yankees as part of the Ryan McMahon trade, the 22-year-old left-hander — a 2024 sixth-round pick out of LSU — is No. 21 on our our updated Rockies Top Prospects list, with a 40 FV.
Kendry Chourio has a 30.7% strikeout rate and a 1.2% walk rate to go with a 3.05 ERA and a 2.72 FIP over 41-and-a-third innings across the Arizona Complex League, the Dominican Summer League, and Low-A Columbia. The 17-year-old right-hander was signed out of Venezuela by the Kansas City Royals in January.
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These back-to-back passages in Jane Leavy’s new book, Make Me Commissioner (I Know What’s Wrong With Baseball and How To Fix It) caught my eye:
“[Jim] Palmer threw the first of his 211 complete games at Fenway Park in April 1966. He threw 177 pitches that day and hit a home run too. After the game, someone said to Orioles pitching coach Harry Brecheen, ‘Harry, that’s a lot of pitches,’ Palmer recalled. ‘Harry says, ‘Yeah, we wanna get that pitch count down into the 140s.’
“He missed most of the 1967 season and all of 1968 because of shoulder surgery, The Orioles left him unprotected in the 1968 expansion draft. The Kansas City Royals and Seattle Pilots passed on him.”
Palmer went 16-4 for the Orioles in 1969, then won 20 more games in eight of the next nine seasons. The Hall of Famer won four Cy Young awards.
And then there is this passage, regarding a managerial moment from Buck Showalter’s time with the New York Mets.
“When a valued relief pitcher, Trevor May, melted down over the death of his cat and couldn’t pitch for three days — that was in Buck’s portfolio. “I couldn’t tell the media that. So, I had to wear it. ‘Why didn’t you use Trevor May?’ Was I supposed to say because his cat died?”
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
Baseball America has released its midseason farm system rankings, which have the Milwaukee Brewers on top and the San Diego Padres on the bottom.
Why do the small-market Milwaukee Brewers win, and the small-market Pittsburgh Pirates lose? Pittsburgh Baseball Now’s John Perrotto talked to Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold in an effort to find out.
The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman wrote about how the Pohlad family’s pulling the Minnesota Twins off the market is a crushing blow to a fanbase that deserves better.
At NPR’s Morning Edition, Becky Sullivan delved into who is still trying to be an MLB umpire in an age of replay review and robot umps.
Unlike MLB, Little League Baseball wants nothing to do with gambling. Scooby Axson has the story at USA Today.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
The Detroit Tigers are 19-8 in one-run games this season. They are 7-1 in one-run games since the beginning of July.
The Boston Red Sox have 10 walk-off wins and 11 walk-off losses. The Baltimore Orioles have one walk-off win and three-walk-off losses.
In 2007, Greg Maddux allowed 221 hits and issued 25 walks. In 1975, Nolan Ryan allowed 221 hits and issued 202 walks.
Texas Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young went 2-0 with a 2.02 ERA over five postseason appearances. The right-hander pitched three hitless and scoreless innings and got credit for the win as the Kansas City Royals beat the New York Mets 5-4 in Game One of the 2015 World Series.
The San Diego Padres beat the New York Mets 15-10 in Monterrey, Mexico on August 16, 1996 in the first-ever MLB game played in a country other than the United States or Canada. Fernando Valenzuela was credited with the win.
On today’s date in 1990, Ruben Sierra hit a walk-off single in the 13th inning to give the Texas Rangers a 1-0 win over the Chicago White Sox. Nolan Ryan went the first 10 innings for the Rangers, allowing three hits, walking none, and punching out 15 batters.
Ernie Banks took Don Drysdale deep for a walk-off home run to give the Chicago Cubs a 1-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on today’s date in 1960. The blast was the All-Star shortstop’s 34th on the season. He finished with 41, the fourth consecutive year that Banks hit 40 or more home runs.
Players born on today’s date include Dick Lines, a left-hander who went 7-7 with six saves and a 2.83 ERA while making 107 appearances for the Washington Senators across the 1966-1967 seasons. A native of Montreal, Lines went 1-for-19 at the plate, his lone hit coming against Wally Bunker in a 9-7 Senators loss to the Baltimore Orioles in a game that took 19 innings to complete. Andy Etchebarren hit a walk-off homer.
Also born on today’s date was Dave Lemanczyk, a right-hander who led the 1977 Toronto Blue Jays with 13 wins in the team’s inaugural season. Originally with the Detroit Tigers, Lemanczyk went 37-63 with a 4.62 ERA while appearing in 185 games for three teams from 1973-1980. He threw a one-hitter against the Texas Rangers in 1979.
Count Campau played professionally from 1885-1905, with a handful of his seasons spent with teams in his home state of Michigan. The outfielder suited up for the Detroit Tigers, Detroit Wolverines, Detroit Creams, and Grand Rapids Bob-o-links. Campau recorded 1,999 hits, including 153 in the majors.
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
I immediately thought of Eddie Mathews for the quiz, and then I thought “too obvious” so I went with Andruw Jones. Turns out he is 5th instead of 2nd, just behind Dale Murphy. I guess the “trick” was that everyone would think of Chipper Jones.
I went with Chipper over Murphy, which would have been correct except for stupidly forgetting Matthews.
Got the quiz. It was so utterly obvious that I spent some time assuming maybe there was a trick and it was someone else. However, Mathews is on the short list of 500 HR hitters and I knew he played all but a year or two at the end with Braves. For someone to be higher than him ,they’d have to have hit 500 HR just with the Braves. Couldn’t think of a single other 500 HR guy that played for the Braves so Mathews it is
Just for fun,: just went and looked it up (& I don’t think I missed anyone), only 4 500+ HR guys spent any time with the Braves with Aaron and Mathews already mentioned, Who are the other 2?
I got it. Babe Ruth is tricky because it was so brief, and I remember Sheffield’s nomadic career.
I actually forgot about Sheffield when I was mentally running through the 500 HR hitters. This was before I looked it up. When I looked it up and saw his name, I immediately remembered him as a Brave. Since he just squeaked over, I think I wall always kind of forget him when I think of the 500 HR hitters.
I remembered Ruth going to Boston his final season, but I thought it was to the Bees. Well, no, he went to the Braves. But I didn’t remember that the Braves WERE the Bees for a few years later in the 30’s. So same franchise. For some reason, I thought they were a short-lived separate franchise.
BTW, not going to look it up, but my recollection is that Ruth went there because he was given some promises (never really intended to be kept) of managing when he was done. He has to be one of the few people to ever have a 3 HR game within the final 6 games of his career.
Great minds think alike!
Babe Ruth and Gary Sheffield.
Got Sheff, but totally whiffed on Ruth.
I went with the obvious one (thought about Andruw and Chipper as well) and finally got one!
I immediately thought of Matthews & thought it was too obvious & then said “Who else could it be”?
Murphy ended up in the 350’s, Andruw Jones ended up in the low 400’s, couldn’t think of any old-time Boston guys that had high career totals. I didn’t remember how many Chipper had, but, knew he didn’t get to 500, so I went with Matthews.
I had no idea Chipper got to 468. I thought he ended up as a high 300’s HR guy.
Yeah, I was shocked to see Chipper had that many.
I did exactly this, except chose Chipper.
Always nice when David gives us a gimme quiz.
Pretty easy quiz today. I knew Mathews had over 500 career home runs and played almost his whole career with the Braves.
Still hard to believe that it took him 5 ballots to make the HOF. Sure, they didn’t have WAR back then, but he had 500+ home runs + made 12 All-Star games. How was he not a first ballot HOFer???
Great quiz where my gut answer was right. Not sure why so many people forget how great Eddie Mathews was (probably the best third baseman in baseball history until Mike Schmidt).
Those two and Wade Boggs are in a class of their own.
Brett and Beltre are up there are well.
By JAWS, Schmidt is the clear #1 (82.8). But the next 4 are bunched together between 71.0 (Brett) to 74.9 (Mathews). There’s then a bit of a drop to Chipper Jones at 66.0.
I believe by the midpoint of Aaron and Mathews careers, Mathews looked like the better bet to catch Ruth. (I think Joe Posnanski laid out that history – its well before my time.)
I don’t usually agree with the author about Rafaela but this time I am in 100% agreement. People say that playing a different position is irrelevant to hitting (also batting order) but hitting is a habit with super mechanical and lots of weird things throw hitters off. Just because it should not logically throw someone off doesn’t mean that it won’t, because hitting isn’t logical.
More generally I think the idea of ever playing Rafaela in the infield is a terrible idea. His wRC+ as a second baseman is -19 versus being league average as an outfielder. And even if we don’t think the offense issues are real, he’s an 80 center fielder and a 40 second baseman (at best).
This whole thing, and potentially other parts of Red Sox’s season, feels like an too-clever-by-half attempt to salvage something from Masataka Yoshida even if it means the team is worse overall. They would be better off just sitting Rafaela on the days he isn’t in CF, sitting Yoshida more often, giving Anthony and Duran a couple more days off, etc. This is not working and anyone who saw Rafaela struggle last year as an infielder should have seen this coming.
It’s so sad. Rafaela is a good team player so he does what they ask but it’s bad for his stats and reputation. That’s where you need to look at the details and not just the box scores/end of season stats. His sacrifice won’t be remembered.
I don’t doubt for a second that Rafaela should be playing CF rather than 2B, but I’m surprised folks are so quick to conflate correlation for causation. Seems just as likely his true talent level against MLB-caliber pitching is closer to the 87 wRC+ he’s run over his career than the 114 he had as of July 11.
I don’t disagree that he was probably playing over his head for a while, but he is underperforming his xwOBA this year. ZiPS sees him at 94, and maybe he’s better than that, but between that, his current wRC+, and his xwOBA, I feel pretty comfortable with “league average-ish” as a descriptor of his likely offensive contribution going forward.
I think there’s enough there in terms of changes in things like chase rate, which went from being absolute worst in the league to merely extremely high from last year to the first half of this year, while also noting that “over his career” was about a year of games in his early 20s before this season, that he’s a much better hitter than the hitter he is as a second baseman. Yes, probably a guy who settles in the 95 wRC+ area in CF if I had to guess, but that’s so much better than what he does at second base.
I never understood why they would move his glove out of CF especially after things started clocking this year with the bat unless he was also a great infielder as well which he is not. The problem remains the same they have more high quality outfielders than they have positions to play them.
It’s crazy that they didn’t move an outfielder at the deadline. I know Duran has a certain effect on the rest of the team when he’s right, but he’ll never be more valuable than he was almost exactly a year ago, and as much as I like Abreu, right field really was the most obvious fit for Anthony, and the years of control left would have done well as part of a deal to get a non-rental starting pitcher back. Obviously the cost would be high, that’s what you get for needing a playoff-quality starting pitcher at the deadline, but it really would have fixed multiple roster composition issues, and you at least have internal options for 2nd base, as underwhelming as they all are.
Then again, nearly every problem this team has had this year has been that they looked at obvious outlier performances and just assumed they would be the same this year with minimal regression. Houck, Crawford, Hamilton, Duran, Wong, etc. all had clear peak seasons in their late 20s, and somehow there was no plan made for if any of them regressed. The contingency plans for starting pitchers were more guys potentially coming back from injuries, and that has gone the most predictable possible way, with Giolito being decent, Buehler struggling, and Sandoval not being back at all.
I understand not wanting to trade the only left fielder who appeared to have figured out how to play the Green Monster and put up 6+ wins last year, nor the guy who is an absolute perfect fit for that huge right field (and who is in a strict platoon anyways), nor the guy who is #3 in wRC+ on the team at age 21, nor the guy who up until about a month ago was the second most valuable player on the team, nor the guy with minimal trade value who has carved out a neat second act of his career by destroying left handed-pitching.
I do not understand how the answer to this condundrum became “we have to make room for Masataka Yoshida” and “our mercurial but talented center fielder has figured things out after we stopped trying to force him to be a shortstop, let’s move him back to the infield.”
Having too many good outfielders is acceptable, but having too few players who can play the infield is a very bad situation. I find it very difficult to believe that between Romy Gonzalez, Kristian Campbell, David Hamilton, Nick Sogard, the previously DFA’d DJ LeMahieu, the not-traded-at-the-deadline Paul DeJong or Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Luis Rengifo, or the-traded-for-a-guy-who-was-going-to-get-DFA’d Jose Caballero that they couldn’t have cobbled together something better at second base for basically no cost at all. And this is before we discuss trading for an actually good player to play second base, and before we talk about the situation at first base, although if they can sign and fix Nathaniel Lowe that would qualify as a win (big if there).
I like the Lowe idea! It seems like the Sox like making meaningful trades at the end of the year (these past few years) so we will see what happens.
I wonder if their outfielder/infielder imbalance is due to how they seem to look for defensive back type athletes like Rafaela and are hesitant to lose their speed and athleticism by putting them in infield positions like first base until the last second.
Rafaela was an absolute coup, they signed him for something like a $10K bonus. There’s no way that anyone could have predicted that he would become a starting caliber player at all. And the Wilyer Abreu situation was also them knowing the Astros’ prospects better than they did.
I think the real story isn’t a preference or anything like that, it’s just that the Red Sox hit big on several of their super athletic guys like Duran, Anthony, and (potentially) Campbell, and their infield guys had a more normal developmental trajectory (Mayer, Meidroth, Yorke, Blaze Jordan, Mikey Romero). They’re just way better at scouting the football-athleticism outfielder types than the guys with the hands and tools to stick in the infield. It doesn’t mean they’re super bad at it, but it does mean they got imbalanced quickly. And the team seemed to think that positions were optional for several years (and maybe still) so the concept of trading for a guy who could handle the middle infield wasn’t really on the table.
However I will reiterate what I said in the last comment which is that the real issue is that the team loaded up on guys whose best position was 1B or DH with Devers, Casas, and Yoshida, and somehow they’ve let the sunk cost of the Yoshida deal dictate what they’re doing elsewhere (and also somehow wound up without a first baseman). Yoshida better win some games for the Red Sox because right now he fills a very similar role to Abreu except that his defense is worse.
Great call on the Lowe move – I guess it’s happening!
As to the other points, I tend to chalk up a lot to skill which may be better attributed to luck. Maybe I’ll try to be more careful there.
A lot of those first base types weren’t able to play first this year due to injury or refusal, so the Sox had holes at 2nd and 1st.
I’m really surprised yoshida has not clicked yet.
I would typically use RA/9 WAR when looking back on a player’s career. So for me, Wagner is still far ahead of Jansen in WAR. Wagner is 30.1 RA/9 WAR, while Jansen is 25.1. And that seems reasonable to me, because while their FIP- is comparable (63 and 64) for their careers, Wagner was much better at preventing runs (54 ERA- vs Jansen’s 65).
And despite having the better FIP, you didn’t account for league or the era they played in. Wagner’s FIP- is slightly better as mentioned, 63 vs Jansen’s 64.
I have a 3-reliever standard for the Hall of Fame: Mo, Eck, and Goose. That’s the standard. If you want to make a case that a reliever is Hall of Fame worthy they need to be compared to the most logical comp among those three.
The main objection I had to Wagner’s candidacy is the same as most relievers, that they simply don’t pitch enough to be valuable. All three of the players I listed overcame that in different ways. But Kenley Jansen is like Wagner where he doesn’t even have a thousand innings, if he insists on staying a closer very well might not get there, and if he does get there it’s going to pull down his numbers.
I get what you are saying but the change in pitcher usage (even since Rivera’s time) means that our statistical and mental HoF standards need to be adjusted for both starters and relievers or nobody will get in after Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, and Greinke. We’ve had this discussion before, but it’s possible nobody ever wins 200 games again, much less 300.
I’m okay with relievers not getting in again. I’m serious. Even if we think that WAR understates reliever contributions (IDK, I don’t think it’s that far off), Rivera has 39.1 fWAR, Eckersley has 61.8, and Gossage has 31.1. I’m pretty sure RA9 WAR tells a similar story, where there’s a huge gulf between them and everyone else.
As far as starters go, you have to adjust at least somewhat, but it’s totally fine if fewer starters get in now compared to the past. Even if it’s a lot fewer starters. I think we’re now used to scenarios where you have five Hall of Fame starters getting in over two years like in 2014-2015, and we’ll have a similar situation with Kershaw / Verlander / Scherzer in the future. How many Hall of Fame starters were inducted due to BBWAA votes between Bert Blyleven in 2011 and Nolan Ryan in 1999? Eckersley is the only one I saw, and he was most famous as a reliever and probably shouldn’t count as just a starter.
I think after the four you mentioned and Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole would have a good case if he stays in good health. And who knows, maybe we’ll be talking about Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes as slam dunk Hall of Famers five or six years from now, and we’ll have some better context as to how pitching trends have changed over time by the time they retire in like 2035 or 2040 anyway.
Part of my criteria is “can you tell the story of baseball without this guy?” I think you can’t do that for the modern game without relievers.
Sale almost certainly isn’t going to get 200 wins. Cole might. But even that is already a big step down from older standards.
I’m OK with a small hall, I’m just not OK with turning Cooperstown into the Hall of Mostly Just Great Power Hiiters.
Wins are irrelevant to me–Sale’s been great. It’s totally fine to lower standards when the standards are silly, but even beyond, that you can lower other standards as well.
But if each pitcher is becoming a smaller part of the game, then I think that’s a normal thing and nobody needs to force the issue to ensure that each era has the same representation of pitchers, especially relievers (most of whom probably shouldn’t have been inducted anyway).
And these things are cyclical. It’s really hard to figure out who is a Hall of Fame starter in an era where pitchers are so good, while in the 90s and 00s it was a lot easier to see who the great pitchers were.
And there is time to figure all of this out, because Scherzer, Kershaw, and Verlander are all still pitching and it’s entirely possible they will all try to run it back for another year. We’re at least five years away and probably more like seven years away from a time when there are no “future Hall of Fame” starters and a lot can change between now and then. How much we need to adjust downward will be a lot more obvious then than it is now.
Loved the Buck anecdote! Shows how there is such an important personal side to being a manager.
It made me wonder, how many times has a manager worn one, like Buck said, for personal reasons that aren’t the media’s business? A lot more often that most people think, I’ll bet.
I’d think it’s pretty common, actually. A MLB manager is dealing with 40ish individual personalities, backgrounds, and lives. I’m sure everyone can think of a time where they either missed work or mailed it in because of something that we’d probably not want to share with the media, even (especially?) as a public figure.
Easy, peasy on Matthews.
I thought: how could the answer possibly be anyone other than Eddie Mathews?
Yeah, as a Braves fan Mathews was easy. Chipper at 3 is also easy. Murphy and Andruw 4-5 in some order is easy to me too.
“Easy” versus “hard” is always on my mind when I do these, and one thing I’ve come to is that it can be highly subjective. This is a case where I thought “maybe too easy,” but at the same time, not everybody — even a FanGraphs reader — is well versed in baseball history and its records. Age factors in. I was alive for the later portion of Eddie Mathews’ career, but many readers weren’t, making it somewhat less likely they know of his accomplishments.
Oh, for sure. Not to toot my own horn, but if it’s a Braves question and it was “hard” for me, it’s probably a ridiculous question. I’m sure it’s the same for a lot of others regarding their favorite teams.
This week’s quiz wa pretty easy and fairly obvious.
Love the White Sox themed RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS!
Thanks. Always enjoy it when someone recognizes the theme, especially ones like this when it is anything but obvious. As I’ve said before, there isn’t always a theme, but more often than not there is one,
only 3 says! Trevor May was a strong dude!
*days
As for the Brewers and Pirates, a run saved is cheaper than a run scored. They probably don’t sell as many tickets, but run prevention is a cheaper way to win. Has any team been more consistently great at run prevention in recent years than the Brewers? You still need some runs scored and they have had their share of good hitters as well. Yelich for example. But run prevention is clearly the focus. Pirates seem to be somewhat getting the run prevention hint recently, but they are uniquely terrible at teaching hitting. Many players bats seem to regress in Pittsburg. Brian Reynolds used to be a great hitter. Not so much anymore. Cruz should be better. Hayes never figured it out. Etc.
I’m not totally sure that the Pirates are that good at run prevention, because a lot of it is their stadium. They’re clearly above average with their RA9-WAR of 15.4 but there is a reasonably large gap between #7 (the Reds, at 17.2) and the Pirates at #8 (at 15.4). And it’s reasonable to think that the Pirates might go down further with Hayes now in Cincinnati (and the Reds might go up). The Brewers used to go to extremes on defense, they fielded three center fielders and three shortstops for most of last year, and now it’s “only” two, and the Pirates definitely do not make that sort of commitment.
Besides, the real story isn’t that runs saved are cheaper than runs scored, it’s that defense is cheaper than pitching or hitting. I know there’s a team FRV somewhere out there that is better than just adding things up, but the Pirates are only +9 there and the Brewers are at +21 (again, with the Pirates’ best defender by far from this year on another team). They are probably going to have four or five spots open next year to fill with players (SS, 3B, corner outfield, and maybe catcher). And while Cam Devanney is a vaguely interesting candidate to try at shortstop he’s more of an average defender at shortstop than a great one. And the fans will be lucky if they splurge on Austin Hays.
I don’t know what the front office’s offers were for Mitch Keller but if they don’t trade him for good hitting prospects, the only obvious help in the upper minors is Cam Devanney, Rafael Flores, Termarr Johnson (blocked at second base), and Nick Yorke (blocked at his two natural positions of first and second base, although if Spencer Horwitz keeps hitting like this first base will be open). The whole situation is just terrible. This is a team that needs a Carson Benge-type, Aidan Miller-type of prospect in the upper minors and it is just not happening.
I will also say this about the Brewers’ (apparent) strategy: pitch-to-contact types are generally free-to-nearly-free (see Priester, Quinn) and when you have a plus-plus defense, you can get away with that sort of thing.
I think the “defense is cheaper than pitching or hitting” is very true, for multiple reasons. I also think that having really good fielding lets you shop in the bargain bin for pitching (though it never hurts to hit on a Mis every now and again).
Yes got Matthews, but his player page says he hit 512 homers. Also how did he play 157 games in 1953?
Joe Adcock did too.
Google tells me there were three ties?!?!?!
“It’s 98, and he’s also got seven feet of extension. It looks like he’s handing the ball to you.”
Every time I watch this guy pitch I’m blown away that human beings can hit him.