Sunday Notes: Max Scherzer Answers the Followup Question

A piece that ran here at FanGraphs just over a week ago elicited a good suggestion. Commenting on A Conversation With Max Scherzer on the Importance of Conviction, reader muenstertruck wrote the following:

“If you’re taking follow up questions, I’d like to hear how he differentiates intention and conviction from physical effort. How difficult is it to mentally commit to the pitch but only give it 90% so you keep some gas in the tank? Is it even possible to do so?”

Fortuitously, an opportunity to circle back with the future Hall of Famer came just a few days later when the Blue Jays visited Fenway Park for a weekend series. As expected — Scherzer likes talking ball — he was amenable to addressing said followup.

“Effort level and conviction are different,” Scherzer answered. “You can throw a pitch at 100% effort and still be mentally indecisive about it. You can also put out less than 100% effort and be mentally convicted in what you’re doing. Can things go hand-in-hand? Yes, but it’s not ‘more effort means more conviction.’ You can just be more mentally convicted.”

Scherzer had opined in our earlier conversation that you’re more likely to miss your spot when not fully convicted. What about throwing with full conviction at a 90% effort level? Does that make it easier to pinpoint your command?

“It depends,” Scherzer said to that question. “For me, to be more accurate takes a higher effort level. But there is a point where can get too wild in that sense. There is an optimal effort level to where you can hit your spot better, and the more effort you put in from there, it can [hurt your command].

“There is another factor in conviction,” continued Scherzer. “Are you trying to hit a spot, or are you trying to throw the nastiest pitch? Sometimes you want both. Sometimes you just need something to be… for example, on a high fastball you just need the pitch to be up, That might be more of an effort-type pitch, whereas if you’re throwing a specific pitch to a specific spot, it might be, ‘Hey, I’ve got to cut down on the effort and be absolutely convicted to get to that actual spot.’”

The 90% effort level the commenter cited was worthy of a further followup. How accurate is that number in terms of how low a hurler might go when delivering a pitch?

“It’s hard to put a number on it,” Scherzer replied. “You’re above that, but it’s definitely below 100%. There’s kind of a range. You call it game speed. If you’re ready to throw 100 pitches, you are going to be pacing yourself. You want to pitch deep into the game, so not every fastball is going to be a max-effort fastball. But you also don’t want to go below, say, 90%. If you do, you won’t be throwing the pitch at game speed.”

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

AJ Pollock went 1 for 4 against JT Chargois.

A.J. Pierzynski went 0 for 10 against B.J. Ryan.

J.D. Davis went 0 for 5 against J.A. Happ.

J.D. Martinez went 2 for 4 against A.J. Achter.

C.J. Cron went 3 for 10 against R.A. Dickey.

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Chase Burns was featured here at FanGraphs this past Thursday, the crux of my conversation with the Cincinnati Reds rookie having been his development. Prior to his being drafted second-overall 12 months ago, the right-hander played collegiately at Wake Forest University where he had access to a state-of-the-art pitching lab.

I asked Cincinnati GM Brad Meador about his club’s having selected Rhett Lowder (2023) and Burns out of the ACC powerhouse in back-to-back years.

“DJ [Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson] has a relationship with the guys at Wake,” Meador told me. “It helps to know exactly what they’ve done, and what you’re getting. They’re as advanced as anyone out there at developing pitchers at the collegiate level, so being able to get those guys and build on it is part of the solid foundation we’re building here.”

Did the Reds have a good idea of what kind of tweaks they might have Burns make after bringing him into the fold?

“We talk about it a little before we draft someone,” Meador replied. “But mostly it is getting them here and getting to know them a little bit more. We’re figuring out what they think works for them, and what they think they need to work on, before we dive too much into it.”

Recognizing underlying characteristics is predictably part of their scouting process. Much like Wake Forest, the Reds are cutting edge in how they approach pitching.

“Nick Christiani is our pitching cross checker,” explained Meador. “He and Eddie Lehr are kind of in charge of diving into that deeper, and presenting it to us in the draft. Then [president of baseball operations] Nick [Krall] takes it a step farther, handing it off to player development. After the draft, Nick Christiani will go into draft camp — he’s also one of our PD coordinators — and he’s in charge of that handoff.”

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A quiz:

Two players who hit 520 or more home runs went on to manage in the big-leagues for four or more seasons. Who are they? (Bonus question: name the hitter who finished with 511 home runs and later managed six-plus seasons.)

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NEWS NOTES

Tom Hufford was selected for the 2025 Bob Davids Award, SABR’s highest honor. Hufford is a founding member of the organization, which was formed in 1971. More information can be found here.

Bruce Bochy was honored with SABR’s Roland Hemond Award, which recognizes a baseball executive who has demonstrated a lifetime commitment to professional baseball scouts and scouting, and to player development history.

Hosken Powell, an outfielder who played for the Minnesota Twins from 1978-1981, and for the Toronto Blue Jays in 1982 and 1983, died on June 28 at age 70. Per his B-Ref bio page, Powell and Buck Showalter were roommates at Chipola College.

Billy Hunter, an infielder who played for four teams from 1953-1958, died on July 1st at age 97. The Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania native had been the last surviving member of the St. Louis Browns. He managed the Texas Rangers in 1977 and 1978 after spending several years on the Baltimore Orioles coaching staff.

Bobby Jenks passed away on July 4th at age 44 following a battle with cancer. A two-time All-Star who played for the Chicago White Sox from 2005-2010, and for the Boston Red Sox in 2011, Jenks recorded 173 saves and had a 3.53 ERA over 348 relief appearances. He was on the mound when the White Sox won the 2005 World Series.

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The answer to the quiz is Frank Robinson, who homered 586 times and managed 16 seasons, and Ted Williams, who homered 521 times and managed four seasons. The answer to the bonus question is Mel Ott.

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Addison Barger is a hot hitter on a hot team. The Toronto Blue Jays third baseman/outfielder got off to a slow start — seven weeks into the season he was batting .213 with just one home run — but then he began bashing baseballs. Since mid-May, Barger has banged out 10 home runs while logging a 152 wRC+. Moreover, he’s gone 12-for-39 with four doubles and three dingers as the Jays have surged into first place in the AL East while winning nine of their last 10 games. Yesterday he delivered an 11th-inning walk-off hit.

What is behind the 25-year-old second-year player’s breakout?

“I’ve just put in a lot of work,” said Barger, who had a 68 wRC+ over 225 plate appearances in his 2024 rookie season. “All of the tools are there — I have bat speed, obviously — so I’ve always had the capability. Other than that, nothing has really changed. I’d gone back and forth a few times [in the minors,] but now I’m back with my natural swing.”

Asked if he could elaborate, Barger allowed that his mental approach has evolved.

“That’s what’s changed the most,” he told me. “I’d say it has changed a ton. I’ve learned how hit certain pitches. Early on in my career, I only hunted fastballs.”

That meshed with what a scout for an MLB team had told me. What the evaluator had seen from Barger prior to this season was a hitter geared almost solely toward handling heaters. While he could juice a fastball, he was all too often bedeviled by off-speed pitches. Much for that reason, the scout was skeptical that the youngster could produce at the big-league level — an opinion he no longer holds.

Further pressed on his breakout, Barger said that he spends a lot of time in the cage — “I’m a big fan of the Trajekt” — focusing on recognizing shapes, as well on adjusting to off-speed when looking fastball. He’s also no longer just hunting heaters once the game starts.

“I sit on off-speed a lot now,” said Barger, whose bat speed ranks in the 95th percentile.” There are times I guess heater, but a lot of times I’ll look changeup or slider. I get a lot of those.”

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Mel Rojas Jr. became the KBO’s all-time leader in home runs by a foreign-born player when he went deep for the 175th time earlier this week. The 35-year-old Indianapolis, Indiana native is in his sixth season with the KT Wiz. Tyrone Woods (Dade City, Florida/Doosan Bears) held the record previously.

Cody Ponce is 11-0 with a 1.95 ERA over 115-and-two thirds innings for the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles. The 31-year-old former Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander has allowed 74 hits and fanned a league-best 161 batters.

Iori Yamasaki went eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts on Friday as the Tokyo Yomiuri Giants blanked the Hiroshima Carp 1-0. The 26-year-old right-hander is 8-2 with a 1.14 ERA over 95 innings on the season.

Sandro Fabian is slashing .309/.335/.472 with 10 homers and a 159 wRC+ over 316 plate appearances for the Carp. The 27-year-old outfielder is in his first NPB season after playing in the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers systems from 2015-2024. Fabian made his MLB debut with the Rangers last September and went 0-for-5.

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A random obscure former player snapshot:

Rick Camp had a big swing in an all-time classic. An Atlanta Braves pitcher with a particularly weak bat, Camp crushed a two-out, two-strike, game-tying home run in the bottom of the 18th inning of a July 4, 1985 contest against the New York Mets. The against-sky-high-odds glory was short-lived. The Mets proceeded to score five times in the top half of the 19th inning, then hang on for a 16-13 win.

All told, Camp appeared in 414 games for the Braves from 1976-1985, going 56-49 with 57 saves and a 3.37 ERA. At the plate, he went 13-for-175 with just the one home run.

Camp’s post-playing career included his being sentenced to three years in federal prison in 2005 for conspiring to steal over $2 million from an Augusta, Georgia community mental health center. He died in 2013.

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This past Monday, Boston’s Wilyer Abreu became the fifth player in modern-era (since 1901) history to hit both an inside-the-park home run and a grand slam in the same game. Jim Tabor was one of the four who’d done so previously, and his feat was arguably the most remarkable. Playing for the Red Sox at Philadelphia’s Shibe Park in the nightcap of a July 4, 1939 doubleheader, Tabor totaled two grannies, the second of them an inside-the-parker. He later added a solo shot, giving him nine ribbies as the Red Sox outscored the Athletics 18-12. His effort in the opener was also impressive: he went 3-for-5 with a double and a homer in a 17-7 Boston win.

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Sticking with July 4 feats, Michael Busch went deep three times on Friday as the Cubs clubbed the Cardinals 11-3. Making Busch’s performance especially remarkable is that he became the third Cubs’ player ever to homer three times in the same game against the Cards — and they all did so on Independence Day. Moises Alou turned the trick on July 4, 2003, and Hank Leiber on July 4, 1939. Kudos to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers for unearthing that fun fact.

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FARM NOTES

Pablo Nunez has 26 walks and just two strikeouts to go with a .343/.556/.433 slash line, one home run, and a 181 wRC+ over 99 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League. Signed out of Venezuela in January of last year, the 18-year-old outfielder is unranked on our Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects list.

Max Anderson is slashing .341/.391/.562 with 11 home runs and a 174 wRC+ over 302 plate appearances for the Double-A Erie SeaWolves. A second-round pick in 2023 out of the University of Nebraska, the 23-year-old second baseman is No. 22 on our Detroit Tigers Top Prospects list.

Zach Thornton has a 1.98 ERA, a 2.65 FIP, a 28.5% strikeout rate — and just a 4.0% walk rate — over 72-and-two-thirds innings between High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton. A fifth-round pick in 2023 out of Grand Canyon University, the 23-year-old left-hander is an honorable mention on our New York Mets Top Prospects list.

Jacob Bresnahan has a 3.16 ERA, a 3.22 FIP, and a 31.6% strikeout rate over 57 innings with Low-A San Jose. No. 26 on our San Francisco Giants Top Prospects list, the 20-year-old southpaw was drafted by the Cleveland Guardians in 2023, then dealt to his current organization in exchange for Alex Cobb at last summer’s trade deadline.

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Chelsea Janes is understandably impressed with James Wood. The Washington Post national baseball writer focused on the young outfielder when I asked her for a snapshot observation of the team she follows closely.

“The biggest all-star starting snub – both literally and figuratively – might be Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood,” Janes told me via email. “At 22, Wood is the most polished young hitter the Nationals, and maybe baseball more broadly, has seen since Juan Soto.  His .958 OPS is fifth in the majors behind Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, and Will Smith. His 162 wRC+ trails only those five hitters (stats as of Friday).
 
“But while his numbers clamor for attention, Wood is not the type to do so. He is a calm, quiet presence in the clubhouse, stoic as they come, though even he sometimes has trouble stifling a smile when he crosses home plate after his more absurd opposite-field home runs. At his age, Bryce Harper was the future of baseball and Juan Soto was the next Ted Williams, in part because both embraced the spotlight. Wood seems not to need it one bit.“

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

The Nationals don’t have a Trajekt, but they do have a VR program for pitch recognition and plate discipline. Spencer Nusbaum wrote about it for The Washington Post.

The Athletic’s Daniel Brown told of how Babe Dahlgren — “Lou Gehrig’s replacement” —helped launch the video revolution.

With strikeouts down, USA Today’s Gabe Lacques wonders if we’re watching the gradual death of Three True Outcomes.

At The Guardian, David Lengel wrote about the “Debacle in the desert: will the Athletics’ $1.75 billion stadium on the Vegas Strip ever be built?”

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Janson Junk has issued just two walks in 37-and-a-third innings this season. The Miami Marlins right-hander has a 3.62 ERA and a 1.83 FIP to go along with his 1.3% walk rate and 21.9% strikeout rate.

Christian Walker is slashing .354/.414/.789 with 20 home runs in 162 career plate appearances at Dodger Stadium.

The Boston Red Sox (née Boston Americans) have won 10,000 games since joining the American League in 1901. The Minnesota Twins franchise, which began as the Washington Senators that same year, incurred its 10,000th loss on July 1st.

The Seattle Mariners are 21-6 all-time versus the Cincinnati Reds.

Terry Francona hit the first of his 24 big-league home runs off of St. Louis’s Bruce Sutter in September 1981. Brad Mills — the longtime manager’s frequent bench coach — was alongside Francona in the Montreal Expos starting lineup that day.

Alex Rodriguez made his MLB debut on July 8, 1994. Nineteen days shy of his 19th birthday, A-Rod played shortstop, batted ninth, and went 0-for-3 as the Seattle Mariners lost to the Red Sox 4-3 at Fenway Park. Boston shortstop John Valentin turned an unassisted triple play in the top of the sixth inning, then led off the bottom of the frame with a home run to fuel a four-run Red Sox rally.

On July 9, 1971, Freddie “The Flea” Patek hit for the cycle — his home run broke a 3-3 tie in the ninth inning — as the Kansas City Royals topped the Minnesota Twins 6-3. It was one of 15 four-hit games the 5-foot-5 shortstop had in his career, another being on June 20, 1980 when he homered three times at Fenway Park.

On today’s date in 1991, Danny Tartabull homered three times in a losing effort as the Kansas City Royals fell 9-7 to the Oakland Athletics. The outfielder went deep twice against Bob Welch, and once against Gene Nelson.

Players born on today’s date include Jason Thompson, a left-handed-hitting first baseman who played primarily for Detroit and Pittsburgh in a career that spanned the 1976-1986 seasons. Thompson had 98 home runs and 354 RBI’s as a Tiger, and 93 home runs and 354 RBIs as a Pirate.

Also born on today’s date was Cardell Camper, a Boley, Oklahoma-born right-hander who appeared in three games and won his lone decision while pitching for the Cleveland Indians in 1977. Camper was later traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for 1980 AL Rookie of the Year “Super Joe” Charboneau.