Sunday Notes: Rebuffing Criticism, Bill Schmidt Likes The Rockies’ Direction
The Colorado Rockies have received their fair share of criticism since winning 91 games and earning a Wild Card berth in 2018. Four losing seasons have played a part in that, but so too have some questionable decisions, financial and otherwise. Four months ago — and he’s no lone wolf in having offered such a critique — my colleague Dan Szymborski called Colorado “The worst-run organization in baseball.”
My own coverage of the club, which has focused primarily on players, prospects, and coaches, has included neither criticism nor compliment. Which isn’t to say I’m not intrigued by brickbats thrown. I am, which led me to approach Colorado GM Bill Schmidt to get his perspective on some of what has been said about the team he’s been with for two-plus decades.
The first thing I asked Schmidt about was the October decision to fire hitting coach Dave Magadan and replace him with Hensley “Bam Bam” Meulens, who’d previously worked with the San Francisco Giants and, this past season, the New York Yankees.
“They’re different people with different experiences.” said Schmidt, a longtime scout who replaced Jeff Bridich (initially on an interim basis) as Colorado’s GM in May 2021. “Hensley had a lot of success with the Giants. There are certain things… I’ll let him talk about the certain things he believes in, but he and Bags were different types of players who have different ideas of what they consider important.”
Bringing “Bam Bam” on board is notable in part because he’s an outsider; the Rockies have often been called an insular organization. Schmidt bristled when asked about that claim. as well as about accusations that the team he leads lacks direction.
“We’ve brought some people in, but that’s neither here nor there,” said Schmidt. “I don’t think we’re stagnant. We have a belief that we think is strong, and if you ask anybody inside our organization, they will tell you the direction we’re going. We might not be up on top of the mountains screaming it out, but we know what direction we’re heading in.”
Philosophically-speaking, what exactly is that direction?
“We’re scout/development,” was the executive’s response to that question. “That’s who we are. Our foundation… not that we play all of our own guys — we will use guys to try to acquire what we need — but we’re going to give our guys opportunities.”
When The Athletic published an anything-but-complimentary critique of the organization in 2021 — Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke co-authored the piece — a poorly-staffed (and allegedly under-utilized) analytics department was among the criticisms. With that in mind, one more question was in order: What is the current status of the Rockies’ analytics department?
“We have some very sharp people working for us, and they’re part of our process,” Schmidt told me. “As a scout, I always used stat sheets. That’s analytics. I’ve always looked at the numbers to help make decisions. Look, I like the direction we’re heading in. I think our good days are ahead of us.”
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
George Scott went 2 for 47 against Gaylord Perry.
Roger Maris went 16 for 47 against Jim Perry.
Dale Murphy went 2 for 34 against Greg Maddux
Ryne Sandberg went 13 for 34 against Mike Maddux.
Marquis Grissom went 13 for 23 against Pedro Martinez.
Orlando Merced went 4 for 23 against Ramon Martinez.
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Jason Castro announced on Friday that he is retiring after 12 seasons as a big-league catcher. What comes next for the 35-year-old former first-round pick? I asked Castro about his post-playing-career future earlier this summer, suggesting that an analytics-focused coaching role would be a good fit if he chooses to remain in the game.
“We’ll see,” the Stanford University alum replied. “I haven’t given much thought to what will be next, but analytics are something I have a lot of experience with. I’ve learned a lot, starting from almost nothing, over the course of my career. There’s been a huge evolution, especially over the past six or seven years. So, we’ll see.”
It’s a safe bet that a lot of teams will approach Castro about a role in their respective organizations, be it on the field or in the front office. Some already may have.
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Who was better, Keith Hernandez or Don Mattingly? I asked that question in a Twitter poll earlier this week, and of the 335 people who weighed in, 51.9% went with the former captain of the New York Yankees. Hernandez, who played for the New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, and (briefly) Cleveland, captured 48.1% of the vote.
Mattingly had 2,153 hits, 222 home runs, a .361 wOBA, and a 124 wRC+. A six-time All-Star, he won an AL MVP, a batting title, and nine Gold Gloves.
Hernandez had 2,182 hits, 162 home runs, a .365 wOBA, and a 131 wRC+. A five-time All-Star, he won an NL MVP, a batting title, and 11 Gold Gloves.
Their respective WAR totals are what most separate them. Hernandez finished his career with 59.4, while Mattingly totaled just 40.7. (bWAR has Hernandez at 60.3, Mattingly at 42.4). With the caveat that WAR isn’t a be-all and end-all for determining “better,” Hernandez was indeed a cut above. No disrespect to Mattingly — a great player in his own right — but the wrong player won this poll.
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Sticking with polls, I also ran one asking which of Andy Pettitte or Gary Sheffield had the better career. Sheffield, who amassed 62.1 WAR over 22 seasons, garnered 64.2%. Pettitte, with 68.2 WAR over 18 seasons, received 35.8%.
Both players are currently on the Hall of Fame ballot, Sheffield for two more years, and — assuming he continues to get enough support to remain eligible — Pettitte for another six years. As of this writing, I haven’t put a checkmark next to either name on my own ballot. There is a good chance that will change for one of them in the coming days.
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A quiz:
Todd Helton has the most doubles, and most home runs, among players born in Tennessee. Which player born in the Volunteer State has recorded the most hits? (A hint: he amassed 54.2 bWAR, but was an All-Star in just two seasons.)
The answer can be found below.
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NEWS NOTES
Baseball America named Myrtle Beach Pelicans general manager Kristin Call their Minor League Executive of the Year. The West Virginia State University graduate has been with the Low-A affiliate of the Chicago Cubs since 2013.
The Seattle Mariners have promoted Andy McKay to Assistant General Manager. Formerly the organization’s Senior Director of Player Development, McKay was featured here at FanGraphs in a two-part interview in July 2020.
The Oakland Athletics have hired Mike McCarthy as their new bullpen coach. The analytically-driven 35-year-old was featured here at FanGraphs this past August while he was serving as the pitching coach for the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas.
The Cincinnati Reds followed up last month’s announcement that Bronson Arroyo would be elected to the club’s Hall of Fame by naming two more honorees on Tuesday. Danny Graves — the only player in MLB history born in Vietnam — pitched in 465 games for the Reds from 1997-2005. Gabe Paul was Cincinnati’s general manager from 1951-1960.
The Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame announced on Thursday that Richard Milo has been honored with this year’s Jack Graney Award, which is given to a member of the media who has made significant contributions to baseball in Canada through their life’s work. Milo covered the Montreal Expos from 1977-2004.
Rudy Hernández, who pitched for the Washington Senators in 1960 and 1961, died late last month at age 90. The right-hander from Santiago, Dominican Republic won four of six decisions while logging a 4,12 ERA over 43-and-two-thirds innings.
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The answer to the quiz is Vada Pinson, who logged 2,757 hits from 1958-1975. Born in Memphis, Pinson played 11 of his 18 seasons with the Cincinnati Reds.
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Brad Miller was the featured guest on Friday’s episode of FanGraphs Audio, and our conversation comprised not only baseball talk, but soccer talk as well. The Texas Rangers infielder/outfielder is a huge fan of the planet’s most popular sport, so with the World Cup in full swing — tough loss for Team USA yesterday — his perspectives were a perfect fit for this week’s pod. One question I asked the veteran of 10 big league seasons bridged both sports: Which of his current, or former, teammates is the best soccer player?
“Ooh, I’ve got one for you,” responded Miller, who spent the 2021 season with the Philadelphia Phillies. “He’s somebody that burst onto the scene this postseason [and] is on record as being my favorite pitcher, This guy is the smoothest customer. He’s got skills. It’s Ranger Suárez. Ranger is silky. He’d see the ball and his eyes would light up, so we’d go kick it around. Didi Gregorius has some skills, too. I’m not good at all — I just love kicking it around, and running and chasing after it — but Ranger’s got some feel. That’s my guy.”
The baseball-specific topics we touched on included his current boss. Now Texas’s Executive Vice President and General Manager, Chris Young was a veteran pitcher with the Mariners when Miller was playing his first full big-league season in Seattle. The then-35-year-old taught the youngster a lesson in dugout propriety.
“We were up big, [but] I was frustrated,” recalled Miller. “I kind of slammed my helmet into the bat rack. It was timed terribly… Chris came right up to me and was like, ‘Hey, that’s not you; that’s not what we do. We’re up 10. You can throw your stuff, you can show emotion, but you’ve got to play to the scoreboard and have feel.’ I’m glad he came right up to me and let me know, ‘Hey, that’s not what you’re going to be about.”
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FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Junior Caminero is 14 for 50 with five home runs for the Australian Baseball League’s Perth Heat. A native of Santo Domingo, the 19-year-old third baseman/shortstop is No. 4 on our Tampa Ray Bays Top Prospects list, and No. 60 in our Top 100.
Brisbane Bandits boast a best-in-the-ABL 12-2 record. T.J. Bennett, a 30-year-old native of Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada, has led the way with an 1.134 OPS and eight home runs.
NPB’s Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles have reportedly signed Maikel Franco. The 30-year-old third baseman has played for four MLB teams, primarily the Philadelphia Phillies, over the past nine seasons. Masahiro Tanaka, Yuki Matsui, and Jose Marmolejos were notables on Rakuten’s roster this past year.
Cleveland Guardians prospect Johnathan Rodríguez is slashing .268/.330/.329 for the Puerto Rican Winter League’s Gigantes de Carolina. The recently-turned-23-year-old outfielder had 26 home runs this seasons between High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron.
Toronto Blue Jays prospect Rainer Nunez is slashing .269/.309/.462 with the Dominican Winter League’s Estrellas de Oriente. The 24-year-old (as of today) first baseman has a league-best six home runs.
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It is well known that Adrián Beltré broke into the big leagues at a young age. The future Hall of Famer celebrated his 19th birthday two-plus months before debuting with the Los Angeles Dodgers in June of 1998. Not as well known is that he arguably never should have been allowed to sign with the team that employed him for his first nine professional seasons. As Daniel R. Levitt and Mark Armour chronicled in their entertaining-and-informative book Intentional Balk: Baseball’s Long and Sordid History of Innovation and Cheating, Beltré was signed illegally.
The Dodgers, as they would later admit doing, doctored the native of Santo Domingo’s birth certificate, as he was too young, per MLB rules, to ink a contract. Then-Commissioner Bug Selig would go on to fine the Dodgers $100,000 and bar them from scouting and signing players in the Dominican Republic for a year. What Selig didn’t do was even more notable. As the authors explained, “Beltré notwithstanding, players discovered to have signed before they were of age were typically declared free agents.”
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
Who were the best NPB players at each position in 2022? Yuri Karasawa offered his opinion at Japan Ball.
Writing for Fast Company, Bruce Schoenfeld looked at how DraftKings is making a billion-dollar bet that it can change the way fans care about sports.
Ten former first-round picks will be available in this Wednesday’s Rule 5 draft. J.J. Cooper provided a rundown, including how that number compares to previous years, at Baseball America.
Pitcher List’s Chrystal O’Keefe presented us with the top ten pitching performances of the 2022 season.
Vanya Ordóñez almost quit baseball before going on to play for the Mexican women’s baseball national team. Eugenio Tamés Alanís has the story at the University of California’s Annenberg Media.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
The St. Louis Cardinals turned 449 double plays this year, the most in the majors. The New York Yankees turned 248 double plays, the fewest in the majors.
The Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox had 19 outfield errors, which tied for the most in the majors. The teams charged with the fewest outfield errors were the New York Yankees (3) and New York Mets (4).
Jesse Winker has a .344/.440/.591 slash line in 109 plate appearances at Milwaukee’s American Family Field/Miller Park. He has a .203/.331/.294 slash line in 236 plate appearances at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park.
José Abreu has a .340/.397/.607 slash line in 335 plate appearances at Detroit’s Comerica Park. He has a .202/.250/.340 slash line in 100 plate appearances at Houston’s Minute Maid Park.
Jeff Bagwell went 0 for 24 against Scott Sullivan. Todd Helton and Jeff Kent went a combined 16 for 26 with five home runs against Sullivan.
Luis Tiant allowed 3,075 hits and 1,280 earned runs. He had 65.6 bWAR
John Smoltz allowed 3,074 hits and 1,284 earned runs. He had 66.4 bWAR.
The Minnesota Twins selected Shane Mack off of the San Diego Padres roster in the Rule 5 draft on today’s date in 1989. The underrated outfielder went on to log a 132 wRC+ with 17.9 WAR in a Twins’ uniform over the next five seasons.
On today’s date in 2007, the Florida Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, and Dallas Trahern.
Players born on today’s date include Dolly Gray, who went 15-51 with a 3.52 ERA pitching for the Washington Senators from 1909-1911. Born in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula — per his SABR biography, he listed his birthplace as the town of Atlantic Mine on his draft registration for World War II — the southpaw won 20 or more games five times with the Pacific Coast League’s Los Angeles Angels prior to making his MLB debut at age 30.
Also born on today’s date was Shano Collins, an outfielder/first baseman who played for the Chicago White Sox from 1910-1920, and for the Boston Red Sox from 1921-1925. The grandfather of 1970s outfielder Bob Gallagher, Collins counted 133 triples among his 1,687 career hits. Per his SABR bio, “No evidence exists to suggest that Collins was a part of the plot to throw the [1919] World Series to the Reds or had any knowledge of the plot.”
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
People who vote for Mattingly always talk about his peak. But his best 4 year consecutive peak was only 1.6 WAR better than KH in total, and from there KH blows him away. But people just don’t value first base defense in the first place, and over valued Mattingly’s defense in the second place. And of course they undervalue OBP.
Best 4 years consecutively:
KH: 23.1 WAR
DM: 24.7 WAR
Best 5 years consecutively
KH: 28.5
DM: 27.9
Best 6 years consecutively:
KH: 34.2
DM: 31.7
Best 7 years consecutively:
KH: 39.2
DM: 31.5
Bet 8 years consecutively
KH: 45
DM: 33.2
1998 on Beltre’s debut.
Thanks for the shout outs for two historically underrated players in Vada Pinson and Luis Tiant.
I have often think—how many different guesses would I have to take in order to get the quiz answer? If it’s not too difficult I would say I’d need another 3 or 4 guesses; if it’s hard I usually think it would take me another 15-20. This one probably would have been something like 5000.
My guess was Johnny Damon. Which was pretty good in the sense that he has a similar bWAR (56.3) and number of hits (2769) as Pinson. And also played in only two All-Star games.
In fact, using the old Bill James’ Similarity Scores, Pinson is Damon’s most similar comp and Damon is Pinson’s second (after Steve Finley).
Agreed. I thought Pinson was from Oakland, I never would have guessed him
Pinson is one of those guys who “should” be in the HOF based on what he did in the early part of his career. 30.6 bWAR from ages 20-24, incredible counting stats, great baserunner, plus outfielder in Center.
Yet, for some reason, he fell off starting at age 25. But I have no idea why. His SABR bio doesn’t mention any injuries. So I have no idea what happened to him. Something I’ve wondered about over the years…
He was still pretty good tbrough 26. But that was 1967.
He never quite recovered from the horror that was ’68. 😱
He did have a 2.7 WAR year for Cleveland but that was it.
Indeed. Over Pinson’s first ten seasons – 1958-1967 – his 42 WAR was third highest of all centerfielders in baseball, ninth highest of all outfielders. Not bad. Still, most of that time he was only the second best player on his own team.
I often wonder about the logic of asking people stuff that others have written about them. I’m not exactly sure what Bill Schmidt’s answer to that should have been. “Many people have said the organization that you are responsible for is a real mess. What do you think of that?”
All that said, his answer was just about as content-free as it gets. Doesn’t everyone think they’re a team that gets players as amateurs and then promotes them and gives them a shot? And then goes out and gets guys that they need, to fill holes? Are there teams out there whose identity is “we intentionally block our prospects?” Or “we trade most of our prospects to fill holes on our major league roster?”
The most telling piece of content I got from Schmidt is that he thinks analytics are 100% bullshit and legit may not even know what they are.
This. Statistics = analytics is such a simplistic way of thinking of it.
Pettitte is has thrown 276 innings of playoff games (MLB record that could stand a white) and if you look just at his playoff stats alone, which is against the very best, it’s a pretty good argument for induction.
a while…
He threw 77 WS innings and only gave up 5 HR. 3 of those in ’09 his last. 56 K to 26 BB.
Sheffield and Pettite are interesting comparisons for a few reasons. For one, both were caught up in steroid scandals but have offered explanations that (if we take them at face value) absolve them of doing so to gain an advantage on the field. But Pettite has largely been rehabilitated in the public eye because he’s never had a whiff of controversy otherwise while Sheffield picked fights with the media and his own organizations multiple times.
FWIW, I think Sheffield’s explanation for steroids (if we buy it, and I’m leaning towards buying it again) is far more exculpatory than Pettite’s, and the defensive metrics are perhaps unduly harsh on Sheffield as well.
I think that the lowest defensive rating should never go below the DH penalty. It’s not Sheffield’s fault that teams didn’t use him at DH or that his team was in the NL. He should have been DHing for a majority of his career, and he would in today’s game.
Hmm. Ok. Just changed my opinion to this, it makes too much sense.
>I think that the lowest defensive rating should never go below the DH penalty.
This makes no sense. Its almost like you have no idea what it is actually measuring. Those runs are actually lost, and that was completely his fault. Should he have DHed? Probably, but being in the field he cost his team more actual runs.
I’ve thought before it would be more fair to kinda do the opposite. Should the DH penalty be equal to the worst defender on the team? The manager actively said, this dude is worse than X player and we would be worse on the field if we played him out there. So why should the DH get a better defensive score than an actual fielder? This would I think more realistically value the DH defense to that team. Clearly it’s a different bar per team.
The Rockies have Drew Romo and Kris Bryant so I’m on board…They also seem to have made some progress with pitching? Rolison getting hurt sucked, Hughes and Hill have real talent
Is Drew Romo good? I see he’s ranked in the top 40 by BA, but I question the bat, admitting that I never watched him swing. What is your take on him?
True two way talent at catcher, one of the handful best prospects at the position…He hasn’t started hitting for power yet but has raw and got the ball in the air last year (39%)…I wish he took more walks but the contact and power could/should eventually play up in Coors
It’s a bit concerning that Schmidt considers player development and giving “our guys opportunities” to be hallmarks of the organization. The Rockies are notorious for blocking younger players with mediocre veterans past their prime.
And it’s crazy that a baseball decision maker in 2022 would equate stats he used to track in his scouting days to “analytics”. That’s just… wow.
Overall, Schmidt came off fairly defensive. If I were a Rockies fan this interview would not make me feel any better about the organization’s direction.
I agree that Schmidt’s interview/comments did more harm than good to the reputation of the Rockies organization. It is great to say that everyone in the organization knows “the direction we are going” and that we are scout/development, but it is all just marketing unless/until they prove the outsiders wrong. How about some examples of the club taking steps forward or some players that you have scouted/developed? Their prospects have recently underperformed relative to original expectations (Brendan Rodgers, Toglia, Ryan Vilade, and Grant Lavigne to name a few) so is that a flaw with scouting or developing or both? Just last year they went out and paid more money to Kris Bryant ($182M total value, $26M AAV) than home grown Trevor Story ($140 total value, $23.3 AAV), to occupy a less valuable defensive position. Schmidt’s commentary speaks of an organization that is arrogant and lacks perception, which basically matches what the public thinks of them. He even referred to Dave Magadan as Bags, when I thought his nickname was Mags. Total frustration for a Denver resident who yearns for the Rockies to have sustained success.
I’m not sure there is much value in comparing players like Mattingly who had injuries that took away a large part of their career or diminished a large part of it. I think most people are confident that had his back not given out, Mattingly would have had a notably better career. Maybe KH still would have had more WAR and been a better player, but why bother with the comparison? In general, comparing players who played differing amounts is difficult. Was Bert Blyleven better than Pedro Martinez? He had between 10-20 more WAR depending on your preference. That is a lot. Which pitcher do you think it would have been easier to get on base against? Clearly Pedro better in the ways that matter.
A good article, overall. i enjoyed reading it
Bill Schmidt says the Rockies are “scout/development”. And the Rockies just promoted Dick Montfort’s son, Sterling (age 30) as Director of Scouting. Sounds like a suck up by the GM for an incompetent front office.
Liking the direction the Rockies are going without realizing the Rockies suck is the culture of the Rockies front office.