Archive for 2010 al playoff rotations

Going into the season, the Yankees looked like they might have the best starting rotation in the league. Things didn’t quite work out that way: Javier Vazquez had an unforeseeable collapse (I mean, “obviously can’t pitch in New York”), Andy Pettitte got hurt, A.J. Burnett Burnetted the season. The Yankees’ group of playoff starters still looks good against all of baseball once their updated CHONE projections are taken into account (using CHONE’s projected context-neutralized ERA and FIP derived from the projected line). However, the Yankees staff becomes less intimidating once compared with the Twins, Rangers, and Rays. This is not to say that the Yankees have the worst rotation in the AL playoffs, but it is not the clear advantage for them one might have expected in March.

1) CC Sabathia CHONE 3.28 nERA, 3.60 FIP
2010: 4.8 WAR, 3.55 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 3.34 tERA, 3.18 ERA

To be clear: I don’t think CC Sabathia should win the AL Cy Young. Nonetheless, 2010 isn’t a constant, either, and if in earlier posts I seemed to give Sabathia a bit of the short shrift, it may have been due to an overemphasis on the current season. Yes, the most recent season carries the most weight, but 2008 and 2009 also (should) figure into estimates of a player’s true talent. When everything is taken into account, while Sabathia has been outperformed in 2010 by fellow playoff pitchers Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano as well as others not in the playoffs, he’s probably still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and his CHONE projection reflects that. Sabathia’s strikeout and walk rates have declined a fair bit from his monster 2008, and a (very) small bit from 2009, but are both still very good. He’s still a horse, averaging about seven innings a start. This season his groundball rate is up to around 50%, making him an even tougher opponent. A number of pitchers clearly had better seasons than Sabathia in 2010; but he still matches up with anyone in the playoffs.

2) Andy Pettitte CHONE 4.27 nERA, 4.23 FIP
2010: 1.9 WAR, 3.96 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, 4.04 tERA, 3.17 ERA

Pettitte’s WAR is relatively low because injuries limited him to 125 innings over 20 starts so far this season. His ERA is excellent, but Pettitte doesn’t have a recent track record of being this much better than his FIP and xFIP, and his tERA is in line with FIP/xFIP as well. Pettitte isn’t a groundball machine any more. His strikeout rate isn’t average, but it isn’t terrible, and he avoids walks. Pettitte is far from dominating, but he is still a good pitcher when he’s healthy, and the Yankees really need to him to be healthy.

3) Phil Hughes CHONE 3.9 nERA, 4.10 FIP
2010: 2.0 WAR, 4.29 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, 4.02 tERA ,4.21 ERA

Hughes has had a bit of a rough time of it lately, and although he hasn’t become the ace some thought he would be, he’s had a solid if unspectacular season. In the transition into the rotation from the bullpen he has predictably lost some strikeouts, but his K rate is still good, and he has continued to do well in avoiding walks. Hughes’ main problem is that he’s been one of the more extreme flyball pitchers in baseball this season, which, combined with an average HR/FB rate, has led to a lot of homers. Hughes’ numbers up fairly well against #3 starters in the AL playoffs. However, although Yankee Stadium is relatively neutral with respect to run scoring generally, it seems to favor the home run, which could be a problem for Hughes in the playoffs given his skill set.

4) A.J. Burnett CHONE 4.16 nERA, 4.46 FIP
2010: 1.0 WAR, 4.81 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 4.77 tERA, 5.33 ERA

Burnett didn’t quite (ahem) deliver what the Yankees were paying for in 2010. They didn’t expect a fourth starter, but that’s what he will be in the playoffs. In the first round, the Yankees are hoping Sabathia can go on short rest so Burnett won’t have to pitch at all. That’s a good idea. Putting the contract and expectations aside and comparing Burnett with the other fourth starters in the playoffs, he comes off okay. Although his strikeout rate is down, it’s still around average, and his walk rate is almost exactly the same as his career rate. When you compare his 2010 numbers to other #4 playoff starters like Nick Blackburn and Tommy Hunter, he’s the the better pitcher. Only three years and about $50 million dollars left on a guy I just tried to compliment with favorable comparisons to Nick Blackburn and Tommy Hunter.

I haven’t covered potential injury problems recurring with, e.g., Andy Pettitte. It is clear that the Yankees would not be too thrilled at the prospect of having to start Javier Vazquez (whose stunning 2010 collapse deserves a detailed analysis of its own) or Ivan Nova in a playoff game. Almost as frightening (or more) for Yankees fans would be that such a situation would force Burnett to start in the ALDS rather than potentially being skipped. Pettitte and Hughes compare well to other #2 and #3 starters in the AL playoffs, although I think the Rangers have an edge against them with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. The Yankees obviously are counting on Sabathia quite heavily to match up with other teams’ aces, pitch deep into games, and possibly pitch on short rest to minimize the amount of Burnett. This last point is especially important if the Yankees’ opponent decides to pitch their ace on short rest as well. It will be fascinating to watch it all shake out, and some surprises inevitably are going to make me look foolish.

The Tampa Bay Rays clinched a spot in the American League playoffs last night, ending a bitter drought. It isn’t over yet — there are 18-month-olds who have never seen a Rays pennant winner (that is what a certain left-handed ace should be embarrassed about), but it is an essential step. Ahem.

Although the Rays have done a good job of run-prevention overall (and much credit here must go to their excellent fielders), questions remain about their starting pitching heading into the playoffs. As in previous posts about the Twins’ and Rangers’ playoff rotations, in addition to listing certain 2010 stats for each pitcher, I will also refer to CHONE’s updated pitcher projections (both CHONE’s neutralized component “nERA” as well as FIP derived from the stat lines) to get a sense for each pitcher’s “true talent.” There is still some ambiguity as to exactly who will be in the playoff rotation (Niemann/Davis) and what order they will go in (Shields/Garza), and I’m not claiming to know for sure, so take the “ordering” with a grain of salt; that’s not the focus of the post. And keep in mind this is just about the starting rotation compared with other playoff teams, not an evaluation of the team as a whole. Starting pitching is important, but it isn’t the whole story.

1) David Price CHONE 4.02 nERA , 4.16 FIP
2010: 4.4 WAR, 3.44 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 3.32 tERA, 2.73 ERA

In 2010, Price has shown signs of being the ace the Rays need. His strikeout rate has been excellent and he has cut down on the walks from 2009. Still, he isn’t as good as his ERA, and his xFIP likely indicates good fortune on fly balls. His CHONE “true talent” projection might irk some, but one can’t simply focus on the current season while ignoring prior performance. Price is a tremendous young pitcher, but just as a closer look at his numbers shows that he shouldn’t win the Cy Young award, they also show that it would be premature to say that he’s one of the top aces in the playoffs. Nonetheless, he gives the Rays a good chance to win every time he takes the mound, no matter who the opponent.

2) James Shields CHONE 4.09 nERA , 4.06 FIP
2010: 2.3 WAR, 4.27 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 4.45 tERA, 5.04 ERA

Who had the better game: Pitcher A, who pitched six innings, struck out seven, walked two, and got 10 ground balls, six fly balls, and two liners; or Pitcher B, who pitched 6.2 innings, struck out three, walked three, and got seven ground balls, 11 fly balls, and three liners? It has to be Pitcher A, right? Both games were this past Sunday, and Pitcher A got the loss after giving up 5 earned runs, while Pitcher B got the all-important win and gave up no runs. Pitcher A is James Shields, and Pitcher B is Bruce Chen. That pretty much sums up Shields’ season.

Yes, his ERA is terrible, but Shields leads all qualified pitchers in HR/FB ratio. In other words, Shields is probably having more than his share of bad luck (witness his career rate of 11.8%), and he’s only 40th among the same group in FB% — below David Price, which explains why Shields’ xFIP is better than Price’s. Shield’s walk rate is up, but it is still excellent at 2.22 per 9 IP, and his K rate has jumped to 8.44 per 9 IP. Despite his batted-ball profile being about the same as usual, he has by far the highest BABIP of his career. This isn’t to say that Shields is a great pitcher (read this for a deeper look into a possible cause of his home run problems this season), but both this season’s peripherals and CHONE’s projection indicate that he’s probably a very good #2.

3) Matt Garza CHONE 4.23 nERA , 4.28 FIP
2010: 1.7 WAR, 4.53 FIP, 4.56 xFIP, 4.67 tERA, 3.92 ERA

The rich man’s Armando Galarraga! It’s a joke, but there is an element of truth to it, as his no-hitter masks a mediocre season. It isn’t clear whether Garza or Shields will pitch second in the rotation, but I think Shields is the better pitcher. Garza has the better ERA, but Shields has the better FIP, xFIP, and tERA this season. Garza’s HR/FB rate doesn’t indicate he has had bad luck, and he isn’t much of a groundballer. He doesn’t give up many walks, but his K rate this season is unexceptional after being over eight per nine innings last season. Garza is a decent pitcher, but he should not be expected to dominate.

4) Jeff Niemann CHONE 4.42 nERA , 4.56 FIP
2010: 1.0 WAR, 4.75 FIP, 4.41 xFIP, 4.51 tERA, 4.49 ERA

Niemann has been battling shoulder trouble, and it isn’t clear yet whether he or Wade Davis will be the Rays fourth starter. Whatever the reason, Niemann has taken a step back this season after a good 2009. His K rate improved, but is still below average. In 2009, he primarily succeeded by not giving up home runs and walks; and while, like Shields, his home run problems this season are at least partly a random fluctuation, his walk rate going up combined with unexceptional strikeout and groundball skills doesn’t make up for it very much. Still, if he’s healthy, he’s certainly a better #4 option than the likes of Nick Blackburn and Tommy Hunter, and arguably even A.J. Burnett at this point.

5) Wade Davis CHONE 4.85 nERA , 4.97 FIP
2010: 0.9 WAR, 4.83 FIP, 4.86 xFIP, 4.61 tERA, 4.14 ERA

Davis probably disappointed a good chunk of Rays fans with his first full season in the majors. Whether or not those expectations were realistic is a question for another time. Davis generated neither gaudy strikeout nor groundball numbers this season, and his walk rate this season has been average-ish. While his numbers taken together put him in the same category with the aforementioned Hunter and Blackburn, I think his superior strikeout ability and youth puts him a small step ahead of them at the moment (and a larger one for the future). The Rays probably don’t want to depend on Davis in the playoffs, but that could be said of every other team and their #4 starter, and if Niemann is ready to go, they won’t have to, anyway.

Most teams in baseball would love to have the Rays’ rotation (or their entire team, for that matter), but it doesn’t stand out as much in the playoff field. The Rays’ starters aren’t “severely outclassed” or anything like it, but the rotation isn’t a particular strength relative to the other teams. Of the AL playoff teams, the Rays’ rotation is probably the least likely to carry them through the playoffs if their offense has trouble producing or if the bullpen falters. They do have a bit more depth than the other teams. The main difference is that Price isn’t obviously that one dominating pitcher like Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano, or (at least in the past) CC Sabathia. But (pardon the cliché) anything can happen in one game, especially when a young star-in-the-making combines an outstanding group of fielders.

This past weekend the Rangers clinched the AL West, their first division championship since 1999. Many things have gone well for the Rangers this season, and while a full look back will be worth doing after the playoffs, this post, like Friday’s on the Minnesota Twins, is a forward-looking post about their starting rotation going into the American League playoffs.

The simplistic take on past Rangers teams has been “good hitting, bad pitching.” This has always been at least a bit problematic in the past because the Rangers’ home park has tended to exaggerate both their hitters’ prowess and their pitchers’ futility, at least when looking at raw stats. This season, they’ve hit well, but their pitching has taken a step up. One season’s stats don’t tell the whole story, so while I’ll list each player’s 2010 statistics, I’ll also include numbers from the most recent update of CHONE’s pitcher projections (using CHONE’s context-neutral component nERA and also a FIP I derived from the stat line) to give a sense of each pitcher’s current “true talent.”

1) Cliff Lee, CHONE: 3.29 nERA , 3.16 FIP
2010: 6.6 WAR, 2.66 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 2.75 tERA, 3.29 ERA

I’d call Lee the other forgotten AL Cy Young candidate, except I just remembered that what a player does in May and June doesn’t count for awards voting. But hasn’t Lee been a lot worse in Texas, anyway? Let’s see, his K/9 rate is slightly higher. His walk rate has doubled all the way up to over one per nine innings, and his HR/FB rate skyrocketed to almost league average. His xFIP in Seattle was 3.21; in Texas, it is 3.35. Whatever might be going on with Lee’s back, it looks to me like he’s basically the same pitcher as he was in Seattle, except he forgot not to let his HR/FB ratio regress to the mean when moving from one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league to one of the most hitter-friendly parks. Since 2008, Cliff Lee been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Of the likely AL playoff starters, only Francisco Liriano and CC Sabathia really match up with Lee.

2) C.J. Wilson, CHONE: 3.13 nERA,* 3.53 FIP*
2010: 4.2 WAR, 3.58 FIP, 4.23 xFIP, 3.78 tERA, 3.15 ERA

I include the asterisks because it looks like CHONE is still projecting him as a reliever. I’m not sure how CHONE or other projection systems handle reliever-starter switches, and obviously it needs to be accounted for. The (very) general rule is to add one to a reliever’s FIP/ERA to see what he would produce as a starter. That is a only a general guideline, though, and Wilson has outperformed all but the loftiest expectations of his transition into a starting role. Wilson walks a lot of batters, and his 4.23 xFIP reflects some good fortune on fly balls (5.1% HR/FB ratio, the league average this season is about twice that). However, Wilson strikes out a lot of hitters and keeps the ball on the ground enough to make it work.

3) Colby Lewis, CHONE: 3.47 nERA , 3.48 FIP
2010: 4.4 WAR, 3.52 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 3.51 tERA, 3.72 ERA

Lewis has probably been better than Wilson; he has a better FIP, xFIP and tERA. Lewis hasn’t quite had Wilson’s good fortune on fly balls (although Lewis certainly hasn’t been unlucky) , and that’s a bit more of a problem because he’s a flyball pitcher. However, he has a very good walk rate and a higher 2010 K/9 rate than any of the other starters on Texas’ staff.

4) Tommy Hunter, CHONE: 4.83 nERA , 5.07 FIP
2010: 0.7 WAR, 5.02 FIP, 4.75 xFIP, 5.20 tERA, 3.83 ERA

…and then there’s Tommy Hunter. Yes, his ERA is good this season, and yes, xFIP indicates he’s has some bad luck. But he’s basically the Rangers’ version of Nick Blackburn. I guess Hunter strikes out a few more hitters than Blackburn, but he also walks more and gives up more fly balls. Basically, he’s an acceptable back-of-the-rotation starter during the regular season who a team really shouldn’t want to count on during the postseason.

The good news for Rangers fans is that Texas may not have to start Hunter in the Divisional Series, as the team is considering pitching Lee on short rest. As far as I can tell, the Rangers are the only team in the American League with three starters each over 4.0 WAR so far this season. Assuming Lee is healthy (and I doubt the Rangers would consider pitching him on short rest if they didn’t think so), the combination of Lee, Lewis and Wilson may be the best “top three” in the AL playoffs.