Archive for 2010 organizational rankings

Beginning with the obvious and oft-repeated: The 2010 Tampa Bay Rays have the third best current talent in the American League.* But they are also the third most talented team in their division. This team has far too much talent to get any pity from me, though.

* I’d say “all of baseball,” but one could make an argument for the Phillies (Thanks, Doc!).

Straight up (not considering contracts or age), I’d probably take the 2010 Rays’ position players as a group over just about any other in baseball. They have something of a hole with Pat Burrell (possibly platooning with [shudder] Hank Blalock) at DH, although they could do much worse. Matt Joyce is probably around an average performer in right field, although if he’s platooned with ageless defensive-whiz Gabe Kapler, the Rays could get above-average performance out of the position. Those worried about Kelly Shoppach’s contact problems forget that even with his worst offensive projection (ZiPS), he’s an above-average catcher. It’s a cliche to say that a team has bench players “that could start for a lot of teams,” but it’s true of Willy Aybar and Sean Rodriguez.

The next “rung” for most teams contains a few above-average players. The Rays, in contrast, have five “above-above average” players here, guys who are around 3.5-4.5 WAR: Jason Bartlett, Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, and Carl Crawford. I know that is inadequate praise, but if I went on about all the individual talents on this team, this post would be 2,000+ words.

That’s it for the position players. Oh, yeah. Evan Longoria is the best third baseman in baseball. No, not just the “best value.” The best third baseman in baseball. Period.

Pitching lets the Rays down. Put away the torches and pitchforks. The bullpen is good enough (despite J.P. Howell’s injury concerns) with off-season acquisition Rafael Soriano and Grant Balfour both being strong options. Many, many teams would love to have James Shields and Matt Garza at the top of their rotations, not to mention Jeff Niemann and (especially) youngsters like David Price and Wade Davis. What I mean by “lets the Rays down” is that when I look at the Rays’ projections next to New York’s and Boston’s, the biggest difference is in the starting pitching. Again, it isn’t that Shields, Garza, et. al. aren’t good. But there is a sizeable gap between, say, Shields and Garza (each project at around four WAR) and guys like CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Javier Vazquez,* and Josh Beckett (each project at around five WAR).

* I actually had a Tampa Bay fan bring up Javy’s 2004 in New York as a reason he won’t be good for the Yankees in 2010. C’mon, Rays fans, I expect that kind of thing from Red Sox and Yankees fans, but not you, too!

I am not claiming that the Rays are “doomed because of their pitching.” They are definite contenders for the wildcard and even the divisional title. It is tough going up against Boston and New York, but the Rays have substantial hope. While the Rays’ rotation may not project to be as dominant as those of their chief rivals, it is younger. This means that there is more variance in the projections, and thus they have a greater chance of might be better than projected (of course, it also means they might be worse). The relative youth of the team as a whole means likely continued improvement and less attrition. While some might think the Rays have to “win now” (2010) because of Crawford and Pena’s expiring contracts, some of their best players are still developing, and much near-ready talent looms in the minors, as well: Jeremy Hellickson, Reid Brignac, and, above all, Desmond Jennings (who might show up sooner rather than later).

The Rays might not be the divisional favorites in 2010, but they are contenders, and they will be in 2011, and… well, that’s for the “Future Talent” post.

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From their divisional championship in 2000 through of their last playoff appearance 2006, the Oakland Athletics had the second best regular season winning percentage and run differential in the major leagues, behind only the Yankees. Expanding the scope to include the non-winning seasons of 2007-2009, they still have the third best winning percentage and run differential in the American league for the Decade of the Aughts, behind only New York and Boston. Are the As prepared to return from their exile from contention after three years of mediocrity?

While Oakland’s current team doesn’t feature standouts like its excellent teams of the early 00s (although Zombie Eric Chavez lingers on as perhaps the highest paid backup 1B/3B in baseball history), like the 2006 team, the team has an even distribution of average and above-average starters. The only projected weak spot around the diamond is at shortstop, but even there, neither Cliff Pennington nor Adam Rosales is a replacement level scrub. The longstanding 3B problem (due to Chavez’s injuries) has been resolved for the moment with Kevin Kouzmanoff, who isn’t anything special with the bat or glove, but is a league average player or perhaps a bit better. Injuries and age have taken their toll on second baseman Mark Ellis, but his excellent glove makes him valuable. At first base, Daric Barton may have disappointed in the past, but he’s still only 24, the projection systems still like his offense, and he’s a slick fielder. The underrated Kurt Suzuki is a real asset at catcher. Despite Jack Cust’s down year in 2009, both ZiPS and CHONE still have confidence in his ability to produce at the plate, and should he or Barton fail, the As’ #1 prospect, power-hitting 1B/DH Chris Carter, might be ready to step in. Along with the Mariners, the As sport one of the most obvious “three center fielder” outfields in baseball. Coco Crisp, Rajai Davis, and Ryan Sweeney would each probably be above-average in center field; despite less-than-intimidating bats, the gloves are good enough that all three project as above-average players. Injuries are a concern with all three, but reserves Gabe Gross (yet another defensive standout) and Travis Buck could start for many teams. Moreover, the As’ #2 prospect, outfielder Michael Taylor, is just about ready for the big leagues.

Although the offense should be better in 2010, the strength of this team still lies (and will need to lie) in run prevention. The fielding should be excellent, but the pitching has to do its part. Free agent signee Ben Sheets is a wild card, given his injury history and (if one puts weight in such things) his Spring Training performance, but even if he isn’t the #2 pitcher the projection systems see, the As aren’t totally reliant on him. 22-year old Brett Anderson is likely their best starter, and Dallas Braden and Justin Duchsherer also projecting as above-average. Relief pitching is a major strength; Brad Ziegler, Andrew Bailey, and Michael Wuertz are all good relievers, and if Joey Devine can come back from his injury, this could be one of the best bullpens in baseball.

The As are far from perfect, but few teams outside of the AL East come close. The As’ starters may not be able to match up with Seattle’s Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, but their offense is probably a bit better than the Mariners’. They don’t have the offense of the Angels or the Rangers, but they will field better than the Angels and pitch better than the Rangers. The As have a lot of young players, so there is a lot of volatility in their projections — perhaps they’ll only win 70, or perhaps youngsters like Anderson, Carter, and Taylor will carry them to 90 wins. I’m probably higher on the As’ current chances than other FanGraphers, and I’m not saying they’re the best team in the AL West, the most evenly matched division in baseball. But from this pre-season vantage point, it’s a four-team race that the As have a non-trivial chance of winning.

There’s something here. It’s unlikely much will come of it for reasons I’m sure Dave Cameron will cover later today… And that has to be incredibly frustrating for my boy Michael Jong and that one Marlins fan (or was it a homeless person who visited a Salvation Army shop with slim pickings?) I saw in Arizona… that has to be about it, right? It’s not like ownership has even earned that.

It’s too bad. The Marlins have a good core put together by a smart front office working with one hand tied behind their back. Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Hanley Ramirez is the best shortstop in baseball, and he’s only 26. ‘Nuff said. Dan Uggla’s defense, unlike Ramirez’s, appears to still be pretty bad at second, but his bat is still pretty good, and he’s an above average player. The corner infield is less inspiring, particularly with Jorge Cantu (and okay hitter but a dreadful fielder) still at third base, while something like a younger version of Cantu, Gaby Sanchez, patrols the area around first. Sanchez may just be holding down the fort until the team feels Logan Morrison is ready (and that may be soon). All three are competent, none are inspiring (although Morrison is just 22 and thus has a fair bit of upside). The outfield is good, too. The redoubtable Cody Ross was never great in center field, his defense is a plus in the corners and overall he’s probably about an average player or a bit better. Left fielder Chris Coghlan, another good young bat from the farm, would probably be playing second base this season if the club had been able to trade Dan Uggla (or moved him to third) as they wished. Anyway, Coghlan hits and fields well enough to be above average overall in left field. The long-awaited Cameron Maybin will be getting his first full-time shot in center field, and while some analysts aren’t as high on his immediate stardom as others, it seems to me he’ll get there soon enough, and with that bat and glove, it’s hard to see him being any worse than above average in 2010. In John Baker and Ronny Paulino, the Marlins have two decent catchers.

It’s the pitching that will get them. 26-year old Josh Johnson is a legitimate ace, or close to it, and the Marlins were forced by the mean-old MLBPA to extend him for four years. Isn’t there any mercy in the world for classy art dealers? Ricky Nolasco is also above average, and may still be more than that. After that, it gets pretty ugly, unless you think Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller are going to shock everyone and fulfill the promise they seemed to have long ago. As for the bullpen, well, you get what you pay for.

The frustrating thing about the Marlins is that with good, young players like Ramirez, Maybin, Coghlan, Johnson, and others all under contract or club control, they should be able to contend; even on their small budget, there has to be enough money left over to add a couple of non-terrible relievers, and/or another starting pitcher. Yes, the Phillies are very, very good, but with a bit of effort the Braves would be within striking distance. The Marlins could have a reasonable chance a wildcard spot (and maybe more), especially with the Nationals floundering and the Mets being the Mets. As it is, the Marlins will probably be around .500 this year, maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse.

Jeffrey Loria should thank his lucky stars every day that Donald Sterling is around.

While the Pirates’ wholesale commitment to rebuilding is commendable, the current major league team is still one of baseball’s worst. However, being in the National League Central means that the Pirates are not only likely to win more than 70 games for the first time since 2004, but also have a good chance to finish out of last place for the first time since 2006 (thank you, Houston Astros!).

As a group, the Pirates’ position players project as around average, partly due to their smart strategy of buying low on former top prospects whose value has dropped for whatever reason. Homegrown center fielder Andrew McCutchen is the only player here that has real star potential; at only 23, he’s a very exciting young player who is good at the plate and in the field. The rest are much less impressive, but outside of the failed-former-prospect competition between Bobby Crosby and Ronny Cedeno at shortstop, there aren’t any gaping holes. Ryan Doumit is a poor defensive catcher, and his bat isn’t all that great, but that’s still good enough to be at least an average catcher. Second baseman Akinori Iwamura is virtually the definition of league average. Andy LaRoche isn’t the stud he looked like he might become as a prospect for the Dodgers, but he has an adequate bat and a decent glove at third base. In left field, former top Nationals/Mets prospect Lastings Milledge projects as about average, and at 25, he still has some upside (whatever that means). 2009 surprise Garrett Jones projects as around average in right, and reserve outfielders Ryan Church, Brandon Jones and Brandon Moss are quality role players. Former Seattle catching prospect Jeff Clement will start at first, and while his bat isn’t anything special there, if he really bombs, the Pirates can always move Jones back to first and put Church, B. Jones or Moss* in the outfield full-time without losing too much.

* I realize that one of B. Jones or Moss may not survive the roster crunch.

If the nonpitchers are average-ish, the pitching as a whole is… not. Paul Maholm is the only pitcher on staff who projects as clearly above average, and could help a lot of teams, but he’s certainly no ace. At 28, he’s probably as good as he’s going to get. Charlie Morton is a bit younger (26) and looks like a capable #3 starter, and 27-year-old lefty Zack Duke is about league average as well. Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen and the rest are back-of-the-rotation fodder who will feature all-too-prominently in 2010, and none of them are particularly young. As Bill Simmons might write, if Octavio Dotel is your best reliever, that means Octavio Dotel is your best reliever. The rest of the group isn’t sub-replacement level, but they’re pretty bad, and things could get ugly once Dotel (better suited to middle relief at this point) is traded.

In a strange way, the terrible bullpen is a sign of the front office’s smarts. Yes, it will be hard to watch, but the 2010 (and 2011) Pirates aren’t anywhere close to contention, and no amount of overspending on, say, Brandon Lyon or Jose Valverde would have changed that. A decent bullpen can be constructed much more quickly than a rotation or a group of position players. As for the former, each pitcher is going to be at least one rotation slot higher than they can handle; as for the latter, they should be a respectable group, with a one star-in-the-making, some former top prospects who could still surprise, and solid role players. A mid-70s win total isn’t out of the question, given the divisional opponents, and while that’s hardly something to get excited about, at least the Pirates haven’t compromised their future (by trading away prospects or signing onerous contracts) to attain sub-mediocrity.

Considering only current ability to win rather than value relative to salary, if one looks at the Royals’ roster long enough, focusing in the decent rotation, the closer, and a couple of young (-ish) position players with upside, one might convince oneself that this is a decently talented team. One would be wrong. The Royals currently have one of the worst major league rosters in the American League (thank you, Blue Jays rebuild!).

The starting rotation is actually pretty good. After the monstrous Zack Greinke, there is a sizable drop-off, but not to the depths. Gil Meche isn’t as good he was a couple of seasons ago, but he’s likely better than 2009, and may still be a decent #2 starter. Injuries are a serious concern for Meche, however. Injuries also loom over sabermetric darling Brian Bannister, who might be a marginal #3 starter. Luke Hochevar is unlikely to live up to the expectations generated by being the #1 overall pick in 2006, but he has a non-trivial chance of being above-average. The #5 spot is a question mark, but that is the case for many teams.

The two losers of the epic Kyle Farnsworth–Kyle Davies–Robinson Tejeda battle royale for the #5 spot will end up in the bullpen. While each might be worth (another) try in the rotation, Davies and Tejeda profile better as relievers, and Farnsworth profiles better as an object lesson in what kind of player not to sign to a multi-year deal. Joakim Soria’s value, like that of most closers, is quite exaggerated, but he is one of the best relievers in the game, and keeps this group from being dreadful. For the ‘pen in front of Soria, the Royals have to hope some combination of Davies, Tejeda, and Carlos Rosa combined with the sunk costs of Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz turns into something useful in middle relief.

If the rotation looks like it could be above average (provided good health), and the bullpen looks mediocre-but-passable (mostly due to Soria), the position players look absolutely dreadful. Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and David DeJesus are the only players projected to be above average, and while Butler can’t defend or run, Gordon isn’t the next George Brett, and DeJesus bothers people who think that defense in the corner outfield spots doesn’t matter, they are good players that could help most teams. It would be unfair to blame the Royals’ failures on Butler and Gordon not becoming superduperstars. I’ve run the numbers – if Butler and Gordon turned into Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, the 2010 Royals still wouldn’t project as a .500 team. The Royals have other useful pieces such as Alberto Callaspo, Chris Getz, and perhaps Rick Ankiel. However, far too much playing time and/or roster space is slated for players who are nearly worthless (Scott Podsednik and Jason Kendall), completely worthless (Yuniesky Betancourt and Willie Bloomquist) and worse than worthless (Jose Guillen). Yes, the Royals could (and should) better utilize stopgap role-players like Josh Fields, Kila Ka’aihue, Mike Aviles, Mitch Maier, and Brayan Pena, but a couple more wins would only make them less bad.

This might be understandable if the Royals were committed to a thorough rebuild, but current management has never seemed to grasp that notion, and the signing of thirty-something mediocrities (Ankiel) and scrubs (Podsednik, Kendall) doesn’t signal a change. Moreover, while Butler is still young, Greinke, Hochevar, and Gordon are all already in their mid-twenties, and Meche and DeJesus are all in their thirties (Bannister is 29), so the aging curve doesn’t offer much hope for 2010 or 2011. Significant help won’t be arriving from the minors anytime soon.

The 2010 Royals will probably win 70+ games in 2010, and some will hail this as improvement. Don’t be fooled, it is less “improvement” than positive regression. “Even” 74 wins is never a sign of a good team, particularly in the weak AL Central. The very fact that 74 wins appears to be improvement says as much about the current state of the team than any number of player analyses.