Archive for Aaron Cook

A couple of years ago, Sky Andrecheck used the power of hindsight to see if an MLB team could have built a 2009 playoff contender using only players who were available on the free-agent market that previous off-season. The only caveat was that this team had to have a league-average budget. Using actual WAR and salaries, Andrecheck pieced together the perfect 25-man roster — actually 18, since he left his bullpen to fend for itself with replacement-level players — and on Aug. 24, his hypothetical team was on pace to win 96 games. And it all happened for the bargain price of $78.6 million.

While this is an interesting exercise, and one I replicated for the 2008 season, I don’t need to tell you that a pretty strong team could have been built on the backs of 2011 free-agent steals such as Bartolo Colon, Brandon McCarthy, Jhonny Peralta and Ryan Vogelsong. Instead, Mr. Dave Cameron, in his infinite generosity, has given me a budget of $80 million FanGraphs Pesos to piece together a free-agent team for next season, without the benefit of hindsight. In case you’re wondering, the ratio of FanGraphs Pesos to Schrute Bucks is 3:1.

Read the rest of this entry »

The defending World Champions came away with a win against the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Wednesday. Starter Cliff Lee, obtained from Cleveland at mid-season, threw a complete game and allowed just six hits. He did not walk a batter and he struck out five Colorado hitters.

Lee threw 70% of his pitches for strikes against the Colorado batters. The opposing hitters who had the most luck against him were outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, both of whom had two hits.

Lee’s strategy was clear in the game: Pitch off of the fastball. The Colorado batters were unable to handle his combination of velocity, movement and location. In the first inning of the game, 11 of Lee’s 14 pitches were fastballs. Fast-forward to the ninth inning and 15 of Lee’s 17 pitches were four-seam fastballs (the other two pitches were a curveball and a changeup). In the final frame, Lee’s fastball ranged from 88-94 mph – including the last pitch of the inning, which was a 94 mph heater that third baseman Garrett Atkins swung through. Lee’s best pitch all year has been his fastball (18.1 wFB) so he stuck to his strengths and he had success.

Today, the Phillies will send Cole Hamels to the mound against Colorado’s veteran hurler Aaron Cook. Hamels will likely look to set up the Rockies hitters with his fastball before going to his changeup for outs (11.7 wCH). The Rockies that have had the most success hitting changeups include first baseman Todd Helton, right-fielder Brad Hawpe, and center-fielder Dexter Fowler.

Cook is predominantly a sinker-ball pitcher (56.7 GB%), who also utilizes a slider mostly to throw off hitters’ timings. The key for the Phillies hitters will be to concentrate on driving the ball hard, and to not worry about trying to lift the ball or hit the long ball. Career-wise, a number of Phillies hitters have had success against Cook, including Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth. Pinch-hitter Matt Stairs is a perfect 3-for-3 against Cook in his career, including a homer.

Close to halfway through this regular season, those everyone pegged for success back in the beginning of the calendar year can be found atop most pitching leaderboards: Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and Edinson Volquez. A fifth pitcher, however, has been performing at quite the high level as well despite the lack of similar publicity.

His name is Aaron Cook and, for those unfamiliar with his work, he pitches for the Colorado Rockies. Through 15 starts, Cook is 10-3 with a 3.29 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. In 104 innings of work he has allowed 105 hits and 27 walks to go along with his 50 strikeouts. The ERA, FIP, WHIP, and his 1.85 K/BB are all career highs for Cook; while the season has plenty of life remaining, his current numbers appear to be better than any of his past work.

A notorious groundball pitcher, his percentage of such balls in play has actually decreased overall from 2005 until now. Though essentially stagnant between 2006-2007, he has thrown a lower percentage of grounders and line drives, replacing them with flyballs in this four-year span.

One reason for his success is his somewhat vast increase in runners stranded. Last year, when he posted a 4.12 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, and 1.39 K/BB, he had just a 68.1% LOB rate. This year it has jumped to 75.8%. All told, he is allowing a smaller percentage of runners to reach base and then stranding a much higher percentage of them.

His 2.21 WPA ranks 2nd in the NL behind just Volquez while ranking 5th in the entire MLB behind Lee, Saunders, Marcum, and Volquez. His 1.14 WPA/LI ranks 10th in the NL and, the only clutchier starting pitcher than Cook has been Vicente Padilla (1.13 for Padilla, 1.09 for Cook). Additionally, his 13.13 BRAA and 1.30 REW rank 9th in the NL.

Coming into this season many pegged, and rightly so, Jeff Francis as the Rockies ace. Close to the halfway mark Cook has been one of the best in baseball, let alone his own team, while Francis has struggled.

There has not been too much written about the Rockies across the non-team specific blogosphere. Troy Tulowitzki is injured for a while, the back end of their rotation is a combined -36.58 BRAA, and the only section of the team with a positive WPA is the bullpen. Entering the season everyone envisioned Jeff Francis as the ace of the staff; after all, his post-season was quite impressive. Suffice it to say, Francis has had a rocky start…get it? It’s a pun because he plays for the… nevermind.

Entering tonight’s action Francis is 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA, 5.39 FIP, and 1.63 WHIP. His K/BB has plummeted an entire point, from 2.62 a year ago to 1.63 today. This has all resulted in a -0.50 WPA.

Fortunately, for Rockies fans, Aaron Cook has been performing above and beyond expectations. Through eight starts, Cook is posting the following numbers:

6-1, 2.26 ERA, 55.2 IP, 17 BB, 23 K, 1.13 WHIP

Here are some of his more advanced stats:

3.89 FIP, 1.35 K/BB, 3.72 K/9, 78.2 LOB%, 1.42 WPA, 11.84 BRAA

Based on his home runs and walks allowed, as well as strikeouts, his ERA should be closer to 3.89 than the Maddux-like 2.26 it currently rests at. He has a very low K/9; his 3.72 ranks as the 6th lowest in baseball. His WPA of 1.42 ranks as the seventh best among starting pitchers. Additionally, his 11.84 BRAA comes in at fourth best in the National League.

Cook currently has a BABIP against of .243, which is right on par with his 13.6 LD%. The problem, however, exists in that very low rate of line drives. It simply is uncharacteristic of the Aaron Cook we have come to know and love. His career balls-in-play rates, which do not suffer/benefit from fluctuations, come in at 18.5 LD/61.4 GB/25.0 FB; as of right now it is 13.6 LD/58.3 GB/23.1 FB. It really is not very likely that he will maintain this rate.

Overall, though, Cook has gone 6+ innings in all eight of his starts, allowing a maximum of four earned runs just once; that game was his first of the season.

In his last five games he has an average Game Score of 61 and is holding opponents to a .231/.286/.346 slash line. He may not keep this up all season but Cook has definitely made up for the shortcomings of Francis thus far.