While it’s certainly not the biggest news coming out of San Diego this weekend, the Padres are close to signing free agent right-hander Aaron Harang to a one-year deal. The San Diego native and San Diego State University alumnus is expected to earn about $3 million in 2011.
Word is Aaron Harang has cleared waivers, meaning he can be traded to any team. Any takers? Is that the sound of crickets chirping that I hear? It feels a little weird that no clubs are interested in the Harangutan, a pitcher who averaged 5 WAR per season from ’05-’07. Let’s look closer and see if the apathy is deserved.
Harang was a shell of his normal self last year, and even spent time on the DL with forearm tightness. His struggles have been well chronicled, with the fault landing on Dusty Baker, every saber-minded baseball fan’s favorite punching bag. The censure may be well deserved. Rewinding a bit, on May 22nd, Harang took his start on normal rest. On May 25th, Baker called upon Harang and his resilient arm into a tie game in the 13th inning. Harang threw 63 pitches over 4 shutout innings in extra innings and then proceeded to make his next start on the 29th. He crumpled under the load, pitching terribly until he hit the DL on July 9th. Upon returning from the DL, he eventually reverted back to his normal self for his last 8 starts.
This season, Harang has shown improvement, but hasn’t recaptured ace status. He has increased his K/9 rate from 7.5 to 8. His command has rebounded too, with a 3.5 K/BB ratio. The problem is he’s still afflicted with gopheritis. His 1.3 HR/9 rate is a step up over his 1.7 rate from last year, but it’s still not up to snuff. Peculiarly enough, he’s allowing more homers away from the Great American Bandbox than in it.
Not only has Harang taken a beating with the homers, he’s also allowed a 24% line drive rate which has bloated his BABIP to .347. Depending on what side you fall on in the tRA/FIP debate, you could attribute these numbers to poor luck. His xFIP is a healthy 3.85, which is right in line with the rest of his career and a lot better than his current ERA of 4.43. His tRA is 4.74, scaled to ERA that would be about 4.35. His regressed tRA (tRA*) is just .01 higher, suggesting Harang isn’t out of the woods yet. I’ll let smarter folk than I argue the merits of xFIP over tRA and vice versa, I just refer to both to illustrate that there’s some uncertainty with Harang. That half a run difference, over 180-200 innings, is a little over a win, if you feel these numbers foreshadow Harang’s performance going forward.
His contract calls for $12.5M next season, and if he’s traded, Harang’s $12.75M club option for 2011 with a $2M buyout becomes a $14M mutual option. If you believe that Harang could be a 3.5 win pitcher or better with a simple change of scenery, then he has surplus value. If you believe that his best days are behind him and he’s more of a 2.5 WAR pitcher going forward, then his surplus value is zilch. Teams also might see the decline in performance, Dusty finagling and the high mileage on Harang’s arm and be totally scared off.
When Harang signed his 4-year, $36.5 million extension, it looked like a sweetheart of a deal. He was one of the best and most unheralded pitchers in the game. In hindsight, the deal still looks quite solid for the Reds, but it’s not the huge bargain that it originally appeared to be, which is precisely why Reds’ GM Walt Jocketty is having such a difficult time trying to move it.
With the increased prominence of specialized bullpens, a much heavier reliance on pitch counts than several decades ago and the constant monitoring of health and fatigue, complete games have become somewhat of a rarity. Back in the early part of the 20th century, pitchers routinely finished what they started but nowadays it is considered a spectacular feat to complete five or more games in a season. Which makes yesterday’s action particularly interesting in that three different pitchers all tossed complete game gems.
Josh Johnson burst onto the scene in 2006 with a very solid rookie season. Injuries hindered his availability and progress in 2007 but he returned last season and put up great numbers in limited duty. Against the Mets and Johan Santana yesterday, Johnson showed the ability to dominate and why, when healthy, he can be as good as anyone else in the league. Throwing 113 pitches, 77 of which were strikes, Johnson went the distance, surrendering five hits and one run, walking one hitter and fanning seven. That brings his seasonal total to 15.2 innings, 12 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts.
Meanwhile, over in St. Louis, Kyle Lohse allowed a leadoff hit to Kazuo Matsui and then proceeded to retire the next 24 batters. Lohse, whose contract extension was largely ridiculed this offseason, finished with the tremendous line of 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. On the season, Lohse has surrendered just 8 hits in 16 innings and has issued only one free pass.
As dominant as Lohse looked, however, he didn’t best Aaron Harang’s line. On the heels of a first inning 2-run homer from Brandon Phillips, Harang had all the support he would need, giving up just three hits while walking none and fanning nine Buccos. Harang has now given up 10 hits and 1 earned run in 14 innings of work this season, walking three while recording 11 strikeouts.
All three of these pitchers worked efficiently with their pitches which is likely the only reason they were allowed to stay in the game so long. Especially in the case of Johnson given his aforementioned health issues. In terms of WPA, Johnson slightly edged out Harang, 0.571 to 0.569. At 0.460, Lohse clearly dominated his opponent but not necessarily to the same degree as Johnson and Harang, at least via win probability added. Then again, Lohse pitched in the least stressful of the three games, with a pLI of 0.79; Harang recorded a pLI of 0.94 with Johnson at 1.25.
Regardless, all three of these pitchers dominated and it was great to see them finish their games instead of being lifted for setup men and closers simply due to the specialized nature of the positions. Three complete games in the same day is very rare, especially over the last few decades, and I will have more on just how rare it is later tonight, calling my Retrosheet database into action.
Last week, I took a look at Reds ace Aaron Harang and his poor 2008 season, in order to see exactly what went wrong. His strikeout rate dropped, walk rate rose, and home run rate skyrocketed to a level rarely seen, putting his controllable skill measures right in line with his ERA. Even when we adjusted for the very high home run rate, his FIP was still much higher than the marks posted from 2005-07. Suffice it to say, it appeared that Aaron Harang legitimately had a bad season and was not immensely better than his 6-17 W-L record along the same lines that Matt Cain is usually much better than his records.
After reading some of the comments here and at other sites that graciously linked to the article, I have changed my view somewhat, and would like to shed light on the theme most prevalent in the discussions: the before and after of Harang’s controversial relief appearance. See, on May 25, in an extra-innings affair against the Padres, Dusty Baker called on Harang to pitch in innings 13-16. In that span, Harang surrendered two hits, walked just one hitter, and fanned nine of them, an extremely effective performance.
Entering that game, Harang had made 11 starts, and had an average Game Score of 56, an ERA of 3.50, and a K/BB ratio of 3.50, with 18 walks and 63 punchouts. He seemed to be having a typical Harang year. His eleventh start took place on May 22, meaning he pitched out of the bullpen on May 25 on very short rest. Whether that outing resulted in a mechanical flaw developing or an injury occurring, his next ten starts were awful.
In the ten subsequent starts, Harang allowed 52 earned runs in 51.2 innings, for a 9.06 ERA. His OPS against rose to 1.087 while his average Game Score plummeted to 33. Always known for solid strikeout and walk rates, Harang’s K/BB dropped to around 2.3, much lower than the 3.5+ he has grown accustomed to. The relief outing definitely seemed to have some sort of an effect on the righty, one that hurt his overall seasonal numbers.
The outlook might not be bleak, however, as Harang closed the season out quite strongly. Over his final eight starts, he posted a 2.83 ERA, a K/BB above 3.0, an average Game Score of 57, and a much lower OPS against of .733. Perhaps the injury or mechanical flaw dissipated as the final two months of the season rolled around, but Harang definitely performed much better than he did over the summer. In the previous post, I suggested that the Harang of 2005-07 was likely gone, but I have to amend that a bit right now.
I believe that Harang is experiencing normal dropoffs in his strikeout and walk rates, but that his home run rate will regress. He is not nearly as bad as he looked over the summer, just like he isn’t a true talent 2.83 ERA pitcher. His true talent level and projection for 2009 will not be as nice as the level entering this season, but he can still be a very effective pitcher, especially if the bugs hurting him over the summer have been exterminated.
The Cincinnati Reds may have struggled to compete over the last several seasons, but there were still several bright spots. One of these positives was the right arm of ace Aaron Harang. A former Athletics prospect, Harang emerged as a durable and extremely effective pitcher for the Reds, compiling some of the best numbers in the senior circuit from 2005-07. In that span, he made 32+ starts each year and amassed a minimum of 211.2 innings pitched. His K/9 rose from 6.93 to 8.47, while his BB/9 with intentional walks removed dropped from 2.04 to 1.80 before settling in at 1.90 in 2007.
Harang’s WHIP of 1.27 in 2005-06 dropped to 1.14 in 2007, and his strand rate ranged from 73.8%-74.6%, three marks well above average. Additionally, his ERA decreased from 3.83 to 3.73. Unfortunately for Harang, his HR/9 rose from 0.94 to 1.09, and his FIP “rose” from 3.67 to 3.71. In 2005-06, his FIP was better than the ERA, however in 2007, they were essentially identical. Regardless, it is hard to argue that he seemed on the verge of several all star berths as one of the best righthanded pitches in the National League.
This season, however, he suffered a setback. In 30 games, 29 of which were starts, he only tossed 184.1 innings, and experienced worse numbers pretty much across the board. His K/9 decreased by one full strikeout to 7.47, while his unintentional walk rate rose to 2.20. This increase in walks, coupled with a .317 BABIP resulted in a 1.38 WHIP, his highest in any full season. Additionally, his 4.78 ERA and 4.79 FIP were significantly worse than anything over the previous four seasons. How did this happen? Well, it’s easy to point to a lack of luck, but was that really the case?
Harang’s HR/9 skyrocketed to 1.71, way up from the 1.09 in 2007, so perhaps his performance really was the result of bad luck. Unfortunately, his dropoff in strikeouts also contributed to the higher FIP, as his walk rate did not necessareily rise that much. The .317 BABIP, as well, while much higher than average, is actually in the same range as his marks in 2004-06, when he was able to produce quality seasons, and his strand rate of 73.6% is not only above average but right in line with his 2005-07 rates. And even though the HR/9 rose to 1.71, his HR/FB was just 13.9%; while 13.9% is definitely above the average of 10-11%, it was not as if this rate soared to 17-20% or anything along those lines. One way to check if poor luck with regard to the home run aspect of controllable skills affects the FIP is to look at the normalized version of the metric. Via The Hardball Times, Harang’s xFIP was 4.38, meaning yes, he was a bit unlucky, but still significantly worse than 2005-07.
This past season saw his highest percentage of flyballs in a full season at 44%, so he threw more balls in the air, and a higher percentage than usual left the park. This should regress moving forward, but the dropoff in strikeouts does signal some sense of a dropoff. He lost some velocity on the fastball, but nothing drastic enough to claim a large role in the much poorer 2008 campaign. Is Harang as bad as he performed in 2008? No, not by a longshot, but there was a serious performance decline here that cannot be chalked up solely as bad luck, which could have to do with some type of injury, or could signal the start of his decline. He will likely be much better next season, but the potential award winner from 2005-07 may be gone for good.
Aaron Harang lost Tuesday night, despite pitching well, continuing his general 2008 theme of solid pitching and receiving next to no run support. The loss to the Phillies dropped him to 2-8 on the season; yet, looking at all of his statistics sans W-L would lead many to believe his record would be MUCH better. In the spirit of unluckiness take a look at Harang’s 2008 stacked up next to Matt Cain‘s 2007 and Brandon Webb’s 2004:
Aaron Harang (2008)
13 GS, 88.2 IP, 94 H, 20 BB, 78 K
2-8, 3.86 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 76.1% LOB
.323 BABIP vs. .313 career BABIP
HR/FB 10.6% vs. 10.2% in 2007 and 10.5% in 2006
2.98 RS/9, 2nd Worst Run Support in NL
Matt Cain (2007)
32 GS, 200 IP, 173 H, 79 BB, 163 K
7-16, 3.65 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 72.9% LOB
.284 BABIP vs. .271 career BABIP
5.5% HR/FB vs. 7.1% in 2006 and 5.9% in 2005
3.51 RS/9, Worst Run Support in NL/MLB
Brandon Webb (2004)
35 GS, 208 IP, 194 H, 119 BB, 164 K
7-16, 3.59 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, 71.0% LOB
.295 BABIP vs .293 career BABIP
HR/FB 15.0% vs 15.4% in 2003 (career 13.6%)
4.24 RS/9, 8th in NL
Overall, Cain and Harang seem unluckier due to Webb’s much higher FIP and rank in run support. Still, none of these three deserve the W-L records listed here, and if the Reds don’t start scoring for Harang he could easily surpass Cain in this area of unjust results.
In Sunday’s 18-inning marathon between the Reds and Padres, pitchers Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez made uncharacteristic appearances out of the bullpen. After ruffling through eight different pitchers in twelve innings, the Reds found themselves out of traditional relief resources. Harang came in for the 13th-16th innings while Volquez pitched the 17th before surrendering a walkoff home run with two outs in the 18th. Though odd that they pitched out of the bullpen, period, the actual ingredients comprising these appearances are even more interesting.
Harang had pitched just three days earlier, against the same Padres, experiencing his worst start of the season. In it he went just 5.1 innings, giving up 10 hits and 5 runs; he also walked two and struck out seven. This start had been one of just two stains on an otherwise very solid albeit unlucky season for the Reds ace. In his career, Harang had never pitched on just two days rest. Based on his performance against the Padres, perhaps he should more often!
Okay, I’m kidding, and would never base a statement like that off of just one game but Harang might have pitched his best on Sunday. In four innings of relief work he gave up just two hits and struck out nine batters. His nine strikeouts happened to be his season high. Harang was clearly aided by imposing shadows, causing some feeble and futile swings from Padres hitters; for a guy as unlucky as he throughout this season this goes down as positive karma in my book.
Volquez, on the other hand, had pitched two days prior, striking out 12 Padres hitters in six innings of two-hit, one-run work. Volquez has been so good this season that his ERA actually went up after that outing. On Sunday, though, Volquez went 1.2 innings, walking one and striking out two. He also gave up one hit which proved to be the game-winner. With two on and two out in the bottom of the 18th, he gave up a walkoff three-run home run to Adrian Gonzalez.
Despite garnering the loss, the three runs were all unearned because, a few plays earlier, Joey Votto botched a routine play to first base. Volquez pitched six tremendous innings on Friday, giving up one run, and yet he raised his ERA; on Sunday he gave up a three-run home run and his ERA went down.
Based on the WPA results, Volquez’s -.216 deemed this his worst appearance of the season while Harang’s +.568 was far and away his best.
Prior to this season I strongly contended that Aaron Harang was the most underrated starting pitcher in the National League. A little over a month into the season and my contention has grown. There’s a formula I like to use to determine underratedness:
Underrated = (Being On A Bad Team + Very Few, If Any, Nationally Televised Games)/(Never Posting Insane Conventional Stats, Like 20 Wins, That Would Force Somebody To Take Notice)
It’s a bit long but it gets the job done and sums up Harang. Some may argue, “But Eric… Harang does post great stats,” and I would agree; however, he has never won 20 games or posted a 2.40 ERA, or struck out 265 batters, which are numbers that would literally force Cy Young Award voters and more casual fans to take notice.
From 2005-2007, The Harangutan has made 32+ starts, pitched in 210+ innings, walked no more than 56, and increased his strikeouts from 163 to 218. His WHIP has ranged from 1.27 to 1.14 and his ERA has decreased from 3.83 to 3.73. His FIPs of 3.67-3.71 imply his ERA has mostly painted an accurate portrait.
This year, Harang has the following line:
8 GS, 3.09 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 55.1 IP, 48 H, 13 BB, 47 K; opponents are hitting .235/.281/.382 (.663 OPS); and his average Game Score is 59.
His record, you may ask? 1-5. One win and five losses despite posting the numbers above. Harang has given up more than three runs in just one start. If we remove that start he has a 2.55 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an average Game Score of 61.
How has this happened? Well, run support! The Reds have scored a measly 14 runs for Harang. On top of that, four of those runs came in his lone victory. In his other seven starts he has received 10 runs of support in 47.1 innings. Jorge de la Rosa got seven runs from his team just yesterday.
I probed the B-R Play Index to find pitchers in recent years who have experienced similar plight. Though this is likely specially selecting stats, the criteria used:
a) In the team’s first 40 games
b) From 1999-2008 (ten years)
c) Game Scores of 55+
d) No more than 3 ER
e) Resulting in a Loss or No-Decision
That criteria brought a five-way tie for first place, with each of the five recording 5 losses/no-decisions. The players were: Harang, Odalis Perez (2008), Roger Clemens (2005), Chris Carpenter (2006), and Jason Bergmann (2007).
If the Reds do not start picking up their ace he could very well fall into the 2007 Matt Cain category of extreme unluckiness.