Archive for Aaron Poreda

* My apologies for the late posting of San Diego’s Top 10 prospects… but I think the wait was well worth it, especially if you picked up a copy of the FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy baseball companion (It’s 582 pages)!

General Manager: Jed Hoyer
Farm Director: Randy Smith
Scouting Director: Jaron Madison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Padres organization doesn’t get a ton of ink or love, but it has some really solid prospects – especially in the Top 5 of the Top 10 list. On the downside, the club has a big backlog at third base and the corner outfield positions.

1. Simon Castro, RHP, Low-A
DOB: April 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Castro took a big leap forward in 2009 at low-A ball as a 21-year-old pitcher. The right-hander posted an impressive 2.80 FIP while allowing just 118 hits in 140.1 innings of work. Castro also showed excellent control (2.37 BB/9) while missing a lot of bats (10.07 K/9). The prospect has a big, strong pitcher’s frame at 6’5” 200 lbs, but he’ll have to watch that he doesn’t get too big. It won’t be such a big deal while pitching in San Diego, but Castro’s ground-ball rate was a tad below 40% so it would be nice to see him improve his worm-burning rate.

2. Logan Forsythe, 3B, Double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – University of Arkansas
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Forsythe or Darnell. Darnell or Forsythe. Take your pick. Along with Edinson Rincon, the club has impressive depth at the hot corner. The big league club also has a pretty good young player at the position in the Majors in Chase Headley. Of the trio in the minors, Forsythe is my pick. He had a solid ’09 season while playing in both high-A and double-A. At the junior level, the right-handed hitter batted .322/.472/.504 in a very good hitter’s environment. Moved up to double-A, he hit .279/.384/.377 in 244 at-bats. Although he held his own against all pitches, Forsythe enjoyed facing southpaws in ’09, with a .951 OPS (compared to .821 versus right-handers). The drop in power after his promotion (ISO from .182 to .098) is a little worrisome, but Forsythe should still hit for average and get on base (20% walk rate in high-A). He even showed some smarts on the base paths with 11 steals in 13 tries. The 23-year-old prospect will need to cut down on his strikeouts (25.8 K% in double-A).

3. James Darnell, 3B, High-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – University of South Carolina
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A step behind Forsythe, Darnell began the year in in low-A as a 22-year-old and hit .329/.468/.518 in 222 at-bats. He then batted .294/.377/.553 in 235 at-bats after a promotion to high-A. Although Darnell does not project to hit for average as consistently as Forsythe, he has a little more reliable pop in his bat (ISO of .189 in low-A, .260 in high-A). Like his fellow third base prospect, he shows patience at the plate, but he whiffs less often (16.2% in high-A). Darnell is the more athletic of the two third basemen so he’s more likely to switch positions (second base, right field) and Forsythe has a solid defensive profile (including a strong arm) for the hot corner.

4. Jaff Decker, OF, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Arizona HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Because of his age (19), Decker was kept in low-A ball all season despite solid numbers. He posted a triple-slash line of .299/.442/.514 in 358 at-bats. The left-handed hitter showed above-average patience at the plate with a walk rate of 18.7% but his strikeout rate was a tad high at 25.7%. With that said, he does show power potential after posting an ISO of .215. At 5’10”, 200 lbs, Decker is going to have to watch his conditioning if he’s going to stick in the outfield. He also doesn’t hit quite as well against southpaws (.881 OPS) as he does against right-handers (.962 OPS).

5. Wynn Pelzer, RHP, High-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 9th round – University of South Carolina
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Pelzer has risen rather quickly through the system and should begin 2010 in double-A. The right-hander uses a solid two-pitch repertoire (and a developing change-up), as well as a solid ground-ball rate (53%) to produce nice minor league numbers. He posted a 3.30 FIP in high-A despite playing in a very good hitter’s park. He showed average control and posted a walk rate of 3.52 BB/9 and a respectable strikeout rate of 8.78 K/9. His HR/9 rate of 0.36 was very encouraging. Pelzer has some work to do against left-handed hitters (1.49 vs 1.03 WHIP).

6. Edinson Rincon, 3B, Short-season
DOB: August 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2014 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With Headley, Forsythe, and Darnell ahead of him, the organization can be patient with the raw Rincon. The right-handed hitter had a lot of success in short-season ball in ’09 after two years in rookie ball. The teenager hit .300/.415/.468 in 267 at-bats and showed solid patience with a walk rate of 14.2%. His strikeout rate was high at 22.5% but he showed some developing power with an ISO rate of .169. Rincon has a strong arm but he may soon out-grow the position and move to right field (or first base, but his arm would be wasted there).

7. Cory Luebke, LHP, Double-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Ohio State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Luebke, a southpaw, started the year in high-A and allowed 73 hits in 88.1 innings. He also posted a FIP of 2.58. He showed excellent control (1.73 BB/9) and posted a good strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9. Moved up to double-A, he had a 3.83 FIP and was a little more hittable (38 hits in 41.1 innings). Although he posted allowed a similar batting average against both right-handed and left-handed hitters on the year, Luebke showed a better ground-ball rate against lefties (58.2 vs 47.8%) and a more impressive strikeout rate (10.00 vs 6.70 K/9). He projects to be a No. 3 or 4 starter in the National League.

8. Aaron Poreda, LHP, Majors
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – University of San Francisco (Chicago AL)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A prized acquisition from the White Sox (in the Jake Peavy deal), Poreda has a good arm even if some of the shine has come off of him a bit since being drafted in the first round. The left-hander sacrifices some velocity for control but he can still reach the mid-90s with his heater. The big issue with him, though, is that his secondary pitches have never been overly strong. After making 11 starts in double-A at the beginning of the year, Poreda had mixed results in triple-A. He also made 14 appearances, all out of the ‘pen, at the MLB level for both the White Sox and the Padres. In 13.1 innings, he posted a 4.45 FIP and allowed 10 hits and 13 walks.

9. Lance Zawadzki, SS, Double-A
DOB: May 1985 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – San Diego State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A personal favorite of mine, Zawadzki is on the cusp of making the Majors, possibly as a utility player. The shortstop had a solid line in double-A in 09 and hit .289/.372/.416 in 346 at-bats (He began the year in high-A and had 145 at-bats). The switch-hitter does a little bit of everything but nothing overly well. He stole 14 bases in 15 tries and showed a nice line-drive swing. His strikeout rate is high (21.4%) for his modest power (.127 ISO). Zawadzki had more success against southpaws in ’09 but his BABIP played a big part (.408 vs .293).

10. Sawyer Carroll, OF, Double-A
DOB: May 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Carroll beat out a couple of other outfielders for the 10th and final spot on the prospect list. A corner outfielder, he had a nice offensive season while playing at three levels during his first full pro season. The left-handed hitter produced a triple-slash line at low-A (where he had his most at-bats) of .316/.410/.464. He continued to hit above .300 at all stops and he stole a total of 19 bases in 27 tries. He also laced 40 doubles and showed a good eye at the plate with a walk rate above 13%. If his power doesn’t develop a little bit more, Carroll should slid into a fourth outfielder’s role in the Majors.

Up Next: The Seattle Mariners

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Gordon Beckham, SS/3B
Despite beginning ’09 in double-A, Beckham made a solid run at the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. The shortstop-turned-third baseman hit .270/.347/.460 with an ISO of .190 in 378 at-bats. The right-handed hitter showed a respectable walk rate at 9.8 BB% and a solid strikeout rate at 17.2 K%. Impressively, he did a nice job handling breaking balls as a rookie. Beckham struggled a little bit in the field at third base, but he showed good value with his bat and posted a 2.1 WAR. He could move back to shortstop in 2010.

The Riser: Santos Rodriguez, LHP
Obtained from the Braves in the Javier Vazquez deal, Rodriguez could turn out to be a steal. The hard-throwing reliever has a 90-95 mph fastball, as well as a slider and change-up. In ’09, he allowed just 18 hits in 27 innings of work in rookie ball. The 21-year-old was old for the league but he got three games of experience in low-A ball before the year ended. He needs to improve his control after posting a walk rate of 5.67 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was excellent at 14.00 K/9.

The Tumbler: John Shelby Jr., OF
A former infielder, Shelby has made a successful conversion to the outfield but his bat has taken a step back. He hit just .243/.323/.402 in 428 double-A at-bats. He did show some power with an ISO of .159 (down from .215 in ’08). Shelby Jr. also has some speed and he swiped 30 bases in 39 attempts. He made some strides in his walk rate, which rose from 4.7 to 10.3 BB%. It wasn’t a terrible year for Shelby Jr. but he took hits in both his power and his on-base numbers; he needs to get on-base more consistently to take advantage of his speed. At 24 years of age, time is not on his side.

The ’10 Sleeper: Brent Morel, 3B
With Beckham playing the hot corner in the Majors and prospect C.J. Retherford continuing to perform better than expected, the White Sox suddenly have a lot of depth at the position. Toss in Morel and you can begin to forget the disaster that was Josh Fields. The right-handed hitting Morel had a nice year at high-A in ’09 by hitting .281/.335/.453 in 481 at-bats. He posted an ISO of .173 and stole 25 bases in 34 attempts, giving hope that he could one day become a 15-15 player at the MLB level. Morel will probably never show 20+ home run power consistently but he could develop into a solid Bill Mueller type third baseman.

Bonus: Aaron Poreda, LHP
In the ’08 series, this former No. 1 draft pick was highlighted for a breakout in ’09. Instead, the left-hander had an up-and-down year that saw him make his MLB debut and get traded to the San Diego Padres. Poreda struggled with his control in 14 big league games, and posted a walk rate of 8.78 BB/9. Despite pitching as a starter in the minors, all of his appearances came in relief for both the White Sox and Padres. He’s probably better suited to working out of the bullpen going forward, in the hopes that he’ll become more consistent. It will also allow him to focus on his fastball, which is his best pitch.

Padres’ general manager Kevin Towers says the Padres can be “pretty good” next year. I’d like to know what Towers means by pretty good. Surveying the team – wearing Petco adjusted glasses, of course – I have a tough time seeing it.

Unless you just don’t pay attention to baseball at all, you already know about the greatness of Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres entertained offers this deadline before ruling to keep their star slugger. What sort of talent do they have to compliment him in order to contend in a strong division next year? Getting a full season of Kyle Blanks should help. His power is the real deal – evidenced in part by a .202 ISO in Triple-A, .264 in the majors this season. While his bat could be something special, he’s been forced to the outfield because of Gonzalez’s presence. Blanks looks more like a defensive lineman than a first baseman, let alone an outfielder. In a small sampling, Blanks’ UZR is -9 per 150 games. Having seen him play a few times, he looks faster than I expected a 285 pounder to be, but he’s not going to be confused with Nyjer Morgan anytime soon.

Everth Cabrera looks like a Rule 5 steal. He draws walks at a decent clip – 11% of his plate appearances this year – and he’s one of the fastest players in baseball. While in small samples his UZR numbers are not great, scouts believe he is a solid defender.

So there we have two cost-controlled players that should be above average contributors, or thereabouts. Kevin Kouzmanoff is having a fine season (2.4 WAR) and Tony Gwynn Jr. has been surpisingly good since coming over from Milwaukee (1.9 WAR). On the downside, former top prospect Chase Headley has not lived up to expecations (.320 wOBA, -10 in LF), and there’s little seperating Nick Hundley and David Eckstein from replacement players.

As for their rotation, the Padres look like they will have a crew of Chris Young, Tim Stauffer, Mat Latos, Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda. Latos and Poreda both have high ceilings, but it would be a lot to expect either to blossom into top-shelf starters by next season. Stauffer and Richard are both solid-ish, and who knows what to expect from Chris Young going forward?

Their bullpen looks to be a strength, with Heath Bell blossoming into one of the more dominant closers in the game, and San Diego has no trouble finding diamonds in the rough when filling out a ‘pen. Take for instance Luke Gregerson (2.44 FIP), who was just in Double-A last year and came over from St. Louis in the Khalil Greene deal.

The Padres dumped a lot of salary by getting rid of Peavy, and by my estimates they only have about $30 million committed to next year’s roster, which should give them some money to play with this winter. But who knows what the new ownership group will be willing to shell out in free agency? And even if they do add through free agency, I can’t see that putting them into contention next year.

I think Towers is a bright guy, but I don’t quite get his optimism. I do think the Padres will improve. How couldn’t they? But unless pretty good means 77 wins, I just don’t see it.

At the expiration of the Major League Baseball trading deadline, 35 prospects had changed hands (beginning July 19 with Milwaukee’s acquisition of Felipe Lopez). Over the next week, FanGraphs will take a look at each prospect, while also ranking them individually in value from 35 down to one. Players such as Justin Masterson, Clayton Richard, Kevin Hart, and Jeff Clement were not considered in this list because they have expired their rookie eligibility. However, they can still technically be considered “prospects” because they are young and have yet to establish themselves at the MLB level.

The week-long series wraps up today with the top seven prospects who moved at the trade deadline. We’ve already taken a look at 28 prospects:
35-29 on Monday
28-22 on Tuesday
21-15 on Wednesday
14-8 on Thursday

So let’s get to it and see who the biggest prospect names were.

2008 Draft Slot: Eighth overall
Top Pick: Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia
Best Pick: Gordon Beckham
Keep an Eye On: Kenny Williams Jr…. just kidding. Dexter Carter, RHP, Old Dominion (13th round)
Notes: The club got an absolutely steal with Dexter Carter, who posted some ugly college numbers despite possessing good stuff (including a 96 mph fastball). His control has been solid in pro ball and so have his numbers, although he has pitched in rookie ball and low A-ball, so we need to see how he does in high A-ball and Double-A before we get too excited. Gordon Beckham is growing on me as a prospect, but I am still not his biggest fan. Third baseman Brent Morel looks like a pretty good third-round pick. He’s hitting just .258 in high A-ball, but his BABIP is .264, he’s hitting more homers and his contact rates are pretty good.

2007 Draft Slot: 25th overall
Top Pick: Aaron Poreda, LHP, University of San Francisco
Best Pick: Aaron Poreda
Worst Pick: Nevin Griffith, RHP, Florida high school (Second round)
Notes: Nevin Griffith gets tabbed as the worst pick of the draft mostly because he was taken in the second round and he’s only pitched 20 pro innings thanks to Tommy John surgery. Right-hander John Ely was a nice third-round pick and could develop into a solid No. 3 or 4 starter. Aaron Poreda has great velocity on the fastball but the secondary stuff is still lacking. He could be a dominating closer.

2006 Draft Slot: 29th overall
Top Pick: Kyle McCulloch, RHP, University of Texas
Best Pick: John Shelby Jr., 2B/OF, University of Kentucky (Fifth round)
Worst Pick: Kyle McCulloch
Notes: John Shelby Jr. is by far the best pick of the draft and the club really, really missed with Kyle McCulloch, as well as the second and third round picks… OK, basically all the picks were bad. The White Sox could have had Joba Chamberlain (41st overall) or Adrian Cardenas (37th) instead of the Texas southpaw.

2009 Draft Slot: 23rd overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College players, usually an arm if available
MLB Club Need: Center field, Third base, Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Outfield, First base, Second base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Third base, Shortstop
Notes: Does Kenny have any more draft-eligible sons? OK… I’m done now. The White Sox had a nice draft in 2008, so it will be interesting to see how organization does in 2009 with a couple extra picks in the first two rounds.

The Graduate: Alexei Ramirez | Born: September 1981 | Infielder

Signed this past winter after leaving Cuba, Alexei Ramirez had an up-and-down season after surprising everyone – including the White Sox – by making the club out of spring training. He hit .290/.317/.475 with 21 homers in 480 at-bats. The wiry infielder also drove in 77 runs. Ramirez needs to work on his patience and pitch selection as he posted rates of 3.6 BB% and 12.7 K%. He also needs to work on his base stealing after getting caught nine times in 22 attempts.

The Riser: John Ely | Born: May 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

After making his 2007 debut in Rookie Ball, the former third round pick out of Miami-Ohio University skipped two levels and pitched in High-A ball in 2008 with success. In 145.1 innings, John Ely allowed 142 hits and posted rates of 2.85 BB/9 and 8.30 K/9. Like a lot of young players, Ely struggles with consistency and had two really bad months, including July when he posted a 9.67 ERA and allowed 35 hits and 15 walks in 22.1 innings. He gets a lot of movement on his pitches and his best offerings include a low-90s fastball and a plus change-up.

The Tumbler: Jack Egbert | Born: May 1983 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The 2008 season was supposed to be a big one for Jack Egbert, who had been proving people wrong for a number of seasons. But the right-hander with a high-80s fastball (as well as a solid breaking ball and change-up) struggled at Triple-A and saw his HR/9 rate jump from 0.13 in 2006 and 0.17 in 2007 to 1.04 in 2008. His posted rates were still solid at 2.85 BB/9 and 8.12 K/9, although the strikeouts fell off about 1.00 K/9 from 2007. Already 25, Egbert needs a fast start to 2009 to prove he can remain in the starting rotation.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Jordan Danks | Born: August 1986 | Outfielder

Jordan Danks could have been a first or second round pick coming out of high school, but he sent a letter to every club stating that he was 100 percent committed to playing for the University of Texas. Regardless, Chicago drafted him in the 19th round but failed to sign him. Four years later, with Danks’ draft status having taken a hit with a modest college career, he was again selected by the White Sox. He came to terms with the club as a seventh round selection and joined his brother John as a White Sox player. Danks posted solid numbers in his debut, albeit in just 10 games. He is loaded with athletic gifts but scouts question his ability to hit good pitching.

The ’09 Sleeper: Aaron Poreda | Born: October 1986 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Aaron Poreda was drafted 25th overall in the 2007 draft, after a solid college career at the University of San Francisco. The 6’6” left can dial his fastball up into the mid-90s, but his secondary pitches are still lacking. He posted solid numbers in his first full pro season despite having just one consistently-dominating pitch. In 161 innings combined between High-A and Double-A, Poreda allowed 148 hits, showed better than expected control with 40 walks (2.26 BB/9) and struck out fewer than expected batters with 118 Ks (7.39 K/9). On the positive side, his strikeout rate climbed significantly in Double-A (almost 2.00 K/9). If he can consistently throw strikes with his slider – look out.

Up Next: The Cincinnati Reds