Archive for American League

The baseball season still has two and a half months left of games to be played, but the bifurcation around the All Star Game often results in award discussions. The discussions tend to grow contentious when one player clearly stands out amongst the crop of candidates, but is passed over in lieu of a player with a more fitting narrative.

Right now, Jose Bautista is the most valuable player in the American League, not Adrian Gonzalez.

Bautista boasts a .334/.468/.702 line, and a gaudy .487 wOBA. He has launched 31 home runs in 84 games, and is on pace to hit right around 50 by the end of the season. He is walking in almost 20 percent of his plate appearances and has actually improved his strikeout rate. With average defense and plus-baserunning, it becomes difficult to point out any flaws in his game. Last year was clearly his breakout season, as he tallied 6.9 wins above replacement. In slightly over half of a season this year he has already produced 6.6 WAR, and very well may turn in one of the best seasons in the history of baseball.

Gonzalez is having a fantastic season, but one very clearly south of Bautista. The Red Sox first baseman has a higher batting average at .354, and a better fielding mark (albeit at an easier position), and that’s about it. His on-base percentage is 54 points lower. His .591 slugging percentage is 111 points lower. Put everything together and Gonzalez has a .429 wOBA, which would lead the league if not for the fact that Bautista’s mark is almost 60 points higher. Gonzalez is the best player in the American League outside of the Jose Bautista division, but there is a clear line of demarcation between he and Bautista.

Why are so many touting Gonzalez as the MVP of the first half? The arguments tend to boil down to the following areas: his quest for the batting title, the high RBI total, clutch performance, and the performance of the Red Sox as a team.

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Yesterday I discussed how Pat Burrell’s apparent all star snub was the most egregious in the senior circuit. Also mentioned was how the construction of these rosters never was nor never will be perfect, due in large part now to the starters being voted on by fans and the managerial staff possessing the pre-requisite rule requiring each team at least one representative. Undeserving players will make it and quite deserving ones will not. Such is life… or the all star game.

Today we will take a position by position look at the American League roster and, using WPA/LI, see how the fans, players and managers did. Did anyone named to the team not deserve to be there? Any deserving players left off? Of teams with just one representative, was the right player chosen? To get this party started, here are the players voted in and their WPA/LI rank at their position. Also be sure to note that the ranks are amongst only those who qualify for a leaderboard.

C: Joe Mauer (1)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (2)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (2)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (1)
OF: Josh Hamilton (2)
OF: Manny Ramirez (5)
OF: Ichiro Suzuki (out of top ten)
DH: Milton Bradley* (1)

*Bradley is replacing David Ortiz and actually leads all AL “outfielders” in context-neutral wins.

Looking at those voted in, the only odd pick (out of say the top three at that position) is Ichiro, but come on, he’s Ichiro. I honestly have no problem with fans wanting him in the game as a starter. Perhaps J.D. Drew should be there but if another Yankees or Red Sox player found himself in the starting lineup I would write a completely empty threat conveying my likely short-lived anger.

Here are the reserve position players and their WPA/LI rank at that position, looking at all players with at least 220 PA:

C: Dioner Navarro (2), Jason Varitek (out of top ten)
1B: Justin Morneau (3)
2B: Ian Kinsler (1)
SS: Michael Young (1), and the only AL SS with positive WPA/LI
3B: Carlos Guillen (2), Joe Crede (out of top ten)
OF: J.D. Drew (3)
OF: Grady Sizemore (4)
OF: Carlos Quentin (6)

Looking at the reserves we see the actual context-neutral leaders at 2B and SS, as well as the second place C and 3B. Of outfielders, including Bradley, the top six were chosen. Realistically, the only odd choices of these reserves, when discussing WPA/LI, are Varitek and Crede. Here are the pitchers and their ranks as either a starter or reliever:

SP: Cliff Lee (1)
SP: Roy Halladay (2)
SP: Justin Duchsherer (3)
SP: Ervin Santana (5)
SP: Joe Saunders (7)
SP: Scott Kazmir (12), Kaz doesn’t qualify but his 1.32 WPA/LI would fall 12th
RP: Joakim Soria (1)
RP: Mariano Rivera (2)
RP: Joe Nathan (3)
RP: Francisco Rodriguez (4)
RP: Jonathan Papelbon (5)
RP: George Sherrill (way out of top ten)

The relievers appear to be spot on with the exception of Sherrill, who was clearly chosen due to the Orioles needing a representative and his 27 saves ranking second in the league. The starting pitchers appear to be properly assembled as well, as Shaun Marcum, who ranks sixth, is injured and would not be able to participate anyways. Still, that leaves the fourth place context-neutral pitcher out of the mix in John Danks of the first place Chicago White Sox. Going position by position again, here are some notables that were left out, either ranking higher than those voted in/chosen or coming very close:

C: Nobody
1B: Jason Giambi (1)
2B: Brian Roberts (2)
SS: Nobody. They all stink. Honestly, look for yourself.
3B: Evan Longoria (4)
OF: Jermaine Dye (7), Nick Markakis (8)
SP: John Danks (4)

The most compelling cases to me are those of Roberts, Markakis, and Danks: the Orioles only have one representative and instead of the second best (WPA/LI speaking here) player manning the keystone corner it ended up being a closer whose results clearly benefit from the importance of the situations in which they were accrued. Since the top six outfielders were chosen, Markakis is the odd man out, but I just don’t see why Sherrill had to be their lone player. I won’t lose any sleep over Longoria either because even if he doesn’t get voted in on the final ballot, he will definitely be a multiple all star over the course of his career.

With this in mind, it seems the AL actually did a pretty good job assembling their roster. Some reserves should be starting and vice-versa, but relative to WPA/LI, remove Varitek and Sherrill and this team doesn’t exhibit many egregious errors in my eyes.

As of right now, the Tampa Bay Rays (I didn’t say Devil!) are tied with the Cubs for the best record in baseball. They are playing with confidence and really seem to feel they belong at the top. Some of this confidence stems from the knowledge that, every fifth day, Scott Kazmir will toe the rubber. The actually productive component of arguably the worst trade of all time broke out last season, leading everyone without the luxury of an 163rd game in strikeouts.

Oddly enough, Kazmir missed the entire month of April and the Rays still managed to go 15-12. Since his return he has not missed a beat and the team is currently 31-21.

In five starts he has gone for 30 innings, giving up 19 hits and 10 walks, striking out 32 in the process. Omitting his first start, Kazmir has gone 26 innings, giving up just 13 hits and 7 walks, with 27 strikeouts to boot; additionally, his last four starts have an average game score of 71.

Kazmir is yet to surrender a home run and has kept runners off base as evidenced by his 0.97 WHIP. Those who do manage to get on have been stranded 79.3% of the time. He has been in the 1.27-1.48 WHIP range the last three seasons primarily due to his walks. Since he does not surrender many hits—a .247 BAA from ’05-’07—he should experience even more success with some added control.

Now, 79.3% is quite high for LOB but if/when he regresses and more runners score, it does not mean he will not be effective; rather, he just won’t be Sandy Koufax anymore.

Last year he posted his highest BABIP against at .341; spreading his balls in play with 15.6% LD, 43.1% GB, and 41.3% FB, Kazmir may have been a bit unlucky. This year, surrendering 7% more line drives (22.7%), he currently has just a .265 BABIP. His career numbers also suggest this frequency of line drives should decrease to the 18% range.

When put together, all of this suggests Kazmir’s production may not sustain its current pace, but a slightly regressing Scott Kazmir is still better than the vast majority of major league pitchers.