Archive for Andy Pettitte

Earlier today I got to thinking about this past offseason and the discussions housed here involving whether or not the Yankees should sign Derek Lowe or Andy Pettitte. Plenty of opinions flew back and forth but the overwhelming result was that Pettitte would be the better fit for the Yankees given the lower salary and lesser commitment. After all, 1-yr/$10 mil (assuming all incentives kick in) is much easier to handle than 4-yr/$60 mil, especially for a team that had spent a pretty penny on CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira.

Lately, however, with the injury to Chien-Ming Wang and the “emergence” of Phil Hughes, I have heard a few fans suggest that Pettitte should pitch out of the bullpen when Wang returns. At first, I wanted to respond by saying that no, Joba does not belong in the bullpen, until it dawned on me that this age old Chamberlain debate had now been pushed upon Pettitte… which made my head hurt even more than the aforementioned age old Chamberlain debates.

Then I began to remember when Pettitte actually did sign and how everyone seemed to assign the term “fifth starter” upon him. As the title of this post suggests, what gives? Why no love for Pettitte? Do people realize he has been one of the best and most reliable pitchers over the last several seasons?

If Pettitte is a fifth starter, he is without question the best fifth starter in baseball right now, given that he would be a #3 in most other teams in the game and perhaps even a #2. Put him on some of the lesser-quality teams like the Nationals, Rockies, and Pirates and he might actually be the ace.

Over the last four seasons, Pettitte has averaged 213 innings and +4.6 wins. His total of +18.3 wins in that span of 2005-08 ranks ninth amongst all pitchers, ahead of both Jake Peavy and Josh Beckett. In 2004, he missed time due to injuries, but here are his win values from 2002-08, excluding that injury plagued 2004 campaign: +4.2, +5.5, +5.8, +3.5, +4.5, +4.4. Granted, I’m not here to make any sort of Hall of Fame case for the guy, but rather to point out he has had a terribly underrated career and he is still producing at a very high level. In fact, through five starts this season he has already amassed +1 win.

If the Yankees have a fifth starter, it sure isn’t Andy Pettitte, and if any of their starters is going to be relegated into bullpen duty, it should not be Andy Pettitte. People really need to start realizing that what he brings to the table is not a marginal upgrade over an average or replacement pitcher but rather almost the guarantee of +3.5 to +4 wins.

Earlier this offseason I penned a couple of posts discussing the similarities and differences of both Andy Pettitte and Derek Lowe. At those stages, both pitchers were being heavily pursued by the Yankees and it seemed more than likely that only one of them would don pinstripes. Many were calling for Lowe to join a “super-rotation” already featuring CC Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, A.J. Burnett, and Joba Chamberlain. A few commenters aptly asked what the big difference was between Lowe and Pettitte.

In fact, some outright claimed that Pettitte was the better decision because a) his stats and projection were not unsimilar to those of Lowe, and b) Pettitte would only require a 1-yr deal. Lowe eventually signed a 4-yr/$60 mil deal with the Braves that came very close to properly valuing his projected contributions.

Over the last three seasons, Lowe has averaged +4.4 wins, with Pettitte at +4.2. Factoring in a bit of decline, both appear to be capable of 3.6-4.0 wins next season. At +3.8 wins, Pettitte’s fair market value is $17.1 mil. At +3.4, $15.3 mil. And, at +2.8, $12.6. Why those numbers? Well, Pettitte signed yesterday for $5.5 mil guaranteed with incentives potentially bumping the deal up to $12 mil. Those different win calculations were examples of my own thinking out loud to see how the Yankees are valuing his contributions.

I would venture a guess that the incentives are very easily reachable for someone with Pettitte’s track record. Otherwise, I’m sure he would have worked harder to increase the guaranteed portion of the contract. The Yankees are adding someone with similar win value to that of Lowe, for one year, and a lower average annual value. And, they are apparently paying a +3.7 or so win player as a +2.6 win player, assuming the incentives kick in.

Many are claiming that Pettitte is the “fifth” starter. Well, for all intents and purposes, that is one extremely good fifth starter given his likely #2 or #3 spot on 70% of the remaining teams out there. His signing isn’t blocking anyone outside of, say, Phil Hughes, but perhaps the team feels he needs another year split between the bullpen and rotation before he is deemed ready. Either way, Pettitte’s contract is up after this year, so the roadblock will go away. Overall, a great contract for the Yankees. Many people underestimate how effective Pettitte can be.

Players classified with the Type A tag are generally the big boys, the cream of the crop. These players are all amongst the top of their respective positions and tend to command larger and more lucrative contracts. The team signing a Type A free agent loses a draft pick, depending on its slot in the draft, which goes to the team losing the newly-signed player. Yesterday, we took a look at the three remaining Type A relief pitchers on the market. Naturally, the next step is to look at the available Type A starting pitchers.

CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett signed with the Yankees, removing them from this post. Both project nicely though Burnett has had an unhealthy injury history. With both of these pitchers off the market, just four Type A starting pitchers remain free agents: Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, and Ben Sheets.

Lowe has been discussed here time and time again. He will be 36 years old halfway through the 2009 season but has been the most durable and consistent of this bunch. The Mets have a 3-yr/$36 mil offer on the table that he and agent Scott Boras all but scoffed at. Lowe is seeking closer to $16 mil/yr which may be unrealistic given the current market heavily favoring the buyers. With a projection calling for a 3.67 FIP in 185 innings, Lowe would be worth +3.5 wins in 2009.

Assuming a dropoff of -0.6 wins each season, then Lowe would be worth near +8.7 wins over the life of a 3-yr deal. If the current dollars per win rate is $4.8 mil/win, and 10% inflation occurs over the next few seasons, then Lowe would be worth +3.5 wins at $16.8 mil in 2009; +2.9 wins at $15.4 mil in 2010; and +2.3 wins at $13.4 mil in 2011. All told, that is $45.5 mil, and he is seeking somewhere closer to a 3-yr/$48 mil deal. As was mentioned in earlier posts, once negotiations are ended, I fully expect Lowe to sign for about 3-yr/$45 mil, which would properly value his projected contributions.

Andy Pettitte has a similar projection to that of Lowe’s, calling for a 3.75 FIP in 187 innings. Pettitte recently rejected the 1-yr/$10 mil offer from the Yankees, as he does not want to receive a salary lower than the $16 mil he made in 2008. Perhaps the Yanks will up their offer but Pettitte has flirted with retirement before, and it would not be terribly shocking to see him call it quits if he cannot receive the “right” offer.

Anyways, a 3.75 FIP in 187 innings would place him around +3.3 wins. Properly valuing his contributions would result in a 1-yr/$15.8 mil deal. Basically, Pettitte deserves the same salary relative to his projected production. Given the Yankees payroll and the fact that he would be a significant upgrade over someone like Ian Kennedy, it just makes sense to sign him to this deal. Will it happen, though? Who knows. Probably not.

Oliver Perez seems to be the odd man out of this group, not just because he is the only pitcher of the four under 30 years old, but also because he projects to be worth under three wins. Using FIP, Perez looks like a 4.60 pitcher in 180 innings. This would deem him +1.6 wins. Even if we amend the FIP to be closer to his projected ERA of 4.30, he is merely average, at +2.1 wins. Perez is not anywhere in the vicinity of Sandy Koufax, as Scott Boras has claimed, but he does have value. A 3-yr/$28 mil deal would make sense for Ollie, though I can see that deal upping itself to 3-yr/$36 mil when Lowe inevitably signs his 3-yr/$45 mil contract.

Lastly, that leaves Ben Sheets, arguably the most talented of the group albeit the most oft-injured. At 30 years old, Sheets is still relatively young, but he has proven to be very brittle. When healthy, he is a dominant force, but the caveat beginning this sentence should speak volumes towards his durability. In any regard, his projection calls for a 3.60 FIP in 180 innings, placing him around +3.4 wins. While Pettitte and Lowe are durable enough to garner 3-yr deals and Perez is young enough to merit a similarly lengthed deal, a more responsibly GM would offer Sheets a 2-yr deal with options that automatically vest due to playing time.

I could see a team like the Rangers signing him to a 2-yr/$28 mil deal with a third and even fourth year option. Again, he might be the most talented, but his resume does not necessarily make decision makers eager to dish out large sums of money over extended periods of time. Later on, we will look at the Type A free agent hitters available.

Earlier today, we took a look at the potential super-rotation the New York Yankees may feature next year. They already signed CC Sabathia to a monster deal and are considered the front-runners for both A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe. With Mike Mussina retiring, and Andy Pettitte’s uncertainty, the aforementioned three would join forces with Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain to improve the rotation by approximately six full wins above replacement.

Brian Cashman left the Winter Meetings today to fly to Texas, in order to make a final offer to Andy Pettitte. The one-year offer is believed to be worth $10 mil, a paycut from Pettitte’s $16 mil salary in 2008. While Andy has not discussed wanting more than his fee last season, he has made it clear that he does not want to take a paycut. Cashman said that the offer for Pettitte would be to claim the final spot in the starting rotation. Assuming that the decision here is between Lowe and Pettitte, let’s weigh the pros and cons.

First off, what are their true talent level projections for 2009? Marcel forecasts Lowe to produce a 3.67 FIP in 185 IP. I would bump that up to around 3.80 given that he is going from the NL to the AL, so we can call him a 3.80 FIP pitcher in 185 IP. Compared to the replacement level, with a slight reward for pitching all those innings himself, and not allowing a poor reliever to enter, those numbers translate to +35 runs, +3.5 WAR.

Pettitte is projected to log 182 innings, with a 3.98 FIP. To make the comparison a bit easier, let’s bump him up to 185 IP, the same figure as Lowe, with a 4.00 FIP. Factoring in the same replacement level and slight reward, Pettitte in 2009 comes out to +31 runs, +3.1 WAR.

Therefore, Lowe is worth a bit under a half-win better than Pettitte based on their true talent levels. The fair market value for each, assuming $4.8 mil/win, would be $16.8 mil for Lowe and $14.9 mil for Pettitte. Replacing Lowe with Pettitte in the super-rotation will cost them 0.4 wins, meaning they would be worth +19.4 wins as opposed to +13.8 in 2008. This is still a substantial improvement, meaning the differences between Pettitte and Lowe are not that significant.

In terms of salary, however, it isn’t likely that either will earn their fair market value. As I mentioned earlier, Pettitte is being offered a take-it-or-leave-it, 1-yr/$10 mil deal. With a 10% discount rate factored in for the security of a long-term deal, Lowe would sign for 3-yrs/45 mil, or 4-yrs/60 mil. Therefore, that extra half-win of Lowe’s value would cost around $5 mil.

As commenter Steve Sanders pointed out, though, signing Pettitte instead of Lowe would give Cashman greater flexibility in the future. Pettitte would sign for a 1-yr deal, be an above average pitcher less than a half of a win worse than Lowe, and after this season, come off the books, freeing up more money to be spent elsewhere. In the past, Cashman would sign a plethora of players to multi-year deals, hamstringing himself in the process.

With Lowe, if we assume a dropoff of 0.35 wins per year, over the course of a 3-yr deal, he would go from 3.50 to 3.15 in 2010, to 2.80 in 2011. Perhaps the contention of those fans in favor of bringing back Pettitte for the 1-yr deal as opposed to signing Lowe is that they will get similar value in 2009, and be able to avoid paying $15 mil to a 2.80 win player in 2011, when some of their prospects may be ready for full-time rotation duty.

What say you, Yanks fans? Do you want Pettitte back for one year, or Lowe for a few years?