Archive for Brad Emaus

Small sample sizes kill — player development, that is.

Brad Emaus was supposed to be the man at second base for the New York Mets this year. At least that’s what any reasonable person could have anticipated after a Spring Training in which the team cut ties with Luis Castillo, sent Justin Turner to the minor leagues, and slapped the utility tag on Daniel Murphy. Emaus profiled well, as Joe Pawlikowski noted, comparing nicely to fellow former Rule 5 pick Dan Uggla. For every reason imaginable, it was easy to see why Emaus was the popular in-house candidate: a 25-year-old, cost-controlled player with potential seemed exactly what the Mets needed to get back on track.

But Emaus was removed as the everyday starter after only six games. And he’s started half of the last eight. It’s pretty easy to see why — he’s posted an anemic 162/.262/.162 in 42 PA — but is it the right decision, based on such a limited number of plate appearances?

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Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Ricky Romero, LHP
A former top draft pick, Romero finally realized his potential in ’09 after making mechanical adjustments during spring training. The southpaw, who just recently turned 25 years old, gave up a lot of hits (192 in 178.0 innings), but he posted a strikeout rate of 7.13 K/9 and did a nice job of inducing ground balls with a rate of 54%. Romero was not as sharp in the second half of the year, but he also battled some nagging injuries.

The Riser: Tim Collins, LHP
Collins was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of high school because he stands just 5’6” or so. The left-hander can still get his heater into the low 90s, though, and he couples that with a nice curveball. In high-A ball in ’09, the 20-year-old hurler allowed 47 hits in 64.2 innings of work. He struggles a bit with his control (3.90 BB/9), but he posted a strikeout rate of 13.78 K/9 and his rate has never dipped below 10.50 in three seasons. Because of his diminutive size, Collins is likely limited to the bullpen. At worst he should be a Major League loogy, as he posted a 0.95 WHIP against left-handed hitters in ’09.

The Tumbler: Kevin Ahrens, 3B
The Jays’ top pick out of high school in ’07, Ahrens has struggled with his bat throughout his pro career. In ’09, he hit just .215/.282/.302 in 377 at-bats in high-A ball. His .088 ISO will definitely not cut it at third base. His batting line was hindered by his .259 BABIP. Ahrens, a switch-hitter, batted just .212/.287/.283 against right-handers. On the plus side, the prospect is just 20 years old, so time is on his side. Ahrens will most definitely repeat high-A ball in 2010.

The ’10 Sleeper: Carlos Pina, LHP
Pina, a left-handed pitcher, generates a lot of ground balls (69.0%) and he can hit the low-90s with his fastball. The 19-year-old hurler made his North American debut in ’09 and allowed just 46 hits in 51.2 innings of work. He showed good control too, with a walk rate of 2.79 BB/9. The ground-ball pitcher posted a strikeout rate of 6.10 K/9, and that should rise as he improves his command of his entire repertoire, which includes a slider and change-up. Pina’s 1.57 ERA was misleading, as his FIP was 3.39.

Bonus: Brad Emaus, 2B
Highlighted as a sleeper entering ’09, Emaus slipped a bit despite hitting very well in last fall’s Hawaii Winter Baseball league. The second baseman struggled in double-A and posted a line of .253/.336/.376 with an ISO of .123 in 505 at-bats. The 23-year-old infielder did have a reasonable walk rate at 10.5% and his strikeout rate was nice at 13.7%. His overall numbers were definitely affected by a batting average of just .122 in June. Emaus should improve upon his .277 BABIP in 2010, although he could open the season back in double-A.

A number of prospects have risen swiftly though the system for the Jays in the past year. The club has also re-committed itself to finding prospects in Latin American, as well as Australia. The system is better than some think it is, but there is still a lot of work to be done. There are some interesting sleeper prospects in the low minors.

AAA/AA
The club has three southpaw starters that could see significant time in Toronto in 2009: Ricky Romero, Brad Mills, and Brett Cecil. All three received long looks this spring with Romero and Mills still under consideration for starting rotation spots. Romero, a former sixth overall draft pick out of college, has had a relatively disappointing career to this point, although he is making strides with his fastball command. He split 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A. Mills was selected in the 2007 draft as a college senior and he pitched at three levels last year and posted ERAs of 2.55, 1.35, and 1.10. Overall, he made 27 starts and succeeds by being aggressive and attacking the strike zone with average stuff. Cecil has an above-average repertoire for a southpaw and was a good college closer before being converted to a starter by the Jays. He needs to work on his fastball command but he could be ready by the middle of 2009. Cecil was slowed in 2008 by injuries but he still pitched at three levels and topped out in Triple-A.

Travis Snider should be considered an early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, especially with fellow rookies Matt Wieters (Baltimore) and David Price (Tampa Bay) beginning the year in the minors (What a good year for rookies in the AL East). Snider, 21, will be the everyday left fielder for Toronto. He was slowed at the beginning of 2008 by a bum elbow but he still managed to play at three minor league levels before making a 24-game appearance in the Majors where he hit .301/.338/.466 with two homers in 73 at-bats. Snider likely won’t hit for a high average early in his career thanks to high strikeout totals (32 K% in 362 Double-A at-bats), but he should provide plenty of power and he is a better outfielder than many think.

J.P. Arencibia is another powerful bat for the Jays. The catcher was selected in the first round of the 2007 draft out of college and split last season between High-A and Double-A. He hit .315/.344/.560 in 248 at-bats before a promotion to Double-A, where he posted a line of .282/.302/.496 in 262 at-bats. Arencibia tied Wieters for home runs with 27 but drove in more runs with 105. The downside to his offensive game is that he walked just 18 times last year, including a walk rate of just 2.6 BB% in Double-A. Arencibia will have to improve upon his patience if he is going to be an impact player in the Majors. He has made significant strides in improving his defense.

Scott Campbell began his pro career as a second baseman but is penciled in at third base for the Triple-A club in 2009, which will help add to his versatility. The left-handed hitter cannot hit southpaws at all and he has limited power so his future is likely as a platoon infielder or bench player. Campbell’s defense at second base was nothing to write home about. Offensively, though, he skipped over High-A ball in 2008 to play at Double-A and had his best offensive season. The 24-year-old infielder hit .302/.398/.427 with nine home runs in 417 at-bats. He posted rates of 13.7 BB% and 15.1 K%.

A+/A
The left-handed Tim Collins is generously listed as 5’7” which is why he went undrafted out of high school. General manager J.P. Ricciardi’s father noticed the pitcher at a high school game and tipped off his son, which allowed the Jays to buy Collins, 19, away from a junior college offer late in 2007. Last season in A-ball, the southpaw used a plus curveball and average fastball to allowed just 36 hits in 68.1 innings of work. He also posted rates of 4.21 BB/9 and 12.91 K/9.

Yet another southpaw, Luis Perez was a late blooming Latin America prospect who did not come over to North America until he was 22. Although he started off very poorly at A-ball in 2008, Perez turned things around. He allowed 136 hits in 137.1 innings and posted rates of 3.34 BB/9 and 8.98 K/9. In 212.2 innings in North America, the Dominican hurler has allowed just four home runs and he induces a ton of ground balls, along with the healthy number of strikeouts.

Second baseman Brad Emaus opened some eyes in his first full season. Originally viewed as a future utility player in the Scott Spiezio mold, Emaus now looks like a future regular, whose offense could possibly be strong enough to warrant a move to third base. In 2008, Emaus hit .302/.380/.463 with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. The 23-year-old also played well in the Hawaii Winter Baseball league with a .333 average and 17 walks (with just seven strikeouts) in 81 at-bats.

David Cooper was the club’s 2008 first round draft pick out of college. Cooper, a first baseman, was considered a step below the Top 3 first sackers in the draft: Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace (now a full-time third baseman), and Yonder Alonso. Regardless, Cooper had a stunning debut and played at three levels, topping out in High-A ball. The left-handed hitter hit .300 or more at each level and batted .304/.373/.435 with one home run in 92 High-A at-bats. Cooper has the skill to bat .300 in the Majors but his power is no better than average for the position and he needs a fair bit of work on his defense.

Raw+Toolsy+Prep = Exactly the type of player Toronto historically avoided under general manager J.P. Ricciardi. Justin Jackson, though, represented a departure from that stance, and Toronto is glad it made the change. The athletic and gifted fielder is still raw but he has displayed some promising skills at the plate and on the base paths, as well as in the field. The 20 year old shortstop hit just .238/.340/.368 with seven homers and 17 stolen bases in 454 at-bats, but he was one of the better hitters on his A-ball club in the first half of the season before tiring in his first full pro season.

Eric Eiland is another raw high schooler who was signed in 2007, like Jackson. Eiland though did not join Jackson in A-ball until later in the season after beginning the year in extended spring training. Once he reached A-ball, Eiland hit .233/.334/.305 with 23 stolen bases in 249 at-bats. He needs to work on his approach at the plate after posting a strikeout rate of 32.1 K%. His walk rate was a reasonable 12.9%.

Kevin Ahrens was the club’s first pick of the 2007 draft out of a Texas high school but he has fallen down the depth chart below both Arencibia and Jackson, two players drafted after him. Ahrens, like Jackson, struggled mightily in the second half of his first full pro season. Overall, he hit .259/.329/.367 with five home runs in 460 at-bats. Defensively, he is still getting accustomed to manning third base after playing shortstop in high school.

SS/R
Antonio Jimenez and Carlos Perez highlight a deep crop of catchers in the lower levels of the system. Jimenez was selected out of a Puerto Rico high school during the 2008 draft, while Perez was a quiet Latin America signing in 2007. Jimenez appeared in just 19 games after signing and hit .191/.255/.234. His defense is considered ahead of his bat and he is very athletic for a catcher (He stole five bases in seven attempts). Perez opened some eyes in his first pro season in the Dominican Summer League in 2008 and hit .306/.459/.378 in 196 at-bats. He also walked 52 times with just 28 strikeouts. His defense is not as strong as Jimenez’ but he is good enough to remain behind the dish long term.

The organization significantly improved its middle infield depth with the 2008-09 signings of Gustavo Pierre, Garis Pena and Nick Bidois. Both Pierre and Pena were signed out of Latin America for six-figure contracts, while Bidois was inked out of Australia. All three teenagers will move slowly and Pierre had Tommy John surgery during the off-season.

Up Next: The Atlanta Braves

The Graduate: Jesse Carlson | Born: December 1980 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Southpaw reliever Jesse Carlson finally reached the Major Leagues at the age of 27 and in his second tour of duty in the Jays’ system. Originally a 15th round selection out of college by Detroit, Carlson bounced around the minors for parts of seven seasons and spent four seasons at Double-A. He received his first MLB promotion early in 2008 and ended up appearing in 69 big league games. He allowed just 41 hits in 60 innings of work with rates of 3.15 BB/9 and 8.25 K/9. A fastball-slider pitcher, Carlson actually used his slider more often than his fastball in 2008 (42.7% to 56.1%). Bill James’ projection for 2009 expects Carlson to remain a productive left-handed reliever, leaving the Jays with four quality left-handed relievers: Carlson, B.J. Ryan, Scott Downs, and Brian Tallet.

The Riser: J.P. Arencibia | Born: January 1986 | Catcher

A 2007 first-round draft pick, J.P. Arencibia is arguably one of the Top 3-5 catching prospects in all of baseball, with the Orioles’ Matt Wieters firmly at No. 1. Arencibia split 2008 between High-A ball and Double-A and hit 27 home runs and drove in 105 runs. He also significantly improved his defence and will have no problems remaining behind the plate, which was a concern during his college career. Arencibia needs to work on his patience at the plate if he is going to hit for a respectable average at the Major League level. He walked less than four percent of the time this past season and often swings at the first pitch, which is something experienced pitchers will exploit.

The Tumbler: Trystan Magnuson | Born: June 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A late-blooming college reliever, Trystan Magnuson was nabbed by the Jays in the 2007 supplemental first round as a college senior for his impressive fastball. Moved to the starting rotation in 2008, Magnuson was brutal in the first half and posted an 11.85 ERA in five May starts. He settled down in the second half of the season. Overall, he allowed 91 hits in 81.2 innings and posted rates of 3.86 BB/9 and 5.40 K/9. He’ll turn 24 in June and will probably begin 2009 back in A-ball so it might be wise to converted him back to a reliever in the hopes that he can accelerate his timetable to the Majors.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Tyler Pastornicky | Born: December 1989 | Shortstop

The Jays jumped back into the prep drafting pool in 2008, after finding success in 2007 – the first year the organization had spent heavily on drafting high school players in five years. Taken in the fifth round, Tyler Pastornicky was a little more advanced than the Jays had expected and he hit .263/.348/.356 with 27 stolen bases in 50 Rookie Ball games. He also took 21 walks, while striking out just 21 times. Impressively, his offensive numbers improved in each month, from June to August, as he made adjustments. Pastornicky showed solid hands in the field too, and he made just six errors in 38 games at shortstop.

The ’09 Sleeper: Brad Emaus | Born: March 1986 | Second Baseman

There weren’t many players that improved their stocks more in 2008 than Brad Emaus. The second baseman, in just his first full season, impressed offensively despite skipping over A-ball and beginning the year in High-A ball. Emaus hit .302/.381/.463 with a .161 ISO during the regular season and then dominated the Hawaii Winter Baseball league by hitting .333/.447/.494 (and taking 17 walks compared to just seven strikeouts) in 26 games. The Jays now have some depth up the middle, as fellow second base prospect Scott Campbell also had a breakout season in Double-A. At worst, Emaus should be able to have a similar career to former A’s infielder Scott Spiezio.

Up Next: The Colorado Rockies