Archive for Brad Holt

General Manager: Omar Minaya
Scouting Director: Rudy Terrasas

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Major League squad may still look a little rough around the edges but the minor league system is starting to round into shape. The first four players on the list all received consideration for the top spot, while the last six could all face big breakout seasons. The ’09 draft did not infuse much talented into the system.

1. Fernando Martinez, OF, Majors
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Although some have already, it is far too early to give up on Martinez. Just 21 years old, the Dominican outfielder just needs to have a healthy season. When he did get on the field in ’09, he hit .290/.337/.540 with an ISO of .250 as a 20 year old in triple-A. That is pretty darn impressive. He reached his ’08 total in home runs in about half the at-bats. Martinez actually had a career-high OPS of .877 in ’09. He also kept his strikeout rate below 20% at 18.8%, but it would be nice to see more patience at the plate (5.9% walk rate). At the MLB level, he was over-matched and hit just .176/.242/.275 in 95 at-bats. With a career line against southpaws of .237/.308/.392, he has some work to do against lefties. Despite that, he still has a chance to be a very good player.

2. Ike Davis, 1B, Double-A
DOB: March 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Arizona State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A lot of eyebrows were raised (including mine) when Davis hit zero homers in his ’08 debut, which spanned 239 plate appearances. He responded to the criticism in a big way in ’09 and split the year between high-A and double-A while slugging 20 homers and 31 doubles. At the higher level, the first baseman hit .309/.386/.565 in 233 at-bats. He posted a wOBA of .426 and an eye-popping ISO of .256. Davis also showed a willingness to take a walk (11.2 BB%) but his strikeouts started to get out of hand (29.0 K%). He has some work to do against lefties, as seen by his OPS split: .672 against left-handers compared to 1.000 against right-handers. One caution about Davis’ breakout season: He’s a slow-footed player that posted a BABIP of .350 at high-A and .381 in double-A, so we’re likely to see his batting average come down in 2010, especially if the strikeout rate remains high.

3. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, High-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-96 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Mejia did not turn 20 until after the season ended and he reached double-A as a teenager, which says a lot about his potential. The right-hander began the year in high-A where he posted a FIP of 2.52 and allowed 41 hits in 50.1 innings. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.86, but that jumped to 4.67 BB/9 in 44.1 double-A innings. His strikeout rate of 7.87 also increased with the promotion, though, to 9.54 K/9. Mejia allowed just two home runs on the season, thanks to a ground-ball rate just shy of 60%, which is outstanding for a flame-thrower. He dominated left-handed batters, as seen by his 10.71 K/9 rate against them, and they hit just .247 against Mejia despite a .354 BABIP. After making just 19 starts in 2009, the talented youngster should open 2010 back in double-A but he could reach the Majors by the end of the season, if needed.

4. Wilmer Flores, SS, Low-A
DOB: August 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Another young player, Flores is just 18 years old and he spent much of the year playing in low-A ball at the age of 17. Overall, he had a ‘foundation year’ with a line of .264/.305/.332 in 488 at-bats. His BABIP was just .305 so we can expect to see a bump in that in the future even though he lacks blazing speed. Flores has raw power, but he posted an ISO of just .068. He needs to show more patience at the plate after posting a walk rate of just 4.3% but he handled the bat well and struck out just 14.8% of the time. Because he profiles as a third baseman down the line, Flores will need to focus on getting stronger and driving the ball more (12.5 LD%) in 2010. He’ll likely be pushed up to high-A this coming year.

5. Jonathon Niese, LHP, Majors
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 7th round – Ohio HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, cutter, curveball, change-up

Many Mets were cursed by injuries in ’09 and Niese was one of them. A torn hamstring tendon ended his season prematurely in August after he had made just five MLB starts. Despite that fact, Niese left a solid impression after posting a 3.25 FIP in 25.2 innings. His most effective pitch was a newly-honed cutter. Earlier in the season, the southpaw showed his MLB-readiness by posting a 3.38 FIP and 55% ground-ball rate in 94.1 triple-A innings, while also showing good control with a walk rate of 2.48 BB/9. Niese should be healthy and ready to go in spring training so he has a good shot at winning a spot in the MLB starting rotation.

6. Brad Holt, RHP, Double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – University of North Carolina – Wilmington
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, splitter

Holt had two distinct seasons in ’09. After a dominating pro debut, he opened ’09 by posting a 3.18 FIP in nine high-A starts. He also posted a strikeout rate of 11.22 and showed solid control (2.70 BB/9). Moved up to double-A, though, Holt struggled with a 5.01 FIP (6.21 ERA) and allowed 58 hits in 58.0 innings, despite a BABIP of just .292. His walk rate rose to 3.57 BB/9 and his strikeout rate plummeted to 6.98 K/9. He also struggled with the long ball (1.40 HR/9), and his ground-ball rate on the season was poor at 38%. Holt, 23, will certainly return to double-A in 2010 and look to conquer the league in his second try.

7. Ruben Tejada, SS, Double-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The organization has been extremely aggressive with the slick-fielding shortstop. Despite hitting just .229/.293/.296 in high-A in ’08, the Mets promoted Tejada to double-A in ’09 and he hit .289/.351/.381 in 488 at-bats. His wOBA jumped from .277 in ’08 to .346 in ’09. He also showed improved base running and was successful in 19 of his 22 attempts. Tejada is a free swinger, who posted a walk rate of 7.0% but struck out just 12.1% of the time. He should move up to triple-A in ’09 but he’s currently blocked by incumbent shortstop Jose Reyes. Luckily for Tejada, the veteran player was injury-prone in ’09. The youngster could also slide over to second base.

8. Josh Thole, C, Triple-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 13th round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

This converted catcher has his share of doubters, but he’s done nothing but hit over the past two seasons with a batting average above .300. He even received a 17-game trial in the Majors at the end of the season and hit .321/.356/.396 in 53 at-bats. At double-A, Thole hit .328/.395/.422 in 384 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has walked more than he struck out for three straight seasons and posted a BB/K at double-A of 1.24. He doesn’t need to be platooned, as he actually has a better career batting average against southpaws (.317 vs .284). On the down side, Thole has little power and posted an ISO of .094 in the minors and .075 at the MLB level. Defensively, he’s still learning the position but he improved his throwing in ’09 and nabbed 30% of runner trying to steal.

9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Azusa Pacific University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Nieuwenhuis’ first full pro season was a success, as he hit .274/.357/.467 in 482 high-A at-bats, while also playing a solid center field. The speedy player also stole 16 bases in 20 attempts and showed surprising power with an ISO of .193. His strikeout rate was high at 28.1% but he offset that a bit with a solid walk rate at 11.1%. He has work to do against southpaws after hitting just .235/.294/.348. The outfielder received an eight-game trial in double-A and he should head back there in 2010.

10. Jeurys Familia, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Familia is a hard-throwing right-hander who is still quite raw. However, despite being basically a one-pitch pitcher in ’09 (the fastball), he more than held his own in low-A ball at the age of 19. In 134.0 innings, he allowed just 109 hits, thanks in part to a .283 BABIP. He showed good control for his age with a walk rate of 3.09 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was modest at 7.32 K/9. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50% at 48.8%. Familia did not allow a home run to a left-handed hitter all year (217 batters) but his strikeout rate was just 4.83 K/9 against them. If Familia can continue to grow as a pitcher, he could be a real breakout candidate in 2010.

Up Next: The Baltimore Orioles

2008 Draft Slot: 18th overall
Top Pick: Ike Davis, 1B/OF, Arizona State University
Best Pick: Reese Havens, IF, University of South Carolina (1st round, 22nd overall)
Keep an Eye On: Javier Rodriguez, OF, Puerto Rico high school (2nd round)
Notes: Javier Rodriguez was the first selection out of Puerto Rico but he hit just .193 in his rookie-ball debut. No one is worried, though, as the outfielder is very young and loaded with talent. Both Ike Davis and Reese Havens had disappointing debuts, while supplemental first round pick Brad Holt surprised everyone with his success. All three are in high-A ball in 2009 and Holt is still pitching well. Havens is showing more power than people expected (7 HR, .225 ISO) but he’s struggling to hit for average (.254). Davis is hitting for average, but he has just one home run in 352 at-bats, which is puzzling and very, very worrisome.

2007 Draft Slot: 42nd overall (Supplemental first round)
Top Pick: Eddie Kunz, RHP, Oregon State University
Best Pick: Dillon Gee, RHP, U of Texas-Arlington (21st round)
Worst Pick: Nathan Vineyard, LHP, Georgia high school (Supplemental 1st round, 47th overall)
Notes: Nathan Vineyard was not overly effective as a pro before blowing out his shoulder. He should be back in the second half of May, but it remains to be seen how effectively he’ll be as he already didn’t throw very hard prior to surgery and his best pitch (a slider) may have been the cause of the injury. Eddie Kunz is a perfect example of why it’s risky to choose relievers early in the draft. If a starter struggles, he can move to the bullpen. If a reliever struggles, he… Dillon Gee was a steal in the 21st round as he is already in triple-A and pitching well. The downside is that with a modest fastball that plays up due to command and control, Gee’s ceiling is that of a No. 4 starter or middle reliever.

2006 Draft Slot: 62nd overall (Second round)
Top Pick: Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Villanova University
Best Pick: Daniel Murphy, 3B, Jacksonville University (13th round)
Worst Pick: John Holdzkom, RHP, Salt Lake community college (4th round)
Notes: Like brother Lincoln, John Holdzkom just could not stay out of trouble or make the most of his blazing fastball. Daniel Murphy, already in New York, was a steal in the 13th round and he would be even better if he could play defense like he can hit. Now with the Twins organization, Kevin Mulvey – who has yet to get to the Majors – was used as part of the bait for Johan Santana.

2009 Draft Slot: 72nd overall (Second round)
Draft Preference (2006-08): College pitchers and hitters
MLB Club Need: First base, Starting pitcher, Catcher, Left field
Organizational Need: Outfield, Second base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Shortstop, Third base
Notes: Thanks to the signing of closer Francisco Rodriguez, the Mets will not pick until 71 players have already gone off the board, so the club will have to scout really well to find a good sleeper, or hope that a top player slides due to signability concerns. The good news is that the club has worked with similar draft scenarios in the past few seasons, so it should be getting used to it. The bad news is that the club has had a number of disappointing drafts for that very reason. Another plus, though, is that the organization does very, very well in the international market, which always seems to make up for poor draft showings.

The New York Mets minor league system sits in the middle-of-the-pack talent wise. There is some depth, but there are a limited number of high-ceiling players. A lot of the top-level talent comes from players acquired during the 2008 draft.

AAA/AA
Jonathon Niese was drafted out of high school in the seventh round of the 2005 draft by the Mets and it looks like the move is about ready to pay off for the organization. The southpaw split the 2008 season between Double-A and Triple-A, while also making a three-game appearance at the Major League level. Niese spent most of the year in Double-A where he allowed 118 hits in 124.1 innings of work and posted rates of 3.18 BB/9 and 8.11 K/9. This spring, Niese has struggled with his command and control but he should be one of the first pitchers recalled if an injury strikes the starting rotation. He has an 87-91 mph fastball, plus curveball and change-up.

Bobby Parnell is another young pitcher who has a chance of impacting the Mets’ big-league roster in 2009. Parnell, though, is likely headed to the bullpen despite spending most of his pro career in the rotation. Like Niese, Parnell spent time at three levels in 2008 but spent the majority of his season in Double-A. The right-hander allowed 126 hits in 127.2 innings of work and posted rates of 4.02 BB/9 and 6.52 K/9. He made six appearances out of the bullpen for the Mets and posted a 5.40 ERA despite allowing just three hits in five innings. He is being considered for a bullpen spot this spring, even though his control has been below average. Parnell’s repertoire includes a fastball that can hit the upper 90s, a good slider and a change-up.

Eddie Kunz was nabbed by the Mets in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft out of Oregon State University. Kunz was a desirable commodity because he was expected to be near-MLB ready after his college career but he has been inconsistent so far in pro ball, thanks in part to poor control. He did have a solid time in Double-A in 2008, though, and allowed just 39 hits in 48.1 innings. Kunz also posted rates of 4.66 BB/9 and 8.01 K/9. He struggled in brief stints at both Triple-A and the Majors and will continue to work on his control in the minors in 2009.

If you don’t know who Fernando Martinez is, then you haven’t been following the Mets’ minor league system for very long. The Dominican outfielder has been among the system’s top prospects since he came to North America in 2006 as a 17 year old. Martinez rose as high as Double-A at the age of 18 and has spent the last two (injury-filled) seasons at that level. He has just 588 at-bats at Double-A in two years. In 2008, Martinez hit .287/.340/.432 with eight home runs and six stolen bases. For his value to really skyrocket, he’ll need to add more power to his game, but he is still young. Defensively, if he continues fills out and lose a step or two, Martinez will likely move from center to left field. He should spend most of the year in Triple-A.

Nick Evans will be familiar to most Mets fans because he appeared in 50 games for the club in 2008, but retains his rookie eligibility because he had just 109 at-bats. He hit .257/.303/.404 with just two home runs. Evans, 23, played in the Majors earlier than anyone thought he would be after injuries struck the big league club. He’s likely headed back down to the minors to continue developing his game at Triple-A. Evans needs to learn to make use of his power more consistently in game situations, and he also needs to be more patient at the plate after walking just seven times in his debut (6.0 BB%).

A+/A
Wilmer Flores, 17, has the potential to be an outstanding player after hitting .310/.352/.490 in 245 rookie ball at-bats in 2008 as a 16-year-old shortstop. It was an even more impressive performance considering that it was his first year in North America too. The Venezuelan also earned a few at-bats in short-season ball and A-ball, which is where he will likely spend the 2009 season. Defensively, he should move off shortstop to third base in the next two seasons. Flores’ power should develop enough to make him an impact player at that position as well.

SS/R
Brad Holt is already being considered the steal of the 2008 draft, having been selected in the supplemental first round out of college. The right-hander posted a 1.87 ERA (2.62 FIP) with 43 hits allowed in 73.1 short-season innings. He also posted rates of 4.11 BB/9 and 11.94 K/9. Holt’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch the high 90s but his secondary pitches – a slider and change-up – are lacking, which could cause him to struggle at higher levels. Holt will definitely begin the 2009 season in either High-A or possibly even Double-A.

Jenrry Mejia and Jefry Marte are two more impressive Latin-America finds for the Mets. Mejia, a right-handed starting pitcher, allowed 42 hits in 56.2 short-season innings in 2008. The 19 year old posted rates of 3.65 BB/9 and 8.26 K/9 and should begin 2009 in A-ball. Marte, 17, is a powerful third-base prospect who hit .325/.398/.532 with 14 doubles and four homers in 154 rookie ball at-bats last year. Defensively, he is athletic enough to remain at the hot corner long term.

Both Reese Havens and Ike Davis were selected out of college ahead of fellow 2008 draftee Holt but they both struggled. Havens, who could end up as a catcher or second baseman, struggled with injuries and failed to appear in a regular season game. Davis appeared in 58 games but was a huge disappointment by hitting just .256/.326/.326 with no home runs and just 17 RBI.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays

The Graduate: Daniel Murphy | Born: April 1985 | 3B/OF

This former 13th round pick (2006) spent 2007 in High-A ball and ended 2008 as an important part of a team racing towards the playoffs. Thanks in part to his versatility, and hot bat, Daniel Murphy appeared in 29 games for the Mets and hit .313/.397/.473 in 131 at-bats. His left-handed bat, mix of speed and power, and ability to play third base, first base and the outfield should ensure him a spot on the Mets’ bench in 2009.

The Riser: Wilmer Flores | Born: August 1991 | Shortstop

The Mets knew they had something special when Wilmer Flores was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela, but they didn’t expect him to be this good this fast. Flores, who did not turn 17 until August, displayed amazing power for his age with an ISO of .180 in Rookie Ball, which earned him a late-season promotion to the New York Penn League (A league dominated by college draft picks). The only real knock on Flores is his lack of patience (4.7 BB%).

The Tumbler: Nick Carr | Born: April 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The good news is that not many Mets prospects took a step back in 2008. Nick Carr, though, had a disappointing season as a 21-year-old in High-A ball. He allowed 103 hits and 50 walks in 94.2 innings, along with 80 strikeouts. He learned the importance of changing speeds and must continue to work on his change-up if he wants to remain a starter.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Brad Holt | Born: August 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Brad Holt’s selection in the supplemental first round of the 2008 draft did not draw a lot of attention, but his subsequent pro debut season certainly did. Holt allowed just 43 hits in 71.1 innings, along with rates of 4.11 BB/9 and 11.94 K/9, in Short Season ball. Obviously the walks need to come down, but he has likely earned a promotion to High-A ball in 2009 and is on the fast track to New York.

The ’09 Sleeper: Jefry Marte | Born: June 1991 | Third Baseman

Jefry Marte was not as heralded a signing as Flores, but he still received half a million dollars last year as a 16-year-old. The third baseman was considered raw in many areas, but that did not show in the Rookie League this season when he hit .325/.398/.532 with a .208 ISO in 154 at-bats. His walk rate of 7.8% is OK, especially given his age and lack of experience. He could be in full-season ball next season as a 17-year-old.

Next Up: The Los Angeles Angels