Episode Ten
In which the panel tries not to over-extend itself.
Headlines
Justin Upton’s Contract in Context
Thither Adrian Gonzalez?
Travis Hafner’s Herniated Everything
… and other moving speeches!
Featuring
Dave Cameron
Joe Pawlikowski
Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio on the flip-flop.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Reputations are interesting in the sense that they can alter our perception of a player. For instance, Jon Garland, who just signed a questionable deal with the Diamondbacks, has the reputation of a durable, grounder-inducing pitcher. This reputation is sound given that he routinely logs 200+ IP in 33+ GS, but it also masks his shortcomings. Adversely, the reputation for falling prey to injuries can mask a player’s true production level. Just look at Ben Sheets: 130 IP of Sheets at the top of his game is more productive than 200 IP from someone like Garland.
And the lack of a reputation prevents similar pitchers from being acknowledged. Which brings us to Braden Looper, an average or so pitcher who projects to perform similarly to this past season in 2009, performance similar to that of Garland’s. Despite the similarities, Looper lacks the reputation or track record of being extremely durable. I have seen perhaps two teams expressing even cursory interest in the veteran. The track record set by Garland may be worth the extra interest and salary, but this is interesting nonetheless.
If Looper throws 185 IP with a 4.54 FIP, down from the 199 at 4.52 in 2008, he would still be worth right around +1.65 wins. No, this isn’t going to light the world on fire, but he isn’t going to cost much, especially in this economy, and the return is not going to be that far off of someone like Garland. Looper would have made more sense for a team like the Mets than Tim Redding, yet his name never even surfaced.
Randy Wolf’s recent reputation comes as an injury-prone pitcher. From 2005-07, he managed just 43 starts coming off of Tommy John Surgery. Still, in 18 starts during the 2007 season, Wolf produced +1.7 wins. Last season, in 33 GS and 190 IP, he produced +2.0 wins. It seems safe to say that Wolf is, at worst, a +1.8 win pitcher next year. Exceeding the league average production in 2008 is not out of the question, either, given that he has now pitched a full post-surgery season.
Garland, Looper, and Wolf all project quite similarly to each other in 2009. Despite this, Looper’s lack of a reputation and Wolf’s supposed inability to stay on the field are important enough to teams that these pitchers are rarely mentioned. If a team seeks a decent 4th or 5th starter to fill out their rotation, one that does not come at too steep of a price, either of these two is likely to be just as productive as Garland, if not better.
Though most of the offseason attention has been spent discussing where top-tier pitchers like CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe will sign, several hurlers capable of filling out the middle to back of the rotation were available. Daniel Cabrera became the most recent of these pitcher to sign, when he inked a one year deal with the Nationals. Tim Redding is currently seeking a two-year deal, and may very well receive one from the New York Mets. Another pitcher along these lines, likely better than Cabrera and Redding, is Braden Looper.
Looper, 34, spent the last three seasons on the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2006, he appeared in 69 games out of the bullpen, putting together a solid season with a 3.46 FIP. Looper moved to the rotation the next season, where he logged 175 innings while posting a 4.82 FIP. He did not exactly take the league by storm but had value above replacement level and made just $4.5 mil.
This past season, Braden earned $5.5 mil while recording a 4.52 FIP in 199 innings. With a slight bonus for pitching about 200 innings, Looper was a +2 win pitcher in 2008.
In 2009, Marcel projects Looper to be a 4.53 FIP pitcher in 170 innings. I think it is more realistic he will log closer to 180 innings. Let’s call him a 180 inning pitcher with a 4.60 FIP, which would result in 92 runs allowed. A replacement level starter with a 5.50 FIP in 150 innings would allow 92 runs. The replacement reliever would amass the remaining 30 innings at a 4.50 FIP, allowing 15 runs in the process.
This places Looper at +15 runs above replacement, and we can add another two runs as a bonus for pitching 180 innings. With these numbers, Looper projects to be a +1.5 to +1.7 win pitcher next season. At the going rate of $5 mil/win, Looper’s fair market value would be set at $8.5 mil, $3 mil more than his salary last season.
It is somewhat surprising that Looper’s name has not surfaced in rumors or reports as often as the likes of Cabrera and Redding. Considering the fact that he has proven himself better and projects more optimistically than either of the aforementioned pitchers, that only one report features Braden’s potential new location—Milwaukee—seems odd. How does Redding have several reported suitors yet Looper only has one, and that has not even been confirmed?
Regardless, whichever team ends up inking him to a deal will be getting a pitcher who, last season, showed a big improvement in his O-Swing%, increasing from 20% to 25%. At the same time, his Z-Swing%, which measures pitches swung at in the strike zone, dropped by an almost equal amount. His percentage of first strikes rose from 55% to 62% and he sustained a 51% rate of pitches thrown in the strike zone. Put together, he was able to increase swings on bad pitches and decrease swings on good pitches, while avoiding throwing more pitches out of the zone and getting ahead more often.
Looper may be 34, and he might not have the power potential of a Cabrera, or the potential cheap fee like a Redding, but he can definitely strengthen the back end of a rotation.
