Archive for Brandon Allen

The Diamondbacks have capitalized on the Giants’ offensive ineptitude and slew of injuries, winning eight of their last 11 games and taking a two-and-a-half game lead in the National League West. A year after losing 97 games, the team is primed for a playoff push. Arizona hasn’t missed a beat, despite issues that might have taken down a lesser team. Losing Stephen Drew and lacking an everyday first baseman might push other teams out of the race, but the Diamondbacks are playing some of their best baseball right now.

Their success is a testament to an improved bullpen, potent offense and a young, effective starting rotation. But the rotation would be even more potent these days had the team not made a questionable trade last season — a trade that seems even stranger by the month and is still without reasonable justification. It’s a trade that — if avoided and all else were held constant — would likely have the D-backs with a firm handle on a playoff berth. It’s a trade that sent one of the best starters in baseball, Dan Haren, to the Angels for Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs, Rafael Rodriguez and Pat Corbin.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re pleased to welcome Eric Seidman back to FanGraphs today. Despite taking a 20 month sabbatical, he is still second among writers in post count here on the site. He’ll be contributing his thoughts here on a regular basis, and we’re pleased to welcome our own prodigal back home.

Brandon Allen has done everything a prospect can do to prove he deserves a legitimate major league opportunity, but the Diamondbacks seem unwilling to give their young slugger an extended look. With the emergence of Juan Miranda as a potential starter and the news that Russell Branyan will make the opening day roster, Allen appears to be the odd man out at first base. Since the team signed Xavier Nady to an incentive-laden major league deal and is committed to giving Gerardo Parra another shot as a starter, Allen also finds himself on the outside looking in at a crowded outfield. Add in that he has options remaining and it becomes increasingly likely with each passing day that he will open the season back in the Diamondbacks farm system, a destination he has completely outgrown.

Over 688 Triple-A plate appearances since 2009, Allen has hit .277/.397/.541 with passable defense at both first base and left field. He’s young, cost-controlled, and clearly capable of producing at a high level, but for whatever reason the Snakes lack confidence in his abilities. Scouts have expressed concern about his swing, but anybody with those numbers at the highest level of minor league competition deserves serious major league consideration.

Read the rest of this entry »

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Farm Director: Mike Berger
Scouting Director: Tom Allison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Perhaps no team’s Top 10 list would benefit more if 2009 draftees were included. The system, hurting for depth, was served some serious CPR this past season. Players who could be in the Top 10, if eligible, include: Matt Davidson, Ryan Wheeler, Marc Krauss, Mike Belfiore, Chris Owings, A.J. Pollock, Keon Broxton, and Bobby Borchering… but you read about those eight prospects in yesterday’s draft review, so you’re basically getting a Top 18 prospect list with this organization (please, save the applause).

1. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Indiana HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, plus slider, curveball, change-up

If not for Tommy John surgery, Parker might have been pitching at the MLB level in late ’09 or early 2010. As it stands now, he’ll spend the year trying to recapture his previous form. The right-hander was having a nice season in ’09 pre-injury. He blew through high-A in four dominating starts and then made 16 more appearances in double-A before the elbow popped. He allowed 82 hits in 78.1 innings of work, while also showing OK control with a walk rate of 3.91 BB/9 and posting good strikeout numbers (8.50 K/9). Parker also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.23 HR/9) due to his ground-ball rate of 55%. If he can regain his previous fastball velo, and keep up the ground-ball rate, Parker could be a No. 1 or 2 starter in the Majors.

2. Brandon Allen, 1B, Majors
DOB: February 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2004 5th round – Texas HS (Chicago AL)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

A nice grab from the White Sox (a club that also gave up on Oakland’s Chris Carter), Allen had a breakout ’09 season and looked like he might have a shot at the MLB job in 2010 until the organization signed free agent Adam LaRoche. The soon-to-be-24-year-old will receive another year of seasoning in triple-A unless LaRoche goes down with an injury. Allen played for four teams (three levels) in ’09 and he made his MLB debut. In total, he slugged 34 homers and possesses massive power that could allow him to hit 30+ in the Majors if he can make enough contact. In 104 MLB at-bats, the slugger struck out at a rate of 38.5%, which was about 18% more often than he struck out in the minors in ’09. Allen has done a nice job of getting on-base during his career, with multiple seasons of +10% walk rates.

3. Cole Gillespie, OF, Triple-A
DOB: June 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 3rd round – Oregon State University (Milwaukee)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Gillespie was acquired last season from Milwaukee and is your typical fringe-regular. He does a lot of things well, but nothing stands out. He doesn’t have enough range to play center field, so he’s stuck on a corner and that shines a lot more light on his bat, which is average. A gap hitter, Gillespie projects to hit around 10-15 homers and steal about the same number of bases. His best bet for a prolonged MLB career is as a fourth outfielder in the Reed Johnson mold. He spent much of the ’09 season where he hit .242/.332/.424 in 236 at-bats and his BABIP was on the low side at .289. In triple-A for Arizona, he hit .304/.418/.514, but was aided by a BABIP of .363. Gillespie does a nice job of getting on base (+10% walk rate) but he strikes out too much for his average power.

4. Collin Cowgill, OF, High-A
DOB: May 22, 1986 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2008 5th round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Cowgill is an interesting player and not that dissimilar from Gillespie. Just 5’9”, he’s shown some good pop for his size but he doesn’t project to be a power hitter in the Majors. More likely than not, he’s going to end up as a fourth outfielder or platoon player. He battled injuries in ’09 and had just 220 at-bats in high-A. His triple-slash line was .277/.373/.445 and he showed good patience at the plate with a walk rate of 11.2%. His strikeout rate was a bit high at 22.3%. He added 11 steals in 15 tries. If given full playing time in the Majors, Cowgill would likely produce some 15-15 seasons. It will be interesting to see what he can do in double-A in 2010.

5. Wade Miley, LHP, High-A
DOB: November 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Southeastern Louisiana University
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, slider, curveball, change-up

A personal favorite of mine from the ’08 draft, Miley has developed slowly. The southpaw, already 23, spent the majority of the year in low-A where he allowed a lot of hits (127) in 113.2 innings of work. On the plus side, he showed good control with a walk rate of 2.30 BB/9. His strikeout rate was modest at 7.21 K/9. Overall, he posted a FIP of 3.38 but at his age, and experience level, he should have dominate the league. He received three starts in high-A and that’s where he should begin the 2010 season, and will look to have a little more luck on his side after posting a high BABIP and a low strand rate.

6. Leyson Septimo, LHP, Double-A
DOB: July 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire:91-95 mph fastball, slider

A former outfielder who wasn’t totally useless at the plate (He hit .270 before his conversion to the mound), Septimo is now trying to harness his plus-fastball as a reliever. In ’09 at high-A, he allowed 29 hits in 38.1 innings of work while and he struck out batters at a rate of 10.33 K/9. He moved up to double-A and posted a strikeout rate of 12.27 K/9. It’s his control that is holding him back, though, and he posted a walk rate of 6.10 at high-A and 8.84 BB/9 in double-A. With just under 100 innings of pitching experience, it’s no surprise that Septimo’s control is off, but he’s turning 25 in July and he hasn’t dominated left-handed batters.

7. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Low-A
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Just 20, this former third-round pick is still raw but he remains an interesting shortstop prospect. While spending ’09 in low-A, Navarro hit .262/.308/.339 in 451 at-bats. The weaknesses are clear: his walk rate is just 5.5% and his ISO rate was .078. Navarro does have some speed and he swiped 12 bases in 16 tries. He also did a nice job of trimming his ’08 strikeout rate from 26.5% to 18.8% in ’09, giving hope that he could develop into a No. 2 hitter. Defensively, he has good range for the position but his arm might get him moved off the position to second base. Navarro is a long way off from reaching the Majors, but his potential appears to be that of a starting shortstop on a second-tier club.

8. Cesar Valdez, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Valdez is a soft-tosser whose best pitch is a change-up. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. Even so, he’s had success in the minors, although he hit a speed bump in ’09 at triple-A (5.18 FIP in 19 games). The right-hander began the year in double-A, where he allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings and posted a 3.00 FIP. He has good control (2.81 BB/9 in triple-A) but his strikeout rates are modest, as he pitches to contact due to his lack of a true out-pitch. Valdez does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and should produce a ground-ball rate around 50%. Because of his fringe-stuff, he could end up as a middle reliever.

9. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Majors
DOB: May 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 2nd round – Villanova University (New York NL)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

Part of the ill-fated Johan Santana trade between the Twins and Mets, Mulvey made his way from the Twins to the Diamondbacks in ’09. He had a respectable, but far from dominant, year in triple-A for the Twins where he posted a 3.96 FIP and allowed 153 hits in 149.0 innings. He showed average control and posted a walk rate of 3.25 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was low at 6.83 K/9. The right-hander struggled in eight MLB appearances split between the Twins and the Diamondbacks. His ceiling is probably that of a No. 4 starter or long/middle reliever. Mulvey has a pretty good slider, but he needs to improve his fastball command so he can set up his out-pitch.

10. Roque Mercedes, RHP, Double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Another ’09 trade acquisition, Mercedes had a nifty season in the bullpen for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks organizations. The right-hander began the year in high-A and posted a 2.19 FIP in 29 games. Batters managed to hit just .181 against him and he posted a strikeout rate of 9.72 K/9. His walk rate was OK at 3.24 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run. Moved up to double-A after the trade, Mercedes’ FIP rose to 3.67 and he allowed 14 hits in 19.0 innings. His walk rate jumped to 4.74 BB/9 but his K-rate rose to 11.84 K/9. The 23-year-old pitcher is probably still a year away from the Majors and his ceiling is probably that of an eighth-inning set-up man.

Up Next: The Los Angeles Angels

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next week, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Yesterday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Today, we’ll have a peek at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster.

The Scottsdale Scorpions (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Arizona, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Colorado

Daniel Moskos | LHP | Pittsburgh
The Scottsdale squad does not feature many truly interesting pitching names, although Moskos does stand out as a former No. 1 draft pick of the Pirates. The left-hander has had a disappointing pro career to this point, although you may enjoy the 3.84 ERA in double-A… but the ground-ball rate of 54.3% is more impressive. Moskos has been too hittable but with a better defense behind him, he should have a little better luck. The strikeout rate in the past three years has plummeted, which is troubling (9.24 to 6.36 to 4.20 K/9).

Buster Posey | C | San Francisco
Teams have become very conscious of service time, so it would not be a surprise to see Posey begin 2010 in triple-A. With that said, the bat and glove are both ready for the Majors. If possible, the best scenario would be for San Francisco to resign veteran Bengie Molina to split the catching duties with Posey next year. Whether Molina would accept that type of playing time remains to be seen. The Giants prospect should eventually become a very real (and much-needed) threat in the heart of the club’s lineup.

Wilin Rosario | C | Colorado
The Rockies organization was extremely aggressive with Rosario after his breakout 2008 season in short-season ball. He was jumped over low-A ball and the 20 year old spent the season in high-A. Not surprisingly, Rosario struggles in April and May before finding his footing over the next two months. Injuries then wiped out August so the Dominican native will be fresher than most of the catchers in the league.

Brandon Allen | 1B | Arizona
A busy year for Allen is only going to get busier. The first-base prospect has played for four teams already this year – including making his MLB debut with Arizona – and he’ll join his fifth club in the AFL. Currently in the Majors, Allen is holding his own and the 23 year old has a shot at being the Diamondbacks’ opening day first baseman in 2010.

Hector Gomez | SS | Colorado
Gomez is a very promising prospect, but the Rockies organization would no doubt like to see him spend a little more time on the field. After missing all but one game in 2008, the shortstop missed significant time in April and June of this year. Gomez is a good defensive player but he needs a lot more work on his approach at the plate, including his walk rate which was at 4.3% this year at high-A ball.

Domonic Brown | OF | Philadelphia
A two-sport prep star, Brown has quickly become quite the baseball player ever since he began focusing on the sport on a full-time basis. He has made himself into a five-tool player with the increase in power this season; his ISO increased from .126 in 2008 to .212 in ’09. Brown also has the ability to hit .300 and steal 20-30 bases in a full season.

Jose Tabata | OF | Pittsburgh
On the plus side, Tabata has shown the ability to hit for a consistently-high average despite playing at double-A and triple-A in 2009. On the downside, his power has yet to develop and he’s had trouble staying on the field due to injuries. His off-the-field lifestyle is also questionable, as is his actual age. Tabata, though, is showing signs of being ready to contribute in Pittsburgh by mid-2010 at the latest.

First base has been a sore spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks organization for quite some time – especially in terms of power productions – and 2009 has been no different. The position has seen a number of players attempt to secure the full-time job but no one has been able to provide even league-average offense. The road to first base is littered with players such as Chad Tracy, Josh Whitesell, and Tony Clark.

The organization will now give rookie Brandon Allen a shot at the job. The big, sturdy prospect was acquired from the Chicago White Sox back on July 7. The American League club received reliever Tony Pena in return. Allen is actually the second first-base prospect that the club has received from Chicago in the past 24 months. The Diamondbacks dealt outfielder Carlos Quentin to the White Sox on Dec. 3, 2007 in exchange for Chris Carter. Carter spent only 11 days in the organization, though, before he was flipped to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal. Still with the Athletics organization, Carter is currently hitting .335/.434/.570 with 65 extra-base hits and 98 RBI in 481 double-A at-bats at the age of 22.

It’s a shame that the Diamondbacks organization was unable to hold on to Carter, but Allen represents another intriguing first-base prospect. The 23-year-old was originally selected out of a Texas high school in the fifth round of the 2004 amateur draft. It took about three seasons for him to get his feet underneath him. His career began to take off with a solid low-A ball season in 2007. Allen then followed that up with a monster year that saw him slam 29 homers between high-A and double-A.

This year, Allen began the season back in double-A. Although his power numbers were supressed a bit in Birmingham (His ISO dropped from .200+ to .162), the slugger hit for a higher average, he trimmed about 6% off his K rate (to 19.5%) and he continued to take a healthy number of walks. Once traded to the Arizona organization, Allen’s power returned and he slammed 12 homers in 142 triple-A at-bats (.324 ISO). He also maintained his improved batting average and plate rates. Although the left-handed hitter has struggled against southpaws in the past, he hit .317 against them in the minors this season and did not embarrass himself last year, either.

Allen is bound to have some ups and downs throughout the final weeks of the 2009 season, but he represents the best in-house option at the first-base position in 2010. With a little patience, he could become an above-average power source for the club. The power output would be a welcomed sight, as the club has only had two seasons in which its first basemen topped 20 home runs in its 12-year history: 1998, Travis Lee (22 homers) and 2005, Tony Clark (30) and Chad Tracy (27), although the latter also spent 51 games in the outfield.

Kenny Williams just can’t help himself. The man loves hard-throwing, right-handed relievers and will pay through the nose in order to get them. We are talking about the same general manager who in recent history agreed to $30 million bucks worth of Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink, and now he pulls the trigger to get another strong armed reliever in Tony Pena, giving up a solid prospect in the process.

As many of you may recall, Pena once was a once a big story, and not for his arm, but for falsifying his information on his visa, going under the alias Adriano Rosario. When the truth of his real identity came to light, what also was revealed is that (surprise!) Pena was five years older than his reported age. In a flash, Pena went from an 18-year old whiz kid dominating the minors to something like Billy Madison throwing dodge-balls at hapless elementary school students.

That’s not to say Pena doesn’t have talent. In a nutshell, Pena throws hard. His average fastball velocity is 95-MPH, and he also features a hard slider and a changeup, both pitches have been effective offerings for him this year. For someone with stuff as good as Pena’s, it’s surprising he doesn’t strikeout more batters; he’s actually been rather average in that regard. (6.55 career K/9, 6.88 this season). Pena has better control than average and for someone who has pitched in a rather hitter-friendly park, he’s done a fine job of keeping the ball in the yard. He has a 4.24 ERA now, but much of that can be blamed on some bad BABIP breaks (.352). ZiPS pegs him to post a 3.53 FIP for the rest of the season. I can imagine that may change a tad due to the switch in leagues, but as far as ballparks he’s moving from one rough neighborhood to another.

The price for Pena is Brandon Allen. The 23 year old is a big, left-handed power hitter who positioned himself as either Jim Thome or Paul Konerko’s heir. The former prep linebacker was a fifth rounder out of high school in ’04, but struggled to make contact during his first three seasons in the minors. Allen has made strides over the past couple of seasons, and after being promoted to Double-A last year, he posted a nifty .290/.358/.614 line in 274 plate appearances. All told, between High-A and Double-A, he smacked 29 homers last year while cutting down his strikeout numbers and increasing his walk rate.

This year it seems Allen has traded power for contact. His average is up to .290 at Double-A and he’s striking out less than ever (19.5%), but his power has suffered (.162 ISO). Of course, he still has more time to work out the kinks. Chad Tracy has been just plain bad since coming back last year, so D-Bax fans hope Allen is the answer to the first base question for years to come. Allen does carry an air of uncertainty given his recent power decline and the struggles he experienced early in his career, but if all goes well, he profiles to be better than your run of the mill, everyday first baseman.

The Southsiders are only a couple of games behind Detroit and have won eight of their last ten games, so Kenny Williams is going for it, but in the wrong way. The Sox have plenty of needs, but fixing the bullpen is hardly one of them. Assuming Pena will slot behind Jenks, Thornton, Linebrink and Dotel, all Pena figures to add to the Sox is half a win. On the flip side, Dotel is a free agent at the end of the year, and Pena won’t be eligible for free agency until 2013, so I guess there is some foresight in this move, but it’s not like relievers of Pena’s ilk are hard to find. The Sox had hitting depth to spare given the presence of Tyler Flowers and Dayan Viciedo, so trading from that strength makes sense, but not for another bullpen arm.