Archive for Brandon Wood

Do Prospect Busts Ever Reach Their Potential?

The top prospect label is a form of baseball tenure. No matter if the player is deemed a bust, what once vaulted him to the top of prospect lists will continue to earn him big league opportunities.

Players aren’t considered to be the best of the best by prospect mavens unless their skills project extremely well at the major league level. When a player of this ilk fails, analysts can usually point to a specific flaw preventing his success. If a former top prospect is struggling to stick in the big leagues, many organizations will take a flier on the player to try their hand at solving his problems. If successful, a team can reap the rewards of a cheap and effective player. Otherwise, the investment was minimal, and the team can cut ties without any real risk.

This is why players like Lastings Milledge, Brandon Wood, and Jeff Francoeur will continue to get signed. In covering all three of these players over the last month, I got to thinking about how frequently these prospects-turned-busts turned things around at the major league level. Does it happen?

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Will Brandon Wood Figure Things Out?

The Angels designated Brandon Wood for assignment earlier this week. He will latch on elsewhere given his former status as a top-tier prospect, but whether the 26-year old infielder can translate minor league raking into big league success remains to be seen.

Many expected the world from Wood given his gaudy minor league numbers and his ability to ably handle the shortstop position. In five Triple-A seasons — and 1,437 plate appearances — Wood has hit .283/.350/.536. Even at a fraction of that slash line he would theoretically become one of the top offensive shortstops in the majors. However, his minor league numbers can be viewed two different ways.

On one hand, a slash line like that at the highest level of minor league play merits a legitimate shot in the majors. Not a week here or a month there, spread over several seasons, but a full and uninterrupted season. On the other hand, his struggles in limited major league action — a .168/.197/.259 line in 494 plate appearances — should not have been surprising given the frequency at which he struck out.

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Sophomores: The AL West

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the American League West division, which was home to quite a few interesting rookie names in 2008. Yesterday, we looked at the American League East and on Tuesday it was the AL Central.

Seattle Mariners

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Catcher Jeff Clement was in line to be the next big offensive-minded catcher in baseball. He was also an early possibility for the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2008, but a funny thing happened on the way to the Hall of Fame… Clement struggled with the bat, the organization made a stupid contract commitment to a veteran player at his position, and the club seemingly lost all confidence in him. Despite hitting well throughout his brief minor career and producing a .335/.455/.676 line in 48 triple-A games in 2008, the Mariners soured on Clement after he hit just .227/.295/.360 in his first taste of the Majors (66 games). In 2009, he’s started just 16 games at catcher at triple-A and 38 at designated hitter, because of a lingering knee problem and the organization’s obvious belief that his future is not behind the dish. Overall, Clement’s hitting .280/.352/.466 with seven homers. The left-handed hitter is batting just .219 versus southpaws (compared to .304 against right-handers).

The emphasis on outfield defense in Seattle has relegated Wladimir Balentien to the bench despite the fact he hit seven home runs in 71 games last season – oh, and he also hit just .202/.250/.342. Despite his obvious struggles with the bat and making contact (29.8 K% in the Majors), the organization has kept Balentien in the Majors for the entire 2009 season and he’s hitting just .218/.273/.336 with one home runs in 110 at-bats. The 24-year-old is out of options so the club is stuck between a rock and a hard place, but it’s not doing Balentien’s career any favors.

After a few abbreviated attempts at beginning his MLB career, Mark Lowe finally enjoyed a full season in the Majors in 2008 with modest results. He posted a 5.37 ERA (4.42 FIP) and allowed 78 hits in 63.2 innings of work. In 2009, he’s continued to show some improvements with a 3.90 ERA (3.92 FIP) and 32 hits allowed in 30 innings of work. His walk rate has improved from 4.81 to 3.90 BB/9 but his strikeout rate has also plummeted from 7.77 to 6.00 K/9.

Oakland Athletics

Outfielder Ryan Sweeney appeared in 115 games for the A’s in 2008 but he had a pretty hollow season with a line of .286/.350/.383. He didn’t show much power with just five home runs and he didn’t use his speed by stealing nine bases. Things are not getting much better for the 24-year-old in 2009 with a line of .246/.313/.319. Sweeney also has just two homers and four stolen bases. He won’t be playing full-time much longer with numbers like that.

Daric Barton was another disappointing rookie in 2008 from an organization that has a reputation (deservedly so or not) for producing productive Major League players. The catcher-turned-first-baseman had a minor league line of .299/.411/.455 and had always hit for average, although there were questions about the 23 year old’s power potential. In his rookie season in the Majors in ’08, Barton hit for neither power nor average with a line of .226/.327/.348 in 446 at-bats. The struggles may have affected him mentally as he’s hitting just .245/.365/.385 with three homers in 200 at-bats in 2009.

Sean Gallagher, 23, was obtained last season from the Cubs in the Rich Harden trade. Between the two clubs, he posted a 5.15 ERA (4.48 FIP) with 118 hits allowed in 115.1 innings of work. He also posted rates of 4.53 BB/9 and 8.04 K/9. He’s bounced between the Majors and the minors in 2009 with an 8.16 ERA in six MLB games and a 1.75 ERA in five triple-A starts. His batting-average-allowed has jumped from .266 to .342 over the past year.

Relievers Brad Ziegler and Joey Devine were godsends for the Oakland bullpen in 2008 but 2009 has been a different story, especially for Devine. The former Braves prospect finally harnessed his pitches – a 2.96 BB/9 in 2008 compared to more than one walk allowed per inning in his previous three big-league attempts – and posted an ERA of just 0.59 (1.97 FIP). He also allowed just 23 hits in 45.2 innings of work. Unfortunately, Devine blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this season. Ziegler rose from obscurity to save 11 games in 2008 for Oakland, while also posting a 1.06 ERA in 59.2 innings. This season the groundball pitcher has been good but not great, in part due to a BABIP jump from .246 to .351. Left-handers are also hitting .367 against him.

Texas Rangers

Chris Davis burst upon the scene last season as young player with immense power. He hit .285/.331/.549 with 17 homers and 23 doubles in 295 at-bats while playing mostly third base. Davis, 23, also posted a strikeout rate of 29.8 K%. Fast-forward one season and the left-handed batter is now playing first base and hitting just .204/.261/.422 with 12 home runs in 206 at-bats. His strikeout rate has jumped to a disturbing 45.6 K%. Davis has also lost 6% off his line-drive rate, which is down to 19.6%, and his BABIP has gone from .353 to .300.

Brandon Boggs, 26, was called upon to fill a part-time role in 2008. The outfielder hit just .226/.333/.399 but he appeared in 101 games. His strikeout rate was a dismal 32.9 K%. He did, though, show some power potential with an ISO of .173. Boggs has spent the majority of 2009 in triple-A where his power has all but dried up as he has an ISO rate of just .086. He’s also hitting just .278/.405/.364 in 162 at-bats. Another part-time player, infielder German Duran hit .231/.275/.350 with three home runs in 143 at-bats in the Majors in 2008. This season, he’s battled injuries and is hitting just .149/.185/.207 in 87 triple-A at-bats.

David Murphy’s rookie season was not as noisy as Davis’, but Murphy has had a much more consistent career to this point. The 27-year-old outfielder posted a line of .275/.321/.465 with 15 homers in 415 at-bats in 2008. He also posted a walk rate of 7.0% and a strikeout rate of 16.9 K%. In 2009, Murphy’s power has dropped and he’s hitting .259/.344/.393 with three homers in 135 at-bats (including .167 vs southpaws). He’s seen his walk rate increase to 11.8 BB%, while his strikeout rate has also risen to 24.4 K%, which is not good considering his drop in power production (ISO from .190 to .133).

A former Braves prospect, 23-year-old Matt Harrison had a rough introduction to the big leagues in his rookie season in 2008. He posted a 5.49 ERA (5.18 FIP) and allowed 100 hits in 83.2 innings of work. Harrison’s walk rate was 3.33 BB/9 but he struck out just 4.52 K/9. In 2009, the southpaw has posted a 5.43 ERA (4.68 FIP) in 54.2 innings and he’s allowed 68 hits. His walk rate is down to 2.63 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is just 4.77 K/9. Opponents also has a healthy 23.3 LD% against Harrison.

Los Angeles Angels

Infielders Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood are both loaded with potential but they have had difficulties breaking into everyday roles in the Majors. Rodriguez, 24, has good pop for a middle infielder (.300+ ISO in parts of two triple-A seasons), but he projects as a big league utility player due to his contact issues (33.2 K% in 205 triple-A at-bats in 2009). Wood, on the other hand, has massive power potential for an infielder but he too has contact issues (26.8 K% in 2008). With 69 home runs during parts of three seasons in triple-A, Wood, 24, needs to opportunity to finally show once and for all if he has what it takes to play everyday in the Majors. He hit just .200/.224/.327 in 55 MLB games in 2008.

Jose Arredondo had a very successful year in 2008 giving hope that he would one day fill the closer’s role that Francisco Rodriguez departed from after last season. In 2008, Arredondo went 10-2 with a 1.62 ERA while allowing just 42 hits in 61 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.25 BB/9 and 8.11 K/9. The right-hander, though, did not make in through the month of June in 2009 before being demoted to the minors after posting a 5.55 ERA and allowing 28 hits in 24.1 innings of work.


Promote Brandon? Wood If I Could…

As a ‘prospect watcher’ there is nothing more frustrating than standing by while a young player gets left to rot in the Minor Leagues when it’s clear that the player is ready for that next step.

Brandon Wood is a power-hitting infielder with the Los Angeles Angels and he has been considered one of the organization’s top prospects since he was drafted in the first round of the 2003 draft after being selected out of an Arizona high school. Originally a shortstop, Wood has also seen time at the hot corner.

It’s hard to believe Wood is only 23. It seems like he has been knocking on the big league door forever. After one half-season of Rookie Ball, Wood played in full-season ball for the first time at the age of 19 and held his own with a line of .251/.322/.404 in 478 at-bats.

Promoted to High-A ball the next season, Wood erupted for 51 doubles and 43 homers in 536 at-bats with a line of .321/.383/.672. The hype that followed was not fair; Wood was playing in Rancho Cucamonga, which is an excellent park for hitters. Yes, he is a good hitter, but he is not that good. Wood then hit 20-plus homers the next two seasons and was considered a disappointment even though he was almost ready for a cup of coffee in the Majors at the age of 21.

Now in his second full season of Triple-A, Wood is currently hitting .291/.355/.606 with 27 homers in 327 at-bats. That said, there are negatives to his game. Wood strikes out a lot (although the K% is on the decline from 32.9 to 27.5 to 26) and his defence is just OK. He has struggled in big league call-ups in both 2007 and 2008 for a combined line of .134/.160/.216 in 97 at-bats, but he also needs consistent playing time.

What is perhaps most perplexing is that the names of the players keeping Wood in the minors include Maicer Izturis, Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar and Robb Quinlan. All those players are Major Leaguers – and deservedly so – but none of them offer the kind of power and offensive upside that Wood does. Given that the Angels are ninth out of 14 American League teams in terms of homers and 10th in slugging percentage, they could use the added muscle.