Archive for brennan boesch

Sort among batters for swinging strike rate over the past three years, and (unsurprisingly) you’ll get a list that features most of the strikeout kings at the plate. Mark Reynolds (17.5% swinging strikes) and Ryan Howard (15.3%) obviously belong based on their respective career strikeout rates (38.7% and 32% respectively). But track a little further down the list and you’ll notice that a high swinging strike rate is not always a harbinger of a high strikeout rate.

You won’t have to go far. Even third place on the list, Josh Hamilton, has a decent strikeout rate (20.6%) despite his high swinging strike rate (13.7%). Delmon Young even pairs a better-than-average strikeout rate (18.6% career) with a top-ten worst swinging strike percentage (12.7%) over the last three years. Clearly, the tendency to swing and miss at offerings is not the sole determinant of a batter’s strikeout rate.

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General Manager: David Dombrowski
Farm Director: Glenn Ezell
Scouting Director: David Chadd

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This was a tough organization to rank. There is very little in the system in terms of impact talent, aside from a couple of 2009 amateur draft picks (Jacob Turner, Daniel Fields), but ’09 picks were omitted from consideration for the Top 10 list. Casey Crosby has a chance to be an impact talent, but he’s just in low-A ball. The club has a couple of interesting catching prospects in Alex Avila, and Dusty Ryan, who just missed making the Top 10 list. The system is getting better but it’s a slow process, especially when the big-league club is trying to win now.

1. Casey Crosby, LHP, low-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2007 5th round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Crosby is currently sandwiched in between Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner as the best young pitcher in the organization. He needs to keep developing if he’s going to avoid being surpassed by Turner in 2010. Crosby made just three appearances in his debut season in ’08 after being drafted in ’07 without making an appearance thanks to Tommy John surgery. That makes his numbers in ’09 all the more impressive. The walk rate of 4.13 BB/9 can be blamed partially on the long layoff. Beyond that, though, Cosby had few issues, as he posted a 2.80 FIP, 10.06 K/9 rate and allowed just three homers in 104.2 innings (0.26 HR/9). His 50+% ground-ball rate was nice, as was the line-drive rate of just 11.7%. There could be some concern with the huge increase in innings that Crosby pitched in ’09 compared to ’08 (4.2 IP) but he does have a big, strong frame.

2. Ryan Strieby, 1B, double-A
DOB: August 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 4th round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Injuries derailed his season, but Strieby still showed some improvements in ’09 over his ’08 season, with an excellent .445 wOBA in 86 double-A games. Overall, the first baseman hit .303/.427/.565 with a .262 ISO in 294 at-bats. His power will likely be muted somewhat by playing in Detroit, but his OPS has increased with each level he’s played at and his walk rate jumped from 9.9 to 16.2 BB% in the past year. On the down side, the strikeout rate was a little high, even for a power hitter, at 27.2 K%. Defensively, he saw time at both first base and left field, where his work left something to be desired. Strieby’s bat should be ready for the Majors in 2010, and he could see time at first base and designated hitter.

3. Alex Avila, C, Majors
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 5th round – University of Alabama
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Avila has shocked just about everyone with his quick development since turning pro in ’08. A fifth-rounder, he arrived in The Show in ’09 and promptly hit .279/.375/.590 in limited duty (61 ABs). He’s shown excellent patience in pro ball, including a walk rate of 13.6 BB% in double-A this past season. His strikeout rate was a little high at 23.4 K%, but he did post an ISO of .185. One knock on Avila is that he needs to improve against southpaws if he’s going to avoid the platoon; he hit just .216/.300/.392 against left-handers at double-A. Even if his batting average stays low in the .240-.260 range, Avila has value due to his patience at the plate and developing, left-handed power. He’s solid defensively and he threw out 44% of base stealers in double-A – but just 27% in the Majors.

4. Scott Sizemore, 2B, triple-A
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 5th round – Virginia Commonwealth University
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

He has yet to play in the Majors, but Sizemore is currently being considered for the everyday second base job in 2010, if incumbent Placido Polanco leaves via free agency, as expected. The keystone prospect rebounded from an injury-marred season in ’08 to hit .300-plus at both double-A and triple-A. At the lower level, Sizemore produced a triple-slash line of .307/.402/.535 in 228 at-bats. Then in triple-A, he hit .308/.378/.473 with an ISO of .164 in 292 at-bats. The right-handed hitter showed more power in ’09 than he has at any point in his career. He also has good patience at the plate with a career walk rate above 10%. Along with 15 homer potential, the 24-year-old prospect could steal 10-15 bases. Defensively, Sizemore will not come close to matching Polanco’s defensive value.

5. Wilkin Ramirez, OF, Majors
DOB: October 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Ramirez had a respectable season in triple-A in ’09, and he has an intriguing combination of speed (33 steals in 43 attempts) and power (.187 ISO). Quite possibly a future 20-20 guy if he gets the chance to play everyday, Ramirez likely won’t hit for a high average due to his high strikeout rates (32.9 K% in triple-A in ’09). The converted third baseman is also not a good fielder despite a strong arm that is good enough for right field; he’s stuck in left, thanks to poor routes and range. If the 24-year-old prospect can curb his whiffs and show a little more drive, he could develop into an above-average regular. Otherwise, he’ll likely never reach his full potential.

6. Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 10th round – Oklahoma State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball

One of the many ’08 college relievers drafted by the Tigers organization, Weinhardt is my personal favorite. The right-hander has done a respectable job of missing bats while showing solid control (save for double-A in ’09), and he’s also posted nice strikeout rates, including a rate of 11.27 K/9 in 67.0 high-A innings over two seasons (’08-’09). In close to 100 career innings, Weinhardt has allowed just three homers. He posted a line-drive rate of 12.9% in ’09. The right-hander showed his late-inning moxie by allowing a batting average of .160 with runners in scoring position and a LOB rate of 87%. He could very well be helping out the big-league bullpen by mid-2010; although his stuff is not as electric as Ryan Perry’s, Weinhardt is a better all-around pitcher at this point.

7. Cody Satterwhite, RHP, double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – University of Mississippi
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Satterwhite was one of the hard-throwing college relievers nabbed during the ’08 draft. The right-hander did not progress quite as well as hoped during his college career after demanding (and failing to get) big money coming out of high school. Command and control issues have always been a concern for Satterwhite, who posted a walk rate of 4.93 BB/9 at double-A in ’09. In 49.1 innings of work, he allowed 46 hits and posted a strikeout rate of 9.49 K/9. His ground-ball rate improved almost 10% over ’08 to 47%. Satterwhite did quite well against left-handed batters and held them to a .179 batting average, with a strikeout rate of 11.19 K/9. Because of his control issues, he’s probably going to top out as an eighth-inning guy if that doesn’t change.

8. Brennan Boesch, OF, double-A
DOB: April 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – University of California
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

The lack of overall depth in the system – especially amongst the bats – helps to move Boesch up the depth chart. You cannot argue with his power, as the left-handed hitter posted an ISO of .235 at double-A in ’09. At 6’6”, Boesch could simply be a late bloomer, as larger hitters tend to need extra time to learn to repeat their swings. However, his walk rate of 5.9 BB% leaves something to be desired; the highest OBP he’s posted in the past three seasons is .318, with the lowest being .297. Not the fleetest of foot, the outfielder has shown that he’s a pretty smart base runner after stealing 11 bases in 13 attempts this past year, as well as 15 of 19 in ’07. His career OPS of .654 against southpaws suggests that a platoon role is in Boesch’s MLB future.

9. Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Majors
DOB: July 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Figaro has posted some solid FIPs in the minors without rising above 3.86 in the past four seasons. In ’09, he allowed just 67 hits in 80 innings of work in double-A, while posting a 3.67 FIP. He also continued to show solid command with a walk rate of 2.59 BB/9 and his strikeout rate hit its highest mark in four years at 7.76 K/9. Promoted to the Majors, Figaro struggled by allowing 23 hits, and three homers (1.59 HR/9), in 17 innings of work. The right-hander struggled with his control and posted a walk rate of 5.29 BB/9 in the small sample size. The 24-year-old hurler does not have the biggest arm in the system, but he’s got more than enough to offer in the back end of the rotation as a fourth starter – especially if he can get his ground-ball rate back above 50%, where it was in ’06-’08. He also needs to improve his change-up against left-handed hitters (.331 vs .218 in double-A).

10. Luis Marte, RHP, triple-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Perhaps a bit of a controversial pick to appear on the Top 10 list, Marte has shown solid control in his career, including a 2.39 BB/9 rate in ’09 at double-A. He’s hit a bit of a wall the past two seasons in double-A but he’s also struggled with his health. At just 5’11”, the slight right-hander may be better suited to bullpen work to help ease some of the strain on his body. It could also help him since he struggles against left-handed hitters when he cannot command his change-up, which is his third-best pitch. Marte needs to work down in the zone more often, as well, and he allowed a home-run rate of 1.54 HR/9 in ’09. It will be interesting to see what the 23-year-old right-hander can do during a full healthy season.

Up Next: The Pittsburgh Pirates

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in batting average and home runs among the three double-A leagues: the Eastern League, the Southern League and the Texas League. You’ve probably heard a lot of these names before, but some of them are fairly new, so let’s see if they’re prospects or suspects.

The Eastern League
Batting Average
(.342) – Brock Bond | 2B | San Francisco

A former 24th round selection out of the University of Missouri, Bond doesn’t really hit with enough power to play everyday, especially with his poor instincts on the base paths; He’s been success stealing bases just 11 times in 24 attempts. With that said, the 23-year-old second base is leading the league in hitting and has a career batting average of .326. San Francisco should be proactive and begin getting him experience at other positions because he has the makings of an offensive-minded utility player.

(.338) – Josh Thole | C | New York (NL)

A converted catcher, Thole has improved enough behind the plate to be an average defensive catcher. Offensively, the left-handed prospect is a gifted hitter who walks more than he strikes out (1.32 BB/K) and hits for a high average. Thole does lack power in his bat, which limits his ceiling a little bit. However, you won’t find many left-handed hitting catchers in the Majors that can hit .300.

(.333) – Michael Taylor | OF | (Philadelphia)

Taylor has really turned himself into a prospect over the past two seasons. The Stanford grad is 6’6′ 250 pounds but he stolen 18 bases in 22 attempts, to go along with his excellent batting average and 15 home runs. Perhaps in an effort to showcase Taylor, Philadelphia promoted him to triple-A, where he’s now played four games. There are questions about how much of his power is usable, in-game power.

Home Runs
(19) – Brian Dopirak | 1B | Toronto

Rescued off the Cubs’ scrap heap, Dopirak has blossomed with a new swing and approach at the plate. He slugged 29 homers last season for the Toronto organization, while playing mainly in high-A. This season in double-A, Dopirak, 25, continued hitting well with the league lead in homers, as well as a .308 batting average. He’s now been promoted to triple-A, where he should enjoy hitting in the Pacific Coast League.

(17) – Ryan Strieby | 1B/LF | Detroit

Strieby may have hit the quietest 29 home runs in 2008. Taken in the fourth round in 2006 out of the University of Kentucky, the 23-year-old has slowly made himself into a top prospect with his combination of power and ability to hit for a respectable average (.310 in 2009).

(17) – Brennan Boesch | OF | Detroit

Taken a round earlier than Strieby and out of the University of California, Boesch’s first two full seasons in the minors were underwhelming. He’s having a breakout season in terms of power this year, although the batting average is suspect (.260) and he rarely walks (.300 OBP).

The Southern League
Batting Average
(.347) – Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati

Heisey has received a fair bit of attention this season for really turning himself into a legitimate big-league prospect. Drafted out of a small college in 2006, the 24-year-old outfielder showed an ability to hit for average and power, while also stealing 13 bases in 14 attempts. Heisey is now hitting .314 in 18 triple-A games.

(.328) – Desmond Jennings | OF | Tampa Bay

Despite missing almost all of 2008 due to an injury, Jennings is one of the hottest hitters in the minors. He’s screaming for a promotion to triple-A with a .485 batting average, 12 walks and seven stolen bases in his last 10 games. For the season, he’s nabbed 36 bases in 41 attempts.

(.317) – Darwin Barney | SS | Chicago (NL)

Selected in the fourth round of the 2007 draft out of the Oregon State University, Barney had a modest first full season in the Majors in 2008. Aggressively promoted to double-A in 2009, the infielder responded with a solid batting average. He doesn’t hit for power or steal bases, so Barney is probably a long-term utility player. He’s currently hitting .170 in 14 triple-A games.

Home Runs
(20) – Greg Halman | OF | Seattle

Halman has troubles hitting the broadside of a barn with the barrel of his bat (He has a strikeout rate of 41.8%), but when he makes contact that barn will have some serious hurt. Halman is loaded with athletic ability and tons of potential but it’s disappointing that Seattle has let him get to double-A with this approach at the plate (0.14 BB/K). He makes Russell Branyan look like Ichiro.

(17) – Stefan Gartrell | OF | Chicago (AL)

Three of the Top 7 home run hitters in the Southern League come from the same Birmingham squad but only catcher Tyler Flowers is a legitimate prospect. Gartrell, 25, has come a long way since being drafted out of the University of San Francisco in the 31st round as a senior in 2006. He’s repeating double-A after spending all of 2008 in Birmingham, as well.

(17) – David Cook | OF | Chicago (AL)

Cook has been kicking around the system since being drafted out of the University of Miami (Ohio) in 2003. Now 28, the outfielder is having a nice season while providing veteran leadership to the organization’s young prospects. He was recently promoted to triple-A.

The Texas League
Batting Average
(.358) – Jordan Parraz | OF | Royals

An astute pick-up out of the Astros system prior to the 2009 season, Parraz has broken out with the bat, especially in terms of average. The 24-year-old moved very slowly through the Astros system, despite being a former third-round pick with a lot of promise. His base running (33 steals in ’07) seems to have dried up with just four in 12 attempts this season. He’s probably a long-term fourth outfielder with a powerful arm, but he should be challenged with a promotion to triple-A.

(.353) – Adrian Cardenas | IF | Oakland

Cardenas’ season has had a fair number of ups and downs. The infielder had a nice beginning to his season in double-A before a quick promotion to triple-A. His struggles in the senior league led to a demotion back to double-A where he’s dominated the competition. The organization is obviously hesitant to send him back up, but he has little left to prove in double-A with the bat (defense is another story).

(.331) – Tyler Henley | OF | St. Louis

An eighth round selection out of Rice University in 2007, Henley has flown under the radar throughout his entire pro career. The left-handed hitter has a career line of .296/.362/.474 but he doesn’t hit for enough power to be a Major League regular.

Home Runs
(16) – Collin DeLome | OF | Houston

DeLome, a fifth round pick out of Lamar University, has exceeded expectations but he’s probably not going to make enough contact to be a regular big-league outfielder. His career batting average is .266 and he’s taken just 22 walks in 2009, compared to 86 Ks. Teams can always use left-handed power, though, so the 23-year-old could eventually work his way into a platoon situation in Houston.

(16) – Chad Tracy | 1B | Texas

Selected out of Pepperdine University in the third round of the 2006 draft, Tracy had a lot more value before moving from catcher to first base (and left field). Now, he projects to be a quad-A slugger, who could eek out a Ross Gload type of career.

(16) – Corey Smith | 1B | Kansas City

A former top prospect (and former first-round pick) of the Cleveland Indians, Smith just keeps plugging along in hopes of realizing his big-league dream. After hitting 26 homers in double-A for the Angels organization in 2008, Smith is tied for the league lead at the same level in 2009. He still doesn’t hit for average and he still doesn’t have much patience at the plate… but you have to applaud his perseverance.