Archive for brett lawrie

When the top 100 prospects in the game were ranked by Baseball America during the summer of 2010, Brett Lawrie was 26 spots ahead of Mike Trout. Both received a large cup of coffee in the majors during 2011 – Lawrie produced 2.6 WAR in just 46 games, while Trout put up 0.7 WAR in 40 – and there was a lot of optimism that we were witnessing two stars in the making: these were the athletic, ultra-talented position players of the future for two franchises.

Four years have passed since those brief debuts, and we know the history of both players has been quite different: Trout has produced a stunning 37.8 WAR, establishing himself as a perennial candidate for best player in baseball, while Lawrie has produced 6.2 WAR in a series of injury-interrupted, slightly above average seasons.

Being compared to Trout is unfair for basically every player in the game, but the point is this: early success doesn’t always mean continued success, mostly because baseball is about how well you adjust, not necessarily how much raw talent you have. A lot can change in the course of four seasons, especially when we’re trying to evaluate young players.

Because of the content of the four years since his debut, we view Lawrie through a certain lens: he was a top prospect, but he’s not a top major-leaguer. He’s had his chance, the thinking goes, and this is what he’s done with it. Major-league baseball is a boiling hot cauldron into which young men are thrown, and they either develop sufficiently thick skin to handle the heat or they don’t. It’s been over four seasons, and this is who he is.

Something complicates that viewpoint, however, and it’s that Lawrie will have just turned 26 when Opening Day rolls around in 2016. It might seem like he’s been around a long time, but he’s still young, and youthful players who were once top prospects are given a longer leash to figure things out. Now, after two separate opportunities to put everything together, Lawrie is headed from Oakland to the south side of Chicago in return for two relief pitchers, Zack Erwin and J.B. Wendelken.

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Leave it to Fangraphs readers to supply thought-provoking questions worthy of an entire post. After last week’s prospect chat, reader “GrittleTooth” belted a grand slam in the comments area with this gem:

I get that age is very important when evaluating prospects, but isn’t it also true that guys develop at different speeds and some ‘get it’ latter than others? What I’m getting at is that when you compare, for example, Collin Cowgill & Brett Lawrie the numbers they put up in the PCL last year were rather similar (.442 vs .460 wOBA over roughly same # PA’s in same league). Yes, Lawrie is 4 years younger, more highly regarded, and plays a different position. But how can you argue with the lesser prospect’s numbers?

Two-hundred words into a response, I realized this would make for an excellent post topic on age-versus-level and how that effects player projection at the major league level – especially given the statistics for both Brett Lawrie and Collin Cowgill were eerily similar in the same league.

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General Manager: Doug Melvin
Farm Director: Reid Nichols
Scouting Director: Bruce Seid

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The organization has three nice hitting prospects right at the top of the system – and all three are not that far away from helping out Milwaukee. In fact, both Escobar and Gamel could break camp with the big club in 2010. There are some arms on the Top 10, as well, but the majority of them are in A-ball and their ceilings are modest (No. 3-4 starters).

1. Alcides Escobar, SS, Majors
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Escobar’s rookie status survived the ’09 season as he fell one at-bat short of being ineligible for the 2010 Rookie of the Year award. As it stands, he projects to be one of the better impact rookies in the year ahead, thanks to his solid bat and defensive skills at shortstop. This past season, Escobar hit .304/.333/.368 in 125 at-bats. He’s shown the ability to hit for a high average in the minors, but he sacrifices power and he posted an ISO of just .064 at the MLB level. The Venezuela native does have a fair bit of speed and he nabbed 42 bases in 52 attempts in 109 triple-A games in ’09 prior to his promotion. Escobar does need to be more patient at the plate, as he walked just 3.1% of the time in his debut, and his 6.9% at triple-A was his highest mark in four years. The trade of incumbent shortstop J.J. Hardy has cleared the way for Escobar to play everyday in 2010. He won’t provide the power that Hardy did, but the 23-year-old infielder will add an exciting element on the base paths.

2. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Double-A
DOB: January 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – British Columbia (Canada) HS
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The club’s top pick from the ’08 draft, Lawrie has flashed a potent bat but serious questions remain about his defensive home. The club originally wanted to move the Canadian behind the plate, but he changed his mind and ended up back at second base, where his defense was not pretty. He’s not a big guy (5’11’) but Lawrie possesses some pop in his bat, as witnessed by his .180 ISO in his debut season of ’09. Despite not playing in his draft season (due to contract negotiations), Lawrie reached double-A in ’09 at the age of 19. At low-A ball, where he spent the majority of his season, the right-handed hitter batted .274/.348/.454 (.308 BABIP) in 423 plate appearances. He also stole 19 bases but was caught 11 times. If he can clean up his base running, Lawrie could develop into a 20-20 player.

3. Mat Gamel, 3B, Majors
DOB: July 1985 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – Chipola Junior College
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

The club had hoped for more from Gamel in ’09. Given a shot at everyday duty in the Majors, the third baseman hit just .242/.338/.422 in 148 plate appearances. He did show some pop with an ISO of .180, and he also did a nice job of getting on base with a walk rate of 12.3%. He had a lot of trouble making contact though, and posted an alarming whiff rate of 42.2%. In 75 triple-A games, Gamel struck out at a rate of 32.6%. He definitely needs to make more contact, especially considering that his power potential is good, not great. A high BABIP in the Majors of .377 helped to keep Gamel’s triple-slash line respectable. For a guy who was supposed to be near-MLB-ready in ’09, he still has a fair bit of work to do (His contact rate was 14% below the league average)… and we haven’t even discussed his defense, which is below-average at third base (although his range is not bad).

4. Zach Braddock, LHP, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 18th round – Burlington County College
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A former starter, Braddock moved to the bullpen in 2009 due to durability and injury concerns. Although his overall value takes a bit of a hit from the move, the southpaw thrived in the new role and posted some video-game-like numbers. With a FIP of 1.74 in 24.2 innings in high-A, Braddock then moved up to double-A where his FIP was 2.82. His strikeout rate at high-A was an eye-popping 14.59 K/9 and it remained strong in double-A at 12.64 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.50 on the year. Normally strong against left-handed batters (.174 average, 11.54 K/9 in his career), Braddock was even better against right-handers in ’09 and held them to a .178 average with a strikeout rate of 14.73 K/9. On the downside, his 36.3% ground-ball rate needs to rise a bit to help with the gopher balls (1.15 HR/9 in double-A). Braddock isn’t overpowering, but he has a solid fastball-slider combo and good deception.

5. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Double-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – U of Louisiana-Lafayette
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A catching prospect with a solid offensive reputation, Lucroy had a nice year in ’09 despite suffering from a low BABIP at .299. Overall, his triple-slash line was .267/.380/.418 in 506 plate appearances. His BB/K rate of 1.18 (15.7 BB%) helped to offset the low batting average, and Lucroy also showed gap power with an ISO of .150 and 32 doubles. Defensively, he did a nice job of throwing out base runners (40%) but he’s still working on his receiving skills. The right-handed hitter has a good shot at being the club’s long-term answer behind the plate. The acquisitions of Gregg Zaun and George Kottaras will buy Lucroy some more development time.

6. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Rookie
DOB: March 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

One of the more advanced prep arms in the ’08 draft, the organization has been cautious with Odorizzi and he has spent the past two seasons in rookie ball. He had a solid year in ’09 by showing good control (1.72 BB/9) and the ability to miss his fair share of bats (8.23 K/9). He allowed a few too many hits – 55 in 47.0 innings – but he was hurt by a .367 BABIP. He did not get a lot of breaks in the field, either, and his ERA of 4.40 was much higher than his FIP of 2.90. Odorizzi should move up to low-A in 2010 and he has the ceiling of a solid No. 3 starter.

7. Cody Scarpetta, RHP, Low-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 11th round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

An ’08 draft pick, Scarpetta has posted solid minor-league numbers and he had a nice year in low-A ball. The right-hander allowed just 83 hits in 105 innings, while also posting a strikeout rate of 9.94 K/9. He needs to polish his control, though, as he had a walk rate of 4.71 BB/9. Scarpetta performed particularly well against left-handed hitters, who managed a batting average of just .197. He did struggle with his control in those situations, though, and posted a walk rate of 5.32 BB/9. The right-hander is raw, but he has the potential to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter down the road.

8. Evan Anundsen, RHP, High-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 4th round – Colorado HS
MLB ETA: Late 2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, cutter, curveball, change-up

Anundsen is not flashy, but he gets the job done. The right-hander has a fringe-average fastball but he gets good sink on his pitches and he posted a ground-ball rate of 52% in ’09. In his first three seasons, he averaged a ground-ball rate around 60%, which is well above average. Anundsen, 22, allowed just 101 hits in 130.1 high-A innings in ’09 and he showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.83 BB/9. His strikeout rate was a career high of 8.15 K/9 and he allowed just two homers. Anundsen was aided by a low BABIP of .284. If he can maintain a healthy ground-ball rate in the upper minors, along with his good control, the Colorado native should make a nice No. 3 or 4 starter for the Brewers.

9. Wily Peralta, RHP, Low-A
DOB: May 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Peralta’s career has been slowed by injuries (Tommy John surgery caused him to miss all of ’07) but he’s still young and he posted solid numbers in ’09. The hard-throwing right-hander has a good fastball-slider combo, which allowed him to post a strikeout rate of 10.24 K/9 at low-A ball. He also allowed just 91 hits in 103.2 innings of work and did a nice job of keeping the ball in the yard with just five homers allowed (0.43 HR/9), thanks to a respectable ground-ball rate of 46%. The right-hander projects as a late-game reliever, but he made 15 starts in ’09, mainly to help him get added experience. Peralta is still working on his control/command and he posted a walk rate of 3.99 BB/9.

10. Angel Salome, C, Triple-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 5th round – New York HS
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Salome lost his title of “Catcher of the Future” to Lucroy in ’09, but he still has a lot of potential. The catcher hit a solid .286/.334/.413 at triple-A but he hasn’t played more than 101 games in the past three seasons. At just 5’7”, durability has been a long-standing concern at Salome is probably a back-up catcher at the MLB level, if he wants to avoid the DL. Despite his size, the catcher has shown solid pop in the past, although he’s likely to provide more gap power at the MLB level. He’s a .300 minor league hitter, but he’s been helped by very high BABIPs, which is unusual for catchers. Defensively, Salome has a strong arm and he threw out 30% of base runners in ’09.

Up Next: The Houston Astros

2008 Draft Slot: 16th overall
Top Pick: Brett Lawrie, 2B, British Columbia (Canada) high school
Best Pick: Brett Lawrie
Keep an Eye On: Logan Schafer, OF, Cal Poly State University (3rd round)
Notes: Logan Schafer, a gifted defender, is making huge strides offensively despite being quickly promoted to high-A to begin 2009. He’s hitting more than .300 and he’s trimmed his strikeout rate by 10%. The walk rate, though, is too low at about 4%. Brett Lawrie has looked good at the plate for such a young player – and given his inexperience as a Canadian product. His move from catcher to second base, though, hurts his value a bit, especially considering his defense at the keystone is… not good.

Bonus: Here is my pre-2008 draft interview with Brett Lawrie.

2007 Draft Slot: Seventh overall
Top Pick: Matt LaPorta, OF/1B, University of Florida
Best Pick: Matt LaPorta
Worst Pick: Dan Merklinger, LHP, Seton Hall (6th round)
Notes: Remember when Seton Hall was a powerhouse school? Dan Merklinger has struggled with staying healthy and throwing strikes. But it’s not a bad draft when your worst pick (which isn’t that bad) doesn’t occur until the sixth round. Matt LaPorta was a valuable pick because it helped the club get C.C. Sabathia from the Indians for the playoff race in 2008. The club lacked a second-round pick, but it found value in the third round with Jonathan Lucroy, who is now in double-A.

2006 Draft Slot: 16th overall
Top Pick: Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Virginia high school
Best Pick: Jeremy Jeffress
Worst Pick: Brent Brewer, IF, Georgia high school (2nd round)
Notes: Brent Brewer would be a great marketing tool for the Brewers, but the bat just does not look like its going to play above A-ball. Jeremy Jeffress is still one of the most talented players in the draft but he’s painfully inconsistent and there are questions regarding his maturity and dedication, as well. Cole Gillespie (3rd round) and Lee Haydel (19th round) both appear to have the potential to make the Majors as fourth outfielders, if not more.

2009 Draft Slot: 26th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Best available player, college or prep
MLB Club Need: Second base, Catcher, Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Right field, Second base, First base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Center field, Catcher
Notes: The Brewers organization does not pick until the back end of the first round in 2009, but the club also has two supplemental first round picks for losing pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Brian Shouse to free agency. The club also has an extra second-round pick for Sabathia (It would have been a first-rounder if the Yanks hadn’t signed Mark Teixeira too).