Archive for Brett Myers

As the trade deadline approached this month, the Chicago White Sox desperately needed to upgrade their bullpen. Their cumulative 4.17 FIP ranks second worst in the American League, and their 3.99 ERA ranks only marginally better.

GM Kenny Williams looked to perhaps the only self-identified “seller” on the current market, the Houston Astros, for help. The White Sox acquired right-hander Brett Myers for minor-league pitchers Matthew Heidenreich and Blair Walters, as well as a player to be named later.

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The Houston Astros are far from the worst team in baseball this season, but their ability to seriously contend in the near future is largely based upon the rebuilding effort that was fully implemented the moment Jeff Luhnow took over. Luhnow inherited a team with a poor farm system — ranked #27 by Marc Hulet — that was high on right-handed pitching and nearly devoid of high-ceiling bats.

He also walked into a sub-par major league situation, with a strange mix of pricey veterans and underwhelming youngsters. There were bright spots in both the major and minor leagues, but Luhnow took the job knowing very well that the organization was more than a mere move or two away from turning things around.

Luckily, he brought with him a strong reputation for building from within. The Astros finally started the rebuilding process last season under Ed Wade by trading Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence, and entered this past offseason with long-term goals that took precedent over short-term — and short-lived — success.

The organization was interested in a solution, not a band-aid, and ownership seemed more than willing to experience losing seasons if management did everything in its power to essentially hit the reset button. With one-third of the season in the books, the Astros are getting closer to the point where decisions need to be made and actions taken with respect to several rostered players whose departures could aid and potentially expedite the rebuilding process.

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It’s too early to worry. It’s only one outing, right? Right?

But when three of baseball’s premier strikeout pitchers combine for just one punchout in games on Friday, well, it’s interesting. And exceptionally rare–especially for these guys.

Entering 2011, Jon Lester had made 123 starts in his career, with his only K-less appearance coming on April 9, 2008. In that game he lasted 5 1/3 frames, allowing four hits and four runs to go along with four walks. Brett Myers had made 216 career starts and never left a game sans strikeout while lasting at least five frames. Ubaldo Jimenez had started 116 games, whiffing one or fewer batters in at least five innings on just two occasions: September 20, 2007 (6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 1 K), and May 21, 2008 (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K).

On Friday, neither Lester nor Myers recorded a strikeout, and Jimenez fanned only one batter. In fact, Myers recorded only one missed swing. In a total of 18 1/3 innings, this trio managed fewer strikeouts than Ryan Madson did in his one inning of work.

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In the event that you haven’t heard, the Houston Astros have gone and signed Brett Myers. The deal itself — one-year, $5 million with an option for 2011 — seems entirely reasonable to my semi-trained eye. As our man on the scene David Golebiewski notes, Myers has chronically underperformed his xFIPs, a fact almost wholly attributable to an inflated rate of home runs per fly ball, a fact itself that is likely attributable to Citizens Bank Park. Translation: Provided that he’s healthy — which isn’t a guarantee given his injury problems last year — but given that he’s healthy, Brett Myers figures to post a better ERA than we’ve seen from him in a while.

Here’s the thing, though: the signing of Myers gives the Astros six starters. Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, and Myers himself are likely candidates to fill the first three spots in rotation. Which, that leaves Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, and Brian Moehler to compete for the last two.

For a number of reasons, those two spots should go to Norris and Paulino. It’s not just that Norris (4.38 xFIP, 4.25 tERA*) and Paulino (4.10 xFIP, 4.07 tERA*) are likely better than Moehler (4.67 xFIP, 4.49 tERA*), but also that, if Houston has any sense of building for the future, it would make a priority of developing the two young pitchers with upside. Brian Moehler is the absolute knownest of the known quantities. It’s not a terrible quantity, but it’s no great shakes, either.

I’m worried, though. I’m worried that the Astros will somehow see fit to go with Moehler. Yes, there’s a chance that they’re creating the illusion of a competition so’s to prevent their young starters from becoming complacent, but I’m worried that’s not the case. I’m worried they like Brian Moehler. I’m worried he’ll be their fifth starter heading into the season.

Here’s how I’ll feel if such a thing were to happen: sad. Not joking-around sad, but legitimately sad. Way sadder than at the end of a Lars von Trier movie, for example. And while I recognize that may sound melodramatic, I should note that I’m not the sort of person who’s otherwise prone to strong emotion. But I care about baseball, and I look to baseball to provide ethical cues for my life. And it frequently does that. Jack Zduriencik? Yes. Andrew Friedman? Yes, awesome. Brian Myrow? Right on. But this particular move — should it occur — will only reinforce for me that people in charge are fallible to a greater degree than I’d care to acknowledge.

Of course, there’ll be ways to deal with it. As Matt Klaassen showed us on Friday, the power of snark is mighty. (I mean, seriously, that post is brilliant.) Fire Joe Morgan raised snark to the level of high art. But snark isn’t an end in itself. It’s merely one way of coping with flagrant injustice or misbehavior. Snark is the mode to which we resort when we are powerless to protest in any other way. It’s fun, sure, but it’s not ideal. Ideally, men in charge — that is, men whose acts are conspicuous and, for better or worse, provide a model for the rest of us — make decisions using the faculty of reason. Ideally, the Astros make Brian Moehler their long reliever. The alternative will be disappointing.

First off, this post will not discuss anything involving CC Sabathia’s statistics in the playoffs this or last year. Unlike mainstream media outlets, I do not care about the sample size of five games started–1 in 2001, 3 last year, and 1 this year–and I am not automatically going to jump on the his-arm-was-tired-from-so-many-games-on-3-days-rest bandwagon. Is it possible? Sure, but I’m not fully convinced and am not going to make a leap just to sound like I have a concrete opinion on the matter. If I don’t, I’m not going to lie. Instead, what I want to discuss from yesterday’s Phillies-Brewers game is Brett Myers… and I don’t even mean his pitching.

No, I want to discuss Brett Myers‘ plate appearances against Sabathia yesterday, since they resulted in about 1/5 of Sabathia’s total pitches thrown. First, some context!

In the bottom of the second, with the Brewers leading 1-0, CC retired Pat Burrell before Jayson Werth hit a double to left-center. Pedro Feliz then stepped up to bat, and I, along with several other sports bar patrons all spoke of how Sabathia should just throw slider after slider to Feliz, since he really struggles with anything other than fastballs. Hmm, sounds like another Pedro–5 points to whomever guesses which one! Sure enough, CC hung a changeup and Feliz doubled in Werth to tie the game 1-1. Carlos Ruiz then grounded out, advancing Feliz to third base, but making the second out, meaning that it was very unlikely the Phillies would take the lead. After all, Brett Myers, one of the worst hitting pitchers in baseball, was up, with two outs, against one of the best pitchers of the last five years.

What ensued was a shocking nine pitch plate appearance in which Myers not only fouled pitches off, but managed to lay off of some extremely close ones. Sabathia looked visibly frustrated and eventually walked Myers. He then walked Jimmy Rollins before Shane Victorino hit the grand slam. While Victorino will get most of the credit for the Phillies win, I would definitely adjust the WPA of this game to give more credit to Myers, since his plate appearance had an extremely unlikely result and allowed the inning to extend, which in turn allowed Victorino to hit the grand slam.

The Phillies led 5-1 and Myers was cruising. In the fourth inning, Sabathia and Myers met again, this time for an epic 10-pitch at bat in which Myers eventually flew out to centerfield. Once again, he laid off and fouled off pitchess. And it wasn’t as if CC just threw fastballs: each time he pretty much reached back and gave Myers everything in his repertoire. If the Brewers win the next two games, it will set up a likely Sabathia-Hamels matchup in Philadelphia, where CC can look for some redemption. He was wild yesterday, and frustrated at his supposed inability to retire one of the worst hitting pitchers in the game, but this is not CC Sabathia. Brett Myers may get credited with a pitching win and a solid line on the mound, but his time at the plate really helped change this game as well.

The Chicago Cubs are going to win the NL Central en route to their second straight playoff appearance. They have been firing on all cylinders virtually all year and bolstered an already solid rotation by adding Rich Harden, who has been nothing short of fantastic since joining the team. The Philadelphia Phillies, with just six games to go, a 1.5 game lead on the Mets and a 3.0 game lead on the Brewers, look like they very well may be heading to Dane Cook October baseball for the second straight season. Two key players in this regard are Carlos Zambrano and Brett Myers, big pitchers with plus arms who could largely determine the fates of their respective teams.

Each has had a very interesting week, however. Zambrano tossed a no-hitter against the Astros, at Miller Park (not the home park of either the Cubs or Astros), posting the following line: 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. And no, nobody in the Cubs front office decided to protest the ball four in the hopes that their appeal would result in a perfect game. How did he follow that act? Well, against the Cardinals, Big Z went just 1.2 innings, surrendering 6 hits and 8 earned runs, while walking 3 and striking out just 1 hitter. Talk about opposite extremes. When put together, Zambrano had a two-game stretch of 10.2 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, and 11 K, which results in a 6.75 ERA. No way anyone would, without knowing, guess that the above line divides into a no-hitter and, well, an all-hitter.

Since his callup, Brett Myers has been brilliant for the Phillies, one of the major reasons they have stayed alive and taken the division and/or wild card lead, however you choose to look at it. From August 9 to September 14, Myers made 8 starts, compiling this line: 62 IP, 52 H, 11 ER, 11 BB, 62 K, good for a 1.60 ERA. The last start in that span, on September 14, Myers tossed a complete game against the Brewers, going 9 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. How did he follow that masterpiece up? Well, he took on the fiesty fish from Florida on Friday night and promptly posted this line: 4 IP, 9 H, 10 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. His ERA actually rose from 4.06 to 4.46. His two-game stretch? 13 IP, 11 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, a 7.62 ERA. After giving up 11 ER in 8 starts, he managed to give up 10 in one outing.

Interestingly enough for Zambrano, he is a repeat “offender.” On July 29, in Milwaukee, he pitched a five-hit shutout with nine strikeouts. Two starts later against the Cardinals he surrendered 9 ER and 10 hits. On August 21, against the Reds, he gave up one run over seven innings of work. His next start, in Pittsburgh, 8 hits and 6 runs in 4.1 innings. All of this seems very Jeff Weaver. Make no mistake, both Z and Myers are tantamount to their team’s success, but it is rather strange how pitchers so good can look so very bad, and ironic how these awful outings followed tremendous ones.

Back towards the end of June, when the Phillies decided to send struggling starter Brett Myers to the minor leagues, I voiced my disgruntled opinion at the way they had mishandled his situation on more than one occasion. Turning him into a reliever after just three starts last year was terrible for his long-term success and then reversing the move this year, to me at least, spelled problems from the get-go. Based on his true talent level there simply was no way he could sustain the terrible performance witnessed up to that point and, since his recall, he has been very good.

Much has been discussed about his home runs allowed, and many attempts have been made, by myself included, to determine the cause of his struggles. My looks at his Pitch F/X data showed that he was throwing with less velocity on his fastball, in poor locations, with slightly less movement in certain circumstances.

A straighter 88-89 mph fastball located right around the middle of the plate isn’t exactly going to get guys out. Additionally, Myers did not change his approach; he stuck with the approach of the 93-94 mph guy he used to be and this hurt him. The slower your velocity is, the more careful you need to be with other aspects of pitching, such as sequencing and location.

Since rejoining the big league team, from July 23 until last night, he has put up some great numbers. In 6 starts, he has gone 41.2 innings, surrendering just 30 hits while giving up 9 earned runs. On top of that, he has walked just 10 hitters to go with his 32 strikeouts. His home runs? 2 in this 41.2 inning span, compared to 24 in his previous 101.2 innings.

Here are the starts, broken down:

7/23 @ NYM: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 2 K
7/29 @ Was: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
8/3 @ StL: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
8/9 vs. Pit: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
8/14 @ LAD: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
8/20 vs. Was: 9 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Prior to July 23, he had a WPA of -2.52. Since then, he has contributed 0.933 wins in six starts, lowering his seasonal mar to -1.59. His numbers for the entire season likely won’t turn out as well as he hoped, but if he pitches like this, you would be hard pressed to show me a team that wouldn’t love his services. And, more importantly, if he can sustain some semblance of this performance for the duration of the season, he could prove to be a huge factor in helping the Phillies make the playoffs.

In case you have not yet heard, the Phillies optioned struggling starter Brett Myers to Triple-A Lehigh Valley yesterday. The move followed a very disappointing more-than-start to this season in which expectations were quite high. In light of this development I decided to take off my unbiased analyst cap and discuss this from my perspective as a Phillies fan. Quite simply, in terms as layman as layman can get, I think this is stupid. I feel the Phillies have completely mishandled Brett Myers since signing his three-year/25-million dollar deal following the 2006 season.

This wouldn’t even be the first time they have mishandled a player in the last few years either, as both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were brought to the bigs later than they should have been. As it stands, both of these stars are currently approaching 30, rather then the perhaps 26-28 mark fans might expect given their service time. With Myers, however, it all started last year, with his shift to the bullpen. In 2005 and 2006 he posted the numbers below, more than proving he was a well above average major league starter:

2005: 3.72 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 215.1 IP, 68 BB, 208 K, 3.06 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP, .289 BABIP
2006: 3.91 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 198.0 IP, 63 BB, 189 K, 3.00 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP, .309 BABIP

He got off to a bad start last year, when, in 15.1 innings he allowed 16 earned runs to the tune of a 9.39 ERA. The strikeouts were still there at 19 but he had surrendered 5 home runs and walked 9 batters. Unfortunately, with Tom Gordon’s injury, the Phillies panicked and moved Myers to the bullpen. While there he actually performed quite well: 53.1 IP, 46 H, 17 ER, 4 HR, 18 BB, 74 K, 2.87 ERA. Despite the relative success this was a terrible move for Myers in the long term considering what he had proven himself capable of and how quickly the move was made; a drastic move like this should not be done after just three starts.

Myers then fell in love with the bullpen, where he could really let loose and throw his plus-fastball without having to pace himself. A combination of adapting to this new hard-throwing environment and perhaps being used too much resulted in an injury last May. Upon his return he continued his success and his love for the crucial moments grew, almost becoming addictive to Myers. It came as no surprise, then, that he did not welcome a move back to the rotation this season with open arms. In acquiring Brad Lidge the Phillies found a closer and could move Myers back to the rotation, where he truly belonged. Never one to shy away from his feelings he admitted how much he enjoyed the bullpen and his hesitancy to become a starter again. In fact, I can recall working in the television truck with my father during a Ricky Bottalico rehab start a while back in which Myers verbally expressed anger at Bottalico pitching the first couple of innings, delaying his (Myers) start to the game.

To show Myers how committed they were to him as a starter they even handed him the ball on opening day. He has not come close to expectations this year, posting a 5.84 ERA/5.71 FIP, 1.56 WHIP, and a league high 24 home runs surrendered. His K/BB has dropped to 2.00 as well. Plenty of us analysts have attempted to deduce the reasoning behind his struggles, finding that he has lost velocity and has struggled with location, but the Phillies are 4-13 in his starts (1-11 in his last 12) and his 3-9 W-L record is actually very indicative of his performance level so far.

The Phillies again found themselves in a Myers dilemma because he was hurting more than he was helping but another move to the bullpen could perhaps typecast him in that role. Essentially, because they miffed a decision last year, it is truly coming to haunt them this season. Perhaps a move to the minors can fix his mechanics or whatever the actual cause of his struggles is, but if Myers cannot rebound from said struggles, the blame from this Phillies fan goes towards their management for truly mishandling the situation. I personally felt the solution posed by Mitch Williams was better than a minor league demotion: lock him in a room somewhere or leave him in an empty clubhouse and just let the hot-headed guy go crazy, breaking things, and hope he gets that bulldog mentality back. The club went the other way and I am not too optimistic. I surely hope I am wrong though.

For a few years running Phillies pitcher Brett Myers has entered the season with the “he could (insert positive breakout pitching feat)” analysis seemingly attached to his hip. Following stellar seasons in 2005 and 2006, he was moved into the closers role last year when Tom Gordon went down with an injury. As a closer he was essentially lights out, though he himself also missed time with an injury. The Brad Lidge acquisition pushed Myers back into his regular role as a starter and, suffice it to say, he has not lived up to expectations so far.

In looking at his numbers I found that he has some pretty significant splits. Below are his overall numbers on the season, followed by his splits against lefty and righty hitters:

Overall: 8 GS, 49.0 IP, 15 BB, 42 K, 5.33 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 1.47 WHIP

LHH: 87 PA, 10 BB, 21 K, .227/.314/.480
RHH: 132 PA, 5 BB, 21 K, .325/.359/.569

Righties have hit him harder and more often. Another area of significance is his Home/Away splits, where he has pitched an equal amount of times:

Home: 4 GS, 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27 IP, 6 BB, 25 K
Away: 4 GS, 0-3, 8.18 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 22 IP, 9 BB, 17 K

Here are his Home/Away splits against batters faced:

Home: 109 PA, 5 HR, .210/.266/.390
Away: 110 PA, 7 HR, .367/.417/.634

Myers is pitching very well at home yet struggling on the road, which defies conventional wisdom in the sense that his home park is arguably the most hitter-friendly in the entire National League. In looking at his starts on the road, though, he has pitched in Arizona, Colorado, and Cincinnati; three stadiums also known for their hitting prowess.

He has also struggled when a runner gets on first base, a problem that in part led to the minor league demotion of Dave Bush:

Nobody On: .269/.320/.538
On First: .367/.387/.767

Batters have performed better against him early in the game than later, as evidenced by the numbers against the first and second times through the batting order:

1st: .329/.373/.557
2nd: .266/.319/.469

Myers recently stated that he attributes his struggles to lost velocity on his fastball. A quick check of the wonderful data here at Fangraphs shows that, in 2005 and 2006, his fastball averaged between 91 and 93 miles per hour; it is currently averaging 89 mph. The decrease in velocity may or may not be a direct cause of his inconsistency this season, but his career splits are nowhere near as drastic in these areas as they are right now; in fact, the times through the order numbers are actually reversed in his career splits as the first time through generally struggles while the second and third time through tends to do better.

Regardless, something is going on that needs fixing, whether it be his selection or sequencing, because whatever he is currently doing has not worked. If this keeps up, he could enter next season as a disappointment rather than a potential breakout candidate.