Archive for brett wallace

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Farm Director: Tony LaCava
Scouting Director: Andrew Tinnish

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This is a tough system to rank beyond the Top 3 because the organization had such a down year in ’09 with a lot of prospects (hopefully temporarily) wiping out. On the plus side, there are quite a few talented players who are one good season away from shooting up the depth chart. The loss of Roy Halladay was a huge blow to the organization, as well as baseball in Canada, but the trade did infuse some much-needed talent.

1. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Triple-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Arizona State University (St. Louis)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Wallace is the guy that was always destined to be a Blue Jay. The club drafted him out of high school in ’05 even though he was an almost impossible signing due to his commitment to Arizona State. The club then had hoped to grab him in the ’08 draft, but St. Louis got to him first. Finally, the club nabbed him in a deal with Oakland (for Michael Taylor, who was obtained in the Roy Halladay deal). Wallace had a busy year in ’09 and played with three different minor league teams in double-A and triple-A. Overall on the year, he hit .293/.365/.458, which is not bad at all considering it was his first full season and he had a lot of change to deal with. The left-handed hitter fared very well against southpaws with an .897 OPS. Wallace projects to be a 20+ home run hitter with the ability to hit .280-.300. However, he needs to get a little more loft on the ball if he’s going to be a consistent power hitter. His walk rate took a bit of a hit with the promotion to triple-A (6.5%) compared to his double-A rate (11.7%), so he could stand to make some improvements in that area.

2. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Texas HS (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-96 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Drabek had an excellent ’09 season while returning from Tommy John surgery. He began the year in high-A ball and allowed 49 hits in 61.2 innings of work. His walk rate was solid at 2.77 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run, despite an average ground-ball rate. His strikeout rate was a nifty 10.80. Moved up to double-A, Drabek’s FIP rose from 1.82 to 3.83 but his walk rate was still good at 2.90 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped to 7.10 K/9. He gave up nine homers in double-A, as his HR/9 rate increased to 0.84 and his ground-ball rate dropped a little below average. Overall, he allowed 141 hits in 158.0 innings of work. The right-hander will probably begin the year back in double-A where he can hopefully improve his worm-burning numbers before moving up to the hitter’s haven that is Las Vegas. Drabek has the potential to be a No. 1 or 2 starter.

3. Zach Stewart, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas Tech University (Cincinnati)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

The club’s No. 1 prospect before the Halladay trade, Stewart is more suited to this position on a team’s Top 10 list. The right-hander has good stuff but the jury is still out on if he’s a starter or reliever. Toronto seems committed to him as a starter, which makes sense considering the bullpen depth that the club has at this point. Stewart pitched for four teams and at three levels in ’09. He began the year in high-A ball and posted a 2.63 FIP in seven starts. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.77 FIP in another seven starts. Jumped to triple-A with the Reds, he moved to the bullpen and had a 3.42 FIP in nine appearances before moving to Toronto where he had a 3.42 FIP in 11 games. His control dipped with each promotion, going from 1.70 to 2.43 to 4.90, so he clearly has some more work to do. On the plus side, his strikeout rate rose from 6.80 to 7.54 to 10.52. Along with his excellent K-rate, Stewart produces a lot of ground-balls (53% in ’09). If he can sharpen his change-up, he could be a solid No. 3 starter.

4. J.P. Arencibia, C, Triple-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – University of Tennessee
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly year for Arencibia, who balked at making adjustments to his approach at the plate, which led to a dismal walk rate of just 5.2% (although it was an improvement over ’08). Arencibia had a breakout year in ’08 by hitting 27 homers and driving in 105 runs between high-A and double-A. However, his wOBA dropped from .402 in high-A to .348 in double-A… and it continued to slide in ’09, down to .316. His strikeout rate has gone from 18.5 to 21.0 to 24.5% during that same span. His BABIP also bottomed out in ’09 at .269, as his triple-slash line was just .236/.284/.444 in 466 triple-A at-bats. It was bad timing for Arencibia, who likely would have been in line for the starting gig in Toronto in 2010, if he had had even an average year at triple-A. On the positive side, Arencibia has made huge strides on defense and now projects to be an average-to-above-average MLB catcher. Unless his hitting improves, though, he could be relegated to platoon work or a back-up gig on a championship-caliber team.

5. Moises Sierra, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With one of the strongest outfield arms in all of minor league baseball, Sierra made huge strides at the plate in ’09. Just 21, he hit .286/.360/.393 in 405 at-bats at high-A ball. His walk rate has improved each of the past three seasons and it was 7.4% in ’09. His strikeout rate has dropped each year and it was just 16.3% in high-A, as Sierra is obviously becoming more confident at the plate. He also improved his base running in ’09 and stole 10 bases in 12 tries after being successful just 12 times in 23 tries in ’08. On the negative side, his power has yet to develop, although he has the potential to hit for power. His ISO rate has dropped each of the past three seasons from .154 to .118 to .106. The club was obviously happy with Sierra’s performance in ’09, which included a wOBA of .353, and he received a late-season promotion to double-A. After appearing in just nine games at that level last season, Sierra should return there for 2010. He is a breakout candidate for the new season.

6. Brad Mills, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 4th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Mills almost made the club out of spring training in ’09 – after an excellent ’08 season – and his value skyrocketed early in the year. Unfortunately, he had some ups-and-downs at triple-A and also battled injuries, which has caused him to fall out of favor with a lot of prospect watchers. Despite his “off year,” Mills still posted a 3.80 FIP at triple-A and showed acceptable control with a walk rate of 3.74 BB/9 and a good, but not great, strikeout rate at 7.68 K/9. Given two starts in the Majors, Mills tried to nibble and lacked confidence in his fastball and curveball, both of which had negative values in a small sample size (7.2 innings). If healthy in 2010, Mills should open the year back in triple-A but he could be one of the first pitchers called up.

7. Travis D’Arnaud, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round pick (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

D’Arnaud could be ranked higher on this list but I’m taking the conservative approach as he played at low-A in ’09. Like Wallace, the club had tried to acquire this catcher via the draft but he was nabbed with the 37th overall pick by the Phillies. Toronto, picking 38th, ended up with Brett Cecil (a nice compensation). D’Arnaud, who turns 21 shortly, hit .255/.319/.419 in 482 at-bats in low-A ball last year (His numbers were depressed by a .279 BABIP). He showed good power potential with 38 doubles and 13 homers (.164 ISO). The catcher also had a pretty good approach at the plate with a walk rate of 7.6% and a strikeout rate of 15.6%. He has a good defensive reputation but he threw out just 23% of base stealers. The system suddenly has good depth at the catching position with the likes or Arencibia, D’Arnaud, and Carlos Perez.

8. Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Low-A
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus change-up, slider

Alvarez is an exciting prospect because his fastball has been gaining velocity over the past two seasons and now sits comfortably in the low 90s, and it has excellent sink. That good downward movement resulted in a ground-ball rate of 51.4% at low-A in ’09. The right-hander gave up just one homer in 124.1 innings of work, while also posting a 2.43 FIP as a teenager. He also showed excellent control for his age with a walk rate of 1.38 BB/9. Still learning how to set up hitters, Alvarez’ strikeout rate was just 6.66 K/9 but his breaking ball has strikeout potential. He’ll move up to High-A ball in 2010 at the age just 20.

9. Carlos Perez, C, Rookie
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The organization has not had much luck handing out large contracts to big-named international free agents, but Perez joins Alvarez and Sierra as one of the Jays’ best under-the-radar Latin signings. The catcher is solid defensive (albeit it with the usual youthful development needs), and he’s also becoming quite a force at the plate thanks to his solid batting eye. Perez, 19, made his North American debut in ’09 at rookie ball and hit .291/.364/.433 in 141 at-bats. After walking more than he struck out in the Dominican Summer League in ’08, he posted a respectable walk rate of 9.8% in the Gulf Coast League. He also showed some line-drive pop (.142 ISO) and he is more athletic than most catchers.

10. Danny Farquhar, RHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 10th round – University of Louisiana-Lafayette
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, cutter, slider, curveball, change-up

There are a number of other prospects that could have slid in here such as Gustavo Pierre, Tyler Pastornicky, Justin Jackson – interestingly enough all shortstops – because the system has so many sleepers in it right now (but few “can’t miss” names). Tim Collins was also an option here, but he projects to be a left-handed reliever, so his ceiling is a little lower than Farquhar who could develop into an eighth-inning guy, if not a closer. The right-hander comes at hitters from a variety of arm angles and can reach the low-90s from a sidearm slot. Perhaps because he throws so many different pitches – and with so many angles – Farquhar’s control has suffered and he posted a walk rate of 5.91 BB/9 in double-A. That obviously has to improve before he’ll have much success in the Majors. Despite that fact, he posted a 10.05 K/9 rate and allowed just one homer and 31 hits in 45.2 innings at the double-A level.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals

At the expiration of the Major League Baseball trading deadline, 35 prospects had changed hands (beginning July 19 with Milwaukee’s acquisition of Felipe Lopez). Over the next week, FanGraphs will take a look at each prospect, while also ranking them individually in value from 35 down to one. Players such as Justin Masterson, Clayton Richard, Kevin Hart, and Jeff Clement were not considered in this list because they have expired their rookie eligibility. However, they can still technically be considered “prospects” because they are young and have yet to establish themselves at the MLB level.

The week-long series wraps up today with the top seven prospects who moved at the trade deadline. We’ve already taken a look at 28 prospects:
35-29 on Monday
28-22 on Tuesday
21-15 on Wednesday
14-8 on Thursday

So let’s get to it and see who the biggest prospect names were.

Yesterday, I took a look at the two Mark DeRosa trades that Cleveland was involved in, both of which occurred within the last year. As a result, it got me thinking about the two Matt Holliday trades that also both occurred in roughly the same time period (Both DeRosa and Holliday oddly ended up with St. Louis). I was curious to see if Oakland came out on the plus side of both Holliday deals or not.

Dave Cameron and Erik Manning have both done a nice job of dissecting the Holliday trade to St. Louis, so I am not going to dwell too deeply on the trade itself. For those of you who don’t know by now, though, the Oakland Athletics received 3B/1B Brett Wallace, OF Shane Peterson, and RHP Clayton Mortensen. Wallace was St. Louis’ first-round draft pick in 2008 (13th overall), while Peterson (59th in ’08) and Mortensen (36th in ’07) were also highly regarded in college. All three players have seen their values increase since signing their initial pro contracts with the Cardinals organization.

Back on Nov. 10, 2008, Oakland general manager Billy Beane shocked baseball by acquiring Holliday from Colorado. The move was especially curious because Oakland was expected to be in rebuilding mode in 2009 and money is always an issue with the organization (The outfielder had a $13.5 million contract for 2009). But Beane obviously saw a chance to buy low (in his eyes) on a talented outfielder who could help the club contend sooner than expected in a weak American League West division. At worst, the A’s would end up with two high draft picks as compensation when Holliday headed for greener pastures as a free agent at the end of the ’09 season.

In exchange for Holliday, Oakland sent deposed closer Huston Street, left-handed starter Greg Smith, and the talented-but-frustrating young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to Colorado. Street has had a resurgence in the National League after seeing his numbers decline in his fourth season with Oakland. In 2008, he posted a 3.47 FIP. Street allowed just 58 hits in 70 innings of work, but his walk rate increased more than one walk per nine innings over his career average to 3.47 BB/9. His strikeout rate also dropped from 11.34 in 2007 to 8.87 K/9 in 2008 (although this was a number closer to his rates in 05-06).

In Colorado in ’09, batters are hitting just .195 against the 25-year-old right-hander, which is the lowest batting-average-against that Street has posted since his rookie year in ’05 (.194 average). His strikeout rate is up to 10.20 K/9, while his walk rate is back down to 2.13 BB/9. Street’s line-drive rate is also down about three percent. His fastball is almost 2 mph harder than it was in 2007-08.

Smith, meanwhile, has had a terrible season filled with inconsistencies and injuries. After making 32 starts and pitching 190.1 innings in his rookie season for Oakland in 2008, the left-hander has yet to appear in a big-league game this year. The former sixth-round draft pick (by Arizona) has made just five triple-A starts, while also appearing in both high-A and double-A while on rehab. In his five triple-A starts, Smith has allowed 20 hits and eight walks in 23 innings of work. He also has a 5.50 FIP and has allowed four homers. Even as his rather successful 2008 campaign came to a close, a lot of baseball watchers were crying, “Fluke!”

Still only 23, Gonzalez has spent most of the 2009 season in triple-A after spending the majority of ’08 in the Majors with Oakland, where he hit a disappointing .242/.273/.361 in 302 at-bats. This year, the left-handed hitter has batted .339/.418/.630 with 10 homers in 192 at-bats. Recently recalled to Colorado, he is hitting .225/.288/.373 with one homer and seven steals in 102 at-bats. Gonzalez’ poor approach at the plate (and lack of patience) has played a large part in his weak MLB numbers.

Colorado really did not get as much value for Holliday as it likely had hoped. The organization received a solid, young closer with a lot of experience, a future left-handed reliever, and a toolsy young outfielder that is looking more Delmon Young than Justin Upton. With that said, comparing the three players that Oakland received for Holliday and the three players that the organization gave up for Holliday, it looks pretty even at this point especially when you consider how Street’s stability in the bullpen has helped Colorado remain in the playoff hunt.

Wallace, though, has the potential to significantly overshadow the loss of Street if he can live up to his potential, but that could take a few years. Even so, you have to figure that a lot of organizations would trade Street for Wallace, straight up. Trading Smith and Gonzalez for Peterson and Mortensen is a bit of a toss up, and really depends on how much you believe in Gonzalez. If he reaches his potential, he could be an impact player. Both Peterson and Mortensen look like complementary parts, but they should both end up being more valuable than Smith.

In the end, it’s hard to say if Oakland came out on the winning end of the two Holliday deals or not. In the long run, though, my gut says that they did.

Rumors are flying throughout the twitterverse that St. Louis is doing some Holliday shopping, and it is expected to come at the expense of their top prospect, Brett Wallace.

Brett Wallace is not-so affectionately dubbed “the Walrus” by scouts for his 6-1, 245 pear-shaped body. Scouts do love his bat though; he was considered to be the best pure hitter of the 2008 draft. In just a season and a half of pro-ball, Wallace has put up a .308/.392/.469 line. This year he started slowly for Triple-A Memphis, but has worked his way up to a respectable .298/.351/.431. Not eye-catching, but certainly not at all shabby for someone who was swinging a metal bat in the Pac-10 just a little over a year ago.

Wallace is not projected to be a big-time power threat, but rather a 15-20 homer guy who hits for a high average and takes his fair share of walks; somewhat of a Kevin Youkilis before he found his power stroke. The biggest knock on Wallace his “fall down range”. He’s defensively challenged at third base to put it mildly, and there is this guy named Pujols in St. Louis who isn’t moving from first base.

Baseball America recently came out with their mid-season top 25, and Wallace ranked 21st. According to Victor Wang — who has published some tremendous research on the hidden value of prospects and the draft — top 11-25 ranked hitters have a trade value of $25 million. Suffice to say, Wallace is a valuable commodity.

Matt Holliday is projected to hit for a .370 wOBA the rest of the season. He’s a good fielder and base-runner, so we can safely figure he will add to the Cardinals a couple of wins, worth $9 million. He’s also a Type-A free agent at the end of the season, meaning an added bonus of some extra draft picks. Once again referring to Victor’s research, that compensation is worth $5 million to a club, not even close to equal value of a top 100 prospect. (Sky also has more light on the subject at BtB. Bookmark it, folks.) Holliday is also due about $6M in salary for the rest of the season.

So two wins plus draft pick compensation minus salary equals about $8 million in value for Holliday. Simple math, folks — $25M > $8M. The trade is actually pretty lopsided when you look at from that perspective. Mozeliak is also faced with the fact that after Brett Wallace, his farm system will be a lot thinner, no pun intended.

Flags fly forever, and Wallace may never quite pan out and is probably not the greatest fit for his parent club.The Cardinals should be buyers at this point, but I wonder if they can’t get a better return than a rental for their top prospect.

2008 Draft Slot: 13th overall
Top Pick: Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Arizona State University
Best Pick: Brett Wallace
Keep an Eye On: Lance Lynn, RHP, University of Mississippi (Supplemental 1st round)
Notes: He’s posted modest strikeout totals and he’s not missing a ton of bats to this point in his career, but Lance Lynn is already in double-A. The sinker-slider pitcher may see his hit totals drop as he gets higher in the minors and into the Majors as he receives better defense behind him, which will gobble up those ground balls. Brett Wallace is just a hitting machine and would probably be in the Majors already if A) Albert Pujols wasn’t at first base, and B) The organization was convinced he could handle third base at the MLB level. The first round aside, this was a rather uninteresting draft.

2007 Draft Slot: 18th overall
Top Pick: Peter Kozma, SS, Oklahoma high school
Best Pick: Jess Todd, RHP, University of Arkansas (2nd round, 82nd overall)
Worst Pick: Thomas Eager, RHP, Cal Poly (5th round)
Notes: The Cardinals organization went outside its comfort zone of taking college players and selected Peter Kozma with the first-round selection. It is turning out to be an uninspired choice, given Kozma’s offensive ceiling may top out as a utility player. The selections of pitchers Clayton Mortensen, Adam Reifer, and Jess Todd, could help to turn things around, though. The club also had a couple of interesting early-round picks that are turning into sleepers after modest starts to their pro careers: RHP David Kopp (2nd round) and 3B Daniel Descalso (3rd round).

2006 Draft Slot: 30th overall
Top Pick: Adam Ottavino, RHP, Northeastern University
Best Pick: Chris Perez, RHP, University of Miami (Supplemental 1st round)
Worst Pick: Brad Furnish, LHP, Texas Christian (2nd round)
Notes: Brad Furnish narrowly edges 1B Mark Hamilton for the worst pick in the draft so far. Adam Ottavino has not been very good of late, either, since graduating from high-A ball. Chris Perez has already helped the Cardinals in the bullpen. Pitchers P.J. Walters (11th round) and Nick Additon (47th round) have exceeded expectations. Outfielders Shane Robinson (fifth round) and Jon Jay (second round) are looking like useful part-time MLB players.

2009 Draft Slot: 19th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College
MLB Club Need: Third base, Shortstop, Second base
Organizational Need: Left field, Right field, Second base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Third base, Center field
Notes: All the mock drafts to this point seem to be looking at the Cardinals taking a college left-hander, such as Mike Minor or Rex Brothers. The club could use some infield depth too.