Archive for Carl Pavano

It has been reported that Brewers GM Doug Melvin is interested in signing two of his front-line pitchers, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, to contract extensions before they become free agents next off-season. This would be a big morale boost for a fanbase that will likely be going through Prince Fielder withdrawal this winter. If Fielder does leave, his $15.5 million salary coming off the books would certainly help create the flexibility to re-sign these two important parts of the organization. However, as with any long-term extension, there are plenty of risks to this plan, especially with Marcum.

Marcum was acquired from the Blue Jays in December 2010 as part of the Brewers’ “go all in for 2011” plan. He had a solid first season in Milwaukee, pitching 200.2 innings with a 3.73 FIP, both career bests. These numbers earned him 2.7 WAR, which due to the league switch and the decline in offense in 2011, was actually 0.9 WAR worse than his 2010 campaign with the Jays.

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A popular theory going into this series was that the Twins needed to win game one if they wanted to have a shot at winning this thing. I disagreed. While having a one game lead is a nice luxury, it’s not a death sentence. With all of the concerns about the Yankees’ number two and three starters, Minnesota has a chance to jump ahead in the series, so game two will be the most important spot for the Twinkies.

The Starter
Carl Pavano gets the call in game two, and he’ll have his work cut out for him. While Pavano’s never been one to fan many batters, he had an especially hard time during the month of September, posting a K/9 of 2.81. Yet, his whiff rate was roughly the same as it had been all year, and he still managed to have a K/BB of 2.00.

Pavano’s control puts him at a huge advantage against the Yankee’s lineup. New York has been the second best team in baseball when it comes to drawing walks, but their patient approach won’t do them much good against Pavano, one of the best in baseball when it comes to throwing strikes.

As far as his arsenal goes, nothing Pavano throws moves all that much or gets to the plate in a hurry. His changeup is easily his best offering, and he uses it as his strikeout pitch. I’d expect to see a lot of sinkers and changeups tonight, as Pavano will look to keep the ball away from the Yankee’s hitters.

The Defense
One of the things that Pavano has done well this year is get a ton of ground balls, and that plays right into the Twins’ strength. According to UZR, The Twins’ outfield defense was worth almost 12 runs below average this year, but their infield defense is another story. Orlando Hudson, Danny Valencia and J.J. Hardy are all well above average defenders, so while Michael Cuddyer isn’t very good at first base, the Twins will be able to gobble up a majority of the grounders that Pavano can deliver.

The Lineup
As Jack mentioned last night, the Twins’ lefties really struggled against Sabathia, and they won’t get much of a reprieve tonight as the Yankees are sending Andy Pettitte to the hill. While Pettitte is certainly no Sabathia, he may have a fairly easy time keeping Jim Thome and Jason Kubel off balance at the plate. If the Twins can take pitches and force Pettitte to work hard early on, they could open up a big inning and chase him from the game sooner, rather than later.

Sager’s Suit
What will Craig Sager dig out of a dumpster tonight? Probably something subtle. You know, something like a pink polka dot jacket with a yellow shirt.

A year and a half ago, Carl Pavano was baseball’s biggest punch line. Formerly a prized Red Sox prospect, Pavano was traded to Montreal in 1997 as part of a package for Pedro Martinez. He overcame early arm troubles that DL’d him three times from 1999 to 2001 to establish himself with the Marlins, whom he was traded to in July of 2002. Topping 200 innings in both 2003 and 2004, Pavano averaged 5.78 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, a 4.03 xFIP and 3.9 WAR a season. After the ’04 campaign, the Yankees came to terms with Pavano on a four-year, $39.95 million deal that will live in infamy.

Shoulder tendinitis. Bruised buttocks. Fractured ribs, suffered in a car accident and allegedly hidden from the club for a time. Tommy John surgery. Pavano threw all of 145.2 innings for the Bombers, contributing just 1.1 WAR while drawing the ire of fans and becoming tabloid fodder. When Pavano signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Indians in January of 2009, with $5.3 million in performance bonuses, most snickered and wondered if he’d strain something while putting his John Hancock on the contract.

In Cleveland, something peculiar occurred: Pavano pitched as if the preceding four years never happened, morphing back into the strike-throwing machine who earned praise with the Marlins. His ERA with the Tribe (5.37) was ugly, but his xFIP (3.94) suggested he was performing as well as ever. Pavano continued his revival in Minnesota (3.99 xFIP) following an August trade. Overall, he had 6.64 K/9, 1.76 BB/9 and 3.7 WAR in 199.1 innings, with a big discrepancy between his ERA (5.10) and xFIP (3.96) due to a .335 batting average on balls in play and a low rate of stranding base runners (66.1 percent).

Pavano accepted arbitration this past off-season, and he’s earning $7 million in 2010. He’s well on his way to justifying that salary — with 1.5 WAR in 96.1 frames, the mustachioed 34-year-old has provided the Twins with about $6 million in value already. Pavano’s not missing as many bats this season (5.14 K/9), but he’s being even stingier with the walks (1.31 BB/9) and has increased his ground ball rate slightly (45.9% this year, 43.4% in ’09). His xFIP (4.03) is essentially the same as last season, though his ERA (3.64) is dramatically lower thanks to a .267 BABIP and a 73.4 percent strand rate.

Utilizing an 89-90 MPH fastball, a low-80’s slider and a low-80’s changeup, Pavano gets ahead in the count like few others — his first pitch strike percentage was 67.7 last year, and comes in at 66.2 percent in 2010 (the MLB average is about 58 percent). Among qualified MLB starters, only Cliff Lee, Carlos Silva, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay have a higher F-Strike% this season.

And, hitters have a tough time laying off his stuff off the plate. Pavano garnered swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 32.3 percent in 2009 (25.1 percent MLB average) and 36.4 percent this season (28.3 percent MLB average). The 2010 mark is tops among big league starters.

If Pavano reaches his modest rest-of-season ZiPS projection (a 4.30 FIP in just 77 innings), he would finish the year with around 2.5 WAR and would end up being a bargain for the Twins. Should he approach last year’s innings total with a FIP closer to his current level, he would again top the three win mark. After years of DL stints and derision from fans and analysts, Pavano is back to being a quality rotation cog on a playoff-caliber team.

Let’s play everyone’s favorite game – Guess That Stat-Line! The two pitching lines below are crude Marcel projections for 2009. See if you can notice any truly significant differences:

Player A: 4.39 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 3.32 BB/9, 6.35 K/9, Birthday on Jan. 12
Player B: 4.55 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 3.13 BB/9, 6.14 K/9, Birthday on Jan. 8

On one hand, Player A has an ERA 0.16 runs better per nine innings, while the other has an almost equal advantage in the FIP department. On the other hand, the ERA and FIP figures above are not all that impressive to begin with. Player A will strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more as well. Neither breaks the 2.0 K/BB barrier. So why bring these two somewhat average or below average projections to light?

Well, Player A was just traded by the Florida Marlins, and Player B is now rumored to be on their off-season shopping list. Yes, Player A = Scott Olsen, and Player B = Carl Pavano. Pavano last pitched for the Marlins in 2004, when he put together a very solid season: 31 GS, 222.1 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 1.98 BB/9. His season was so good that Brian Cashman decided Pavano could serve as a key cog in the Yankees rotation for the next four seasons. In actuality, Carl made just 26 starts from 2005-08, surrendering 182 hits in 145.2 innings, complete with a 5.00 ERA and miniscule 4.63 K/9.

The 4.63 K/9 is generous, as well, given that the same metric fell to 3.18 in 2007 and 3.93 in 2008. In 7 starts this past season, Pavano didn’t even average 5.0 IP/gm with his 34.1 innings logged, and he walked more hitters than usual, evidenced by his 2.62 BB/9. Now, seven starts is too small of a sample size to use as a concrete predictor of future performance, but it is clear even from his 2005 season that Pavano has lost a whole lot of his ability to strike batters out. On top of that, he has gone from 91-92 mph to 88 mph.

Put everything together, and the Marlins are considering signing a 33-year old pitcher who cannot strike batters out, seems to be on the verge of walking more, who has also lost significant velocity on his fastball. Who did they just trade away? A 25-yr old pitcher who has lost the ability to strike batters out, is walking plenty, and who has lost velocity on his fastball. In case you’re missing my point here, they are considering bringing in the equivalent of what they just traded away, plus eight more years in age, who will likely cost more money.

Yesterday we looked at Mike Hampton and his many injuries, and so it only made sense to today take a look at another member of the FIP—Fraternity for the Injury Prone—Carl Pavano. Prior to the 2005 season Yankees GM Brian Cashman inked Pavano to a four-year deal worth around 39.95 million dollars. The signing came on the heels of two very solid seasons from the righty once traded for Pedro Martinez. Aside from W-L and ERA, Pavano had decreased his BB/9, WHIP, HR/9, BAA, BABIP, and FIP each year from 2001-2004, leading to a rise in his K/BB and LOB%.

Unfortunately, his K/9 also took hits in each of these years. All told, the Yankees looked like they might have been getting a good #4 starter albeit at a steep price. Now, at the end of that contract, the deal looks like one of the worst ever handed out, not just because Pavano’s pinstripes performance lacked quality for the most part, but because those performances were so few and far between.

Since signing with the Yankees, Pavano has made 19 starts, pitched in 111.1 innings, with an FIP upwards of 4.70. He missed the 2006 season completely, made just two of those nineteen starts in 2007, and Cashman seems to believe that he won’t recover from his latest surgery in time to pitch this year, meaning the Yankees would have paid 40 million dollars for 17 starts of below average pitching in 2005, and two relatively meaningless starts in 2007.

Pavano’s contract bothered the players, as well, never the more evident than in the book Living On the Black in which Mike Mussina scoffed at a contract offer from the Yankees that there was no way he would accept less money than Carl Pavano.

He also took criticism for withholding injury information from the Yankees, after breaking his ribs in a car crash. He didn’t tell the team until he was scheduled to come off the disabled list for a different injury. I cannot imagine how that conversation went down.

Cashman: Well, Carl, we’re activating you and will schedule you in the rotation.
Pavano: Oh wait, I forgot to tell you…
Cashman: (sighs) What now?
Pavano: I actually have broken ribs.
Cashman: How long have you forgotten to tell us?
Pavano: A few weeks.
Cashman: Were you planning on telling us?
Pavano: Well… not really… but now that they hurt alot…

What the future holds for this once promising prospect is yet to be seen, but just like Mike Hampton will likely forever be remembered for his injuries, Carl Pavano will likely go down in baseball lore as one of the worst retrospective contract signings in the history of the game. Since Pavano signed, he has made 19 starts… in that same span, Roy Halladay has 23 complete games.