Archive for Cesar Valdez

Before we delve into either the nitty or the gritty of tonight’s featured match-up, allow me to inform the reader that, had he read and obeyed this past Friday’s edition of One Night Only, he’d have been apprised of one of the killerest pitchers’ duels that is sure to occur this season. For it was this past Friday — a.k.a. CPL Fest 2010 — that Clifton Phifer Lee and Colby Phrigging Lewis pitched seven and nine innings of shutout baseball, respectively.

All of which is to say that One Night Only is here to help you. And also, Colby Lewis is a demigod.

[Note: Minor league numbers are courtesy of StatCorner. HR/BIA = Home Run per Ball in Air. MLB average for starters is 6.5%. MiLB average is I-don’t-know-what.]

Arizona at Houston | Monday, May 03 | 8:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
D-Backs: Cesar Valdez (R)
23.2 IP, 9.51 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 56.2% GB, 12.0% HR/BIA, 3.75 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 5.22 (CHONE) 5.36 (ZiPS)

Astros: Felipe Paulino (R)
21.2 IP, 6.23 K/9, 5.82 BB/9, .323 BABIP, 44.9% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 5.41 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.54 (FAN) 4.75 (CHONE) 5.00 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
If there’s one thing baseball nerds the world over like, it’s the rent-free paradise that is a mother’s basement. But if there’s one other thing baseball nerds like, it’s the Major League debut of an interesting prospect. In the case of tonight’s Arizona/Houston contest, the prospect in question is Mr. Cesar Valdez.

In addition to probably being the distant relative of the man who frigging invented coffee, Valdez was ranked by our man on the scene Marc Hulet as the eight-best prospect in the Arizona system. If you read Hulet’s analysis of Valdez, you read words that looked almost a hundred percent like these:

Valdez is a soft-tosser whose best pitch is a change-up. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. Even so, he’s had success in the minors, although he hit a speed bump in ‘09 at triple-A (5.18 FIP in 19 games). The right-hander began the year in double-A, where he allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings and posted a 3.00 FIP. He has good control (2.81 BB/9 in triple-A) but his strikeout rates are modest, as he pitches to contact due to his lack of a true out-pitch. Valdez does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and should produce a ground-ball rate around 50%. Because of his fringe-stuff, he could end up as a middle reliever.

Of course the words “ground-ball rate” alone are enough to prick up the ears of the armchair prospect maven. That said, there’s very possibly a startling development in the Cesar Valdez Story. In a recent edition of his Diamondback Notes, The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro wrote the following:

Diamondbacks farm director Mike Berger watched Valdez pitch on April 19 and came away impressed.

“When I saw him, I saw a wipeout sinker,” Berger said. “He had plus sinker and a change-up that acted like a split. He mowed through Sacramento. That sinker had real bottom to it. He was getting lots of swings and misses.”

Valdez throws his sinker in the 89-91 mph range, up from the 86-88 mph he was throwing in the fall league.

That latter range is the one off of which Hulet was very likely working. But if Valdez really is touching 90 mph now, and if his sinker is actually functioning as a swing-and-miss pitch, then there’s the distinct possibility that Valdez could impress.

One Other Note
Cole Gillespie was recalled last week from Triple-A Reno. He’s not only another of those guys on Hulet’s Top 10 list, but he’s also a player about whom I, personally, was quite bullish last summer. (Be warned: that article is flipping long. Just go to the end to read about Gillespie.)

If I Had My Druthers
• Cesar Valdez would avoid making me look like a fool.
• Felipe Paulino would stop making me looks like a fool.
• I would stop making my own self look like a fool.

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Farm Director: Mike Berger
Scouting Director: Tom Allison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Perhaps no team’s Top 10 list would benefit more if 2009 draftees were included. The system, hurting for depth, was served some serious CPR this past season. Players who could be in the Top 10, if eligible, include: Matt Davidson, Ryan Wheeler, Marc Krauss, Mike Belfiore, Chris Owings, A.J. Pollock, Keon Broxton, and Bobby Borchering… but you read about those eight prospects in yesterday’s draft review, so you’re basically getting a Top 18 prospect list with this organization (please, save the applause).

1. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Indiana HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, plus slider, curveball, change-up

If not for Tommy John surgery, Parker might have been pitching at the MLB level in late ’09 or early 2010. As it stands now, he’ll spend the year trying to recapture his previous form. The right-hander was having a nice season in ’09 pre-injury. He blew through high-A in four dominating starts and then made 16 more appearances in double-A before the elbow popped. He allowed 82 hits in 78.1 innings of work, while also showing OK control with a walk rate of 3.91 BB/9 and posting good strikeout numbers (8.50 K/9). Parker also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.23 HR/9) due to his ground-ball rate of 55%. If he can regain his previous fastball velo, and keep up the ground-ball rate, Parker could be a No. 1 or 2 starter in the Majors.

2. Brandon Allen, 1B, Majors
DOB: February 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2004 5th round – Texas HS (Chicago AL)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

A nice grab from the White Sox (a club that also gave up on Oakland’s Chris Carter), Allen had a breakout ’09 season and looked like he might have a shot at the MLB job in 2010 until the organization signed free agent Adam LaRoche. The soon-to-be-24-year-old will receive another year of seasoning in triple-A unless LaRoche goes down with an injury. Allen played for four teams (three levels) in ’09 and he made his MLB debut. In total, he slugged 34 homers and possesses massive power that could allow him to hit 30+ in the Majors if he can make enough contact. In 104 MLB at-bats, the slugger struck out at a rate of 38.5%, which was about 18% more often than he struck out in the minors in ’09. Allen has done a nice job of getting on-base during his career, with multiple seasons of +10% walk rates.

3. Cole Gillespie, OF, Triple-A
DOB: June 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 3rd round – Oregon State University (Milwaukee)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Gillespie was acquired last season from Milwaukee and is your typical fringe-regular. He does a lot of things well, but nothing stands out. He doesn’t have enough range to play center field, so he’s stuck on a corner and that shines a lot more light on his bat, which is average. A gap hitter, Gillespie projects to hit around 10-15 homers and steal about the same number of bases. His best bet for a prolonged MLB career is as a fourth outfielder in the Reed Johnson mold. He spent much of the ’09 season where he hit .242/.332/.424 in 236 at-bats and his BABIP was on the low side at .289. In triple-A for Arizona, he hit .304/.418/.514, but was aided by a BABIP of .363. Gillespie does a nice job of getting on base (+10% walk rate) but he strikes out too much for his average power.

4. Collin Cowgill, OF, High-A
DOB: May 22, 1986 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2008 5th round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Cowgill is an interesting player and not that dissimilar from Gillespie. Just 5’9”, he’s shown some good pop for his size but he doesn’t project to be a power hitter in the Majors. More likely than not, he’s going to end up as a fourth outfielder or platoon player. He battled injuries in ’09 and had just 220 at-bats in high-A. His triple-slash line was .277/.373/.445 and he showed good patience at the plate with a walk rate of 11.2%. His strikeout rate was a bit high at 22.3%. He added 11 steals in 15 tries. If given full playing time in the Majors, Cowgill would likely produce some 15-15 seasons. It will be interesting to see what he can do in double-A in 2010.

5. Wade Miley, LHP, High-A
DOB: November 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Southeastern Louisiana University
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, slider, curveball, change-up

A personal favorite of mine from the ’08 draft, Miley has developed slowly. The southpaw, already 23, spent the majority of the year in low-A where he allowed a lot of hits (127) in 113.2 innings of work. On the plus side, he showed good control with a walk rate of 2.30 BB/9. His strikeout rate was modest at 7.21 K/9. Overall, he posted a FIP of 3.38 but at his age, and experience level, he should have dominate the league. He received three starts in high-A and that’s where he should begin the 2010 season, and will look to have a little more luck on his side after posting a high BABIP and a low strand rate.

6. Leyson Septimo, LHP, Double-A
DOB: July 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire:91-95 mph fastball, slider

A former outfielder who wasn’t totally useless at the plate (He hit .270 before his conversion to the mound), Septimo is now trying to harness his plus-fastball as a reliever. In ’09 at high-A, he allowed 29 hits in 38.1 innings of work while and he struck out batters at a rate of 10.33 K/9. He moved up to double-A and posted a strikeout rate of 12.27 K/9. It’s his control that is holding him back, though, and he posted a walk rate of 6.10 at high-A and 8.84 BB/9 in double-A. With just under 100 innings of pitching experience, it’s no surprise that Septimo’s control is off, but he’s turning 25 in July and he hasn’t dominated left-handed batters.

7. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Low-A
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Just 20, this former third-round pick is still raw but he remains an interesting shortstop prospect. While spending ’09 in low-A, Navarro hit .262/.308/.339 in 451 at-bats. The weaknesses are clear: his walk rate is just 5.5% and his ISO rate was .078. Navarro does have some speed and he swiped 12 bases in 16 tries. He also did a nice job of trimming his ’08 strikeout rate from 26.5% to 18.8% in ’09, giving hope that he could develop into a No. 2 hitter. Defensively, he has good range for the position but his arm might get him moved off the position to second base. Navarro is a long way off from reaching the Majors, but his potential appears to be that of a starting shortstop on a second-tier club.

8. Cesar Valdez, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Valdez is a soft-tosser whose best pitch is a change-up. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. Even so, he’s had success in the minors, although he hit a speed bump in ’09 at triple-A (5.18 FIP in 19 games). The right-hander began the year in double-A, where he allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings and posted a 3.00 FIP. He has good control (2.81 BB/9 in triple-A) but his strikeout rates are modest, as he pitches to contact due to his lack of a true out-pitch. Valdez does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and should produce a ground-ball rate around 50%. Because of his fringe-stuff, he could end up as a middle reliever.

9. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Majors
DOB: May 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 2nd round – Villanova University (New York NL)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

Part of the ill-fated Johan Santana trade between the Twins and Mets, Mulvey made his way from the Twins to the Diamondbacks in ’09. He had a respectable, but far from dominant, year in triple-A for the Twins where he posted a 3.96 FIP and allowed 153 hits in 149.0 innings. He showed average control and posted a walk rate of 3.25 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was low at 6.83 K/9. The right-hander struggled in eight MLB appearances split between the Twins and the Diamondbacks. His ceiling is probably that of a No. 4 starter or long/middle reliever. Mulvey has a pretty good slider, but he needs to improve his fastball command so he can set up his out-pitch.

10. Roque Mercedes, RHP, Double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Another ’09 trade acquisition, Mercedes had a nifty season in the bullpen for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks organizations. The right-hander began the year in high-A and posted a 2.19 FIP in 29 games. Batters managed to hit just .181 against him and he posted a strikeout rate of 9.72 K/9. His walk rate was OK at 3.24 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run. Moved up to double-A after the trade, Mercedes’ FIP rose to 3.67 and he allowed 14 hits in 19.0 innings. His walk rate jumped to 4.74 BB/9 but his K-rate rose to 11.84 K/9. The 23-year-old pitcher is probably still a year away from the Majors and his ceiling is probably that of an eighth-inning set-up man.

Up Next: The Los Angeles Angels

The Graduate: Max Scherzer | Born: July 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Max Scherzer found much success at the Major League level in 2008, which was made all the more impressive by the fact he held his own regardless of the role assigned to him. He started seven games and also made nine relief appearances. In total, he allowed 48 hits in 56 innings of work. Scherzer posted rates of 3.38 BB/9 and 10.61 K/9, along with a 3.33 FIP. One warning sign with his season, though, is a high line-drive rate at 28.1%. Scherzer certainly has the stuff to have a dominating career, with a fastball that averages 94.2 mph, as well as a slider and change-up.

The Riser: Cesar Valdez | Born: March 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A recent addition to the 40-man roster, Cesar Valdez split the year between High-A ball and Double-A. In total, he used his fringe fastball and excellent secondary pitches (curve and change) to strike out 140 batters in 160.1 innings of work. Valdez’ plus control, though, struggled a bit upon the promotion, as it increased from 1.50 to 3.22 BB/9. His K/BB ratio also dropped from 5.00 to 2.61. The 2009 season will be a big year for Valdez as it will help to determine whether his stuff will play against more advanced hitters.

The Tumbler: Barry Enright | Born: March 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A 2007 second-round draft pick out of college, Barry Enright made his pro debut that same year out of the bullpen and did not allow an earned run over three minor league levels (15 innings). Moved back into the starting rotation in 2008, which is the role he held in college, Enright struggled in High-A ball and allowed 185 hits in 164.1 innings. He posted rates of 1.92 BB/9 and 7.83 K/9. His fastball is in the upper 80s and peaks at 92 mph. His slider is his second best offering and the change-up is lacking. Enright is probably best suited for the bullpen.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Bryan Shaw | Born: November 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The Diamondbacks’ second round selection in 2008, Bryan Shaw had an up-and-down debut. He started his pro career in Rookie ball but struggled by allowing 24 hits in 17.1 innings. Shaw was then promoted to A-ball, where he improved by allowing 18 hits in 22.1 innings. The reliever also walked six and struck out 16. Shaw should begin 2009 in High-A ball, where he could dominate with a mid-90s fastball and wipe-out slider.

The ’09 Sleeper: Evan Frey | Born: June 1986 | Outfielder

The Diamondbacks organization has had a lot of success with developing outfielders and Evan Frey is no different. The speedy outfielder stole 37 bases between two A-ball levels. At High-A ball, Frey hit .297/.395/.402 with an ISO of .105. A left-handed batter, Frey understands the value of getting on base to utilize his speed. He posted rates of 13.9 BB% and 20.1 K%. At the very least, he should be a valuable fourth outfielder at the Major League level.

This concludes the two-month, 30-team review of the 2008 minor league season. Thanks for reading!