Archive for Chris Volstad

So far this season, the Miami Marlins nabbed a trio of marquee free agents while also being heavily connected with eventual Angels’ signees Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. After a quiet couple of weeks, the team might be in on another deal, albeit this time with a less sexy name: Joe Saunders.

Saunders makes some folks cringe because he was the big-league player the Diamondbacks got in the Dan Haren trade. Baseball fanatics know that Tyler Skaggs — who also was acquired in the deal — is a very well-regarded prospect; but to the casual fan, the trade looked like a Haren-for-Saunders salary dump. Saunders’ performance did little to quell that sentiment: He posted only 1.9 WAR in almost a season-and-a-half before Arizona non-tendered him this fall. Read the rest of this entry »

It takes a little luck to be a real-life All-Star, or to win yourself some individual hardware. Both Cy Young winners outperformed their FIPs by a nice clip last season. Felix Hernandez (2.27 ERA, 3.04 FIP) and Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 3.01 FIP) also did this despite owning career ERAs and FIPs that were much closer together. Fantasy baseball sleeper lists are rife with those that underperformed their FIPs – Francisco Liriano (3.62 ERA, 2.66 FIP) and Yovani Gallardo (3.84 ERA, 3.02 FIP) might feature prominently.

But what about the players that suffered through a season of incredibly neutral luck? Should we not celebrate them somehow? They somehow managed to flip a coin a hundred times and get fifty tails. That seems worth… something.

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Over the last week, we’ve been looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the National League East division, which was fairly barren in terms of rookies in 2008 although the Braves organization had its fair share of newbies.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East and NL Central.

Perhaps buoyed by the mass of ever-present media, fielder Daniel Murphy entered 2009 with quite a bit of hype after just 188 at-bats during the ’08 season. Last year, he hit .313/.397/.473 with rates of 12.1 BB% and 21.4 K%. Murphy hit just two homers (.160 ISO) and did not successfully steal a base in two attempts. Perhaps the biggest negative with the left-handed hitter is his lack of position. Originally an infielder, Murphy’s penchant for errors led to a move to the outfield, where he spent all of 2008 while in the Majors. This season, he’s split his time between left field and first base. His 2009 line of .250/.324/.362 is below average for both positions, as is his ISO at .112.

Martin Prado bounced between the Majors and triple-A during both the 2006 and 2007 seasons. He spent the majority of the 2008 season with Atlanta and had an above-average offensive season for a utility player by hitting .320/.377/.461 with 18 doubles and three steals in 228 at-bats. His rates were also pretty good at 8.4 BB% and 12.7 K%. This season, the infielder is hitting .277/.344/.445 with 11 doubles and no steals in 119 at-bats. Both his plate rates have improved by a percent or two. The downside, much like with Murphy above, is that Prado has been used mostly at a position that traditionally produces power (third base and first base). If he spent more time at second base – or shortstop – he would have greater value to the Braves, assuming he can play at least average defense at those positions.

Desperate for some outfield help in 2008, the Braves organization ran through a number of outfielders with “fourth outfielder” labels hovering over them and not one of the three players has done much to dispute that impending title. Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones have all seen their playing time with the Braves decrease, even though the club still needs outfield depth. In fact, Anderson was traded out of the organization to Detroit earlier this year. Blanco showed the ability to get on base last season but he did it with almost no power. The 25-year-old outfielder hit .251/.366/.309 with 19 extra base hits and 13 steals in 430 at-bats. This season, he’s spent the majority of the year in triple-A. Jones hit .267/.312/.397 with one homer and a single steal in 116 at-bats. His rates of 5.7 BB% and 24.1 K% suggested more work needed to be done. Like Blanco, Jones has spent most of 2009 in triple-A.

Stolen from the Tigers in a trade after the 2007 season, right-hander Jair Jurrjens has been a very good pitcher for the Braves. Jurrjens posted a 3.68 ERA (3.59 FIP) in 2008 with 188 hits allowed in 188.1 innings of work. He also had a walk rate of 3.35 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.64 K/9. His ground-ball rate was 51.2%. This season, Jurrjens has allowed 81 hits in 87.1 innings of work, along with an ERA of 2.89 (3.52 FIP). His rates are very similar, although his ground-ball percentage has dropped to just 39.5%.

Reliever Manny Acosta allowed 48 hits in 53.0 IP but posted disappointing rates of 4.42 BB/9 and 5.26 K/9. He’s pitching in just nine MLB games in 2009 with eight hits allowed in 11.2 innings. He’s also shown similar rates, which is disappointing considering his fastball averages out at 93 mph.

Emilio Bonifacio had a very nice first month of the 2009 season, but that has been sandwiched by about six months worth of below-average play. Based on his offensive skill set, the 24-year-old infielder is best suited to play second base, but he’s spent the majority of the 2009 season at third base, where he has hit .241/.288/.292, which is well-below-average for a third base (and even for a second baseman). He’s also stolen just 12 bases in 17 attempts and has a walk rate of 6.5 BB%. Last year, Bonifacio hit .243/.296/.337 with seven steals in 11 attempts. Sadly, he’s not even a stellar defensive player.

John Baker, 28, toiled in the minors for seven seasons before earning his shot in 2008 and he hit .299/.392/.447 with five homers in 197 at-bats. The catcher also showed OK patience at the plate with a walk rate of 13.2 BB%. This season, Baker has struggled to hit for average with a line of .245/.335/.411 and six homers in 163 at-bats. His ground-ball rate is probably a little high at 56.3% for a plodding catcher.

The ground-ball pitcher that is Chris Volstad had a very nice debut season in 2008. The right-hander quieted the critics who said he was not ready by posting a 2.88 ERA (3.82 FIP) with 76 hits in 84.1 innings of work. He posted a walk rate of 3.84 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.55 K/9 but allowed just three homers (0.32 HR/9). It’s the missing quality sinker that has hurt Volstad in 2009. He’s given up 88 hits in 89.1 innings, including 14 long balls (1.41 HR/9).

Southpaw John Lannan, 24, doesn’t get a lot of love even though he keeps putting up the results – and for a bad team. He had a 3.91 ERA (4.79 FIP) while allowing 172 hits in 182 innings in 2008. The left-hander also had rates of 3.56 BB/9 and 5.79, so he puts the ball in play a lot. In 2009, Lannan has a 3.38 ERA (5.09 FIP) with 82 hits allowed in 85.1 innings. His walk rate is very similar, but the strikeout has dropped to 4.43 BB/9.

Collin Balester, 23, has to be pretty disappointed. The right-hander made 15 starts in 2008 and allowed 92 hits in 80 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.15 BB/9 and 5.63 K/9. Like Lannan, Balester also struggled with home runs and he allowed 12 homers (1.35 HR/9). This season, he’s made all 14 of his starts in triple-A, where he has a 4.00 ERA.

Steven Shell and Charlie Manning both pitched a good chunk of innings for the club in 2008, but neither player has seen much MLB playing time in 2008. The better of the two pitchers, Shell is a former Angels prospect, posted a 2.16 ERA in exactly 50 innings. He also had a 7.38 K/9 rate. In 2009, though, the right-hander fell apart. He appeared in four games for the Nationals before moving on to the Seattle organization, where he has a 7.90 ERA in 12 games. Manning appeared in 57 games in 2008 with an ERA of 5.17. He has yet to pitch in the Majors in ’09.

The Philadelphia Phillies organization did not distribute significant playing time to any rookies in 2008.

One of the best parts of having the Extra Innings baseball package is that I get the chance to consistently watch out of market teams. Sure, ESPN and FOX broadcast games every so often but I am a baseball junkie and need my fix just about every night. While recently utilizing the package to its fullest capacity, I came to the realization that the Florida Marlins have a really tall starting rotation. And I don’t mean tall in a relative form, as in tall compared to Jimmy Rollins, but tall in general.

Andrew Miller, one of the prized prospects acquired for Miguel Cabrera, is listed at 6’6″. Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad each check in at 6’7″. Lastly, Sean West, a recent callup whom Marc deemed the best pitching prospect in their farm system, stands a mighty 6’8″. These four guys, all of whom are currently full-time starters for the team, average 79.0 inches. Of course, pitchers like Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco weigh down the average, but it got me thinking – who were the tallest rotations in the Retrosheet era?

To be considered eligible for this study, a pitcher needed to make at least 10 starts in a season. Then, the averages were taken for all teams using all qualifying pitchers. The tallest average rotations of the last 55 years have been:

Seattle Mariners, 1993: 77.33 inches
Arizona Diamondbacks, 2008: 77.16 inches
Seattle Mariners, 1992: 77.15 inches
Cleveland Indians, 2003: 77.12 inches
Seattle Mariners, 1991: 77.05 inches

Incidentally, these were the only five teams with an average exceeding 77 inches, meaning that the average pitcher on their team to make at least 10 starts stood 6’5″. Randy Johnson clearly played a huge role in these rankings, even though I avoided using a weighted average. Johnson was a starter for all three of the Mariners teams as well as last year’s incarnation of the Diamondbacks.

In 1993, Johnson was joined by the 6’6″ Erik Hanson, so he at least had one tall compadre. The year before, Johnson and Hanson received height contributions from the 6’4″ Brian Fisher. In 1991, Johnson and Hanson were joined by the 6’5″ Bill Krueger and the 6’4″ Brian Holman.

The 2008 Diamondbacks featured all 6’10” of Johnson, 6’5″ from both Dan Haren and Micah Owings, and the 6’4″ Doug Davis. The 2003 Indians were led by the 6’7″ CC Sabathia but received plenty of starts from the 6’6″ Jason Davis and 6’5″ Jake Westbrook.

Interestingly, no team other than the 2008 Florida Marlins had four or more pitchers exceeding 6’5″ in a season in which they each made 10+ starts. Volstad, Johnson and Miller were there last season, but substitute Mark Hendrickson for Sean West. The Marlins might not have the tallest average, yet at least, but they certainly have the most tall pitchers consistently making starts over the last half-century.

The Graduate: Chris Volstad | Born: September 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Chris Volstad has always had a high profile as a former first round selection (16th overall) out of high school in 2005. He posted solid – but unspectacular – minor league numbers, mainly because of a low strikeout rates due to a reliance on the groundball. As he matures as a pitcher, he may strikeout more batters. Volstad allowed 193 hits in 168 2007 minor league innings, but rebounded to allow just 76 hits in 84.1 Major League innings. At 6-8 and 225 pounds, he has the body to be a workhorse for years to come and could be a more dominating Major League pitcher, than minor league, due to improved defence behind him.

The Riser: Logan Morrison | Born: August 1987 | First Baseman

I can hear the questions already: Why didn’t you pick Michael Stanton for ‘The Riser?’ Well, Stanton had an amazing year but he also had a higher prospect profile as a former second round pick. Logan Morrison, despite a pretty solid 2007 season in A-ball, was still underestimate by many at the beginning of 2008 – but no more. The former 22nd round selection, who spent the majority of the season as a 20-year-old in High-A ball, hit .332/.402/.494 in 488 at-bats. Average-wise, Morrison had a BABIP of .291 in 2007 and .377 in 2008, so his potential is probably somewhere in the middle. He also has impressive power and posted an ISO rate of .216 in 2007 and .162 in 2008.

The Tumbler: Brett Sinkbeil | Born: December 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Baseball is a funny game. Brett Sinkbeil was supposed to be the “safe college pick” to off-set a number of prep pitchers that were taken by the Marlins early on in the 2006 draft. Well, Sinkbeil spent the 2008 season scuffling in Double-A, while a number of those “risky picks” made it to Florida, including Chris Volstad and Ryan Tucker. Sinkbeil allowed 172 hits in 143.1 innings and posted rates of 3.20 BB/9 and 4.14 K/9.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Brad Hand | Born: March 1990 | Left-Handed Pitcher

While first round selection – and fellow prep pick – Kyle Skipworth struggled offensively in his debut, second rounder Brad Hand raised some eyebrows with his solid debut. He ended the season in the New York Penn League, which is mainly populated by college draft picks. Overall, Hand allowed 36 hits in 47.1 innings and posted rates of 4.00 BB/9 and 8.77 K/9. He already touches 93 mph, which is encouraging for a young lefty, and his secondary pitches show a lot of promise. Give Brad a hand (OK, I couldn’t resist).

The ’09 Sleeper: Jeff Allison | Born: November 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Josh Hamilton has shown that there is a possibility for a baseball life after drugs, and Jeff Allison is hoping to tell a similar story. The former 2003 first round selection appeared in just 25 games in five seasons while battling his demons. He returned for his first full pro season at the age of 23. His stuff is nowhere as dominating as it used to be but he battled on the mound while posting a 5.22 ERA in 120.2 innings. Allison allowed 122 hits, and posted rates of 4.25 BB/9 and 5.15 K/9. He is learning how to pitch without his best stuff.

Up Next: The Texas Rangers

The 2005 amateur draft was a college-heavy draft in the first round. Twenty of the first 30 picks came from college programs, and only five prep pitchers were chosen in the first 35 selections when also considering the supplemental first round.

Those five pitchers – Chris Volstad, Mark Pawelek, Aaron Thompson, Chaz Roe, and Ryan Tucker – have followed very different career paths in the last three seasons.

Volstad is the most accomplished of the group and currently has 56.1 Major League innings to his credit, all having come this season. He was also the first of the quintet to be drafted at 16th overall by Florida. The sinker-slider specialist spend about three seasons in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut in 2008. In 10 games, he has posted a 3.20 ERA with 53 hits allowed, 26 walks and 37 strikeouts. Low strikeout rates have plagued Volstad throughout his minor league career (6.20 K/9 career), but the 6’8” right-hander gets a good downward plane on the ball and induced two ground ball outs for every fly ball out this season at Double-A. His fastball can reach the mid-90s when he needs it to.

Pawelek is a sad story. Blessed with immense natural talent, the right-hander has rarely been motivated in pro ball and has been disciplined numerous times by the Chicago Cubs organization, which drafted him 20th overall in 2005. Pawelek was most recently sent home early for the season after failing to acquire a passport in a timely manner for a trip to Canada. Despite solid numbers in his first two pro seasons, Pawelek has spent parts of four seasons in short season ball. He may finally be out of chances with the Cubs.

Thompson was the second high school pitcher selected by the Marlins in the top 35 draft choices. He does not possess the same stuff as Volstad, but Thompson was considered more polished coming out of high school and had better command and control. However, he has not advanced quite as quickly as Volstad. The left-handed has struggled this year in Double-A by posting an ERA of 5.62 in 16 starts. He has allowed 111 hits in 81.2 innings to go along with 40 walks and 53 strikeouts. Thompson’s biggest problem is that when he’s off, he’s really off. In his last 10 starts, he has had four games where he has allowed 39 hits and 25 runs in 15.1 innings. He will look to make up for lost time with a stint in the Arizona Fall League.

Chaz Roe was nabbed with the 32nd overall pick by the Colorado Rockies. He has moved at a steady pace and spent most of the season at Double-A despite beginning the year in High-A ball. Like Thompson, Roe will also spend time pitching in the Arizona Fall League. In 16 Double-A starts, the 6’5” righty has allowed 98 hits and 34 walks in 105.1 innings. He has also struck out 70 batters. Like Volstad, Roe has yet to strike out a lot of batters, given his good stuff, but he does induce his fair share of ground balls (1.6 ground ball outs per fly ball outs) at Double-A.

Tucker was Mr. Dead Red coming out of high school. He had an excellent fastball but not a whole lot more. His fastball was good enough to dominate Double-A hitters this year, but not Major Leaguers. At the lower lever, Tucker posted a 1.58 ERA in 91 innings with 37 walks and 74 strikeouts. At the Major League level, Tucker has posted an 8.39 ERA with 42 hits allowed in 34.1 innings, along with 22 walks and 26 strikeouts. Major Leaguers have simply sat on his fastball, which is one of the reasons why some scouts have projected Tucker to be a big league reliever since his prep days.

It’s always fun to watch prospects diverge from a draft class.