Archive for chris withrow

The Dodgers will trot out a formidable wave of big league talent to take on the National League West in 2013 but the strength of the major league club comes at the expense of the minor league system. The organization has flipped its home-grown talent to acquire the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Hanley Ramirez. The new draft and international free agent rules will affect LA’s ability to over-pay for amateur talent but the club showed the ability to work within the new guidelines and had a solid 2012 amateur draft.

#1 Zach Lee (P)

Lee, 21, is an athletic pitcher who’s still learning to channel his raw skills to the mound and he doesn’t dominate as much as expected. The right-handed Texan split 2012 between high-A and double-A pitching a total of 121 innings.

He walked just 32 batters, displaying above-average control for his age, but also struck out just 103 batters because his secondary stuff – curveball, slider, changeup – has yet to fully develop. He offsets his lack of Ks with above-average ground ball numbers. A former star high school quarterback, Lee has moved quickly through the system and may need to spend all of 2013 in double-A before his ticket to L.A. is punched. Read the rest of this entry »

Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). After writing the first three lists, I realized there’s really no way to keep statistical information out of the equation completely and focus on scouting/projection alone. This has caused me to hedge my bets a bit on high ceiling talents and focus more on the complete player. Additionally, understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.

Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
The Second Basemen
The Third Basemen
The Shortstops
The Corner Outfielders
The Center Fielders

1. Domingo Tapia, New York Mets

Read the rest of this entry »

General Manager: Ned Colletti
Farm Director: De Jon Watson
Scouting Director: Logan White

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

1. Devaris Gordon, SS, Low-A
DOB: April 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Seminole Community College
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The son of long-time closer Tom ‘Flash’ Gordon, Dee is a speedy middle infielder with game-changing speed. The left-handed hitter stole 73 bases in 98 attempts this past season in low-A ball. He also showed some offensive potential with a line of .301/.362/.394 in 538 at-bats. Obviously the power is not there for him right now (.093 ISO) but he’s a valuable player even if he hits five homers in a season at the MLB level. His speed will help him turn a lot of singles into doubles and triples by moving up via the steal. His walk rate is OK for a top-of-the-order hitter, but it would be nice to see him break the 10% mark. The strikeout rate is acceptable at 16.7%. Gordon should be good enough at shortstop to remain there for the foreseeable future.

2. Ethan Martin, RHP, Low-A
DOB: June 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Martin’s first pro season was a success despite a rather high walk rate of 5.49 BB/9 in low-A. His walk rate was just 3.35 BB/9 while pitching with the lead so it may be a mental issue that he needs to overcome; his stuff is good enough that he doesn’t need to nibble in tight situations. The 20 year old posted a 3.45 FIP while allowing just 85 hits in 100.0 innings. The right-hander also tossed up a strikeout rate of 10.80 K/9. He also allowed just four homers (0.36 HR/9) despite a scary ground-ball rate just shy of 40%. Martin may not get away with so many fly balls at higher levels so he has some adjustments to make. Even so, he’s an exciting arm to watch in 2010.

3. Andrew Lambo, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 4th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

After tearing the minor leagues apart for much of the first two years of his career, Lambo hit a rough patch in double-A in ’09. He hit .256/.311/.407 in 492 at-bats, while playing much of the season as a 20 year old. The corner outfielder was not completely overpowered, though, and he posted a strikeout rate of just 19.3%, and his walk rate was a modest 7.2%. He possesses more raw power than what we witnessed by his .150 ISO last season (The 39 doubles are a good indication of that). Despite swinging from the left side, he showed better results against southpaws: .785 vs .690 OPS. Once he matures as a hitter, Lambo should be an offensive threat. Defensively, he’s an average-at-best fielder who may move permanently to first base.

4. Josh Lindblom, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Purdue University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, splitter, change-up

With good, but not great, results in the starting rotation, Lindblom was shifted to a relief role upon his promotion to triple-A in ’09. He started off the season in double-A where he allowed 55 hits in 57.1 innings of work. His strikeout rate was a respectable 7.22 K/9 and his FIP was 3.50 (4.71 ERA). In triple-A, he allowed 34 hits in 39.0 innings and his strikeout rate rose to 8.31 K/9. His walk rate was solid all year long at 2.20 in double-A and 2.77 in triple-A. The right-hander’s ground-ball rate was average. Lindblom projects to be more of a set-up man as opposed to a game-changing closer. He deserves another shot in the rotation.

5. Scott Elbert, LHP, Majors
DOB: August 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2004 1st round – Missouri HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

It seems like Elbert has been around forever, thanks to a long list of injuries and control issues. The southpaw, now 24, has spent parts of the past two seasons in the Majors and now appears poised to spend the bulk of the season in the Dodgers’ big-league bullpen. Elbert has a slightly-above-average fastball for a lefty and he pairs that with a solid breaking ball, which is death against left-handed batters (.162 batting average in the minors in ’09). He needs to cut down on his home-runs-allowed in the Majors (six in 25.2 innings) if he’s going to have success. Elbert is at worst a LOOGY, and at best a set-up man, but that’s a pretty steep drop from the potential he had coming out of high school.

6. Chris Withrow, RHP, Double-A
DOB: April 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Just 20, Withrow reached double-A in ’09 and should return there at least for the first half of 2010. The right-hander began the year in high-A where he made 19 appearances while posting a 2.96 FIP. He allowed 80 hits in 86.1 innings and showed rocky control with a walk rate of 4.69 BB/9. His strikeout rate, though, was good at 10.95 K/9 and he allowed just three homers despite a ground-ball rate below 40%. In double-A, Withrow’s walk rate improved to 3.95 BB/9 but his strikeout rate dropped to 8.56 K/9 and his ground-ball rate remained below 40%. His stuff isn’t electric and he projects as more of a No. 3 starter.

7. John Ely, RHP, Double-A
DOB: May 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Miami University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Despite jumping from high-A to double-A between ’08 and ’09, Ely showed improvements in a number of categories. The right-hander saw his batting-average-allowed drop from .257 to .241, his FIP went from 4.02 to 3.33 and his home-run rate slipped from 1.11 to 0.52 HR/9. Ely’s walk rate of 2.88 BB/9 was almost identical to his ’08 number, but his strikeout rate worsened from 8.30 to 7.20 K/9. The knock on Ely has been his lack of a consistent knock-out pitch. Despite his average stuff, the former Sox prospect could succeed at the Majors thanks to his good command and solid ground-ball rates (+50%).

8. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 10th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Signed as a raw prep athlete, Robinson took a big step forward in his development this past season. The outfielder repeated high-A ball but he hit a solid .306/.375/.500, thanks in part to a .391 BABIP. Although his strikeout rate remains high, he significantly improved his power output with his ISO going from .109 in ’08 to .194 in ’09. His walk rate just shy of 10%, which helped him get on base more often and he stole 43 bases in 61 tries (both career highs). Robinson received a 19-game taste of double-A and should return there in 2010. If his power spike is for real, he could develop into a 20-30 player at the MLB level.

9. Allen (Carl) Webster, RHP, Rookie
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 18th round – North Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

In just his second year removed from high school, Webster showed that he was a man amongst boys in rookie ball. The right-hander posted a FIP below 2.30 and he struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. His walk rate was also good for his age at less than 2.50 BB/9. He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park by allowing just one homer in 68.2 innings of work, despite an average ground-ball rate. Webster clearly got tired at the end of the season by allowing a batting average of .353 and a strikeout rate of just 5.25 K/9 in his last few starts. He’ll have to learn to pace himself even more in full-season ball in 2010.

10. Ivan DeJesus Jr., SS, Disable List
DOB: May 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 2nd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

There isn’t too much to say about DeJesus Jr’s ’09 season as it lasted just four games, thanks to a broken leg. Playing at double-A in ’08, he showed a good stick with a line of .324/.419/.423 in 463 at-bats. He has a good eye and walked 13.6% of the time. He also stole 16 bases in 18 tries but it remains to be seen how, if at all, the injury will affect his running. DeJesus owns a slick glove and should be the club’s shortstop of the future, unless Gordon has something to say about it.

Up Next: The Oakland Athletics

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Strikeouts Per 9 Innings (K/9) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among the three high-A leagues: the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League.

As with the high-A hitters, I want to add a caution with this league. The California League, is an extreme hitter’s league, so many of the pitchers’ numbers are more impressive than they appear. The Carolina League is also a difficult league to pitch in, although not quite as bad as the Cal League. The Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher’s league.

11.20- Chris Withrow, RHP, Los Angeles NL

Elbow soreness limited this former first-round pick to just four innings in 2008. His control has been off in 2009 (4.93 BB/9) but Withrow is still racking up the Ks. The 20-year-old has a 4.82 ERA, but his FIP is just 3.03. In 80.1 innings, he’s allowed 73 hits and just three homers.

10.24- Corey Kluber, RHP, San Diego

Kluber, 23, had a rough introduction to high-A in 2008 when he posted a 6.01 ERA (4.08 FIP) with 93 hits allowed in 85.1 innings of work. The right-hander was still a little too hittable in 2009 at the same level when he allowed 110 hits in 109 innings. Kluber did, though, post a strikeout rate of 10.24 K/9, as well as a walk rate of 2.97 BB/9. He’s now pitching in double-A, where he’s made just one start.

9.75- Connor Graham, RHP, Colorado

Graham has posted some good ERAs (and FIPs) in his first three minor-league seasons but his control has been less than impressive (5.07 BB/9 in ’08, 4.59 in ’09). This season he’s allowed just 68 hits in 80.1 innings of work, while also posting a strikeout rate of 9.75 K/9. With a mid-90s fastball and good slider (and not much else), Graham is probably a late-game reliever in the long run (a role he held in college).

2.58- Cory Luebke, LHP, San Diego

Luebke joins teammate Kluber on this list. Whereas Kluber was borderline old for the league, Luebke was certainly an over-ager at 24. The left-hander also struggled during his first taste of the California League in 2008 with a 6.84 ERA (3.93 FIP) and 97 hits allowed in 72.1 innings of work. This year, he allowed 73 hits in 88.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 1.73 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9. He’s now pitching in double-A with Kluber and has made three starts.

2.84- Jake Wild, RHP, Seattle

A senior sign out of college in 2007, Wild will be 25 in August so he’s definitely old for the league. He’s bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen in 2009, while showing good control (2.23 BB/9) and modest strikeout numbers (7.92 K/9). He’s been hittable with 104 hits allowed in 88.2 innings of work.

2.96- Joshua Collmenter, RHP, Arizona

The Diamondbacks organization really needs some prospects, so Arizona has to be encouraged with Collmenter’s season, even if he is 23 and pitching in high-A. The right-hander has allowed 87 hits in 104.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 2.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.06 K/9. The 6’4” 235 pound Collmenter has a big, strong pitcher’s frame and he has an outside shot of developing into a No. 4 starter.

9.92- Eammon Portice, RHP, Boston

The Boston organization is flush with prospects and Portice is one name that does not get a ton of attention, in part because he’s pitching in high-A at the age of 24. The right-hander has made 17 starts but he projects as a reliever in the Majors due to a his violent delivery and lack of a third reliable pitch. Portice has shown improved control and he induces a lot of groundballs when he’s sharp.

8.70- Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City

One of the most promising pitchers in the entire league, Duffy is just 20 years old. He’s allowed 83 hits in 90 innings, while posting a walk rate of 2.90 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.70 K/9. On the downside, his K rate has dropped each year of his three-year pro career, while his ERA (and FIP) has risen each season.

8.53- Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore

Like Boston, Baltimore is another organization that is rich in pitching depth and Britton often gets lost behind the likes of Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta. The southpaw, though, is extremely talented and has allowed just 87 hits in 101.1 innings of work. The 21-year-old hurler has allowed four homers. He has, though, struggled with his control a little bit (3.74 BB/9).

2.72- Bradley Meyers, RHP, Washington

Meyers was considered a possible supplemental first-round draft pick (in both high school and college) before his poor showing in his draft year of college. The Nationals got him in the fifth round and it’s taken him a little while to get acclimatized to professional baseball. Things have clicked for Meyers, 23, in 2009, and he allowed 71 hits in 88.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 2.14 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.62 K/9. He also had a 1.43 ERA (but 2.72 FIP) before his promotion to double-A, where he’s made just one start. He has a fastball that can touch 93 mph, a slider, and a changeup.

2.96- Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City

See Above.

3.06- Eammon Portice, RHP, Boston

See Above.

8.87- Evan Anundsen, RHP, Milwaukee

Anundsen has had one of the biggest jumps in value among any pitcher in high-A ball in 2009. The right-hander has seen his K rate jump by about 2 Ks per nine innings over his career norm, while also maintaining a solid walk rate (2.60). He’s also allowed just 67 hits in 93.1 innings of work. The right-hander is just 21 years of age.

8.75- David Newmann, LHP, Tampa Bay

Newmann was a fourth round pick coming out of college, but he did not get into game action after signing in 2007 and then he blew out his knee in the spring of 2008 and missed the entire season. As a result, the southpaw made his pro debut in 2009 at high-A ball. Considering the amount of time that he’s missed, you have to be impressed with his numbers, including his control at 3.67 K/9.

8.50- Darin Downs, LHP, Tampa Bay

A former Cubs prospect, Downs has seen his walk rate improve significantly (1.77 BB/9) over his 2008 season, when he posted a rate of 6.17 BB/9 in 22 double-A games. The left-hander has been too hittable with 104 hits allowed in 101.2 innings and he’s also 24 years old.

2.39- Evan Anundsen, RHP, Milwaukee

See Above.

2.57- Jose Rosario, RHP, Florida

Rosario is 23 years of age and he’s having his first successful season in pro ball since coming over to North America from the Dominican Republic. The right-hander has shown excellent control with a walk rate of 1.59 BB/9. He also has a strikeout rate of 7.75 K/9 and has allowed just two homers on the year. Rosario, though, is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who has been aided by the big parks.

2.76- Lance Pendleton, RHP, New York AL

Pendleton was a fourth round pick out of Rice University in 2005, but he missed almost all of the 2006 and 2007 seasons with injuries (surprise, surprise). The right-hander has looked good this season, but he’s also turning 26 in September. He has walk rate of 2.76 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.65 K/9. At best, he profiles as a middle reliever in the Majors.

2008 Draft Slot: 15th overall
Top Pick: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia high school
Best Pick: Ethan Martin
Keep an Eye On: Devaris Gordon, SS, Florida community college (4th round)
Notes: The club nabbed a number of interesting names outside of the first round including RHP Josh Lindblom (2nd), OF Kyle Russell (3rd), Tom Gordon’s son SS Devaris Gordon (4th), IF Tony Delmonico (6th) and LHP Cole St. Clair (7th). Lindblom is already in double-A despite a slow start to the season. Russell has some mammoth raw power but he strikes out a lot (more than 30% in pro ball). He’s maintained a good average so far thanks to very high (and unsustainable) BABIP rates. Gordon has a career .300 average and has already stolen 29 bases so far this season in low-A ball. He’s not showing enough patience at the plate, but his ceiling is looking higher than many thought it would be. Delmonico is hitting well in pro ball, but his development has been slowed with a move behind the plate. At one point, St. Clair was a potential No. 1 draft pick but he’s a pitcher that attended Rice University… In other words, he’s hurt a lot. Martin is struggling with his control in low-A ball, but he’s putting up some nice numbers for a recent pick that was a two-way player in high school.

2007 Draft Slot: 20th overall
Top Pick: Chris Withrow, RHP, Texas high school
Best Pick: Andrew Lambo, OF/1B, California high school (4th round)
Worst Pick: James Adkins, LHP, University of Tennessee (Supplemental first round)
Notes: There were some concerns with Andrew Lambo’s makeup, but his bat has done most of his talking in pro ball and the outfielder is already in double-A at the age of 20. RHP Kyle Blair slipped in the draft due to signability and he went to the University of San Diego, where he’s developing nicely and could be a 2010 first round pick if the upward trend continues. Chris Withrow has been slowed by some injuries, as well as some control issues. James Adkins has been a disappointment to this point due mostly to too many hits allowed (9.9 H/9 in his pro career) and too few strikeouts (4.31 K/9 in 2009 at double-A).

2006 Draft Slot: 7th overall
Top Pick: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Texas high school
Best Pick: Clayton Kershaw
Worst Pick: Preston Mattingly, SS, Indiana high school (Supplemental first round)
Notes: It’s hard to argue with Clayton Kershaw being the best Dodger pick in this draft. The high school draftee is already taking a regular turn in the club’s rotation. The organization’s second first-round pick, Bryan Morris, was sent to Boston for Manny Ramirez. After two lackluster low-A seasons, Preston Mattingly (Supplemental first round) is showing some signs of life in high-A. He is, though, not walking enough (2.8 BB%) and striking out too much (35 K%). He might develop into a utility player. The Dodgers’ activity in the free agent market led to the loss of the club’s second and third round selections. Unsigned 14th round pick RHP Alex White (North Carolina high school) could be a first rounder in 2009.

2009 Draft Slot: 36th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Prep players, often pitchers
MLB Club Need: Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Left-handed pitching, Left field, Second base
Organizational Strength: Shortstop, Third base
Notes: The Dodgers organization gave up its first round pick to the Arizona Diamondbacks for signing free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. The club probably does not regret the decision one bit. The Dodgers picked up a supplemental first round pick (36th overall) for losing Derek Lowe to Atlanta. The organization also has two picks in the second round – its original selection (65th), plus the Braves’ second round pick (56th) for the Lowe signing). The organization loves to grab prep players – especially pitchers.