Archive for Clay Buchholz

According to a report on Yahoo, the Boston Red Sox organization has offered the Toronto Blue Jays a very competitive package for ace starter Roy Halladay. According to the site, Boston offered young starters Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, as well as 19-year-old outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.

Frankly, I like that much better than the rumored offer from the Philadelphia Phillies that included young hurler J.A. Happ, starter Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald, and outfielder Michael Taylor. Frankly, the only player in that deal that does anything for me is Taylor. You have to wonder how the Phillies organization can justify holding back its best prospects for one of the Top 5 pitchers in all of baseball and perhaps the most consistent in the past five years?

If I were the Jays, I would not do a deal with Philly without double-A pitching prospect Kyle Drabek and high-A outfielder Dominic Brown. The Phillies’ deal is almost insulting: a MLB pitcher currently playing over his ceiling, a pitching prospect who has regressed in the past two seasons, a shortstop who is an average hitter at best and may need to move to second base, as well as Taylor.

However, even a deal including Drabek and Brown would not appeal to me as much as Boston’s rumored offer of two MLB-ready, young pitchers and a talented (but inexperienced) young outfielder. If the Sox tossed in MLB infielder Jed Lowrie, outfielder Josh Reddick or right-hander Junichi Tazawa, I would probably scream, “Sold!” The organization refuses to trade SS/RHP prospect Casey Kelly and MLB reliever Daniel Bard, and I can respect that; the other players that Boston is offering are much better than those being suggested by Philly.

Forget about dealing within the division. Toronto needs to get the best deal possible for Halladay, and that could very well come from Boston.

With a pitching staff overflowing with the likes of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Tim Wakefield (as well as the injured Daisuke Matsuzaka), the Boston Red Sox club has a plethora of options for the starting rotation. And there is more on the way. Let’s update the “disgusting” (ie. enviable) starting pitcher depth in the minor league system:

Clay Buchholz: Doomed by a poor 2008 season, this 24-year-old hurler has turned things around in 2009 but the organization lacks a spot for him at the Major League level. Buchholz has a 2.11 ERA (3.26 FIP) in 93.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed just 59 hits, while posting a walk rate of 2.79 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.26 K/9. Right-handed hitters are managing a batting average of just .130 against Buchholz.

Michael Bowden: Like Buchholz, this 22-year-old right-hander would probably be pitching in the Majors for just about any other big league organization. In 16 triple-A starts, Bowden has an ERA of 3.32 (4.49 FIP) and he’s allowed 70 hits in 81.1 innings, while posting rates of 3.43 BB/9 and 5.98 K/9. He’s not flashy, but he has the potential to be a solid No. 3 starter.

Felix Doubront: This 21-year-old southpaw from Venezuela is not talked about as much as some of the other pitchers in the system, but you cannot ignore his potential. Doubront has a 3.71 ERA (3.93 FIP) in 15 double-A starts. He’s been a little too hittable with 64 hits allowed in 63 innings and he has a walk rate of 4.14 BB/9, but his strikeout rates have increased as he’s climbed the organizational ladder. With a little more command and control, Doubront could vault into the upper echelon of Boston pitching prospects.

Junichi Tazawa: Tazawa received a fair bit of press this past off-season as a highly-regarded Japanese amateur free agent. Boston payed a pretty penny for the right-hander, but he’s more than justified the contract with an excellent season in double-A. Tazawa has allowed 72 hits in 87 innings of work while posting a walk rate of 2.59 BB/9. He also has a strikeout rate of 8.17 K/9, while adjusting to life in North America. Tazawa has been particularly tough with runners in scoring position (.163 average, compared to .246 with the bases empty).

Casey Kelly: Things were not supposed to go quite this easily for Kelly. The 19-year-old doesn’t even want to be a pitcher; the former two-way prep prospect would much rather play everyday at shortstop. The organization agreed to let Kelly play shortstop in 2009 if he first pitched about 100 innings on the season. With 95 innings pitched, he’s about to leave the mound behind for 2009, but Kelly has excited just about everyone with his potential as a pitcher. He blew threw low-A with a 1.12 ERA (2.14 FIP) in nine starts. In eight high-A starts, Kelly has allowed 33 hits in 46.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 1.35 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.75 K/9. Kelly has a healthy groundball rate at 53%. If you’re the Boston management, you have to cross your fingers and pray that Kelly sucks big time with the stick so he’ll turn his attention back to pitching.

And Don’t forget about: Kyle Weiland, Nick Hagadone, Stolmy Pimentel, Brock Huntzinger, and Stephen Fife.

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore, or second-year, players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the American League East division. Yesterday, we looked at the American League Central.

Ian Kennedy came into the Yankees’ system with a reputation of being a pretty good college pitcher, but he was not quite as highly regarded as he had been coming out of high school (in part because he lost a little bit off the fastball). Despite some grumblings that Kennedy had been an overdraft as a first-round draft pick, the right-hander dominated the minor leagues (He has a career 1.96 ERA in the minors). There is a reason, though, that they call it the “Major Leagues” and Kennedy was hit around in 2008. He posted an 8.17 ERA and allowed 50 hits in just 39.2 innings or work. His walk rate, which was 2.8 BB/9 in the minors, jumped to 5.90 BB/9. Kennedy got off to a solid start in 2009 in four games at triple-A but he then underwent surgery for an aneurysm under his right armpit and will be out until after the All-Star break.

Like Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain was a pretty good college pitcher but he had injuries problems and other teams shied away from him. Big mistake. The Yankees took a risk and have one of the top young arms in baseball, although Chamberlain has still had a few injuries throughout his pro career. In 2008, the right-hander spent time in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. He allowed just 87 hits in 100.1 innings, while posting a 2.60 ERA (2.65 FIP). Chamberlain also posted an excellent strikeout rate at 10.58 K/9. In 2009, he has continued to pitch well, although he has not been as dominant. He has a 3.86 ERA (4.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 63.1 innings of work. His walk rate has risen from 3.50 in 2008 to 4.69 BB/9 in 2009. His strikeout rate has decreased to 8.24 K/9. Chamberlain’s average fastball velocity has decreased each of the past three seasons, from 97 to 95 to 92.4 mph, although part of that can be attributed to spending more time in the starting rotation.

Both Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez came out of almost nowhere in 2008 to provide much-needed innings for the Yankees’ bullpen. Veras, now 28, allowed 52 hits in 57.2 innings and had a strikeout rate of 9.83 K/9. However, he was just designated for assignment after posting a 5.96 ERA in 2009 and seeing his strikeout rate drop to 6.31 K/9, while also struggling with his control and gopher ball tendencies. Ramirez, also 28, had a 3.90 ERA in 2008 and posted a 3.90 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of 10.25 K/9. In 2009, though, he’s regressed to a 5.19 ERA, and rates of 7.79 BB/9 and 8.31 K/9.

As far as first-round picks go, David Purcey has been a huge disappointment. Making his MLB debut at the age of 26, the left-hander posted a 5.54 ERA and allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work, although he showed some improvements as the year progressed. His rates were 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. In 2009, he won an opening-day rotation spot but made just five starts before a demotion to triple-A. In those starts, Purcey allowed a 7.01 ERA, 28 hits in 25.2 innings and posted rates of 6.31 BB/9 and 9.12 K/9.

Southpaw Jesse Carlson was a revelation in 2008 and appeared in 69 games as a rookie. He posted a 2.25 ERA (3.80 FIP) and allowed just 41 hits in 60 innings of work. In 2009, though, Carlson’s ERA has risen to 5.22 (although his FIP is just 3.80) and he’s allowed 31 hits in 29.1 innings. His control is OK (3.15 BB/9 in 2008, 2.76 in 2009) but he hasn’t had the same command of his pitches and his strikeout rate has dropped from 8.25 K/9 in 2008 to 5.83 K/9 this season.

Radhames Liz has a blistering fastball but he’s just one more hard-throwing pitcher that has no idea how to pitch (Daniel Cabrera, anyone?). Liz, 26, was promoted to the Majors in 2008 by the pitching-poor Orioles and was coming off a good half season in the minors, as well as a very good 2007 season at double-A. Liz allowed 99 hits in 84.1 innings, while also posting a 6.72 ERA. He posted rates of 5.44 BB/9 and 6.08 K/9. So far this year, Liz has a 6.09 ERA in triple-A and has a 67.50 ERA in two relief appearances in the Majors. Velocity is not everything.

Another hard thrower, Dennis Sarfate appeared in 57 games for the Orioles as a rookie in 2008. He allowed just 62 hits in 79.2 innings of work and posted rates of 7.00 BB/9 and 9.72 K/9. Sarfate, 28, appeared in just eight games in 2009 and posted an ERA of 6.39 before going on the disabled list with circulation problems in his finger. Right-hander Jim Johnson was also a major contributor to the 2008 bullpen as a rookie. He posted a 2.23 ERA (3.38 FIP) while allowing 54 hits in 68.2 innings of work. In 2009, Johnson, 25, has continued to have success with a 3.07 ERA (3.83 FIP) and 28 hits allowed in 29.1 innings. His strikeout rate has actually risen from 4.98 K/9 in 2008 to 6.14 K/9 in 2009.

A sinker-slider pitcher, Justin Masterson has bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen for the Red Sox during the past two seasons with good success in both roles. The right-hander induces a lot of groundballs and gets his fair share of strikeouts in the process. He posted a 3.16 ERA (4.69 FIP) while allowing 68 hits in 88.1 innings of work in 2008. In 2009, the 24 year old has a 3.88 ERA (3.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 53.1 innings. Masterson has also seen his BABIP allowed increase from .243 in 2008 to .332 in 2009. His walk rate has decreased from 4.08 in 2008 to 3.04 BB/9 this season.

Clay Buchholz burst upon the scene in 2007 but struggled during his rookie season in 2008 by allowing 93 hits in 76 innings of work. He posted a 6.75 ERA and posted a strikeout rate of 4.86 BB/9. He’s really turned things around in triple-A this season, although there is no opening in the Red Sox Major League rotation. Buchholz has a 1.75 ERA (3.27 FIP) in triple-A with 40 hits allowed in 67 innings. His walk rate is just 2.01 BB/9.

Jed Lowrie did a nice job as an injury replacement in 2008 for the Red Sox. He had a triple-slash line of .258/.339/.400 with two homers in 260 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 26.2 K% was a little high for an infielder with modest pop, but he filled in at three positions and provided solid defense. After just five games in 2009 Lowrie required wrist surgery. He’s currently rehabbing.

It was hard for Jacoby Ellsbury to build off his debut in 2007, but he had a solid – albeit unspectacular – first full season in Majors in 2008. He hit .280/.336/.394 with 50 stolen bases in 61 attempts. Ellsbury’s triple-slash line in 2009 is .306/.351/.383 and he’s stolen 25 bases in 31 attempts. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 14.4 to 8.9 K/9, while maintaining almost the same walk rate at 6.1 BB%. Ellsbury is proving to be a very solid player, but he’s probably not a star.

Evan Longoria had a huge 2008 season and won the American League Rookie of the Year award. He produced a triple-slash line of .272/.343/.531 and hit 27 home runs. So far this year, Longoria has been even better with a line of .305/.387/.584 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI. His walk rate has increased from 9.3 in 2008 to 11.4 BB% in 2009. His strikeout rate has stayed almost the same at 26.5 K%. Longoria also plays a solid third base. He should be a mainstay in the Rays lineup for many years to come.

Matt Joyce spent the 2008 season with Detroit and hit .252/.339/.510 with 12 homers in 242 at-bats. Traded to Tampa Bay for Edwin Jackson prior to the 2009 season, Joyce, 24, has regressed and has spent most of the season in triple-A. Jackson, though, has had a breakout season for Detroit.

The Graduate: Justin Masterson | Born: March 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

He’s not flashy – but Justin Masterson has the potential to be a beast coming out of the bullpen. The right-hander’s fastball averages out at 89.5 mph but it has incredible sink on it, which causes batters to consistently beat balls into the dirt. In 2008, Masterson allowed just 68 hits in 88.1 innings, along with rates of 4.08 BB/9 and 6.93 K/9. Although he started nine games, the right-hander is better suited for bullpen work where he can focus on his sinking fastball and slider. He used his change-up at the Major League level just 3.1% of the time. Once he cleans up his control, Masterson should really take off.

The Riser: Daniel Bard | Born: June 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Daniel Bard had a horrible 2007 season, which included a 6.42 ERA in A-ball and 56 walks allowed in 61.2 innings. He completely turned things around, though, in 2008 with a shift from starting to relieving. Bard began the year back in A-ball and allowed just 12 hits and four walks in 28 innings. He then moved up to Double-A where he allowed 30 hits in 49.2 innings with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. The control was obviously a little shaky at Double-A, but the potential is there to be a dominating eighth-inning reliever (and eventual closer) with a high-90s fastball and a slider.

The Tumbler: Clay Buchholz | Born: August 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Expectations were high at the beginning of 2008 for Clay Buchholz after he threw the 17th no-hitter in Red Sox history on September 1, 2007 (in just his second big league start). Buchholz, though, ended up back at Double-A in 2008 after posting a 6.75 ERA for the Major League club. He allowed 93 hits in 76 innings and posted rates of 4.86 BB/9 and 8.53 K/9. His fastball velocity was the same as 2007 and he allowed more ground balls but his command suffered, his pitches had less movement and batters made better contact against him (up five percent over 2007). The potential is still there, but Buchholz is in danger of being passed by other pitching prospect in a strong Red Sox system.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Derrik Gibson | Born: December 1989 | Shortstop

A third-round selection out of high school in 2008, Derrik Gibson had an impressive debut by hitting .309/.398/.394 with 14 stolen bases in 94 at-bats. He also earned a 14-game promotion to A-ball where he struggled and hit .086 (His BABIP was .125). Gibson does not possess much power at this point but he stole 16 bases in 2008 in as many attempts and also showed a good eye at the plate with a walk rate of 14 percent. He has the potential to be a solid top-of-the-order threat.

The ’09 Sleeper: Nick Hagadone | Born: January 1986 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Nick Hagadone appeared in just three games in 2008 thanks to Tommy John surgery. He showcased his immense talent in those three games by allowing just five hits and striking out 12 in 10 innings. He also dominated in his pro debut in 2007 with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and an excellent slider. Hagadone could be another dominating late-game reliever or he could find success as a starter if he can improve his change-up. He should be fully recovered from surgery by spring and could begin the year in High-A ball.

Up Next: The San Francisco Giants

Michael Bowden was a supplemental first round pick of Boston’s in 2005 out of an Illinois high school. The right-hander does not get the press that some of Boston’s other prospects do, but he could very well spend a significant period of time in the Major Leagues in 2009.

He currently projects as a third or fourth starter with an 88-92 mph fastball. During a one-game stint in Boston earlier this season, Bowden also flashed a solid change-up and curveball. He held the White Sox to two runs in five innings after allowing seven hits and a walk, to go along with three strikeouts. He worked up in the strike zone a little too much and induced just three ground balls, along with 11 fly balls and four line drives.

While at Double-A earlier in the year, Bowden posted a 2.33 ERA and allowed just 72 hits in 104.1 innings. He walked 24 batters (2.07 BB/9) and struck out 101 (8.71 K/9). Promoted to Triple-A, he allowed 40 hits in as many innings and walked five (1.13 BB/9). He struck out 29 (6.53 K/9). At both levels, Bowden also struggled with allowing too many fly balls although homers were more of an issue at Triple-A (1.13 HR/9), than Double-A (0.43 HR/9).

Despite some minor struggles, Bowden has positioned himself to receive consideration for a spot in Boston’s starting rotation in 2009, especially if Clay Buchholz continues to struggle.