Archive for Clayton Mortensen

Trade Deadline Prospects Ranked, Part 4

by
August 6, 2009

At the expiration of the Major League Baseball trading deadline, 35 prospects had changed hands (beginning July 19 with Milwaukee’s acquisition of Felipe Lopez). Over the next week, FanGraphs will take a look at each prospect, while also ranking them individually in value from 35 down to one. Players such as Justin Masterson, Clayton Richard, Kevin Hart, and Jeff Clement were not considered in this list because they have expired their rookie eligibility. However, they can still technically be considered “prospects” because they are young and have yet to establish themselves at the MLB level.

We’ve already taken a look at prospects 35-15 on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

  • 14. Steve Johnson, RHP
    From Los Angeles NL to Baltimore

    It’s been a slow climb through the minors for Johnson. The former high school drafted pick has struggled with his command and control throughout his career. He’s also working hard to improve his secondary pitches. Johnson spent the majority of his time in the Dodgers’ system this year at high-A, where he allowed 94 hits in 96.2 innings. He also posted rates of 3.91 BB/9 and 9.50 K/9. Prior to the trade, the right-hander made two double-A starts. His stuff would probably be better coming out of the bullpen (He can occasionally hit 93 mph as a starter), where he could focus on one secondary pitch to go with the heater. His ceiling is that of a set-up man or No. 4 starter.

  • 13. Clayton Mortensen, RHP
    From St. Louis to Oakland

    Mortensen, 24, was a supplemental first round draft pick back in 2007 by the St. Louis Cardinals. He doesn’t have star potential, but the right-handed sinker/slider pitcher could be a valuable No. 3 or 4 starter for the Oakland Athletics. In 17 triple-A starts for the Cardinals organization in 2009, Mortensen allowed 103 hits in 105 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 2.91 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.03 K/9 – both of which represented significant upgrades over his rates in 15 triple-A appearances in 2008. Since coming over to Oakland’s system, Mortensen has made two starts. He’s allowed nine hits in 11 innings, but he’s also walked seven. An improved changeup could definitely benefit Mortensen, who struggles against left-handed hitter (.303 career average vs LH hitters, .225 vs RHs).

  • 12. Bryan Price, RHP
    From Boston to Cleveland

    The trade from Boston to Cleveland could really benefit Price, who was blocked by a number of other talented starting pitchers in his former organization. The right-hander began the year in low-A where he allowed 37 hits in 44 innings of work and posted solid walk and strikeout rates. Promoted to high-A, Price’s ERA rose from 2.45 to 6.54 but his FIP was a solid 3.22. The Texan allowed 62 hits in 52.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 3.27 and a strikeout rate of 9.80. He had a nice debut in the Cleveland system with six shutout innings in high-A. Price’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 95 mph, a plus slider and a changeup. A reliever in college, he has a chance to be a solid No. 3 starter in the Majors.

  • 11. Scott Barnes, LHP
    From San Francisco to Cleveland

    Barnes is rated a little higher here than many people might expect, but you have to appreciate what he’s done in a very short period of time. The southpaw was nabbed in the eighth round of the 2008 draft out of college after flying under the radar. He had a dominating debut and continued to pitch well in ’09 despite jumping up to high-A in a very good hitter’s league. In 98 innings with the Giants’ club, Barnes allowed 82 hits and posted a walk rate of 2.66 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.09 K/9. He’s handled right-handed hitters very well in his career with a batting average allowed of just .207 (.224 vs LH hitters). Barnes has a very good changeup and deception in his delivery. His fastball works in the upper 80s, but he can touch 91-92 mph. If his curveball can improve a little more, Barnes could very well end up as the steal of the trade deadline.

  • 10. Josh Roenicke, RHP
    From Cincinnati to Toronto

    Roenicke has more MLB experience than any other player on this list and he immediately slid into the Toronto bullpen after the trade. A late bloomer who was 23 years old when he was drafted out of UCLA, the right-hander has a big-time fastball that can touch 99 but sits around 94 mph. He also utilizes a cutter and a slider. Roenicke has the potential to be the Jays’ closer of the future, especially if he can gain more consistency with his control. In 28 triple-A innings in 2009, Roenicke allowed 30 hits while posting a walk rate of 1.93 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 10.28 K/9. In 15.1 big-league innings, he’s allowed 16 hits, seven walks and 18 Ks. He has yet to allow a homer this year and has allowed just six in 159 pro innings. Roenicke’s younger brother Jason also pitches in the Jays’ system and the family is familiar with Canada, as father Gary played briefly with the Expos.

  • 9. Lou Marson, C
    From Philadelphia to Cleveland

    Marson’s value has taken a bit of a hit in 2009. He’s shown that he can consistently hit for average but the right-handed hitter has struggled to hit the ball with authority. Scouts were already knocking the catcher for his lack of power prior to 2009, but his ISO has dropped from .120 in ’07 to .102 to .076 in ’09. He’s hit just one homer and 14 doubles this year in 228 at-bats. On the plus side, he continues to get on base via the walk (12.4 BB%) and keeps the strikeouts to a minimum (19.0 K%). With Carlos Santana already established as the catcher of the future in Cleveland, Marson is headed for a back-up role if he’s not traded again.

  • 8. Zach Stewart, RHP
    From Cincinnati to Toronto

    The trade of veteran third baseman Scott Rolen to Cincinnati still has people shaking their heads. Not only did the Jays shed salary and pick up a potential closer in Roenicke but the Reds also surrendered Stewart, who was the club’s third round draft pick in 2008. The right-handed former college closer has seen his value rise significantly in 2009 as he’s shown the ability to stick in the starting rotation. Stewart began the year in high-A ball where he allowed 47 hits in 42.1 innings of work. He then moved up to double-A where he allowed 29 hits in 37 innings of work and posted a walk rate of 2.43 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.54 K/9. Cincinnati then promoted him to triple-A where he moved back to the bullpen in anticipation of him helping out at the MLB level late in ’09, if needed. The 22-year-old allowed 11 hits and eight walks in 12.1 innings of work while also striking out 16 batters. Toronto has committed to moving him back to the starting rotation, although that may not occur until 2010 (which would help control his innings total for the year).

    Check back tomorrow for the Top 7 prospects traded at the deadline.


    • Oakland Takes a Second Holliday

    by
    July 28, 2009

    Yesterday, I took a look at the two Mark DeRosa trades that Cleveland was involved in, both of which occurred within the last year. As a result, it got me thinking about the two Matt Holliday trades that also both occurred in roughly the same time period (Both DeRosa and Holliday oddly ended up with St. Louis). I was curious to see if Oakland came out on the plus side of both Holliday deals or not.

    Dave Cameron and Erik Manning have both done a nice job of dissecting the Holliday trade to St. Louis, so I am not going to dwell too deeply on the trade itself. For those of you who don’t know by now, though, the Oakland Athletics received 3B/1B Brett Wallace, OF Shane Peterson, and RHP Clayton Mortensen. Wallace was St. Louis’ first-round draft pick in 2008 (13th overall), while Peterson (59th in ’08) and Mortensen (36th in ’07) were also highly regarded in college. All three players have seen their values increase since signing their initial pro contracts with the Cardinals organization.

    Back on Nov. 10, 2008, Oakland general manager Billy Beane shocked baseball by acquiring Holliday from Colorado. The move was especially curious because Oakland was expected to be in rebuilding mode in 2009 and money is always an issue with the organization (The outfielder had a $13.5 million contract for 2009). But Beane obviously saw a chance to buy low (in his eyes) on a talented outfielder who could help the club contend sooner than expected in a weak American League West division. At worst, the A’s would end up with two high draft picks as compensation when Holliday headed for greener pastures as a free agent at the end of the ’09 season.

    In exchange for Holliday, Oakland sent deposed closer Huston Street, left-handed starter Greg Smith, and the talented-but-frustrating young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to Colorado. Street has had a resurgence in the National League after seeing his numbers decline in his fourth season with Oakland. In 2008, he posted a 3.47 FIP. Street allowed just 58 hits in 70 innings of work, but his walk rate increased more than one walk per nine innings over his career average to 3.47 BB/9. His strikeout rate also dropped from 11.34 in 2007 to 8.87 K/9 in 2008 (although this was a number closer to his rates in 05-06).

    In Colorado in ’09, batters are hitting just .195 against the 25-year-old right-hander, which is the lowest batting-average-against that Street has posted since his rookie year in ’05 (.194 average). His strikeout rate is up to 10.20 K/9, while his walk rate is back down to 2.13 BB/9. Street’s line-drive rate is also down about three percent. His fastball is almost 2 mph harder than it was in 2007-08.

    Smith, meanwhile, has had a terrible season filled with inconsistencies and injuries. After making 32 starts and pitching 190.1 innings in his rookie season for Oakland in 2008, the left-hander has yet to appear in a big-league game this year. The former sixth-round draft pick (by Arizona) has made just five triple-A starts, while also appearing in both high-A and double-A while on rehab. In his five triple-A starts, Smith has allowed 20 hits and eight walks in 23 innings of work. He also has a 5.50 FIP and has allowed four homers. Even as his rather successful 2008 campaign came to a close, a lot of baseball watchers were crying, “Fluke!”

    Still only 23, Gonzalez has spent most of the 2009 season in triple-A after spending the majority of ’08 in the Majors with Oakland, where he hit a disappointing .242/.273/.361 in 302 at-bats. This year, the left-handed hitter has batted .339/.418/.630 with 10 homers in 192 at-bats. Recently recalled to Colorado, he is hitting .225/.288/.373 with one homer and seven steals in 102 at-bats. Gonzalez’ poor approach at the plate (and lack of patience) has played a large part in his weak MLB numbers.

    Colorado really did not get as much value for Holliday as it likely had hoped. The organization received a solid, young closer with a lot of experience, a future left-handed reliever, and a toolsy young outfielder that is looking more Delmon Young than Justin Upton. With that said, comparing the three players that Oakland received for Holliday and the three players that the organization gave up for Holliday, it looks pretty even at this point especially when you consider how Street’s stability in the bullpen has helped Colorado remain in the playoff hunt.

    Wallace, though, has the potential to significantly overshadow the loss of Street if he can live up to his potential, but that could take a few years. Even so, you have to figure that a lot of organizations would trade Street for Wallace, straight up. Trading Smith and Gonzalez for Peterson and Mortensen is a bit of a toss up, and really depends on how much you believe in Gonzalez. If he reaches his potential, he could be an impact player. Both Peterson and Mortensen look like complementary parts, but they should both end up being more valuable than Smith.

    In the end, it’s hard to say if Oakland came out on the winning end of the two Holliday deals or not. In the long run, though, my gut says that they did.


    More Than Just Throw-ins

    by
    July 27, 2009

    Billy Beane said he wanted the equivalent of two-first round draft picks in order to trade Matt Holliday. Asking price paid. Not only did Oakland pry Brett Wallace away from St. Louis, but two other solid prospects in RHP Clayton Mortensen and OF Shane Peterson.

    Drafted in the 2007 draft 36th overall as a senior out of Gonzaga, Mortensen came with more projectability and less polish than your typical college pitcher. Despite that, Mortensen found himself pitching in Triple-A just a year after he was drafted. Tall and gangly at 6-4, 180 pounds, the Cardinals loved his 90-93 MPH sinker. This past season 55% of the balls his opponents put in play were of the worm burning variety. Mortensen struggled with walks (4.73 BB/9) and homers (1.35 HR/9) but this year he’s improved his control (2.91 BB/9). Mortensen has two average secondary pitches that have shown above average potential at times – a slider that he throws to right-handers and a change-up to lefties. He looks more like a back-end starter right now, but as he tightens up his secondary offerings, he has #3 potential.

    Shane Peterson was the 59th overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Long Beach State and it’s easy to see his appeal to results-oriented drafting teams like St. Louis and Oakland — amongst other things, he posted a .506 on-base percentage his junior year. Peterson has odd looking hitting mechanics. He’s a front foot hitter, but he has good bat speed and a high finish that helps him get a little bit of loft. He plays first base and can play any outfield position, but his lack of range makes him better suited for a corner spot. Peterson walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances for short-season Batavia, while also striking out nearly a third of them. This season he’s cut down on the K’s but also the walks that he was known for in college; his walk rate has hovered around the 6%-7% all season. Because of his funky hitting approach, he doesn’t hit for much power and he has the career.124 ISO in the minors to prove it. Scouts see him more as a 4th outfielder, but it looks like Oakland will try him in center. If he prove that he can stick there, his bat could have some value.


    More Cards From the Deck

    by
    July 18, 2008

    We’ve been looking at the St. Louis Cardinals’ minor league system this week and have highlighted some interesting prospects, including top pitching prospects like Jess Todd and Adam Ottavino. As we all know, pitching is a highly-sought-after commodity in Major League Baseball and the St. Louis organization has its fair share of arms that have yet to make an appearance in the big leagues, including Clayton Mortensen and P.J. Walters.

    Mortensen was the organization’s supplemental first round selection out of Gonzaga University in 2007. The sinker/slider pitcher has a low 90s fastball, but it’s his ability to keep the ball on the ground that really improves his prospect status. Prior to 2008, Mortensen had a ground-out-to-air-out ration higher than 3.00. So far this season he has a ratio of 2.08 over two minor league stops. He began the season in Double-A and allowed 59 hits in 59 innings with 22 walks and 48 strikeouts. Mortensen was promoted to Triple-A and has allowed 42 hits in 41 innings with 21 walks and 25 strikeouts. Despite his solid stuff, Mortensen’s numbers have just been OK this season, which might suggest a move to the bullpen is in his future, unless he can significantly improve his third pitch – a change-up (which might also help against left-handed batters who are collectively hitting .342 against him).

    Walters also began his season in Double-A before a promotion to Triple-A. At Springfield, Walters allowed 35 hits in 36 innings with eight walks and 34 strikeouts. He also allowed five home runs. After a promotion to Memphis, Walters has allowed 81 hits in 72 innings with 31 walks and 70 strikeouts. Walters was originally an 11th round selection out of the University of South Alabama in 2006. The right-hander’s fastball sits around the mid- to high-80s but he features a trick pitch, which is a cross between a change-up and a screwball. His breaking ball is a below average pitch, which significantly clouds his future outlook as a starting pitcher. You cannot count Walters out, though, as he is succeeding in Triple-A in just his second full minor league season.