Archive for Clayton Tanner

General Manager: Brian Sabean
Farm Director: Fred Stanley
Scouting Director: John Barr

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The system has a couple monster prospects at the top of the list but the middle tier is pretty impressive too. Things drop off a bit after the seventh man on the list but all 10 prospects have a good chance of contributing to a big league team before too long.

1. Buster Posey, C, Majors
DOB: March 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida State University
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

If all goes as expected, Posey’s minor-league stay was a short one. The catcher really has little left to prove in the minors after just one full season. The former college star hit .326/.428/.540 in 291 high-A at-bats in ’09 before skipping double-A and moving up to triple-A where he hit .321/.391/.511 in another 131 at-bats. Posey also received 17 big league at-bats at the end of the year. His hope of playing everyday in 2010 as the Giants’ primary catcher was dealt a blow this past off-season when the club re-signed veteran backstop Bengie Molina, but there is talk that he’ll see playing time all over the diamond, thanks to his solid athleticism. I’ve said it before, but count me down as someone who doesn’t like the idea. As a college convert to the position, Posey needs experience behind the dish to help iron out his receiving- and game-calling skills; his throwing was solid in ’09 (46% caught stealing).

2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Majors
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – North Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

In two seasons, Bumgarner has yet to post an ERA above 1.93. His FIP, though, has not been quite as sterling, and it’s actually risen with each promotion: from 1.71 to 2.05 to 3.56 to 4.60 in a brief MLB trial in ’09. The lefty has lost some velocity from his prep days, but it hasn’t bothered him much in pro ball. He held his own in double-A last season by allowing just 80 hits in 107.0 innings of work. His walk rate of 2.52 was solid but his strikeout rate of 5.80 K/9 was low and he’s a borderline fly-ball pitcher. The lefty has a good shot at the No. 5 job in the Giants rotation in 2010 with his biggest competition being Todd Wellemeyer. At the age of just 20, Bumgarner is probably not ready to be an impact pitcher at the MLB level just yet. However, don’t be too concerned about the lesser velocity unless it keeps leaking; it’s possible that he’s sacrificing miles per hour for movement and/or control.

3. Thomas Neal, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 36th round – Riverside Community College
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Neal just keeps getting better. In fairness, his ’09 numbers may have been helped by a good hitting environment. Even so, the 22-year-old outfielder hit .337/.431/.579 in 475 at-bats. His ISO rate jumped from .168 in low-A in ’08 to .242 in high-A in ’09. Neal has also shown solid patience at the plate over the past three seasons, topping out at 11.6 BB% this past year. He did a nice job of trimming his strikeout rate by 4% over ’08’s 24.1%. It will be hard for Neal to improve upon his .444 wOBA from ’09 but he has the talent to be a star corner outfielder for the Giants. Defensively, his range is better suited for left field but he has the arm strength to play right field without embarrassing himself.

4. Dan Runzler, LHP, Majors
DOB: March 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 9th round – UC Riverside
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, curveball

A former ninth-round (under the radar) pick, Runzler has found a lot of success as of late thanks to his solid fastball – especially for a lefty – and his outstanding ground-ball rates. Playing at four minor league levels in ’09, the southpaw produced an eye-popping 64.7% ground-ball rate, as well as an incredibly-low 5% line-drive rate. After all that traveling in the minors, Runzler was rewarded with a trip to the Majors where he posted a 1.04 ERA (but 4.14 FIP) in 8.2 big league innings. He struck out 11 batters but showed that he still has some work to do with his control by walking five batters. The former UC Riverside hurler has gone from little-known middle reliever to a potential MLB closer down the road.

5. Roger Kieschnick, OF, High-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas Tech University
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

After not getting into game action in ’08, Kieschnick made up for lost time with a solid pro debut in high-A ball. He hit .296/.345/.532 and showed the plus power that he was known for in college (.236 ISO). The outfielder did have some troubling plate rates, though, with a low walk rate of 6.4% and a high strikeout rate of 25.1%. On the plus side, he has little pro experience so he has room (and time) to improve. The left-handed hitter did a nice job of handling southpaws by posting a .933 OPS on the heels of a .400 BABIP. His OPS against right-handers was .832. Kieschnick is a hustler on the base paths and in the field despite average speed. He also has the arm strength for right field.

6. Brandon Crawford, SS, Double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – UCLA
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Crawford is an interesting prospect because people either love him (and see him as a regular big league contributor) or they hate him (and see him as a big league utility player at best). Not really known for his bat in college, Crawford had a lot of success in the lower minors and hit .371/.445/.600 in 105 high-A at-bats to being the ’09 season. The shortstop had a more difficult time in double-A, though, and hit .258/.294/.365 in 392 at-bats in a much more difficult league to hit in than the high-A California League. At the heart of Crawford’s problems at the dish are his plate rates. His walk rate dipped to 4.7% in double-A and his strikeout rate was 25.5% (while his power dipped from .229 to .107 after his promotion). Crawford may not hit for a high average in the Majors, but he could slug 15-20 homers and play above-average defense. At worst, I see him developing into former Blue Jay and Cub Alex Gonzalez.

7. Ehire Adrianza, SS, Low-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A gifted fielder, Adrianza can take his time developing his raw skills thanks to the presence of Crawford ahead of him. The slick Venezuelan showed some improvements at the plate in ’09 at low-A ball by hitting .258/.333/.327 in 388 at-bats. He clearly does not have much power right now (.070 ISO) and he also does not steal many bases (seven successes in eight tries) so Adrianza is currently a singles-hitter. As such, he currently projects as a possible Gold Glove infielder who will hit eighth in a National League lineup. He clearly tired late in ’09 and hit below .220 in August and September.

8. Clayton Tanner, LHP, High-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 86-89 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Tanner isn’t flashy and he doesn’t have a great fastball, but the southpaw has been very successful in the minors. He posted a career-high 4.15 FIP in ’09 but he was pitching in the hitter-friendly California League (for the second straight year). Tanner showed improvements by reducing his hits allowed (132 in 139.1 IP) and he improved his strikeout rate to 7.82 K/9 while also showing solid control (2.71 BB/9). He was, though, hurt by the long-ball with a HR/9 rate of 1.16. With his narrow margin for error, it would be nice to see him improve upon his 46.5% ground-ball rate. He certainly performs better again left-handed hitters (0.96 vs 1.28 WHIP) so he should have a career in the bullpen at the very least.

9. Francisco Peguero, OF, Low-A
DOB: June 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

First the good: Peguero, 21, has hit like a mad man in North America, including a .340 average in low-A in ’09. Now the bad news: His walk rate was 2.0 BB% and his BABIP was .396. Moving back to positives, the outfielder also stole 22 bases in 27 tries in ’09. A solid defensive outfielder, Peguero is goes all out in the field and at the plate, which helps to explain his low walk rate. His arm strength is also off the charts. Along with his over-aggressive approach, Peguero needs to learn to drive the ball more consistently.

10. Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Majors
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

The 10th man was a difficult decision and I went with a good arm, but one that projects as a reliever. Joaquin has been kicking around the system for more than seven seasons but he’s still just 23 years old. The right-hander still struggles with his control but he did a nice job of missing bats in both triple-A and the Majors in ’09. He also did not give up a homer last year until he reached the big leagues (zero in 64.0 innings), in part due to solid ground-ball rates (50% in ’09). The fastball-slider pitcher averaged 96 mph with his heater in the Majors. Despite relying on the slider and showing questionable control against them (5.86 BB/9), Joaquin dominated left-handed batters by holding them to a .140 batting average.

Up Next: The Texas Rangers

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

The Graduate: Merkin Valdez, RHP
As Buster Posey will probably tell you in private, there are not a lot of rookies that get a fair shake in San Francisco. Valdez was one of a few rookies that saw “significant” playing time in 2009. The right-handed reliever allowed 57 hits in 49.1 innings of work and posted a walk rate of 5.11 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.93 K/9. A former hard-throwing top prospect, Valdez has had injury problems and his lack of minor-league options meant that San Francisco had to hold on to him all year even though he struggled. With a fastball that sits around 95 mph, Valdez is an intriguing commodity but he needs to improve his secondary pitches (He threw the heater more than 80% of the time).

The Riser: Dan Runzler, LHP
This was a hard pick to make because A) Runzler may sneak onto the back end of the Top 10 list for the organization (I like him a lot) and B) Most of the other risers definitely vaulted themselves onto the Top 10 list. Although he is a middle reliever right now, Runzler could be a very good one. The southpaw has crazy ground-ball rates (60%+ in his career) and his fastball has been sitting around 95 mph in the Majors (7.1 innings). He’s not just a LOOGY, either. Runzler has held lefties to a .189 career batting average and righties are hitting just .181. Don’t count him out as a future closer.

The Tumbler: Nick Noonan, 2B
Noonan did not make a huge tumble in 2009 but the 2007 supplemental first round pick out of a San Diego high school did certainly take a step back. His OPS has dropped from .809 in his debut to .730 in 2008 and .728 this year. He’s also seen his strikeout rate go from 9.7 to 19.6 to 21.1%. As well, he stole just nine bases this year in 14 attempts after nabbing 29 in 2008. With a .136 career ISO, Noonan offers just a little pop and now he’s stopped running, which means he’s a singles hitter that hit just .259/.330/.397 in high-A ball.

The ’10 Sleeper: Hector Sanchez, C
Sanchez made his North American debut in 2009 and held his own with the bat in rookie ball. The 19-year-old catcher batted .299/.403/.410 and showed a good grasp of the strike zone for his age with a walk rate of 12.0% and a strikeout rate of 17.9%. Impressively, though, it’s his defense that gets talked about the most and he threw out 45% of base runners attempting to steal. Like some other Giants we know and love, he needs to watch his weight.

Bonus: Clayton Tanner, LHP
Tanner received some consideration for “The Riser” category before I realized he was listed as the sleeper prospect in the 2008 minor review. The southpaw can be labeled as a soft-tosser, which limits his ceiling to a degree, but the Australian continues to make improvements and have success. Tanner posted a walk rate of just 2.71 BB/9 while repeating high-A ball for the second year.The 21-year-old also increased his strikeout rate over 2008 from 6.46 to 7.82 K/9. In 139.1 innings, he allowed 132 hits but gave up an alarming 18 homers (1.16 HR/9). Tanner needs to work on throwing better quality strikes.

The Graduate: Sergio Romo | Born: March 1983 | Right-Handed Pitcher

A former 28th round selection, Sergio Romo has faced an uphill battle to the Major Leagues but he made the most of his opportunities and appeared in 29 games with the Giants in 2008. He allowed just 16 hits in 34 innings with rates of 2.12 BB/9 and 8.74 K/9. His minor league numbers have been almost video-game like with rates of 1.73 BB/9 and 10.06 K/9 in 271.1 career innings. His stuff is underwhelming with a fastball that averages 88.9 mph and a slider at 77.5 mph. He utilized a change-up 3.3% of the time.

The Riser: Madison Bumgarner | Born: August 1989 | Left-Handed Pitcher

The Giants organization knew it had something special with Madison Bumgarner, who was a first round selection out of high school in 2008. He spent the entire year in A-ball and posted an unbelievable 1.46 ERA in 141.2 innings. He allowed 111 hits and posted rates of 1.33 BB/9 and 10.42 K/9. Bumgarner, if he continues to pitch this well, could reach Double-A in 2009. The southpaw’s fastball works in the low 90s most of the time but he can touch 96 mph. His slider and change-up are works in progress.

The Tumbler: Wendell Fairley | Born: March 1988 | Outfielder

Wendell Fairley was considered a bit of a reach at 29th overall in the 2007 draft, as some suggested it was a selection to help the club save money as it had multiple picks in the first two rounds. Fairley struggled to hit in Rookie Ball at the age of 20, with a line of .259/.346/.337 with an ISO of .078. He also stole just seven bases in 52 games. On the plus side, Fairley has a lot of athleticism and showed a willingness to take a walk (11.9 BB%).

The ’08 Draft Pick: Roger Kieschnick | Born: January 1987 | Outfielder

Roger Kieschnick, the Giants’ third round selection in 2008, signed too late to appear during the regular season so the organization sent him to the fall Hawaii Winter Baseball league. He held his own but struggled to hit for average with a line of .236/.333/.482 with six homers in 110 at-bats. He also struck out 46 times, though. Kieschnick should begin 2009 in A-ball.

The ’09 Sleeper: Clayton Tanner | Born: December 1987 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Bumgarner and Tim Alderson got a lot of attention in 2008 but Clayton Tanner has some intriguing talent as well. The 20-year-old southpaw was drafted in the third round of the 2006 draft. He has been hittable in his career – 288 hits allowed in 278.1 innings – and has not struck out a ton of batters (6.89 K/9) but there are a number of positives. He has allowed just seven home runs in his career and has excellent control (2.94 BB/9). Tanner features a high 80s fastball that can touch the low 90s, as well as a slider and change-up.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays