Archive for Cliff Lee

The 2008 World Champions are back in the World Series in ’09, but the club faces a huge challenge in the form of the New York Yankees, a club that boasts the largest payroll in Major League Baseball. Both clubs, though, have paid a hefty price for their success and both clubs have benefited from the free agent and trade markets.

In fact, neither Game 1 starter was with their respective teams one year ago. Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee was playing with Cleveland, while C.C. Sabathia signed with New York prior to the ’09 season as a free agent. He began ’08 with The Tribe, but was later traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. The two hurlers were teammates for six-and-a-half seasons, so you can bet each pitcher has given extensive scouting reports to their respective offense.

Both aces have been dominating throughout the season and in the post season:

Regular Season
Sabathia: 3.39 FIP, 7.71 K/9, .233 AVG, 6.0 WAR
Cliff Lee: 3.11 FIP, 7.03 K/9, .273 AVG, 6.6 WAR

Post Season
Sabathia: 2.44 FIP, 7.94 K/9, .210 AVG, 0.79 WPA
Cliff Lee: 1.82 FIP, 7.40 K/9, .169 AVG, 0.86 WPA

Sabathia has dominated opponents with a very good fastball-changeup combination, while mixing in some average sliders. Lee, on the other hand, relies heavily on a good fastball, while mixing an assortment of average pitches and maintaining excellent control. Who has the edge? My gut says New York, mainly because the hitters have, on average, seen a lot more of Lee than Philly has seen of Sabathia.

New York has yet to announce who will pitch in Games Two and Three, but Philly will follow Lee with veteran Pedro Martinez — who has seen a lot of the Yankees during his time in Boston — and the disappointing Cole Hamels. The Phillies club has also activated pitcher Brett Myers for the World Series. The free-agent-to-be was on the NLCS roster, but he was removed for the NLDS. Utility player Miguel Cairo was deleted from the active roster.

Through the nine-game post-season, the hottest hitters for the Phillies have been:
Shane Victorino (.361/.439/.722)
Jayson Werth (.281/.395/.813)
Ryan Howard (.355/.462/.742)
Carlos Ruiz (.346/.500/.500).

The biggest disappointments have been:
Jimmy Rollins (.244/.279/.317)
Pedro Feliz (.161/.212/.355).

In order to repeat as World Champions, Philadelphia will have to get to the Yankees’ top starters, including Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. In the bullpen, both Mariano Rivera (eight appearances) and Joba Chamberlain (seven) have been overworked in the nine-game post-season. As well, outside of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, the offense has been inconsistent. But as any American League fan can tell you, New York’s offense is always one at-bat away from exploding.

At mid-season, Philadelphia was making a well-publicized push for Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, a free agent after the 2010 season. With then Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi wanting the moon and then some, the Phillies organization looked elsewhere for pitching depth. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is looking like a very smart man.

Cleveland sent veteran southpaw Cliff Lee to the Phillies for four prospects: right-handed pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp, infielder Jason Donald, as well as catcher Lou Marson. Lee made 22 starts in Cleveland and was good for four wins above replacement (WAR). For Philly, he made 12 regular season starts and was good for a 2.4 WAR. In the playoffs to this point, Lee’s excellent pitching allowed Philadelphia the opportunity to win both of his starts (a 0.70 WPA).

So, how did the prospects end the season in the Cleveland organization? For Philly’s Triple-A squad, Carrasco – the highest-rated prospect in the trade – had a 2.92 FIP in 114.2 innings. In Cleveland’s system, he posted a 4.01 FIP in 42.1 innings, while allowing 31 hits and posting a walk rate of 2.98 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.79. He made five starts in Cleveland and posted a 7.08 FIP. He had equal walk/strikeout rates at 4.43. Carrasco’s fastball value was well below-average at -5.95 wFB/C despite averaging 92.3 mph.

Marson hit .250/.346/.386 with a .136 ISO in 44 big-league at-bats for Cleveland. He also hit .243/.319/.340 in 103 Triple-A at-bats for the organization. Donald hit .257/.350/.400 but appeared in just 10 games after the trade due to an injury. Knapp also struggled through injuries in his new organization. (He was dealing with shoulder woes before the trade, too) Cleveland, though, could not turn down the opportunity to acquire his blazing fastball and gaudy strikeout numbers in low-A ball (11.03 K/9). Once in the Cleveland organization, Knapp made four starts and pitched just 11.2 innings.

That’s not a whole lot for the 2008 Cy Young award winner. Also keep in mind that Cleveland also tossed in outfielder Ben Francisco, who has some value as a bench player. To be honest, Donald and Marson are likely part-time players at best. Clevaland has better options, especially at catcher. Knapp is a long way away and the injury to his shoulder is worrisome. Carrasco is a pitcher who has never been able to live up to his impressive potential. Lee, on the other hand, has already exceeded expectation.

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Colorado Rockies by the score of 5-4 on Monday night to take the best-of-five National League Division Series (NLDS) in four games. It was certainly an exciting end to the series with Colorado storming back to take the lead by the score of 4-2 in the eighth inning, with a three-run explosion. Unfortunately, yet another veteran closer blew up as Huston Street gave up three runs to the Phillies in the ninth inning.

Both starters were solid: Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez went 7.0 innings and posted a WPA of .133. Philly’s Cliff Lee went 7.1 innings and posted a WPA of .276. Offensively, Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard led the way for Philadelphia. Werth drove in two runs, plated once and posted a WPA of .397. Howard, again, made the most of one hit in the game – a double – and he drove in two runs and scored once. His WPA was .320.

Offensive MVP: Ryan Howard
Howard led the team with six RBI in the NLDS, and he also scored three runs. He heated up throughout the series, posting WPAs each game of .007, .115, .208, and .320.

Pitching MVP: Cliff Lee
Lee pitched a total of 16.1 innings out of a possible 18.0 frames, saving the bullpen and giving the team a great opportunity to win both games, which it did. He posted WPAs of .397 and .276.

Honorable Mentions:
Colorado’s most consistent hitter, despite the overall losing effort in the series, was young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. In 17 at-bats, he hit .588/.632/.882 with 10 hits in four games. He also stole two bases, walked twice and struck out just once. Gonzalez had at least two hits in each game.

Veteran catcher Yorvit Torrealba had a big impact on the series as well, posting WPAs of .021, .213, -.132 and .321. He also played solid defense and did a nice job with his game calling. Torrealba led Rockies hitters with five RBI in the series and was second to Gonzalez in total bases with 10.

It’s now onto Los Angeles, where Philadelphia will face the Dodgers on Thursday night. The starters have not been announced yet, but lefty Cole Hamels is expected to get the ball in Game One of the National League Championship Series (NLCS). The two teams faced off in the 2008 NLCS, as well, with Philly coming out on top and eventually winning the World Series.

I think it’s safe to say that the Game 3 of the National League Division Series (NLDS) between Philadelphia and Colorado was not a pretty one… and it was a little painful to watch for those of us who hate the cold. Neither starter – Jason Hammel for Colorado and J.A. Happ for Philly – made it into the fifth inning. The Rockies pitchers appeared to have problems with the cold and issued eight walks in the game. Philly starters gave up four free passes, including two in one inning of work by Brad Lidge. He shut the door in the ninth inning, but Lidge kept fans – on both sides – on the edge of their seats through the entire ordeal.

With a WPA of .430, young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez attempted to win the game all by his lonesome. He has looked extremely impressive in this series, finally living up to the lofty reputation as a top prospect. On Philly’s side, second baseman Chase Utley had a solid game with a WPA of .274. He had three hits, including a solo homer. Utley also scored two runs. Although he had just one hit in four at-bats, first baseman Ryan Howard posted a WPA of .208 and drove in two runs. The bullpen took a potential hit when left-handed reliever Scott Eyre had to leave the game with a twisted ankle.

It’s going to be another cold night on Monday evening as the Rockies host Game 4 of the NLDS. It will be a good pitching matchup with Ubaldo Jimenez going for the home side, and Cliff Lee taking the ball for Philly. Lee dominated Colorado in the first game of the series and pitched a complete game. That, of course, was in a more favorable pitching environment and with the home-field advantage.

The bullpens were used pretty heavily by both clubs last night: Colorado used six relievers, Philadelphia used five relievers. Eyre is likely unavailable for Philly. The Phillies still have Pedro Martinez in the ‘pen, who has yet to throw a pitch in the series.

A couple quick observations from the other series this past week:
1. I have never seen a veteran closer look as nervous facing a lineup as Joe Nathan appeared on Friday. Horrible results followed his arrival on the mound. I couldn’t believe it when manager Ron Gardenhire brought Nathan out again on Sunday after watching him in the previous matchup. I knew the series was over when Nathan walked in.

2. Watching Scott Kazmir in the third inning of the Angels-Red Sox game on Sunday was an eye opener. I can see why he’s struggled at times this year. With runners on second base – first Jacoby Ellsbury and then Dustin Pedroia – Kazmir’s grips on the ball were clearly visible in his glove; I was able to call every pitch without having to try and decipher the catcher’s signal. Not surprisingly, both Pedroia and Victor Martinez swung like they knew exactly what type of pitch was coming.

As Dave noted earlier this afternoon, several teams are currently trying to improve their starting pitching, presently plugging holes either internally or via stopgap veterans. Two of the bigger names on the market, Erik Bedard and Jake Peavy, have battled health issues all season, vastly reducing their perceived value in the market, especially given the haul of prospects required to entice their respective employers. Another name tossed around a bit, Brandon Webb, is out for the season and potentially half of the 2010 campaign.

Rumors regarding Roy Oswalt have been floated with increased regularity as well, but his no-trade clause combined with a very lucrative contract and Drayton McClane’s unwillingness to realize the current incarnation of his franchise is doomed, makes the Astros ace hard to move. The other popular trade candidates are Jarrod Washburn, Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Jason Marquis, and potentially, Aaron Harang.

All of this brings us to Cliff Lee, currently a better pitcher than any of the guys mentioned above, who also has a pretty favorable contract relative to his contributions. Lee makes $5.75 mil this season with an $8 mil option for next season. His 2010 salary will actually be $9 mil on the option based on the incentive stipulating a $1 mil raise should he win the Cy Young Award in either 2008 or 2009. Seeing as he won the award last year, the incentive has kicked in.

With the Indians tanking and Lee’s value likely higher than it ever will be, it makes sense for Shapiro to kick the tires on a potential deal netting him prospects, but for some reason, more rumors and trade talks have involved guys like Marquis, who is actually making almost double Lee’s salary this year, and is a free agent at the end of the season with no option on which to hang his head. I am honestly perplexed as to why Lee has not attracted more attention; or if he has, why we have not heard about it yet. It is almost as if teams are still waiting for the massive regression to occur, when we now have a year and a half of awesomeness from the Indians lefty proving his worth.

Since the beginning of last season, Lee has thrown 334.1 innings over 47 starts, with a 2.67 ERA almost matched by an equally low FIP, a 1.17 WHIP, a sub-2.0 walk rate, and a 4.2 K/BB ratio. The only thing missing is the reputation that usually accompanies the name of a pitcher with numbers like that over an extended period of time. It is time to start realizing that Cliff Lee has become a very good pitcher, not a back of the rotation upgrade. If any of the Phillies, Brewers or Rangers is serious about solidifying their rotation by trading a young stud prospect, they should start amping up efforts to acquire Lee. He might not win the Cy Young Award again, but given his contract and current established level of performance, as well as the lack of health issues, no other pitcher being discussed as a trade target would be a more significant upgrade.

When an otherwise average player suddenly puts up one of the best seasons of the decade, fans are not only going to take notice, but they will also be very skeptical that the performance can continue. The kneejerk reaction is to suggest regression to the mean in the coming season(s), especially if the solid numbers were more contingent upon luck based indicators than the controllable skills that tend to stabilize quickly. In the case of Cliff Lee, the bandwagon of fans suggesting he would stink this year grew as vast as the group that swore last season was “for real.”

Even though Lee’s strikeout, walk, and groundball rates were more responsible for his turnaround, the majority of fans felt he would come nowhere near a repeat performance this season. When Lee’s first two starts ended with 17 hits and 11 earned runs in just ten innings of action, confirmation biases reigned supreme.

A confirmation bias is essentially what happens when someone actively seeks evidence to confirm what they think is true. With regards to Lee, someone who felt he would significantly regress would view these two game lines and proclaim that the Cliffer had finally gone back to his old ways.

Well, eight starts into the season, Lee’s line looks like this: 8 GS, 54 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9. His 1.41 WHIP is not likely to stay as high nor is the 81% strand rate that has virtually canceled out the walks and hits ratio. Lee has already produced +1.7 wins in spite of two poor outings to start the season.

Since his second start, Lee has gone 44 innings while surrendering just seven earned runs. He has a tidy 4.0 K/BB thanks to 32 punchouts and eight free passes. Even though Lee got off to a rough start, he has rebounded very nicely to the tune of a 1.43 ERA and 2.78 FIP over his last six starts. With the dominating season turned in last year and his stellar performance so far, ZiPS sees Lee finishing this campaign with a 3.43 FIP in 208 innings. Numbers like that resemble John Danks‘ line from 2008, which produced +5.2 wins.

Cliff Lee might never again surpass the +7 win plateau but his current pace will still likely merit some award votes and a spot on the all star team. He does not have the pedigree or reputation of a Halladay that would instill supreme confidence into the minds of fans, but Lee has, through eight starts, done plenty to show that last season was not a fluke.

Cliff Lee had, by all accounts, a fantastic 2008 season en route to a Cy Young Award. What made his performance more remarkable was how he seemingly came out of nowhere, a back end of the rotation type of pitcher without any history of complete and utter dominance. Unfortunately, his success last season also paved the way for a wide array of speculation with regards to which pitcher will repeat such a turnaround this season.

Double unfortunately, many of those doing the speculating lack some sort of uniform criteria, leading to several names being floated that realistically fail to match the exactitudes of Lee’s season.

Pitchers like Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson and Chad Billingsley are mentioned the most often. All three of these righties have been dominant in April but do not really have that “Cliff Lee” feel in that they are fairly recently removed from prospect status. Lee experienced a bit of success in the majors for several seasons before an injury plagued 2007 and a dominant 2008; guys like Greinke, Johnson and Billingsley simply do not fit that bill.

Greinke suffered from depression early in his career, rebounded for a very stellar 2008 campaign and has allowed just one unearned run in four starts this season. That doesn’t place him in the same category as Lee. Greinke isn’t a non-descript pitcher suddenly becoming an ace but rather an ace in the making living up to his potential. The same can be said for Billingsley, whom many have been high on for over two years now. Johnson looked dominant before injuries got the best of him so he, too, does not belong in such conversations.

If people are really looking to try and find the “next Cliff Lee” they need to include back end pitchers with a smidgeon of success in their past who have looked solid so far. Someone like Wandy Rodriguez comes to mind. If Rodriguez finishes this season with incredible numbers then his season would have a similar feel to Lee’s. Looking for someone to replicate what Lee did goes beyond someone posting incredible numbers who is not an established ace like Johan Santana or Roy Halladay and too many analyses are failing to make this distinction.

Case in point, speculating on which pitchers are going to have breakout seasons and cement themselves as horses capable of carrying a team is fine… just do not label such speculations as searching for the next Cliff Lee. Or if such a label is involved, make sure the pitchers being discussed are actually in the same category as Lee and not just young pitchers coming into their own.

This morning, our topic of discussion involved the bottom half of the top ten pitching performances of 2008, as determined by single-game WPA. As mentioned then, no pitcher accrued an individual game WPA above +1.0 this season, but there were still some absolutely fantastic outings. For posterity’s sake, numbers ten through six were:

10) Bronson Arroyo, 8/26 @ Hou:   0.660 WPA, 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
9)  Roy Oswalt,     9/6 @ Col:    0.676 WPA, 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
8)  James Shields,  5/9 vs. LAA:  0.685 WPA, 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
7)  Jeff Karstens,  8/6 @ Ari:    0.695 WPA, 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
6)  Matt Cain,      7/24 vs. Was: 0.707 WPA, 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

And here are the top five:

#5: Cliff Lee, 5/12 vs. Toronto
Cliff Lee had a remarkable season. After having to fight for his job in Spring Training, Lee went onto win the 2008 AL Cy Young Award. Without attempting to stir any discussions about Lee/Halladay, his top performance of the year, via WPA, occurred on May 12, against Doc’s team. Lee pitched a complete game shutout, scattering seven hits and two walks over nine innings, striking out five in the process. At the end of the day, Lee was putting the finishing touches on an incredible streak to start the season, earning a 0.715 WPA.

#4: Josh Banks, 5/25 vs. Cincinnati
Jeff Karstens seemed a tad out of place on this list, but at least there are plenty of people who have heard of him. Banks, however, is not well-known, and did not have a very solid 2008 season, yet he somehow managed to harness everything he has into the fourth best performance of the season. For those that do not remember, this 5/25 Padres/Reds game was the one that went 18 innings. Banks pitched six fantastic relief innings, surrendering five hits and no runs to go with two walks and four strikeouts. His work earned him a 0.718 WPA.

#3: Jesse Carlson, 4/16 vs. Texas
Keeping with the theme of relievers earning high WPA marks, Jesse Carlson of the Blue Jays found himself in quite the predicament against the Rangers early in the season. BJ Ryan had blown the save in the ninth inning, and the Rangers were again threatening in the tenth. Brian Wolfe allowed the first three batters to reach base safely, and was lifted in favor of Carlson. Jesse entered into a bases loaded, no outs, situation, and managed to get out of it, recording a “Houdini” in the process. He would pitch two more scoreless innings, limiting the baserunners to one hit and two walks, while striking out four. The Rangers would win the game, but Carlson recorded a 0.721 WPA for his stellar work.

#2: Ben Sheets, 9/6 vs. San Diego
Ben Sheets has always been the guy with the ridiculous “stuff” and potential to be fantastic if he could stay healthy. We got to see a lot of him this year, and he didn’t disappoint, but none of his games were better than the one on September 6. Against the Padres, home at Miller Park, Sheets tossed a five-hit, complete game shutout, walking one and fanning seven. His 0.729 WPA for the day placed him second on our list, though quite the distant second behind the best performance of the season.

#1: CC Sabathia, 6/10 vs. Minnesota
How could a list like this not have Sabathia? An eventual teammate of second-place Sheets, Sabathia’s game on June 10 actually occurred before he was sent to Milwaukee. Back when he was a member of the Indians, CC tossed a five-hit, complete game shutout, with no walks and five strikeouts. His single-game WPA, the best of any game for a pitcher this year, was 0.775, significantly better than everyone else on this list.

Nobody may have produced single-game WPAs above +1.0, but it is tough to imagine, after seeing these games, what someone would have to do to accomplish such a feat.

< rant >

Earlier this week, I poked some good-natured fun at the BBWAA for their Rookie of the Year award voting. See, Edinson Volquez of the Reds finished fourth in the balloting, yet he is not a rookie. Just because nobody heard of him prior to this year does not automatically deem him eligible as a rookie. I mentioned how numerous bloggers, myself included, had been running a year-long ballot for the three major end of season awards, and we knew from the get-go that Volquez did not qualify. I thought a transgression like this could forgotten, but after seeing the voting totals for the AL Cy Young Award today, I legitimately felt like finding the addresses of some voters and berating them until they gave solid enough reasoning for their selections.

Cliff Lee deserved to win, so let’s clear that up right now. My anger has nothing to do with his victory. He would have had my vote if I were so privileged. He may not repeat this performance next season, but a 2.54 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and K/BB above 5.0, combined with a 5.96 WPA and league best 4.76 WPA/LI is definitely worthy of an award honoring the best pitcher of the season. Halladay may faced stiffer competition, and twirled nine complete games, but honestly, Lee deserved this.

My anger stems from the balloting after that, even though a correction ultimately would not have changed the result. Roy Halladay finished in second place, which is appropriate. In any other season, Doc likely would have run away with the award, with his 2.78 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 246 innings logged, K/BB above 5.0, and 4.27 WPA/LI. He even received four first-place votes, meaning four writers and voters felt he legitimately had a better season than Lee. Lee, of course, finished in second place on each of those ballots.

Given how these two pitchers were, far and away, the cream of the crop in the junior circuit, I expected to see Halladay register anywhere from 20-24 of the remaining second place votes. How many did he register? 15. A little math shows then that, of the 24 remaining ballots that did not put Halladay as the top candidate, nine voters felt someone else was legitimately better and more deserving.

Now, given that Francisco Rodriguez broke the saves record this season, I then expected that those remaining nine second-place votes belonged to K-Rod. A quick glance at the total tallies showed that K-Rod only received seven of those nine second-place votes. So where did the other two go? Thanks for asking, they went to Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox. Yes, the same Daisuke that posted a 2.90 ERA, lower than Halladay, a 4.03 FIP, a full run lower than Halladay, a K/BB ratio under 1.70, and who didn’t even record 170 innings pitched.

Two voters felt that Daisuke had a better season than Halladay. Even using the W-L record, Daisuke did go 18-3, but Halladay won 20 games and did it on a team with an offense considerably worse than the Red Sox. Clearly, voters have to know this, right? Further, Daisuke wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team, as Jon Lester ran away with those honors. And Lester received NO votes at all! In essence, we have a situation where two second-place votes were given to a pitcher who not only did not deserve them over the rightful owner, but had no business receiving more votes than another pitcher better than him on his own team.

With my anger brewing, my eyes shifted to the third-place column, where I expected to see that Roy Halladay had racked up 9 votes. After all, there are 28 ballots, and he received 4 first-place and 15 second-place votes. I haven’t taken arithmetic since the second grade, but that leaves nine unanswered ballots for Halladay. Guess how many third place votes he had. Six. Nine minus six equals three. That means… wait for it… three voters felt that Roy Halladay had no place on their ballot?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? I mean, seriously, are you kidding me!? I don’t even care if Mariano Rivera had a much better season than K-Rod, or that Lester had a better year than Daisuke, or that Ervin Santana had a better year than BOTH Lester and Daisuke. No, what I care about is that three voters filled in a name under first place, second place, and third place, and none of those names were Roy Halladay. Three writers filled out AL Cy Young Award ballots with some combination of Lee-Rodriguez-Santana or Lee-Rodriguez-Rivera, or Lee-Rodriguez-Daisuke, or Lee-Daisuke-Mussina, or any of the other possibe combinations sans Halladay.

To me, this is absolutely atrocious, and if I were in charge, it would be grounds for revoking voting privileges. Even the caveman baseball stats peg Halladay as better than pretty much anyone other than Lee. I write two articles per day here at Fangraphs, 1-2 per week at Statistically Speaking, 4-8 a month at Baseball Prospectus, and chime in every now and then at The Hardball Times, WHILE managing the workload of a graduate business student, responsibilities as a screenwriter, a tax preparer, and a few other web-based jobs, and I was still able to find 10-15 minutes to really analyze the numbers of all of these candidates. None of this is designed to toot my own horn, but rather to show that I am equally as busy, if not moreso, than those with voting privileges.

And yet, someone who “doesn’t live in their mother’s basement,” who is “around the players” and “at the ballpark,” with nothing to do other than meet their deadline with an article full of drivel, cannot do the same? I honestly don’t know what else to say on this one. If Albert Pujols doesn’t win the NL MVP award, well…

< /rant >

The Cy Young Award in the American League is more than likely going to go to Cliff Lee, and deservedly so. After all, he leads all starters in WPA/LI, has the highest K/BB in baseball, the lowest WHIP, the most innings, the most complete games, ranks third in strikeouts… oh wait, that’s Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays. Throughout this entire season we have watched in shock, disbelief, and awe as Cliff Lee put together one tremendous season. His season, however, is not that much better than Roy Halladay’s, and many fans could make very good cases that Halladay has had the better year.

On the season, which happens to be the best full season of Doc’s career, Roy has a 5.06 WPA/LI (5.19 when you count his one relief appearance), a 5.60 K/BB ratio, a 1.06 WHIP, 2.79 ERA, and a 2.98 FIP. By all accounts, his is one of the best season’s over the last eight or nine years, but it is very likely it will not be recognized as such when the baseball writer’s vote. Now, I’m never one to cry over “injustices” especially when these athletes are making more money than my entire street combined, but in a year when K-Rod broke the saves record and Cliff Lee came out of nowhere to post ridiculous numbers, Halladay will be lucky to even receive some first or second place votes.

If you look past the rates, his numbers get even better, as his 228.2 IP lead all AL starters, as do his 8 complete games. His 196 strikeouts ranks third in the junior circuit. W-L record, as we know, is a terrible evaluative barometer, but it is extremely hard for many to look at a record like Lee’s 22-2 and think that someone who went 18-11 was more effective. Run support could help explain this, though; Lee has the fourth highest at 6.16 RS/9 while Halladay’s is twelfth lowest at 4.57 RS/9. If Halladay had anywhere near the run support of Lee, and his record was more like 23-5 or 21-7, don’t you think more people would be discussing him as a legitimate contender?

This just magnifies the problems with W-L record, not just in the mainstream but even in the world of analysis, because whether realized or not, it is very, very difficult to block the W-L out of our minds. Moving forward, Halladay is much more likely to repeat, or come close to repeating, this year’s performance. Even though both have very sustainable BABIP’s hovering around the .300 mark, Lee’s LOB% is close to 80%, which might be sustainable for Randy Johnson 2001-03 or Pedro 1999-00, but probably not the Cliffmeister. Additionally, his HR/FB is an unsustainably low 4.9%. Halladay’s numbers in these areas are very close to the league average.

Aspects like moving forward or which pitcher is “more real” are not taken into account in a Cy Young Award race, and Lee will very likely win the award based on his performance and how good of a story it is, but make no mistake, Roy Halladay is putting the finishing touches on his best year, a masterpiece of a season, one just as good, if not better than Lee’s, and he deserves all the accolades that may or may not come his way.