Archive for Cody Johnson

General Manager: Frank Wren
Farm Director: Kurt Kemp
Scouting Director: Tony DeMacio

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Braves organization is not churning out the pitching prospects like it once did, but there are some interesting power arms in the system. The club has had some problems with injuries amongst its young pitchers, especially recent draft picks, which is a little worrisome. The two bats at the top of the Top 10 list have a chance to be impact bats – especially Heyward. He could be an absolute monster at the plate. Many of the prospects on the Top 10 list are still a few years away.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Triple-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I loved Heyward on draft day in ’07 and I like him even more now. Despite being drafted out of high school, he’s flown through the system and reached triple-A in ’09 at the age of 20. He began the year in high-A where he hit .296/.369/.519 in 189 at-bats. Heyward then moved up to double-A and produced a line of .352/.446/.611 in 162 at-bats. His season ended with three games in triple-A. The outfielder showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .222 in high-A and .259 in double-A. He also displayed the potential to provide five to 10 steals and Heyward had a double-digit walk rate, which topped out at 14.7% in double-A. His BB/K rate of 1.47 at that same level was outstanding. There are few holes in his game. Heyward’s durability is currently surrounded by question marks after be was dogged by minor injuries during the season and in the Arizona Fall League.

2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Freeman’s season began very well in high-A when he .302/.394/.447 in 255 at-bats. The first baseman found the going much tougher in double-A and he hit just .248/.308/.342 in 149 at-bats. His power also dropped with his ISO rate going from .145 to .094. Even at its peak last season, Freeman’s power output was below-average for an impact first baseman, but he projects as a 20-homer guy — not a true slugger. One reason for his poor numbers in double-A was the drop in BABIP, from .341 to .273; he was also playing with a hand injury. On the positive side, his strikeout rate actually dropped from 16.1 to 12.8%, so he wasn’t completely over-matched. He’ll head back to double-A in 2010.

3. Julio Teheran, RHP, Low-A
DOB: January 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Colombia)
MLB ETA: Early-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

There is no question that Teheran has the stuff to be a dominating starter in the Majors, but his durability is in question, as he’s been slowed by shoulder soreness. He made just 14 starts in ’09 and he split the year between rookie ball and low-A ball. At the senior level, Teheran posted a 3.68 FIP and allowed 42 hits in 37.2 innings. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.63 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was just 6.69 K/9. The right-hander has a good change-up but his breaking ball still needs work, which is one of the reasons for the low strikeout rate. Teheran is loaded with potential but he’s just 18 years old and will likely develop slowly, especially with the organization being cautious with his health.

4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Short-Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph, plus curveball, change-up

Vizcaino had a very impressive season as a teenager in short-season ball. He missed a lot of bats with a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and he kept the walks in check at 3.19 BB/9. In 42.1 innings, Vizcaino allowed just 34 hits and two homers (0.43 HR/9). His ground-ball rate improved 10% over his debut season in ’08 to 48%, which is a positive trend that will hopefully continue in 2010. If he reaches his potential, Vizcaino has the stuff to be a front-line starter… but he’s also a ways away from the Majors. He was the key player acquired recently in the Javier Vazquez deal with the Yankees.

5. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Wallace State CC
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Kimbrel has flown through the system since signing in ’08. The right-handed reliever has posted outstanding strikeout rates throughout the minors, including 17.10 K/9 in 20.0 low-A innings and 15.38 K/9 in 26.1 high-A innings, both in 2009. His control, though, has been more spotty. Kimbrel posted a walk rate of 2.70 BB/9 in low-A but it rose to 9.57 BB/9 in high-A. He also pitched 11.2 innings in double-A and walked seven batters with 17 Ks. Overall on the year, he allowed 30 hits, 45 walks and struck out 103 batters in 60.0 innings. Kimbrel needs to sharpen his control before reaching the Majors, but he has closer potential with a blazing fastball and good slider.

6. Randall Delgado, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Another good arm, Delgado proved his durability in ’09 by making 25 starts in low-A ball. He allowed 123 hits in 124.0 innings and posted a FIP of 3.20. He also showed a consistent ability to miss bats with his good fastball and he posted a strikeout rate of 10.23 K/9. His control was OK, especially given his experience level, and he had a walk rate of 3.56 BB/9. Delgado also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.65 HR/9). He was particularly effective against left-handed hitters, who managed to produce an average of just .225 against him. He also posted a strikeout rate of 10.92 K/9 against them, compared to 8.87 K/9 against right-handed batters.

7. Ezekiel Spruill, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Spruill had a nice first season out of rookie ball with a 3.37 FIP in low-A. He was a little too hittable, though, and he allowed 120 hits in 116.0 innings. Spruill is always around the strike zone, though, and the hitters in the low minors tend to be free swingers. He showed outstanding control with a walk rate of 1.86 BB/9. The right-hander backed that up with a strikeout rate of 7.37 K/9. He also posted an outstanding ground-ball rate just shy of 57% on the year. Spruill’s stuff is more solid than electric and he projects to be a No. 3 starter in the Majors.

8. Christian Bethancourt, C, Rookie
DOB: September 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Bethancourt had a solid debut season in the low minors. In rookie ball, he hit .275/.340/.443 in 166 at-bats. The right-handed hitter did struggle against left-handed pitchers and he posted an OPS of just .577. For a teenager, Bethancourt showed a good eye at the plate and intriguing raw power. He’s known as a good leader behind the plate and he also has promising arm strength, as he threw out 30% of base stealers in ’09. He’ll likely move up to low-A in 2010, where he’ll be one of the youngest players in the league.

9. Cody Johnson, OF, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

People seem to either love or hate Johnson as a prospect. Just 21, he slugged 32 homers last year, and has gone deep 58 times over the last two seasons. However, his strikeout rate actually rose from his 37.8% mark in ’08 to 40.6% in ’09 as he moved up from low-A to high-A. On the plus side, his walk rate also rose, from 7.9% to 13.2%. Johnson will need to tone down his swing if he’s going to succeed even in double-A, but he’d still have above-average power if he swung with one hand tied behind his back. With a .242 batting average in high-A, he’ll likely struggle to hit even .220 in 2010 if he doesn’t make some adjustments. At this point, he’s a long shot to be an impact player in the Majors but he’s fun to follow.

10. Adam Milligan, OF, High-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 6th round – Walters State CC
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Milligan did not get into game action after signing in ’08 so ’09 represented his debut season. The outfielder had an outstanding season while spending the majority of the season in low-A where he hit .345/.393/.589 in 197 at-bats. He also posted an ISO of .244 but he was raw on the base paths and got caught five times in nine attempts. The left-handed hitter did OK against southpaws, but he still posted much better numbers against right-handers (.870 vs 1.013 OPS on the year). His walk rate was low at 5.7% but his strikeout rate was OK at 21.8% given his power output. Milligan received a taste of High-A ball and he should return there in 2010. With just 256 pro at-bats, we still don’t no exactly what this intriguing prospect has to offer.

Up Next: Tampa Bay Rays

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Isolated Power (ISO) and wOBA (For an explanation on this stat, check out HERE) among the three high-A leagues: the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League. I want to add a caution with this league, though. The California League, is an extreme hitter’s league, so many of the numbers are inflated. The Carolina League is also an above-average hitter’s league, although not as potent as the Cal League. The Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher’s league, so the offensive numbers will not be as gaudy.

.366- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston

Gaston has absolutely exploded this season, thanks in part to the launching pad that is Lancaster (and the league in general). The strikeout rate is worrisome (28.2 K%) but the left-handed hitter is also walking at a respectable rate (12.3 BB%). Gaston, 22, has an intriguing mix of power (27 HR) and speed (12 SB, 13 3B). He was barely a blip on the radar entering the 2009 season.

.300- Joseph Dunigan | 1B/OF | Seattle

If you need proof of the power of the California League, look no further than Dunigan. He had a batting average of .231 in short-season ball in 2007, and .240 in low-A ball last year. This season the 23-year-old is hitting .303 and has hit more homers (22) than he did in his first two seasons combined (18) and in half the at-bats. On the plus side, his walk rate has improved, while the strikeout rate dropped from 32.5 in 2008 to 27.8 K% this season.

.279- Alex Liddi | 3b | Seattle

Liddi could not even hit .250 in his past two full seasons in low-A ball. A move to high-A ball, though, has seen his average jump from .244 to .352 (a difference of .108). His ISO also increased from .116 to .279. A raw player when he signed, Liddi is still only 20 years old, so some of his improvement is probably for real, but he’s not THIS good. Double-A will be a real test for him, especially with a walk rate of 7.8 BB%.

.459- Thomas Neal | OF | San Francisco

Along with Gaston, Neal is one of the biggest legitimate breakout candidates in the California League. The 21-year-old outfielder spent the 2008 season rounding back into shape after missing almost all of 2007 with a shoulder injury. His power and batting average have certainly received a boost from the league, but Neal has good plate discipline for his age (10.3 BB%, 19.6 K%) and he had good power numbers in the South Atlantic League last season.

.456- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston

See above.

.442- Logan Forsythe | 3B | San Diego

James Darnell has received a lot of attention for his strong offensive season. However, Forsythe was drafted in the same year and has had a very nice offensive season as well – and one level higher than Darnell. After a strong first half in the Cal League, Forsythe, 22, was promoted to double-A (thus making room for Darnell in Lake Elsinore’s lineup) and he’s continued to hit above .300 with a .160 ISO and a .400 wOBA in 22 games.

.284- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta

Baseball players don’t come much stronger than Johnson, but the 20-year-old has significant holes in his swing. As a result, despite massive power numbers, career strikeout rate of 37% is a huge red flag for this future quad-A slugger.

.239- Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh

Alvarez has received a lot of attention for his low batting average, high strikeout totals and lack of conditioning, but despite everything that’s gone wrong with his season, he’s still hitting for impressive power. The 22-year-old former first-round pick received a surprise promotion to double-A recently and he is currently hitting .280 in 22 games. His power has also remained strong, although his walk rate of 5.7% and his strikeout of 34.1% suggest his numbers are set to nosedive.

.232- Brandon Waring | 3B | Baltimore

Obtained last season (along with Justin Turner) from Cincinnati in the Ramon Hernandez trade, Waring is a power-hitting third baseman who will likely struggle to hit for average in the Majors (and possibly triple-A). He’s actually done a nice job to trim his strikeout rate from an average of 33% in his first two seasons to 25.6% in 2009 at high-A ball.

.423- Kris Watts | C | Pittsburgh

Wow, a catcher with a wOBA of .423! But don’t get too excited. Watts is playing in high-A ball at the age of 25, and it’s his second straight season at the level. You also have to like his BB/K rate of 1.55.

.396- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta

See above.

.388- Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B | Cleveland

Chisenhall got off to a scorching start in April and May before fizzling in June (although his power remained consistent). He’s begun picking things up again and he’s still having a well-above-average offensive season, despite the off month. A little more patience at the plate (8.8 K%) could help him take his game to the next level.

.218- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia

One of the names that might get dangled in a potential Roy Halladay trade, Brown is a dynamic young outfielder whose season was slowed by an injury. Despite that, he is showing increased (and somewhat unexpected) power potential in a league where it’s tough to hit for power. Brown also has the ability to steal 30 bases and play above-average defense.

.199- Chris Parmelee | OF/1B | Minnesota

A former first-round pick, Parmelee has moved slowly and quietly through the Minnesota organization. The left-handed hitter is already four years into his pro career, but he’s still just 21 years old. After struggling to hit above .240 in the past two seasons, Parmelee is up to .261 in 2009 while showing good power – and he’s trimmed his strikeout rate by 10% to 25.4%.

.198- Ike Davis | OF/1B | New York NL

Davis got off to a brutal start to his pro career in 2008 after being a first round draft pick. Last season he hit zero homers in 215 short-season at-bats and had an ISO of just .070. This season, though, he’s hit seven homers in high-A and another five since his promotion to double-A (27 games). It remains to be seen how well he’ll hit for average.

.410- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia

See above.

.404- Darin Mastroianni | OF/2B | Toronto

Mastroianni had a terrible first full season in low-A in 2008 as he struggled to receive playing time behind some of the Jays’ top high school draft picks from the 2007 draft. He even moved to centerfield at one point, from his natural second base position. The speedster has blossomed this season and looks like a potential big-league utility player in the Ryan Freel mold. Mastroianni stole 32 bases in 39 attempts, before moving up to double-A, where he’s nabbed 13 bags in 14 tries.

.390- Cody Cipriano | 2B | Tampa Bay

Cipriano’s career has actually paralleled Mastroianni’s almost eerily. However, the Rays prospect doesn’t have the Toronto farmhand’s speed. Cipriano does, though, have a little more strength, although it’s gap power so he looks like a future utility player.

2008 Draft Slot: 40th overall (Supplemental first round)
Top Pick: Brett DeVall, LHP, Florida high school
Best Pick: Zeke Spruill, RHP, Alabama high school (2nd round, 70th overall)
Keep an Eye On: Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Georgia community college (Third round)
Notes: The organization focused on pitching in the early rounds, taking three prep hurlers (Brett DeVall, Tyler Stovall, and Zeke Spruill) and one southern community college pitcher (Craig Kimbrel) before the fourth round. Kimbrel had a nice start to the year and earned a quick promotion to high-A but his control collapsed and he’s walked 18 batters in 10.2 innings of work (with 15 Ks too). Stovall is still in extended spring training, while DeVall was assigned to low-A in May. Spruill has been with low-A since the beginning of the year and he has a 1.91 ERA (2.73 FIP) in 42.1 innings.

2007 Draft Slot: 14th overall
Top Pick: Jason Heyward, OF, Georgia high school
Best Pick: Jason Heyward
Worst Pick: Jon Gilmore, 3B, Iowa high school (Supplemental first round, 33rd overall)
Notes: Jon Gilmore helped the Braves acquire Javier Vazquez from the Chicago White Sox, but the infielder has yet to hit more than .200 above rookie ball in two tries. Along with Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman (78th overall) has the chance to develop into a special offensive player. This was a very unusual draft for the Braves because the organization usually focuses on pitching, but it stayed true to its roots by drafting mostly prep players.

2006 Draft Slot: 24th overall
Top Pick: Cody Johnson, 1B, Florida high school
Best Pick: Cole Rohrbough, LHP, Nevada community college (22nd round)
Worst Pick: Cody Johnson
Notes: With seven picks in the first three rounds, the organization mixed pitching and hitting while taking just one college player. The club shocked a lot of people by taking Cody Johnson with its first pick, as the youngster was known for his massive power – and high strikeout totals in high school. The club has had a lot of bad luck with the prep pitchers it took early in the draft. Both RHP Cory Rasmus (Colby’s brother) and LHP Steve Evarts have had surgery, and Evarts has also had disciplinary issues (which haunted him in high school too). LHP Jeff Locke (51st overall) has had the best luck (and success) and is currently holding his own in high-A. LHP Cole Rohrbough has been slowed by injuries this year, but he was an absolute steal in the 22nd round.

2009 Draft Slot: Seventh overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Prep pitchers, then high school hitters
MLB Club Need: Relief pitching, Outfield
Organizational Need: Third base, Shortstop, Second base
Organizational Strength: Right-handed pitching, Left-handed pitching
Notes: The club has a lot of pitching depth, especially in the low minors. Triple-A starter Tommy Hanson (2005 draft) is probably the best of the bunch even though he’s been passed over for a promotion a couple of times. There is not a ton of outfield depth, but there are a few very promising young outfielders like Jordan Schafer (currently in Atlanta) and Heyward.

The Atlanta Braves organization is well-known for its preference in drafting raw high school pitchers and molding them with the club’s pitching philosophies. The 2006 draft was known for being heavy in talented college pitchers, but the Braves still followed through with the club’s original formula and selected four high school pitchers as part of its seven picks within the first three rounds of the draft.

(FYI: The club also draft high school first baseman Cody Johnson, community college shortstop Chase Fontaine, and college pitcher Dustin Evans).

Cory Rasmus, brother of St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus, was the first prep pitcher taken by Atlanta (38th overall). He has been slowed by injuries and has pitched just 13 innings in the last three seasons. He is expected to be healthy in 2009 and the right-hander should spend most of the year in A-ball.

Steve Evarts (43rd) has also pitched far less in the past three seasons than the Braves had hoped he would, in part due to injuries and in part due to disciplinary reasons. When he’s been on the mound, the young lefty has pitched well and he has a 2.30 career ERA in 98 innings, having allowed just 86 hits and 17 walks, with 81 strikeouts.

Jeff Locke (51st) has at least been able to stay on the mound for three seasons with good, but not spectacular, results. This season, his first in full-season ball, Locke allowed 150 hits in 139.2 innings but walked just 38 batters and struck out 113. The lefty obviously has excellent control, but he needs to miss more bats if he is going to be successful in the upper minors.

Chad Rodgers (100th) was the fourth high school pitcher taken and the third lefty. He, like Locke, played his first full season of ball in 2008 after two stints in Rookie ball. Rodgers went just 2-10 with a 4.53 ERA and split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen. He showed good control (2.76 BB/9) and struck out more batters than Locke (7.59 K/9) but also had trouble missing bats and allowed more than one hit per inning.

It’s true what they say: Young pitchers will break your heart. This quartet of talented pitchers have opportunities that millions dream of, but few realize. It’s about time they start to take advantage of those chances.