Archive for cory luebke

Two years ago, things looked to be headed in the right direction for San Diego. True, they were coming off a 91-loss 2011 season as they transitioned out of the Adrian Gonzalez / Heath Bell era, but the signs were at least pointing the right way. Keith Law ranked them as the #1 farm system in baseball, saying “in terms of total future value of players likely to play significant roles in the big leagues, they’re ahead of everyone else,” and “they are well-positioned to compete even with modest major league payrolls during the next five to six years,” thanks in no small part to the rewards reaped from the trades of Gonzalez and Mat Latos. Cameron Maybin had finally shown some of the promise that had made him a centerpiece of the Miguel Cabrera trade by putting up over 4 WAR, and so the Padres gave him a five-year extension. Nick Hundley took a big step forward with a .356 wOBA and 3.3 WAR, so San Diego bought out most of his remaining team control years too.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2007 amateur draft was an exciting time if you were a fan of the San Diego Padres, the San Francisco Giants, the Texas Rangers or the Toronto Blue Jays. Each organization had at least five picks before the second round, thanks to supplemental picks obtained for the losses of free agents the previous winter. It’s been five years since that draft, so it’s a good time to look back and see which team made out best with its additional selections.

1. San Francisco Giants: The organization found the best player out of the four clubs, a potential No. 2 starter and possibly landed a couple of future utility infielders. The club also flipped one of the prospects for a veteran infielder.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, 10th overall: Drafted out of high school, the southpaw reached the majors in his third professional season — technically his second, since he didn’t pitch after signing in 2007. The 22-year-old has the ceiling of a No. 2 or a No. 3 starter at the big-league level and already has one 200-plus inning season under his belt.

Read the rest of this entry »

* My apologies for the late posting of San Diego’s Top 10 prospects… but I think the wait was well worth it, especially if you picked up a copy of the FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy baseball companion (It’s 582 pages)!

General Manager: Jed Hoyer
Farm Director: Randy Smith
Scouting Director: Jaron Madison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Padres organization doesn’t get a ton of ink or love, but it has some really solid prospects – especially in the Top 5 of the Top 10 list. On the downside, the club has a big backlog at third base and the corner outfield positions.

1. Simon Castro, RHP, Low-A
DOB: April 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Castro took a big leap forward in 2009 at low-A ball as a 21-year-old pitcher. The right-hander posted an impressive 2.80 FIP while allowing just 118 hits in 140.1 innings of work. Castro also showed excellent control (2.37 BB/9) while missing a lot of bats (10.07 K/9). The prospect has a big, strong pitcher’s frame at 6’5” 200 lbs, but he’ll have to watch that he doesn’t get too big. It won’t be such a big deal while pitching in San Diego, but Castro’s ground-ball rate was a tad below 40% so it would be nice to see him improve his worm-burning rate.

2. Logan Forsythe, 3B, Double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – University of Arkansas
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Forsythe or Darnell. Darnell or Forsythe. Take your pick. Along with Edinson Rincon, the club has impressive depth at the hot corner. The big league club also has a pretty good young player at the position in the Majors in Chase Headley. Of the trio in the minors, Forsythe is my pick. He had a solid ’09 season while playing in both high-A and double-A. At the junior level, the right-handed hitter batted .322/.472/.504 in a very good hitter’s environment. Moved up to double-A, he hit .279/.384/.377 in 244 at-bats. Although he held his own against all pitches, Forsythe enjoyed facing southpaws in ’09, with a .951 OPS (compared to .821 versus right-handers). The drop in power after his promotion (ISO from .182 to .098) is a little worrisome, but Forsythe should still hit for average and get on base (20% walk rate in high-A). He even showed some smarts on the base paths with 11 steals in 13 tries. The 23-year-old prospect will need to cut down on his strikeouts (25.8 K% in double-A).

3. James Darnell, 3B, High-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – University of South Carolina
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A step behind Forsythe, Darnell began the year in in low-A as a 22-year-old and hit .329/.468/.518 in 222 at-bats. He then batted .294/.377/.553 in 235 at-bats after a promotion to high-A. Although Darnell does not project to hit for average as consistently as Forsythe, he has a little more reliable pop in his bat (ISO of .189 in low-A, .260 in high-A). Like his fellow third base prospect, he shows patience at the plate, but he whiffs less often (16.2% in high-A). Darnell is the more athletic of the two third basemen so he’s more likely to switch positions (second base, right field) and Forsythe has a solid defensive profile (including a strong arm) for the hot corner.

4. Jaff Decker, OF, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Arizona HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Because of his age (19), Decker was kept in low-A ball all season despite solid numbers. He posted a triple-slash line of .299/.442/.514 in 358 at-bats. The left-handed hitter showed above-average patience at the plate with a walk rate of 18.7% but his strikeout rate was a tad high at 25.7%. With that said, he does show power potential after posting an ISO of .215. At 5’10”, 200 lbs, Decker is going to have to watch his conditioning if he’s going to stick in the outfield. He also doesn’t hit quite as well against southpaws (.881 OPS) as he does against right-handers (.962 OPS).

5. Wynn Pelzer, RHP, High-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 9th round – University of South Carolina
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Pelzer has risen rather quickly through the system and should begin 2010 in double-A. The right-hander uses a solid two-pitch repertoire (and a developing change-up), as well as a solid ground-ball rate (53%) to produce nice minor league numbers. He posted a 3.30 FIP in high-A despite playing in a very good hitter’s park. He showed average control and posted a walk rate of 3.52 BB/9 and a respectable strikeout rate of 8.78 K/9. His HR/9 rate of 0.36 was very encouraging. Pelzer has some work to do against left-handed hitters (1.49 vs 1.03 WHIP).

6. Edinson Rincon, 3B, Short-season
DOB: August 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2014 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With Headley, Forsythe, and Darnell ahead of him, the organization can be patient with the raw Rincon. The right-handed hitter had a lot of success in short-season ball in ’09 after two years in rookie ball. The teenager hit .300/.415/.468 in 267 at-bats and showed solid patience with a walk rate of 14.2%. His strikeout rate was high at 22.5% but he showed some developing power with an ISO rate of .169. Rincon has a strong arm but he may soon out-grow the position and move to right field (or first base, but his arm would be wasted there).

7. Cory Luebke, LHP, Double-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Ohio State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-91 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Luebke, a southpaw, started the year in high-A and allowed 73 hits in 88.1 innings. He also posted a FIP of 2.58. He showed excellent control (1.73 BB/9) and posted a good strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9. Moved up to double-A, he had a 3.83 FIP and was a little more hittable (38 hits in 41.1 innings). Although he posted allowed a similar batting average against both right-handed and left-handed hitters on the year, Luebke showed a better ground-ball rate against lefties (58.2 vs 47.8%) and a more impressive strikeout rate (10.00 vs 6.70 K/9). He projects to be a No. 3 or 4 starter in the National League.

8. Aaron Poreda, LHP, Majors
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – University of San Francisco (Chicago AL)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A prized acquisition from the White Sox (in the Jake Peavy deal), Poreda has a good arm even if some of the shine has come off of him a bit since being drafted in the first round. The left-hander sacrifices some velocity for control but he can still reach the mid-90s with his heater. The big issue with him, though, is that his secondary pitches have never been overly strong. After making 11 starts in double-A at the beginning of the year, Poreda had mixed results in triple-A. He also made 14 appearances, all out of the ‘pen, at the MLB level for both the White Sox and the Padres. In 13.1 innings, he posted a 4.45 FIP and allowed 10 hits and 13 walks.

9. Lance Zawadzki, SS, Double-A
DOB: May 1985 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – San Diego State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A personal favorite of mine, Zawadzki is on the cusp of making the Majors, possibly as a utility player. The shortstop had a solid line in double-A in 09 and hit .289/.372/.416 in 346 at-bats (He began the year in high-A and had 145 at-bats). The switch-hitter does a little bit of everything but nothing overly well. He stole 14 bases in 15 tries and showed a nice line-drive swing. His strikeout rate is high (21.4%) for his modest power (.127 ISO). Zawadzki had more success against southpaws in ’09 but his BABIP played a big part (.408 vs .293).

10. Sawyer Carroll, OF, Double-A
DOB: May 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Carroll beat out a couple of other outfielders for the 10th and final spot on the prospect list. A corner outfielder, he had a nice offensive season while playing at three levels during his first full pro season. The left-handed hitter produced a triple-slash line at low-A (where he had his most at-bats) of .316/.410/.464. He continued to hit above .300 at all stops and he stole a total of 19 bases in 27 tries. He also laced 40 doubles and showed a good eye at the plate with a walk rate above 13%. If his power doesn’t develop a little bit more, Carroll should slid into a fourth outfielder’s role in the Majors.

Up Next: The Seattle Mariners

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Strikeouts Per 9 Innings (K/9) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among the three high-A leagues: the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League.

As with the high-A hitters, I want to add a caution with this league. The California League, is an extreme hitter’s league, so many of the pitchers’ numbers are more impressive than they appear. The Carolina League is also a difficult league to pitch in, although not quite as bad as the Cal League. The Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher’s league.

11.20- Chris Withrow, RHP, Los Angeles NL

Elbow soreness limited this former first-round pick to just four innings in 2008. His control has been off in 2009 (4.93 BB/9) but Withrow is still racking up the Ks. The 20-year-old has a 4.82 ERA, but his FIP is just 3.03. In 80.1 innings, he’s allowed 73 hits and just three homers.

10.24- Corey Kluber, RHP, San Diego

Kluber, 23, had a rough introduction to high-A in 2008 when he posted a 6.01 ERA (4.08 FIP) with 93 hits allowed in 85.1 innings of work. The right-hander was still a little too hittable in 2009 at the same level when he allowed 110 hits in 109 innings. Kluber did, though, post a strikeout rate of 10.24 K/9, as well as a walk rate of 2.97 BB/9. He’s now pitching in double-A, where he’s made just one start.

9.75- Connor Graham, RHP, Colorado

Graham has posted some good ERAs (and FIPs) in his first three minor-league seasons but his control has been less than impressive (5.07 BB/9 in ’08, 4.59 in ’09). This season he’s allowed just 68 hits in 80.1 innings of work, while also posting a strikeout rate of 9.75 K/9. With a mid-90s fastball and good slider (and not much else), Graham is probably a late-game reliever in the long run (a role he held in college).

2.58- Cory Luebke, LHP, San Diego

Luebke joins teammate Kluber on this list. Whereas Kluber was borderline old for the league, Luebke was certainly an over-ager at 24. The left-hander also struggled during his first taste of the California League in 2008 with a 6.84 ERA (3.93 FIP) and 97 hits allowed in 72.1 innings of work. This year, he allowed 73 hits in 88.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 1.73 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9. He’s now pitching in double-A with Kluber and has made three starts.

2.84- Jake Wild, RHP, Seattle

A senior sign out of college in 2007, Wild will be 25 in August so he’s definitely old for the league. He’s bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen in 2009, while showing good control (2.23 BB/9) and modest strikeout numbers (7.92 K/9). He’s been hittable with 104 hits allowed in 88.2 innings of work.

2.96- Joshua Collmenter, RHP, Arizona

The Diamondbacks organization really needs some prospects, so Arizona has to be encouraged with Collmenter’s season, even if he is 23 and pitching in high-A. The right-hander has allowed 87 hits in 104.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 2.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.06 K/9. The 6’4” 235 pound Collmenter has a big, strong pitcher’s frame and he has an outside shot of developing into a No. 4 starter.

9.92- Eammon Portice, RHP, Boston

The Boston organization is flush with prospects and Portice is one name that does not get a ton of attention, in part because he’s pitching in high-A at the age of 24. The right-hander has made 17 starts but he projects as a reliever in the Majors due to a his violent delivery and lack of a third reliable pitch. Portice has shown improved control and he induces a lot of groundballs when he’s sharp.

8.70- Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City

One of the most promising pitchers in the entire league, Duffy is just 20 years old. He’s allowed 83 hits in 90 innings, while posting a walk rate of 2.90 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.70 K/9. On the downside, his K rate has dropped each year of his three-year pro career, while his ERA (and FIP) has risen each season.

8.53- Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore

Like Boston, Baltimore is another organization that is rich in pitching depth and Britton often gets lost behind the likes of Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta. The southpaw, though, is extremely talented and has allowed just 87 hits in 101.1 innings of work. The 21-year-old hurler has allowed four homers. He has, though, struggled with his control a little bit (3.74 BB/9).

2.72- Bradley Meyers, RHP, Washington

Meyers was considered a possible supplemental first-round draft pick (in both high school and college) before his poor showing in his draft year of college. The Nationals got him in the fifth round and it’s taken him a little while to get acclimatized to professional baseball. Things have clicked for Meyers, 23, in 2009, and he allowed 71 hits in 88.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 2.14 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.62 K/9. He also had a 1.43 ERA (but 2.72 FIP) before his promotion to double-A, where he’s made just one start. He has a fastball that can touch 93 mph, a slider, and a changeup.

2.96- Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City

See Above.

3.06- Eammon Portice, RHP, Boston

See Above.

8.87- Evan Anundsen, RHP, Milwaukee

Anundsen has had one of the biggest jumps in value among any pitcher in high-A ball in 2009. The right-hander has seen his K rate jump by about 2 Ks per nine innings over his career norm, while also maintaining a solid walk rate (2.60). He’s also allowed just 67 hits in 93.1 innings of work. The right-hander is just 21 years of age.

8.75- David Newmann, LHP, Tampa Bay

Newmann was a fourth round pick coming out of college, but he did not get into game action after signing in 2007 and then he blew out his knee in the spring of 2008 and missed the entire season. As a result, the southpaw made his pro debut in 2009 at high-A ball. Considering the amount of time that he’s missed, you have to be impressed with his numbers, including his control at 3.67 K/9.

8.50- Darin Downs, LHP, Tampa Bay

A former Cubs prospect, Downs has seen his walk rate improve significantly (1.77 BB/9) over his 2008 season, when he posted a rate of 6.17 BB/9 in 22 double-A games. The left-hander has been too hittable with 104 hits allowed in 101.2 innings and he’s also 24 years old.

2.39- Evan Anundsen, RHP, Milwaukee

See Above.

2.57- Jose Rosario, RHP, Florida

Rosario is 23 years of age and he’s having his first successful season in pro ball since coming over to North America from the Dominican Republic. The right-hander has shown excellent control with a walk rate of 1.59 BB/9. He also has a strikeout rate of 7.75 K/9 and has allowed just two homers on the year. Rosario, though, is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who has been aided by the big parks.

2.76- Lance Pendleton, RHP, New York AL

Pendleton was a fourth round pick out of Rice University in 2005, but he missed almost all of the 2006 and 2007 seasons with injuries (surprise, surprise). The right-hander has looked good this season, but he’s also turning 26 in September. He has walk rate of 2.76 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.65 K/9. At best, he profiles as a middle reliever in the Majors.