Archive for David Wright

David Wright set the Mets’ all-time career RBI record last night, passing Darryl Strawberry, but he was already high on the list of the greatest Mets position players of all time. In fact, by Wins Above Replacement, Wright already is the G.M.O.A.T. — Greatest Met Of All Time. (Other than Tom Seaver, of course. No shame in that. Tom Terrific is probably one of the two or three best pitchers since World War II.)

He didn’t have a lot of competition, because the Mets have had more otherworldly pitchers than hitters. Mets have won four Cy Young awards — three by Tom Terrific and one by Doc Gooden — but no Met has ever won an MVP with the team. Only one Met position player has ever won rookie of the year, Strawberry. That’s not to say they haven’t had stars. Since the team was created in 1962, sixteen Met position players have been selected to multiple All-Star Games. By comparison, the Yankees have had 27, but the Braves have had just fourteen. The Mets have had great players, they just haven’t had a lot of superstars with staying power.

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As the hot stove league kicks into full gear, Mets third baseman David Wright has taken center stage as reports have the Anaheim Angels a potential trade partner. With centerfielder Peter Bourjos rumored to be on New York’s wish list along with a couple of pitching prospects, Mets fans seem to believe Wright, one of the better players in franchise history, is worth significantly more in return.

On Twitter, I’ve asked a number of followers why with answers ranging from “Wright is the Mets Derek Jeter” to “CITI Field has depressed his value”. With Mets fans screaming “The fence, the fence” much like “Tattoo” screamed “The plane, the plane” on “Fantasy Island”, it seems as if Wright’s return to the seven-to-eight win player he once was is just around the corner. And while I can somewhat buy the park being a factor in Wright’s diminishing returns, outfield fences have little to do with Wright’s -31.1 UZR over the past three seasons.

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This morning, RJ took a look at the ridiculously high BABIP belonging to David Wright, noting that nobody since 1954, with 300+ AB has ever exceeded .408, let alone .450 or .460. Though hitters tend to exert more influence over their BABIP than pitchers, not necessarily falling prey to the standard regression to .300, it is less likely for a hitter to post a .450+ BABIP than it is for Adam Eaton to pull a Johnny Vander Meer. One of the primary culprits of Wright’s BIP success is an otherworldly batting average on groundballs.

To date, Wright has a .471 BA on grounders. The league average is right around .240 over the last several seasons. Wright has essentially doubled that mark so far, recording hits on almost half of his grounded balls. Over the last few seasons, his GB% has held relatively steady with raw numbers in the 180-210 range. Given that his current pace falls in line with past results, a query for his contemporaries will stipulate a minimum of 160 groundballs.

Of those with 160+ GB from 2003-08, here are the highest GB-BAs:

Willy Taveras    2007  .413
Ichiro Suzuki    2007  .379
Norris Hopper    2007  .364
Akinori Iwamura  2007  .361
Carlos Gomez     2008  .359

Only one player with as many grounders as Wright has bested a .400 BA and only eight others have even exceeded .350. Suffice to say, Wright is currently in uncharted territory. There is no way he will sustain his seasonal line, but even with a severe regression, Wright is on par for an historical season in a few different areas.

Most of the players atop this groundball success leaderboard are speedsters, the guys known more for stealing bases than mashing longballs. Ironically, and somewhat comically, with his current tally of both steals and home runs, as well as his high BA on grounders, Wright has been performing more like the theoretical leadoff hitter than the powerhouse corner infielder we have come to expect.

Third base is nicknamed “the hot corner” due to the screaming liners or lightning-fast grounders that find their way to this position on the left side of the infield. Since the rest of the infield has been covered, we now turn to this hot corner to see which players stood out in a variety of different ways. While the discussion at third base usually begins with Alex Rodriguez, this year the position belonged to David Wright of the New York Mets. Wright produced a 5.20 WPA/LI, which ranked third in baseball behind Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez, let alone atop the list of third basemen.

In fact, Rodriguez did not finish directly behind Wright, either, as Chipper Jones put together quite the stellar season resulting in a 4.23 WPA/LI, about a win less than Wright. Rodriguez did come in third, on the heels of a 3.59, with Aramis Ramirez a half-win behind at 3.01. After these four, however, a wide gap separates them from the rest of the pack. In fifth place is Troy Glaus of the Cardinals, at 1.73, with Evan Longoria right behind at 1.71. Lastly, I am not quite sure how Jorge Cantu did not win the Comeback Player of the Year Award, but he produce a 1.35 WPA/LI for the surprising Marlins.

Third base is traditionally a solid-hitting position, and this year was no different than years past. Amongst those that qualified for the leaderboards, only Chone Figgins and Marco Scutaro were legitimately below average with the stick. In Scutaro’s defense, he only played 46 games at the hot corner this year, though his playing time was almost equally split between third base, shortstop, and second base. If we remove the qualifier, Andy LaRoche finished last at -1.82, with former hot prospect Andy Marte barely in front at -1.81. Jose Castillo (-1.44), Mike Lamb (-1.23), and Pedro Felix (-0.98) rounded out the bottom.

Feliz has been the best fielding third basemen in baseball over the last few years, but time missed to injuries and starts given to the more offensive-prone Greg Dobbs resulted in his fall from the top ten. Adrian Beltre, much maligned for falling short of expectations, led the way by a vast margin with a +32. Beltre has been very productive for the Mariners and it simply is not fair to compare him to the 48 HR version of him on the Dodgers prior to signing. Behind Beltre is Jack Hannahan of the Athletics, at +21. Hannahan is an interesting case as he was very adept defensively, but average or slightly below average at the plate closer to replacement level at the dish.

Behind Hannahan are a pair of third basemen that missed significant time yet performed well enough while healthy to finish with a +13. Scott Rolen, who played in just 115 games, and Joe Crede, in just 97 games, tied for third place. Fifth place brought with it a three-way tie between Evan Longoria, Blake DeWitt, and Chone Figgins, at +11. Figgins may have been below average with a bat in his hands, but his fielding was solid, and his baserunning topped all other third basemen. According to Baseball Prospectus’s EqBRR, a form of runs contributed due to base advancements, Figgins finished 8th in baseball at 7.66, with no other third basemen finishing in the top thirty. Next closest was Alex Gordon, 33rd, at 3.37.

Figgins also led with 34 stolen bases. Three players hit 40+ doubles, with Aramis leading the way with 44; David Wright‘s 42 and Jorge Cantu’s 41 were right behind him. The triples crown is split five ways between the scary quintet of Martin Prado, Jamey Carroll, Brandon Inge, Jose Castillo, and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Alex Rodriguez clouted 35 longballs, slightly ahead of Wright’s 33. But Chipper Jones took the OPS crown among third basemen, with a gaudy 1.044.

One player of note is Russell Branyan, who, in 50 games, produced a .230/.342/.583 line, a .925 OPS, complete with 12 home runs and 8 doubles in 132 at-bats. For anyone wondering why he is consistently given work, look no further. He may strike out a ton but the man gets on base and absolutely mashes. I know I was thrilled when the Phillies acquired him last year, and there are few lefty threats off the bench like him. You need not be a superstar to produce significant outputs at the major league level, and Branyan should be appreciated a bit more.

UPDATE: Apparently, Jack Hannahan looks better than he should due to a park adjustment. Regardless of his offense, he was the second best defensive third basemen this year.