Archive for Derrik Gibson

General Manager: Theo Epstein
Farm Director: Mike Hazen
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

There are no can’t-miss, once-in-a-decade talents on this Top 10 list, but there are a number of players who have the opportunity to really explode in 2010. You also have to love the fact that all 10 players on the list were drafted or originally signed by the Red Sox organization. You can’t fake good scouting and development.

1. Casey Kelly, RHP, High-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus curveball, change

The organization faced a difficult, and well-document, problem in ’09 when Kelly expressed a desire to hit and play shortstop. A compromise was made and the talented prospect spent the year as a two-way player. After hitting just .224/.305/.313 with a 29% strikeout rate in low-A, though, Kelly gave in and announced he will be a full-time pitcher in 2010. It’s a good thing, too, because the right-hander showed a lot of promise for a player whose heart was not 100% on the mound last season. In low-A ball, he allowed 32 hits in 48.1 innings, while showing outstanding control with a walk rate of just 1.68 BB/9. He also did not allow a home run while posting a FIP of 2.14. That number jumped a bit with his promotion to high-A (3.33) but Kelly still showed excellent control (1.35 BB/9) with a modest strikeout rate of 6.75 K/9. With just 46.2 innings of experience above low-A, Kelly should head back to high-A in 2010, but he could see double-A before the end of the season.

2. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 5th round – Rhode Island HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Westmoreland’s season came to a crashing halt when he broke his collar bone, but the outfielder solidified himself as the organization’s best hitter… in just 223 at-bats. The 19 year old hit .296/.401/.484 and showed good power potential with an ISO of .188. He also displayed patience at the plate with a walk rate of 14.2%, far exceeding what you’d expect from a player his age. His strikeout rate was a little high, but his future power output could eventually justify the number. Westmoreland was also a force on the base paths by stealing 19 bases in as many attempts. Sure it was short-season ball but a .427 wOBA is impressive no matter how you slice it.

3. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Majors
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Japan)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus splitter, curveball, slider

Tazawa’s mad mix of pitches cut a swath through double-A line-ups but the Japanese import found the going a little tougher in triple-A and the Majors (albeit in a smaller sample size). The right-hander allowed just 80 hits in 98.0 innings in double-A, while also posting a strikeout rate of 8.08 K/9. He was also aided by solid control (2.39 BB/9) and some luck (.277 BABIP, 79.8 LOB%). In six MLB appearances, Tazawa allowed 43 hits in 25.1 innings and his strikeout rate dropped to just 4.62 K/9. His ground-ball rate in the Majors of 24.5% was ugly, and hitters had little trouble with his 90 mph fastball (-2.54 runs “above” average per 100 pitches). Despite the bump in the road, Tazawa is still learning, as well as adjusting to life in North America, so his potential remains high.

4. Josh Reddick, OF, Majors
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 17th round – Middle Georgia College
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Reddick got off to a solid start in ’09 at double-A and hit .277/.352/.520 in 256 at-bats. He showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .242. His base running, after nabbing 14 bases in 17 ties in ’08, was almost non-existent as he was successful just five times in 10 attempts. Reddick’s numbers were terrible in 18 triple-A games and poor in 27 MLB games. His walk rate was good in double-A at 10.5%, but it dropped to 7.6% in triple-A and 3.2% in the Majors. On the plus side, six of his 10 MLB hits were for extra bases (59 at-bats). Reddick will certainly receive more seasoning in triple-A in 2010 but he should be ready to compete for a full-time gig in 2011… if there’s an opportunity.

5. Lars Anderson, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 18th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly, ugly year for Anderson… and his struggles were well-documented. After hitting .316 in 41 double-A games in ’08, the first-base prospect spent the entire season at that level but hit just .233/.328/.345 with an ISO of .112 in 447 at-bats. There were a few good signs, including the fact that he maintained a solid walk rate (12.3%) and his strikeout rate did not skyrocket (25.5%, similar to his career norm – which admittedly is high to begin with). Anderson’s wOBA of .315 was .060 below his previous low of .374 at low-A in ’07. As a slow-footed player whose game requires plus power output, he needs to get that ground-ball rate up from 54.8%. Anderson will be just 22 for much of 2010, so he has time to turn things around.

6. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Pimentel’s ’09 numbers do not wow. He allowed a lot of hits: 135 in 117.2 innings, but he put a lot of pitches in the strike zone (2.22 BB/9) at a level where players pretty much hack at everything. He also had some bad luck with a BABIP of .350. His strikeout rate was solid at 7.88 K/9 and his FIP was OK at 3.62. Pimentel’s ground-ball rate of 39.5% needs to improve if he’s going to survive the upper levels of the system. He turns 20 in February so time is on his side.

7. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 6th round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Simply getting back to the baseball diamond after dealing with a cancer scare would have been impressive enough, but Rizzo went out and turned himself into one of the best prospects in the system. The first baseman hit .298/.365/.494 in 245 low-A at-bats before moving up to high-A where he hit .295/.371/.420. Rizzo’s power output dropped from .196 to .125 ISO with the move, but his walk rate improved (9.1 to 10.9%), as did his strikeout rate (24.5 to 19.5%). Rizzo, though, was aided by some nifty BABIPs of .364 and .354. Although he held his own against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, his OPS was .862 against righties and just .721 against southpaws. He should open 2010 back in high-A but could move up to double-A as he prepares to breathe down Anderson’s neck.

8. Derrik Gibson, SS, Short-Season
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Delaware HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A personal favorite of mine, Gibson received his second straight year of short-season ball and looked over-matched in a brief 14-game trial in low-A ball. In short-season ball, Gibson hit .290/.395/.380 and had a .386 wOBA in 255 at-bats. He showed good patience for a future top-of-the-order MLB hitter with a walk rate of 12.9% and his strikeout rate was reasonable at 16.5%. He’s performed poorly against southpaws for two straight seasons (.566, .621 OPS). After nabbing 14 steals in as many tries in ’08, Gibson was successful in 28 of his 33 tries in ’09. Defensively, he’s expected to move off of shortstop, which takes a bite out of his value.

9. Ryan Kalish, OF, Double-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 9th round – New Jersey HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I’m a little more bearish on Kalish than a lot of evaluators because he has yet to do anything really spectacular in four seasons. The outfielder had a nice year in ’09 and he hit .304/.434/.513 in 115 high-A at-bats. Moved up to double-A, his numbers normalized a bit with a line of .271/.341/.440. At the senior level, he posted a walk rate of 9.6% and a strikeout rate of 22.3%, which is a tad high given his career power numbers. I will certainly jump on the Kalish train in 2010 if he can maintain a solid batting average while also at least equaling his ’09 power numbers. After stealing 21 bases in 27 attempts in ’09, he could develop into a 20-20 player in the Majors if everything clicks. With everything said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out in a big way in 2010 and made me look foolish for doubting him.

10. Michael Bowden, RHP, Majors
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental 1st round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

The knock on Bowden is that he’s not flashy. But there is something to be said for consistent and reliable. Pitching at double-A or higher since ’07, Bowden has posted solid numbers, although his FIP broke 4.00 for the first time while pitching for triple-A (4.08). Even so, he took advantage of some luck (.262 BABIP) and allowed just 106 hits in 126.1 innings, while showing OK control (3.35 BB/9) and a modest strikeout rate (6.27 K/9). He’ll do himself a favor if he can get the ball down in the zone more often and increase his ground-ball rate from the 31.1% he posted in triple-A. Called up to Boston to eat up some innings in the bullpen, Bowden did not have much fun – or luck. His 9.56 ERA was softened by his 5.16 FIP and he posted a LOB% rate of 48.4.

Up Next: The Philadelphia Phillies

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Daniel Bard, RHP
Although Bard did not hit the magical 50 innings-pitched mark to graduate as a rookie, he did spend enough time on the Major League roster to eliminate his rookie eligibility for 2010. The right-hander burst onto the MLB scene in ’09 but then stumbled later in the year. Overall, though, he had an excellent season by allowing just 41 hits in 49.1 innings of work. He also posted a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. Bard struggled a bit with his command – a chronic issue – with a 4.01 BB/9. For perhaps the first time, Boston fans have considered life after closer Jonathan Papelbon. The 24-year-old Bard posted a modest 0.8 WAR out of the ‘pen.

The Riser: Dustin Richardson, RHP
Richardson, miscast as a starter, moved to the bullpen in ’09 and found great success. The left-handed pitcher allowed just 42 hits in 63.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 11.37 K/9. He also made seven appearances in triple-A and made his MLB debut… which is pretty impressive considering how bad his numbers looked in ’08. Out of the ‘pen, Richardson shows an 89-94 fastball and a good slider. He needs to improve his control after posting a walk rate of 5.68 BB/9 and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. In his career, he typically fares well against both right-handed and left-handed batters, but he posted a 15.92 K/9 rate against the same-side hitters in ’09. If he can continue to get right-handed batters out, Richardson has the stuff to work as a setup man.

The Tumbler: Michael Almanzar, 3B
Given a huge contract to sign as an international free agent prior to the ’08 season, Almanzar’s offensive numbers have been pretty poor. Luckily for the organization, he’s still just 18 years old. The third baseman hit .207/.261/.293 in 188 at-bats after beginning the year in low-A ball. He was then demoted to short-season ball where he hit .230/.288/.302 in 222 at-bats. The youngster needs a better approach at the plate, with low walk rates and high strikeout rates. He also posted an ISO under .100 on the year. Almanzar has been hurt by low BABIPs in his career, outside of his 23-game stretch in rookie ball in ’08, and he might need a little more focus at the plate with the bases empty (.208 average).

The ’10 Sleeper: Derrik Gibson, SS
A personal favorite of mine, Gibson had a nice first full season in pro ball in ’09. After a solid debut in ’08, the shortstop followed that up in short-season ball with a line of .290/.395/.380 in 255 at-bats. He doesn’t have a lot of power right now (.090 ISO) but he should grow into gap power. Right now, his value lies in his speed, and he stole 28 bases in 33 attempts. Gibson does a nice job of getting on base (13.3 BB%), which is nice to see in such a young player. The 19-year-old infielder also showed a promising strikeout rate at 16.5 K%.

Bonus: Nick Hagadone, LHP
In the ’08 series, Hagadone – who was coming off Tommy John surgery – was highlighted as the sleeper pick for ’09. He was having an encouraging return for Boston, although he was being used cautiously as he worked his way back from the injury. The 23-year-old pitcher made 10 starts in low-A but pitched just 25 innings. He was then traded to Cleveland in a deal for veteran catcher Victor Martinez. Hagadone made seven more starts for his new organization, but again was used sparingly and pitched just 20 innings. Overall, he showed a good fastball but he struggled with his command, which was something that also plagued him pre-surgery. The left-hander walked 24 batters in 45 innings on the year.

The Graduate: Justin Masterson | Born: March 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

He’s not flashy – but Justin Masterson has the potential to be a beast coming out of the bullpen. The right-hander’s fastball averages out at 89.5 mph but it has incredible sink on it, which causes batters to consistently beat balls into the dirt. In 2008, Masterson allowed just 68 hits in 88.1 innings, along with rates of 4.08 BB/9 and 6.93 K/9. Although he started nine games, the right-hander is better suited for bullpen work where he can focus on his sinking fastball and slider. He used his change-up at the Major League level just 3.1% of the time. Once he cleans up his control, Masterson should really take off.

The Riser: Daniel Bard | Born: June 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Daniel Bard had a horrible 2007 season, which included a 6.42 ERA in A-ball and 56 walks allowed in 61.2 innings. He completely turned things around, though, in 2008 with a shift from starting to relieving. Bard began the year back in A-ball and allowed just 12 hits and four walks in 28 innings. He then moved up to Double-A where he allowed 30 hits in 49.2 innings with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. The control was obviously a little shaky at Double-A, but the potential is there to be a dominating eighth-inning reliever (and eventual closer) with a high-90s fastball and a slider.

The Tumbler: Clay Buchholz | Born: August 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Expectations were high at the beginning of 2008 for Clay Buchholz after he threw the 17th no-hitter in Red Sox history on September 1, 2007 (in just his second big league start). Buchholz, though, ended up back at Double-A in 2008 after posting a 6.75 ERA for the Major League club. He allowed 93 hits in 76 innings and posted rates of 4.86 BB/9 and 8.53 K/9. His fastball velocity was the same as 2007 and he allowed more ground balls but his command suffered, his pitches had less movement and batters made better contact against him (up five percent over 2007). The potential is still there, but Buchholz is in danger of being passed by other pitching prospect in a strong Red Sox system.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Derrik Gibson | Born: December 1989 | Shortstop

A third-round selection out of high school in 2008, Derrik Gibson had an impressive debut by hitting .309/.398/.394 with 14 stolen bases in 94 at-bats. He also earned a 14-game promotion to A-ball where he struggled and hit .086 (His BABIP was .125). Gibson does not possess much power at this point but he stole 16 bases in 2008 in as many attempts and also showed a good eye at the plate with a walk rate of 14 percent. He has the potential to be a solid top-of-the-order threat.

The ’09 Sleeper: Nick Hagadone | Born: January 1986 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Nick Hagadone appeared in just three games in 2008 thanks to Tommy John surgery. He showcased his immense talent in those three games by allowing just five hits and striking out 12 in 10 innings. He also dominated in his pro debut in 2007 with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and an excellent slider. Hagadone could be another dominating late-game reliever or he could find success as a starter if he can improve his change-up. He should be fully recovered from surgery by spring and could begin the year in High-A ball.

Up Next: The San Francisco Giants