Archive for Detroit Tigers

Tomorrow, Jim Leyland’s Tigers will commence their interleague play this year with a visit to Pittsburgh, Leyland’s old employer. And Leyland doesn’t want any part of it. He doesn’t have any use for AL-NL games any more, and the reason he gives is a 38-year old elephant in the room. Baseball’s two leagues have different rules, and teams built to take advantage of different rules — yet teams in each league play games against each other, playing 15-18 games a year by a different rulebook than they play the other 140-odd games of the season. Leyland is quite vehement:

I think this was something that was certainly a brilliant idea to start with. But I think it has run its course… It’s not really doing what it was supposed to — there’s no rivalries for most of the teams…

We play with the DH rules. The American League gets penalized, even though the record’s been decent over the years. We get penalized. Their pitchers are hitting and bunting all year, and they get the advantage of letting their pitchers rest and using the DH when they come here, and we gotta use guys six straight days without Victor Martinez or Alex Avila or somebody. That’s ridiculous. Totally ridiculous, and they ought to look into it…

At some point, I don’t know if I’ll be around to see it, but at some point you’ve got to get baseball back to the same set of rules.

Read the rest of this entry »

Miguel Cabrera getting a first place MVP vote is pretty silly. That said, as a player, dude is awesome. He’s not Keith Hernandez with the glove or Willie Wilson on the basepaths, but in case you haven’t noticed, he’s pretty good at the whole “hitting” thing. From 2007 to 2009, Caberara generated 110.5 batting runs above average. During that period, he’s accumulated more Wins Above Replacement than fellow first basemen Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Pena, and Ryan Howard. Cabrera will only be 27 next season. Rumor has it that he may be available in trade with the Tigers trying to clear salary. If so, what is his value?

To reiterate: Cabrera is an excellent (and still young) player. However, as fans, we’ve lately become more aware that a player’s value includes not only his (total) baseball skill, but, as Dave pointed out earlier in a different context, the player’s contract. Think about it this way: if someone gives you a house worth two million dollars, then you’ve gained two million dollars in assets. However, if someone “gives” you the same house conditional on you paying off the same two million dollars, you haven’t really added an asset, have you?

The valuation of baseball players is similar. Without getting into methods for calculating dollars per marginal win (see Colin Wyers’ excellent series at THT), this is perhaps the most important function of WAR. Teams spend money to add wins. WAR tells you how many wins a player adds above “freely available” talent. On its own, WAR tells us how much a player helps his team even if he’s below average. When WAR is connected with relative dollar value of marginal wins, we get a sense of how much a player exceeded or fell short of the value of his salary. Let’s apply this to Cabrera.

CHONE projects Cabrera as 37 runs above average per 150 games a hitter next season. Jeff Zimmerman projects him as a -1 defender at 1B. Looking at Cabrera’s baserunning numbers from the last few seasons, let’s call him -2. Prorated for 150 games, that’s: +37 hitting, -1 fielding, -11.5 position, -2 baserunning, +23 AL replacement level = about a 4.5 WAR player in 2010.

Following Tango, I’ll assume the current market value of a marginal win is $4.4 million. Again following Tango’s generic model, assume post-peak players decline by half-a-win per year. We need to build in annual salary inflation, (which I’ve set at 7%). With those assumptions in place, over the next six seasons (2010-2015) we’d expect a 4.5 WAR player like Cabrera to be worth about $102 million. Cabrera’s only 27, so the decline curve may be a bit harsh. If we add on a half-win a season to the original calculation, his estimated value from 2010 to 2015 is $118 million.

From 2010 to 2015 (six seasons), Cabrera is guaranteed $126 million. Think back to the house example — no matter how nice the house is, if you have to pay full price (or more) for it, you aren’t adding an asset. Cabrera is an excellent player, but he’s going to be being paid as much (or more) than he’s (likely) going to be worth.

Of course, the Tigers could pick up a chunk of Cabrera’s future salary and/or throw in cheap talent to add value from their side. However, straight up, given his estimated talent and large contract, Miguel Cabrera’s intrinsic trade value appears to be… nothing?

This is a bit of an extreme conclusion. Cabrera’s trade value is not “nothing.” He is one of the best hitters in the league and is young enough that he will probably remain so for at least the next few years. Having an efficient payroll is just a means to winning, not an end in itself, and players like Cabrera are rare indeed. Still, since Cabrera is being paid (at least) his likely market value over the life of the contract, he would only really help teams that can afford to pay market value on a regular basis — the Yankees, and perhaps the Red Sox (though probably not the Dodgers at the moment given their ownership situation). And the Yankees already have an expensive first baseman signed long-term in Mark Teixeira. Cabrera isn’t worth “nothing,” but his contract gives the Tigers much less leverage than one would expect given his age and skill.

The Graduate: Matt Joyce | Born: August 1984 | Outfielder

For the third season in a row, Detroit received an unexpected contribution from a young outfielder. Matt Joyce did his best Brent Clevlen/Ryan Raburn (Who also plays the infield) impressions in 2008… and Detroit can only hope he doesn’t follow their subsequent leads during his return engagement in 2009 (Both players fell on their faces in their second MLB seasons). This past season, Joyce hit .252/.339/.492 with 12 homers in 242 at-bats. He posted rates of 11.4 BB% and 26.9 K%. His .240 ISO was well above average for his minor league career, although he has shown more power each season. At worst, he should be a productive fourth outfielder.

The Riser: Rick Porcello | Born: December 1988 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The Tigers managed to give away just about every prospect in the system – save for Rick Porcello (Who thankfully wasn’t eligible to be traded last winter due to draft/minor league service time). Despite not pitching in his draft season due to signing late, Porcello was fast-tracked to High-A ball as a teenager and posted a 2.66 ERA in 24 starts. He allowed just 116 hits in 125 innings pitched and posted rates of 2.38 BB/9 and 5.18 K/9. The lack of strikeouts is obviously a concern, but Porcello has excellent stuff and is just learning how to get pro hitters out. Even so, don’t be surprised to see him in Detroit in the second half of 2009. The Tigers organization is not afraid to rush young players, and Porcello is that good.

The Tumbler: Michael Hollimon | Born: June 1982 | Shortstop

Michael Hollimon showed an intriguing mix of power and speed in his first three pro seasons but things went very, very wrong for him in 2008. Despite making his MLB debut in 2008, he hit just .211/.306/.420 in 331 at-bats in Triple-A. He posted rates of 12.9 BB% and (ugh) 32.9 K% in 2008. He failed to hit double-digits in stolen bases for the first time in full-season ball but posted an ISO of .208. After the season, it was announced that Hollimon – already 26 with limited MLB experience – would miss much of 2009 after undergoing surgery on the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Ryan Perry | Born: February 1987 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Detroit took a number of hard-throwing college relievers in the 2008 draft in the hopes of having them move quickly through the system to compensate for a lack of existing depth. Ryan Perry is considered the best of the bunch. Unfortunately, he did show some rough edges in his pro debut in High-A ball. He allowed 15 hits and seven walks in 11.2 innings, despite also striking out 12 batters. Perry’s fastball can reach the upper-90s but it lacks movement. His slider, when it’s on, has been compared to Brad Lidge’s breaking ball.

The ’09 Sleeper: Brandon Hamilton | Born: December 1988 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Brandon Hamilton’s selection out of high school in the 2007 draft was overshadowed by Porcello, but he is also a very promising pitcher. Hamilton began the 2008 season in extended spring training and then received a promotion to A-ball and allowed 34 hits in 32.1 innings. He struck out 22 hitters, but his control deserted him and he allowed 28 walks. Hamilton was then demoted to Rookie Ball where he pitched in nine games. He posted a 1.97 ERA and allowed 27 hits in 38.2 innings. He walked 13 batters and struck out 42. He should open 2009 back in A-ball, if healthy.

Up Next: The St. Louis Cardinals

If baseball continues to trend in the direction that it has been – less offence – then pitchers with average or fringe-ish stuff have a much better chance of putting together a solid Major League career. Right-hander Jonah Nickerson is one of those minor league pitchers whose career is looking a little bit brighter.

Currently in High-A Lakeland, an affiliate of the Detroit Tigers, Nickerson is continuing to build a solid pro career after being a very good starter at Oregon State University. The 23-year-old was drafted in the seventh round of the 2006 draft and has “fringe-average stuff” (86-88 mph fastball, curve ball, cutter, change-up) but he has solid command and knows how to pitch.

Nickerson did not pitch for the Tigers organization in his draft year, but he entered full-season ball in 2007. In 150 innings in low A-ball, he allowed 9.32 H/9 and 2.27 BB/9 but struck out just 6.93 batters per nine innings. Moved up to High-A ball in 2008, Nickerson has continued to improve. In 74 innings, he has allowed 8.76 H/9 and 1.95 BB/9. His strikeout rate has remained about the same at 6.81 K/9. He could be even more successful if he induced a few more ground balls, as he currently has a 1-1 ratio with fly balls. It might be a good time to give him the Double-A test.

No, a slow offensive third of a season in the Major Leagues does not suddenly make Nickerson a potential No. 1 or 2 starter. However, he is someone to keep an eye on as a possible future No. 4 or 5 starter, especially given the lack of top prospects in the Detroit system.

The Detroit Tigers minor league system is lacking in blue chip prospects, but the organization is having some luck with re-energized castoffs from other organizations, including Chris Lambert. He is not going to be the savior of the Tigers staff, but he has a chance to contribute at the Major League level, which is something that seemed unlikely even a year ago.

Lambert was originally drafted out of Boston College in the first round (19th overall) by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2004. He had a nice college career and pitched exceptionally well during his first year in the Cardinals system by posting an ERA below three, allowing fewer than nine hits per nine innings and by averaging one strikeout per inning. Things began to unravel, though, midway through the 2005 season when he hit Double-A and Lambert struggled mightily until 2008. He was obtained by the Tigers midway through the 2007 season for washed up Mike Maroth.

Now in Triple-A Toledo, Lambert currently has a 2.97 ERA in 14 starts and has allowed fewer than one hit per inning. He has also struck out 61 batters in 78.2 innings of work. The one downside is that he has been allowing more than one fly ball for every ground ball out, although only four balls have left the yard.

When he was drafted, Lambert possessed a mid-90s fastball and knee-buckling curve ball, along with a developing change-up. His stuff is not what it used to be, but he is learning to be more of a pitcher and less of a thrower. He no longer projects as a potential No. 2 starter, but he could still develop into a workhorse at the back end of the Tigers rotation.