Archive for domingo santana

I’ve written about the Houston Astros an awful lot recently. Between Lance McCullers, Vincent Velasquez, and of course, Carlos Correa, they’ve had more than their share of impact prospects arrive in the majors this year. Today, I’m back to analyze yet another Astro who was recently called up the big club: Domingo Santana.

You might have missed Santana’s call up among the flurry of blue-chip prospects who got the call this week. I almost missed it, and I monitor these things about as closely as anyone. But while Santana’s upside is nowhere close to that of a Byron Buxton or Francisco Lindor, he’s someone worthy of our attention.

Before the Astros called him up to replace Colby Rasmus, who’s currently on the bereavement list, Santana was absolutely mashing in Triple-A. His 176 wRC+ was the highest of all qualified hitters at the level. He also lead Triple-A in walks and slugging percentage. Sounds great, right? What’s not to like about a 22-year-old who’s hitting .320/.444/.584 in Triple-A?

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Last May, Rob Arthur of Baseball of Prospectus unveiled new research implying that PITCHf/x data can be used to forecast hitter performance. Essentially, he found that hitters who saw fewer pitches down the heart of the plate late in the year often outperformed their projections the following season. The theory behind this phenomenon is pretty straightforward. A pitcher knows a good hitter when he sees one, and chooses to approach him with caution. So when pitcher’s change their approach, it’s often an early indicator of improved talent from a hitter.

This finding gives us yet another tool to use in forecasting hitter performance. As great as statistical projections are, they can sometimes be a bit slow to recognize a breakout when it happens. Simply put, it’s not easy to identify the one breakout from the sea of small sample size flukes. However, Arthur’s research hints that incorporating pitch locations can help us get ahead of the curve.

This past January, Eno Sarris wrote a piece for JABO where he applied Arthur’s findings to 2014 data in an attempt to identify breakout candidates for 2015. Eno noted that this type of analysis is most useful for players who are relatively new to the league. For this reason, he limited his analysis to hitters with fewer than 800 big plate appearances.

I decided to dig a little deeper. To my knowledge, all applications of Arthur’s research have looked exclusively at big league hitters. However, in what follows, I make my best attempt at expanding this practice to hitters in the minor leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Goodwin, OF, Washington Nationals
Current Level: A
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 5th
Current Value: Value Up

The 34th overall pick of the 2011 draft, Goodwin signed for $3 million out of a Miami junior college. He’ll turn 22 in late 2012 so it’s a little surprising that he’s still in low-A ball after 57 games. The speedy outfielder is hitting .322 and has 43 walks compared to 39 strikeouts. His wRC+ of 169 suggests high-A (or possibly double-A) may not be far away. Along with his speed and solid defensive skills, Goodwin has shown promising power (.209 ISO). He could be ready to establish himself in the Nationals’ outfield at some point in 2014.

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