Archive for Fan Projection Targets

Your task today? To file projections for three recent movers (if not so much shakers): Jon Garland, Xavier Nady, and Jim Thome. Your compensation? Something like, but not quite exactly, the satisfaction of a job well done.

Garland moves southward in the NL West to the cavernous and pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Or PETCO. Or whatever.

After missing all but seven games last season to his second Tommy John procedure and the subsequent rehab, Nady looks to make his return with the Cubs, who signed the outfielder to a one-year, $3.3MM contract.

The Twins hope the contract they just gave a 39-year-old Jim Thome is right on Target. (Get it? Like Target Field?)

Today’s projection targets are all either living free or dying: Chris Carpenter, Brian Wilson, and Sam Fuld

Carpenter overcame injury concerns to make 28 starts en route to a 17-4 record and 2.24 ERA. His 3.38 xFIP was almost exactly in line with his career numbers.

Wilson overcame regrettable facial hair and an unseemly faux-hawk to post a 3.23 xFIP and 2.4 WAR over 72.1 mostly high-leverage innings.

Fuld overcame, uh… Okay, Sam Fuld is a stretch, but it was either him or Chad Paronto basically everything, it turns out. And let the record show that he posted a 122 wRC+ in limited time with the Cubs last year!

[Thanks to readers Jon and JoeR43 for setting the record straight on Fuld.]

Commenter Derek mentioned last week that neither Dan Haren nor Brandon Webb had crossed our 30-ballot threshold, so this edition of our Fan Projection Targets goes out to him. Today’s targets, in no particular order, are: Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and Billy Buckner. Now go project the hell out of them.

Haren cemented his place among the majors’ best starters last year, posting a 3.08 xFIP while topping 200 IP for the fifth consecutive year.

Webb, after having also having topped 200 IP for five consecutive years, pitched all of four innings last year while dealing with shoulder problems.

Though he had a 6.40 ERA last year, Buckner’s 3.95 xFIP suggests that he has the skill to succeed. He’s tentatively slated as Arizona’s fifth starter.

Happy New Year’s Eve (Day)! Let’s crank out one more set of fan projections before the decade is over. Today’s players: Mark Ellis, Josh Willingham, and Luke Hochevar.

It seems like just yesterday that A’s second baseman Mark Ellis was the toast of the on-line baseball nerd community for his outstanding second base fielding. We threw a collective fit (or at least released a collective sigh) when he signed a far-below market deal with Oakland (right before the market collapsed). Our thoughts on Ellis today? As I’m typing this, he hasn’t even passed the threshold for fan projections. Sure, Ellis missed much of 2009 due to injury, but are our memories that short? C’mon.

About this same time last season, the Jim Bowden-run Nationals were seemingly intent on fielding Ryan Zimmerman, a pitcher, and seven outfielders. One of the many outfielders acquired in Bowden’s final bonanza before the end of his career as a baseball executive was Josh Willingham. While sometimes forgotten between Elijah Dukes, Nyjer Morgan‘s incredible year in the field, and Adam Dunn’s amazing (in very different ways) year at the plate and in the field, Willlingham had another season that was below average with the glove, but good with the bat. But what will he do going forward?

We certainly need more pitcher projections, and for this last one we have another forgotten man: 2006 #1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar. While he has been generally disappointing in the majors so far, Hochevar did have several dominant starts last season, including a 13 strikeout game. Which Hochevar is the real one? How will he fare against (fading) expectations in 2010?

Click here to enter your projections for Ellis, Willingham, and Hochevar.