Archive for First Base

When the Rangers signed then-16-year-old Dominican Ronald Guzman in July 2011 for a whopping $3.45 million bonus, the 6’5″ hulk was said to profile as a corner outfielder with a big bat–the best offensive asset in the 2011 international amateur class. Over two years later, he remains a promising hitter–he hit .321/.374/.434 as a 17-year-old in the Rookie-level Arizona League and followed it up by posting a .272/.325/.387 line as an 18-year-old in Low-A this past campaign. He’s only gotten into 101 games due to a few injuries, but so far, Guzman’s offensive development is going about as well as the Texas front office probably hoped for. The other part of his profile, though, has changed.

Guzman was moved to first base almost immediately after signing. He has played in the outfield exactly once as a professional, back in 2012 for five innings to make room at first base for a then-rehabbing Mike Bianucci. To be fair, Guzman has played on teams that have featured notable outfield prospects like Nick Williams, Lewis Brinson, and Nomar Mazara, but his mooring to the game’s easiest defensive position at a young age owes far more to his lack of ability in the field than it does to his teammates. Guzman’s arm was widely panned as an amateur, he has a massive, sloping frame that doesn’t look built for speed (and will likely be even less so as he fills out), and he has a very odd gait that looks like he’s jogging on eggshells. Add it all up, and Guzman is, as WFAA’s Kate Morrison put it, “a first base prospect, not an outfielder/first baseman…but an honest-to-goodness stuck-at-first guy.”

In this post, I’m going to talk about the damnation of that designation.

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Today’s installment of our series on the coming free agent market takes a look at some of the first base and DH options that will be available. While the 2012 free agent class is pretty shallow overall, at first base (and DH, if you include it) there is some true quality and a bit of depth. At the top of the list are an old player, a player some people think will get old fast, and a player some people think is older than he says he is.

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Our look at the free agent class of 2009, split by position, continues as we venture over to first base, where Albert Pujols calls home. There are eight free agent first basemen available this offseason, but many more questions exist regarding these players than certainties. The only certainty, in fact, is that Mark Teixeira is the cream of the crop, and far more attractive (in a baseball sense) than any of his compadres. In fact, after him, the next youngest players are five years his senior. And of those players ranging from ages 34-38, a couple may be kept via options in their contract, and those remaining look more like backup pieces or potential new members for AARP than likely contributors to a franchise. Here is the list:

Name                   Age       G             Slash      WPA/LI
Mark Teixeira           29     157    .308/.410/.552        4.69
Richie Sexson           34      96    .221/.321/.382       -0.61
Sean Casey              34      69    .322/.381/.392       -0.15
Doug Mientkiewicz       35     125    .277/.374/.379        0.27
Kevin Millar            37     145    .234/.323/.394       -0.85
Carlos Delgado          37     159    .271/.353/.518        3.00
Tony Clark              37     108    .225/.359/.318       -0.18
Jason Giambi            38     145    .247/.373/.502        2.66

Giambi, the elder statesman of the group, has a 22 million dollar option on his contract for next season. The Yankees bringing him back is largely contingent on whether or not they ink Mark Teixeira to a big deal, which they can and should do. If Tex ends up in another uniform, one more year of Giambi would not really hurt anything, as he is still very productive and still hit 32 home runs with an OPS above .850 this past season. His BABIP was .257, which should call for regression, however, his BABIPs in 2006 and 2007 were .251 and .264, so perhaps this year’s number is more normal than it seems.

Teixeira, as mentioned, is the cream of the crop. His ability to get on base and hit for power are fantastic, and he is one of the best fielding first basemen in baseball. AKA, he is the total package, and at just 29 years old, looks primed for a big 5-6 year deal. Last season his OBP/SLG was .400/.563; this season, .410/.552. He hit 33 home runs and 41 doubles, was extremely durable, and his +24 at first base led the position this year in fielding.

Delgado has a 12 million dollar option on his contract that the Mets should almost certainly exercise given that he carried the team on his shoulders for the second half of the season. His 38 home runs and 32 doubles are even more impressive when it is remembered how poorly he performed early on. He takes pride in his defense, but this was a down year in that category. After posting a -4 and +1 in 2006 and 2007, he fell to -15 this year, one of the worst at the position. It is unclear whether this was a fluke or a sign of things to come, but if he can hit 35+ home runs with an OPS above .850 for the Mets next season, he will be worth all of that 12 million dollars.

Sexson is an interesting case, because his career entering 2007 looked great. He hit a ton of home runs, showed an ability to get on base despite striking out a lot, and at 32 years old, had at least a few more good seasons left in the tank. He also looked to be around the league average defensively. His 2007, however, was disastrous, as his fielding dropped to -15, and his slash line looked worse than Michael Bourn’s from 2008. A .217 BABIP can carry most of the blame for that, but even with a regression to .275 in 2008, Sexson only managed a .221/.321/.382 line with 12 home runs in 96 games. A line like that might be okay for a defensive replacement with occasional starting duty, but not for an everyday starting first baseman. He could easily ink a 2-yr deal given his reputation from pre-2007, but a safer bet would be an incentives-laden contract.

Aside from these four, we are left with Millar, Mientkiewicz, Clark, and Casey. Clark should probably retire at this point, as even though he still possesses the ability to get on base, his power has diminished over the last couple of seasons, and he is not that big of a threat off the bench. He could provide veteran leadership for another season, but, if anything, I see him as a mid-season signing somewhere and nothing more. Mientkiewicz is still a very solid defender, but his offense is not good enough to merit a full-time starting job somewhere. In the past, the Pirates would sign a guy like him to be their starting first basemen, so hopefully they can show they have some brains now and realize he is better suited to be a late innings replacement with occasional starts, and nothing more.

Casey is only 34, but he seems like he is 38 or 39 given his position on the bench over the last couple of years. A .368 BABIP helped massage this year’s statistics, accrued in limited action, but again, he is much better suited to come off the bench at this juncture of his career. Millar seems like a great clubhouse guy, and that could earn him some money and playing time next season, but like Clark, he should be looking towards retirement. He still managed to hit 20 home runs and 25 doubles, but he should not be the starting first baseman for any team serious about contending.

For the rest of the week I am going to be taking a position-by-position look at players, discussing the best and worst in certain measures. For those keeping score at home, we are going to begin with first basemen, position number three in your lineup key. According to our leaderboard page, there were 27 players that qualified for inclusion amongst first basemen, ranging from the brilliance of Albert Pujols to the, well, complete opposite of brilliance produced by Daric Barton. Via WPA/LI, Albert Pujols was over one and a half wins better than any other first baseman. He should be the senior circuit’s most valuable player, though that much is yet to be seen. Here are the top five in terms of context-neutral wins:

Albert Pujols, 6.48
Lance Berkman, 4.81
Mark Teixeira, 4.69
Adrian Gonzalez, 3.43
Carlos Delgado, 3.00

And the bottom five:

Daric Barton, -1.09
Kevin Millar, -0.85
Ryan Garko, -0.48
Paul Konerko, 0.02
Casey Kotchman, 0.22

Interesting how the fourth and fifth worst marks in this metric were still above average, which goes to show just how offensive-minded of a position first base can be. Speaking of offense, Ryan Howard led all first basemen with 48 home runs. Lance Berkman led with 18 stolen bases, which I am still having trouble wrapping my head around. Justin Morneau may not have lit the world on fire with longballs, and may not even be the most valuable player on his own team, let alone the league, but he did lead first basemen with 47 doubles.

James Loney and Conor Jackson tied for the lead with 6 triples apiece; somehow, Ryan Howard managed to hit four three-baggers. Straight out of the not-so-shocking department, Albert Pujols led with 104 walks, and struck out just 54 times. Unfortunately for Albert, Casey Kotchman fanned just 39 times, for the lowest total. But, Pujols posted the highest ISO at .296 and highest OPS at 1.114, so something tells me he wouldn’t let finishing second in least strikeouts amongst first basemen bother him too much.

Mike Jacobs, who hit for plenty of power this year but virtually refused to get on base any other way, swung the most, offering at 54% of the pitches thrown his way. Albert once again topped all first basemen, this time in contact made, as he was able to get his bat on 90% of the pitches he swung at. Kevin Youkilis, formerly nicknamed the Greek God of Walks, is still displaying excellent patience, so it is no wonder he led with 53.47% of pitches seen in the strike zone. After all, if he will not swing at a pitch outside the zone, why throw them with great frequency?

In the fielding department, Mark Teixeira led with a +24, followed by Pujols at +20, the surprising Joey Votto at +19, Lance Berkman at +18, and Carlos Pena at +14. Based on the WPA/LI and fielding data, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, and Lance Berkman were the three best first basemen this year, with the order of Tex and Lance virtually being up to he who decides to arrange them in a given order. Plenty of first-sackers may hit for power, but these three displayed brilliance all around. Lastly, Geovany Soto likely has the Rookie of the Year award in the national league locked up, but Joey Votto had a very, very good year, largely under the radar, displaying both power and solid fielding skills. Hopefully for Reds fans he can build upon this year and not experience any type of slump next season.