Archive for Freddy Garcia

So long as you didn’t bring the party too hard over the Christmas holiday, there’s a chance you remember the article I submitted for the readership’s consideration last week. In said article, I roundly praised research conducted by Lookout Landing’s Jeff Sullivan this past August — research in which he explored the relationship between pitcher contact rates and strikeouts. Moreover, I posted a Top 10 Leaderboard of the starting pitchers (50 IP and up) with the best Contact%.

Well, in the comments section of said article, user Toffer Peak brought to our collective attention a study done by user matthan over at DRaysBay. Matthan is the user name of Matt Hanna, and his work is an exciting complement to Sullivan’s as it gives us some idea of the importance of Out-of-Zone Swinging Strikes (OZSwStr%) relative to In-Zone Swinging Strikes (InZSwStr%).

The relevant article provides all the answers your little heart would desire — complete with a Google spreadsheet of every pitcher from last year — but the relevant content for our purposes is this formula that Hanna concludes is the best fit for calculating Expected Strikeout Percentage (eK%). Said formula goes:

eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

The Adjusted R-Squared is: 91.4%

The surprising result here is the degree to which OZSwStr% is weighted over and above InZSwStr%. Nor does that even account for the fact that the average for OZSwStr% (4.89%) is already about twice as a high as InZSwStr% (2.73%).

Once we adjust for that difference as well, OZSwStr% comes out to roughly 2.5 times more important than InZSwStr%. If I’m being honest, I’ll say right now that that runs counter to what I would’ve guessed. My impression has always been, if a pitcher can throw a pitch past a swinging batter but still place said pitch within the strike zone, then he (i.e. the pitcher) would be truly unhittable. What Hanna’s research suggests is quite the opposite, in fact: A pitcher who is able to induce swings (and misses) at pitches out of the zone is, in fact, most likely to tally big strikeout numbers.

This research is quite relevant to the present interweb site, as FanGraphs carries both O-Contact% and Z-Contact% on every player page and in the leaderboards section.

And though, much like Forrest Gump, I’m not a smart man, I thought it might make sense to create a leaderboard in which O-Contact% (or OZSwStr%) was given its due. To that end, what follows is a Top 10 list of the starting pitchers with 50+ IP who led the league in what I’ll call Adjusted K. In fact, what I did was to find how many standard deviations all such pitchers were from the mean in both O-Contact% and Z-Contact%. I then multiplied the O-Contact% standard deviation by 2.44 and averaged it with the Z-Contact% standard deviation. Here are the results (SDO = Standard Deviations from O-Contact% mean / SDZ = Standard Deviations from Z-Contact% mean):

This list greatly resembles the one we looked at last week — with one exception, that is: Freddy Bloody Garcia. Granted, he only pitched 56 IP through nine starts last year, but it appears to be a skill he’s carried throughout his career, as his 46.5% lifetime mark suggests.

So that’s one thing. Now here’s another question of some interest, I think: Which pitchers posted the biggest O-Contact%/Z-Contact% splits in 2009? In other words, which pitchers are best at getting swinging strikes outside the strike zone despite allowing somewhat frequent contact within it. Truly, this would be a list of pitchers who use their talents most efficiently, getting swings and misses outside of the zone, where they are more valuable. Here’s a list of such pitchers (SD O-Z = Standard Deviation of O-Contact% minus the standard deviation of Z-Contact%):

Some of those guys are what you might describe as a pretty big deal. Carpenter and Wainwright, certainly, were at least part of the Cy Young convo in the National League — and both accomplished the feat while conceding a below-average contact rate on balls in the strike zone.

There are certainly other questions to ask about this work. I’m in Paris right now, though, so I’m probably not gonna ask them for at least a couple days.

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have, over the last several seasons, reignited a rivalry that many have been hoping to see for quite some time. They have also combined for extremely memorable finishes in each of the last two seasons. Entering 2009, the teams once again project to be very close in talent, with the Mets solidifying their bullpen and the Phillies ridding themselves of Adam Eaton. Both of the teams also happen to be four men deep in their respective starting rotations, with a decent number of hurlers competing for the final spots.

With Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the fold, Tim Redding looked to be the de facto fifth starter when he signed early in the offseason. Omar Minaya added some competition, however, by bringing prospect Jonathan Niese to camp as well as inking Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia to minor league contracts with spring training invites. Redding reportedly showed up overweight and has not been terribly impressive so far, giving up nine earned runs in just two innings of work.

Though we should never put too much stock into preseason statistics, you better believe that they play a part in the decision making processes. In 14.2 innings this month, Livan Hernandez has a 3.07 ERA and has not yet surrendered a home run. Sure, his 4.29 K/9 is below average and his success is likely smoke and mirrors, but he hasn’t looked too shabby. His low risk counterpart Garcia has been the opposite, allowing 14 hits and 13 earned runs in just seven innings, vastly reducing his chances of making the big league club. And despite being young, Niese has not looked great either, with seven walks and six earned runs in eight innings. He has shown a knack for fanning hitters, but his control needs improvement before we can consider him to be a viable and dependable major league pitcher.

Then we have Pedro Martinez, who as I wrote in a profile at Baseball Prospectus has seemingly been engaged in a one-sided game of hard to get with his former employers. The Mets apparently have an offer of $1-2 mil on the table for Pedro, and if the Dodgers fail to match these terms, Martinez would prefer to remain in New York. Assuming Garcia does not break camp with the team, and Martinez comes aboard, what do you do? Minaya will have Livan, Redding, Pedro, and Niese and just one spot available. Niese would presumably go back to the minors, but that still leaves Livan, Redding, and Pedro, with Redding being the sole owner of a guaranteed contract.

The Phillies situation is a bit easier in terms of the number of viable candidates left, but the remaining two hurlers have both been very impressive. With Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco out of the hunt, just J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park remain. In 15 innings this month, Happ has a 3.60 ERA with 11 punchouts and just three free passes issued. Those numbers are bested by Park, who has a 1.54 ERA, 11 punchouts and no walks in 11.2 innings.

With the uncertainty surrounding Cole Hamels‘ availability, both Happ and Park could conceivably start the season in the rotation. If Hamels is available right away, the Phillies have a decision to make: which one starts and which one goes to the bullpen? The “logical” decision would be to place Happ in the bullpen to start the season given the absence of JC Romero for at least 50 games. Either way, whichever pitcher loses out will be close behind should the fifth-spot victor struggle.

If you’re a Mets fan, do you want Redding, Pedro, or Livan? And for Phillies fans, Park or Happ? And if you’re a fan of neither, who has the more intimidating name: Balfour or Broxton?

The Mets and GM Omar Minaya have had a very active offseason, most notably acquiring both Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz. Reliever Sean Green and OF Jeremy Reed also came over in the Putz trade, and Minaya inked both SP Tim Redding and IF Alex Cora to low-risk, one-year deals. This week, he made three more signings: one solid, one average, and one that makes little sense given a previous move. Let’s start with the solid.

Freddy Garcia used to be a very good pitcher. From 2002-06, his minimum IP total was 201.1, and he averaged +3.6 wins/season. In 2007, Garcia logged 58 ineffective innings for the Phillies before spending the rest of the season on the disabled list. He did not return until the very end of the 2008 season, when the Tigers allowed him to toe the rubber for three starts. Little can be drawn from his 15 innings of work, but with so many suitors this winter, it seems like a safe assumption that Garcia has recovered from his injury.

Freddy eventually decided to choose between the Mets and Yankees, choosing to sign with the Mets since a greater opportunity to join the rotation existed. The deal is incentive-laden and could prove to be worth $9 mil in value. The exact terms are not yet known, but assuming the base salary is a maximum of $2 mil, Garcia would need to be nothing more than +0.5 wins to break even. In 2007, when he posted a 5.45 FIP in 58 innings, he still produced +0.2 wins, making it extremely likely that he will meet or surpass +0.5 wins this season.

The average signing involves Rob Mackowiak, who inked a minor league deal worth $600K. The versatile Mackowiak played just 38 games for the Washington Nationals last season, playing league average outfield defense with a .224 wOBA. His offensive struggles were not terribly exploited, however, as he only amassed 63 PA. With Alex Cora already on the roster as a backup infielder, should Mackowiak make the club he will likely be used as nothing more than a pinch-runner, outfield defensive replacement. Although Mackowiak may be roadblocked by the move detailed below.

The very questionable move saw Minaya sign former Rockies OF Cory Sullivan to a major league deal worth $600K. Based on reputation, Sullivan is nothing special as a hitter but solid in the outfield. The numbers beg to differ. In his four-year career, Sullivan has averaged -6 runs with the bat and -5 runs with the glove. Numbers defying his reputation does not make this move questionable. No, what makes it questionable is that they already have Jeremy Reed on the roster.

Reed and Sullivan are not the exact same player, but, at the very least, they have very similar skillsets. Since 2005, Reed has been ever so slightly worse with the bat, but equally better with the glove. And this is before even mentioning that Angel Pagan is also on the roster. Yes, Ryan Church may be fragile and Daniel Murphy may not be proven, but loading up on players like Reed and Sullivan, who are a tad overrated as fielders and subpar hitters does not make a whole heck of a lot of sense.

The Mets have definitely upgraded their bullpen this season, but color me unimpressed so far with regards to their offense and rotation uprades.

Well, the regular season is not entirely over, as the White Sox and Tigers play at 2 PM EST today. The south side bunch trails the Twins by one half game in the AL Central, meaning the best they could do is force a tie with a win, leading to a one game playoff. The White Sox are putting the season in the hands of Gavin Floyd, who has definitely exceeded expectations this season. Jim Leyland is handing the ball to Freddy Garcia, former Mariners and White Sox great, who won a ring with the White Sox in 2005.

Garcia spent last season with the Phillies, though most of it was not actually spent with the Phillies, as he missed a large portion of the season due to injury. And, as a Phillies fan, I can attest to the fact that while he did look great in spurts in the several starts he did make, he was more than largely ineffective. He spent the last year and a half or so rehabbing and getting back in shape, hoping to audition for, and impress, a team willing to give him a chance this season.

The White Sox were one of these teams, but Ozzie Guillen felt that Freddy just was not ready yet, and likely would not return this season. Garcia used these words as a motivational tool, driving him to prove he was definitely ready for big league action. Sportscenter hinted that Garcia held some ill will towards Guillen for the comments; I am sincerely hoping this was more of a literary technique by the anchor as opposed to the truth, since Guillen’s comments (for once) were pretty harmless in this case.

He has made two previous starts, compiling 10 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3 HR, 3 BB, 9 K. I will refrain from discussing, in detail, his 4.50 ERA, 6.43 FIP, or 8.10 K/9, since he has made just two appearances, but a solid performance from Garcia, against his old team, could knock the White Sox out of the playoffs. Let’s hope this does not happen, however, or else we will be one step closer to dozens of mainstream newspapers discussing how the Mets with Johan Santana did not get in but the Twins sans-Santana are still alive in October.

Last week, Dave Cameron wrote about the Free Talent All-Stars; players who did not require much return either in personnel or salary to acquire, and how they were performing. Most of these players garnered the moniker “low risk/high reward” because teams are giving up very little for them; perhaps these players will experience a career renaissance and produce at a very high level. I also conducted a study of low risk pitchers in the last issue of SABR’s statistical newsletter, By the Numbers.

This offseason, two particular low risk pitchers seemed to stand out from the pack: Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. Both had lousy 2007 seasons which, when coupled with their expensive contracts, made their performances look even worse. Both, however, had caveats to their struggles. Colon’s numbers were a bit deceiving and Garcia was pitching with a significant injury.

Colon signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox while Garcia is still awaiting his shot at auditioning for several interested teams.

Back in February, Josh Kalk pointed out how Colon’s 2007 statistics were more on the deceiving side, noting that his FIP was over 1.5 points lower than his ERA; he also had a ridiculously low LOB% compared to the rest of his career.

In just two starts for the Red Sox this season, Colon has gone 12 innings, surrendering 11 hits and three walks, while striking out 8 batters. He has won both games and has an FIP of 2.68. Though much too early to proclaim Colon has “found it” he has definitely looked much more in tune than the last couple of years. So what happened in 2006 and 2007?

Well, from 1998-2005 his LOB% was 70.8 or higher; in 2006 it was 66.1% and in 2007 it fell to 63.5%. In that same eight year span his BABIP topped out at .313; in 2006 it was .319 and in 2007 it rose to .364. In 2006 he also gave up 14.9% HR/FB, the highest percentage of his career.

Last year he actually reduced his BB/9 from 2.63 to 1.76 and still managed to post a 1.62 WHIP, meaning he got hit around. As evidenced by his decrease in line drives and vast increase in BABIP it seems Colon was very unlucky last year. Perhaps not unlucky to the point that, in a perfect world, he would have gone 13-3 with a 3.00 ERA but unlucky because his 6.34 ERA did not nearly tell enough of the story.

Colon may not be the dominant force he was at the beginning of his career but he doesn’t need to be to produce at the level at which this Red Sox team expects him to.