Archive for Freddy Sanchez

One of the most enjoyable parts of writing for a site like Fangraphs is “hearing” the banter between writers behind the scenes. After news broke of the Pittsburgh-San Francisco deal that saw second baseman Freddy Sanchez head from the Pirates to the Giants, these comments were made from some of Fangraphs’ finest:

“What the hell?”

“The best pitching prospect of the day doesn’t get traded for Cliff Lee, but for Freddy Sanchez. Awesome. Nice job, Cleveland.”

“My lord, Sabean, what are you doing?”

Just when you thought it was safe to love San Francisco prospects again, general manager Brian Sabean tossed away the club’s second best pitching prospect for an injury-prone, veteran second baseman in his free agent year (although he has an $8 million option that is way too high). Oh, and the Giants organization just gave away its third best pitching prospect (Scott Barnes) to the Indians for a league-average first baseman. Madison Bumgarner is suddenly very, very lonely.

Alderson is just 20 years old and he’s holding his own in double-A. The 6’6′ right-hander also has above-average command and control for his age. He can throw in the low-90s and has a plus curveball and a developing changeup. In 13 double-A starts, Alderson allowed 76 hits in 72.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of just 1.73 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.70 K/9 (which will no doubt rise as he gains experience). The 22nd pick of the 2007 draft had hit a rough patch lately with three straight “meh” starts, but, again, he’s 20 years old and pitching in double-A with exceptional command and control for his age.

Sanchez is currently hitting .296/.334/.442 with six homers and five stolen bases in 355 at-bats. The 31-year-old could slot into the No. 2 hole in the lineup for San Francisco. Defensively, he plays a solid but unspectacular second base, which will help fill a season-long hole for the Giants. Sanchez definitely has an edge on defense, but is his offense really that much better than current second baseman Juan Uribe’s triple-slash line of .284/.314/.431? Is the slight offensive edge plus Sanchez’ glove really worth Alderson?

Sanchez is a nice complementary player, but he definitely should not have cost an A-level pitching prospect. In five years, this (panic?) trade is going to hurt.

P.S. The Pirates just got more value for Sanchez than Ricciardi could drum up for Halladay. That has to burn.

Neil Huntington’s attempt to look like a nice guy ended up with him looking like a bit of a jerk, as details on the contract extensions for Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez came to light. I’m not here to suggest that giving long-term deals to two middle infielders over 30 years of age is a wise move, but the offer to Sanchez at least could be seen as borderline insulting.

Wilson’s offer was for 2-years, $8 million with an option for a third year. Sanchez’s offer covered two years, $10 million while also voiding his $8 million, 2010 vesting option if he attains to 600 plate appearances this year, which looks like a real possibility. Both offers were quickly shot down by the players, and there are some reports these offers were of the “take it or leave it” variety, not starting points to negotiations. So what is each player really worth?

Jack Wilson has been downright groovy with the glove this season, with an UZR of 11 and an UZR/150 of 19. The season prior he was worth 17 runs per 150 games. Hitting-wise, he’s been Jack Wilson with his usual .300 wOBA over 272 plate appearances. This season so far he has been worth 1.8 wins above replacement, making him well worth his hay. Considering past history, he is probably more like a 2-win player going forward, worth $9 million on the non-chilled free agent market. His $8.4 mil option is hardly a bargain, but is about right. With blue light specials being made for players of Adam Everett’s ilk being made over the winter, I can see the Buc’s desire to see if they can’t get a discount. It will be interesting to see what sort of a deal Wilson will get over the off-season.

Freddy Sanchez has already been worth nearly $12 million to the team just coming off of the break, double what he is getting paid now. Why on earth would he take a $3 million pay cut when all he has to do is stay in the lineup? Granted, Sanchez was terrible last year and it isn’t like he is without his foibles — he doesn’t run all that well, doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for much power. He’s been slightly above average in the field, with a career UZR/150 of 5. So maybe he is somewhat of an empty .300 hitter, but over his past three healthy seasons, his WAR totals have been 3.2, 4.8, 3.8 and now 2.6 this season. The man is hardly a $5 mil a year player.

It seems rather doubtful a team would be willing to pick up Wilson’s option, and he is not going to be a Type A or B free agent this winter. Wilson is still due about $3 mil for the rest of the season, so if the Pirates can get a “C” grade prospect or maybe two in a trade, Huntington should suck it up and say “yes”. Sanchez on the other hand could help a team not only win this season but the following, so the Pirates should be getting something shiny in return. Probably not a top 25 caliber prospect, but a nifty prospect to add to Huntington’s collection.

Pirate fans, brace yourselves for a new and much less-inspiring double play combo very soon.

When I posted my article on Kosuke Fukudome yesterday, loyal reader VegasWatch pointed out that the Cubs outfielder’s opening day home run likely contributed the bulk of his 0.52 clutch score. Therefore, after being given the label of “clutch” the net sum of all of Kosuke’s clutchiness would not add up to much.

The formula for clutch, as defined in the glossary here, is:

Clutch = WPA/pLI – WPA/LI

For further clarification, pLI refers to the average leverage index of all game events for a given player while WPA/LI refers to context neutral wins; in other words, what the player produced regardless of the situation he entered into. This formula calculates the performance level of a player in crucial situations relative to his standard production. If a player has a .330 batting average in high leverage situations but hits .330 everywhere else, he is not considered clutch. This is not to say he lacks talent, but rather he just produces at a high level in all situations and isn’t necessarily stepping his game up in crucial plate appearances.

The Kosuke example made me wonder which other players were greatly benefiting from a big play. Looking at the top eight clutch scores before the stats updated last night, I tracked the biggest individual play for each of the eight and compared the clutch score of that singular play to the net sum of their other plays. This way we can see which player’s clutch labels are truly derived from one big play as opposed to those who have been a bit more consistent in stepping up. Here are the eight, with their overall clutch score and the three required components of their biggest play – note that the pLI refers to the season average, not the game average:

Pat Burrell (1.33): 0.899 WPA, 3.56 LI, 1.09 pLI
Melvin Mora (1.30): 0.418 WPA, 5.14 LI, 1.04 pLI
Freddy Sanchez (1.27): 0.363 WPA, 4.65 LI, 1.03 pLI
Skip Schumaker (0.93): 0.287 WPA, 4.29 LI, 1.04 pLI
Jeremy Hermida (0.86): 0.294 WPA, 2.61 LI, 0.94 pLI
Bobby Abreu (0.84): 0.512 WPA, 5.44 LI, 0.92 pLI
Manny Ramirez (0.81): 0.482 WPA, 2.38 LI, 0.95 pLI
Joe Mauer (0.80): 0.364 WPA, 4.35 LI, 1.07 pLI

With these figures, here is the breakdown of the big play clutch vs. the clutch in all other plate appearances:

Pat Burrell: 0.57 big play, 0.76 other
Melvin Mora: 0.32 big play, 0.98 other
Freddy Sanchez: 0.27 big play, 1.00 other
Skip Schumaker: 0.21 big play, 0.72 other
Jeremy Hermida: 0.20 big play, 0.66 other
Bobby Abreu: 0.46 big play, 0.38 other
Manny Ramirez: 0.30 big play, 0.51 other
Joe Mauer: 0.26 big play, 0.54 other

Pat Burrell had the most clutch “big play” when he hit a walkoff two-run home run against the Giants on May 2nd. However, according to these numbers, Abreu actually benefited the most from his play; he is the only one whose big play exceeded the net sum of all other clutch plays.

On the flipside, Freddy Sanchez and Melvin Mora have been very consistent in raising their performance level in high leverage situations. When talking about a player’s clutchiness, though, it really only takes one or two big plays to cement the label. We could remove the one big play and look at all other performances but since one play can change a fan’s perception of clutchiness that just would not be fair; regardless of whether or not the clutch benefits from a huge play or a group of smaller plays added together, the bottom line is that these players have helped their team win games by stepping up in crucial situations.