Archive for Free Agent

Our look at the free agent class of 2009 ends with a trip to Jeterville, AKA shortstop, a position once filled with some of the best offensive and defensive players in the sport. The players about to hit the market have a similar theme amongst themselves: unusually good or bad seasons in certain regards that are bound to regress moving forward. We have two of the top ten fielders at the position in 2008, as well as a player who is used to topping everyone in fielding at the position. Additionally, there are a few players that should not be playing the demanding position anymore as well as two players with seasons on offense moving in different directions.

The youngest of the group is Cesar Izturis, who, in 135 games with the Cardinals produced a -1.71 WPA/LI on the heels of a .263/.319/.309 line. His OPS has been fairly consistent over the past three seasons meaning he just is not very valuable on offense. His defense, however, earned him the #4 spot at the position this season, at +19 plays above average. At 29 years old, Izturis could realistically sign a two or three year deal somewhere, based on his defense, but his offense could be a very big problem. If there is anything he can take away regarding his offensive production this season it would be that his walk rate was higher than ever before.

The elder statesman of the group is Omar Vizquel, who, at 42 years old, still has “it” in the field. In 92 games, Omar was +9 plays above average defensively, good for eighth at the position. He has a 5.2 mm option on his contract for next season, but can be bought out for $ 300,000. If the Giants choose to move in a younger direction, which I thought was the reason for not bringing Barry Bonds back, and buy Vizquel out, I would hope he hangs up his glove rather than stick around until his only solid skill deteriorates. Offensively, he was worth over two wins less than an average player, so defense is all he has left.

Aside from these two, the remaining seven players range from 30-34 years old. Juan Uribe is 30, and spent most of this season at third base due to Joe Crede’s injuries, but was a +3 and a -7 at shortstop in 2006 and 2007. He also ranged from 16-23 home runs from 2004-07, before hitting just 7 this season. At .247/.296/.386, Uribe had a WPA/LI of -0.66, which, coupled with his declining fielding skills, just does not make him a very attractive commodity. I would expect him to have a job next season, but as more of a platoon player or pinch-hitter/defensive replacement on an NL team.

Rafael Furcal is 31, and is going to get a big payday, even though his ridiculously productive 36 regular season games are a very small sample and largely unsustainable. He hit .357/.439/.573, and was worth almost 1.5 wins above average despite playing in April and then the final week of September. His .217 ISO was the highest it has ever been, but his numbers were built upon a .380 BABIP, which will not repeat. Defensively, the injuries have hurt him recently, but he was the definition of league average this season. In the previous two seasons, however, he registered a +4 and +6. Expect him to land a big 4-yr deal, with the offense declining and the defense impoving.

Adam Everett, 32, is everyone’s favorite saber-darling, since his average or below average offense is more than made up for by his incredible defense. In 2006, the guy was +41 plays above average. That fell to +18 in 2007, before this season’s -1 in Minnesota. He played just 48 games, but it is somewhat clear that his fielding skills are not what they once were. If he cannot get back to that +10 to +15 range, he will not be worth much.

At 33 years old we have Alex Cora and Edgar Renteria, one valued for his defense and leadership and another coming off of an extremely disappointing season. Cora was a -3 in the field and about a half-win less effective offensively than an average hitter. With a .270/.371/.349 line, it is clear that Cora has the ability to hit and get on base, but he does not combine that with any semblance of power. Renteria has seen his ISO fall from .144 to .111 over the last three seasons, a mark not much higher than Cora’s .079. A .270/.317/.382 line might be acceptable if you were Everett and significantly better in the field than anyone else, but Renteria has gone from a +6 to a -1, to a -9 this season. His reputation will land him a job somewhere else, and he couldn’t possibly be worse than this season, but it’s pretty evident that the Braves won that trade.

Lastly, we have David Eckstein, who was also profiled in the second base edition of this series. He cannot field anymore at shortstop, at 12 plays below average, and he really cannot hit much either, as his -0.70 WPA/LI explains. He does not strike out much, and his 8.7 BB% is the highest of his career, but a switch to second base should be mandatory if he wants to stick around. He should not be the starting SS for any team serious about contending. Furcal and Renteria will likely get the hefiest paychecks of this group, but guys like Cora, Izturis, and Everett will still be able to contribute.

Earlier this week we saw that the class of free agent rightfielders was quite small, at just six players, two-thirds of whom have options on their contracts for 2009 likely to be picked up. Then, moving over to leftfield showed that there are several potent offensive threats, all of whom, well stink defensively and should not be playing leftfield anymore. Today, our trip goes up the middle to centerfield, the much tougher defensive position in the outfield. Unfortunately, this year’s free agent class is not very impressive, so yes, the title to this post has sarcastic connotations.

Mike Cameron is the cream of the crop, so to speak, and is 36 years old. He played in 120 games for the Brewers this season, missing some time due to a performance enhancing related suspension, but was worth just about 1.5 wins above an average hitter. He posted an impressive .243/.331/.477 slash line, complete with 25 home runs and a career high ISO of .234. In the field, Cameron ranked 8th amongst centerfielders at +8 in John Dewan’s system. He has a 10 mm option for 2009 but can be bought out for $750,000. I would tend to think Cameron’s option will be exercised as he was productive both offensively and defensively and would be available for the entire season.

The next best free agent centerfielder, via 2008 WPA/LI, is the 39-yr old Jim Edmonds, who was worth just over one win above an average hitter. In 111 games split between San Diego and Chicago, Edmonds hit .235/.343/.479. His .244 ISO was closer to his power prime with the Cardinals, and his walk rate rose above the percentages from the previous two seasons. He was always lauded for his fielding and is even considered by some to be the best defensive centerfielder in the last few decades, but this is no longer the case. His +- system numbers have drastically declined since 2006, going from a +2, to a -11, to a -26 this season. He handled righties quite well and the declining defense was not exploited as much in Wrigley Field, so he could still be productive for at least another year, but he should be used in a platoon as opposed to full time starting duty.

After Cameron and Edmonds, we have Mark Kotsay, Corey Patterson, and Scott Podsednik, none of whom should be starting regularly. Kotsay and Podsednik are both 33 years old, but had seasons going in different directions. Kotsay was slightly better offensively, with a .276/.329/.403 line, compared to Patterson’s putrid .205/.238/.344, but Patterson was tied with Cameron at +8 while Kotsay registered a -16. Both were below average offensively, with Kotsay posting a WPA/LI of -0.85 with Patterson at -1.63.

I do not understand why Patterson is still given regular playing time, but hopefully this year was the final straw. Even his base-stealing has gotten worse, going just 14/23. If there is anything positive to take away from his season it would be that his strikeout rate dropped, but he rarely walks and rarely hits. A defensive replacement scenario would make sense, or a pinch-running capacity, but nothing more.

Podsednik only played 93 games this season for the Rockies, posting a .253/.322/.333 line. Scottie Pod has a -0.45 WPA/LI but a +3 in centerfield. In the previous two seasons, he played leftfield and posted a +8 and +7, respectively. His base-stealing has dropped off recently as well, meaning he is likely to be better suited for a defensive replacement role than a full-time starter. The pickings are slim in centerfield this year, especially given the likelihook of Cameron’s option being exercised. Perhaps we will see some trades this offseason or some prospects promoted to full time duty.

This morning we took a look at the right fielders set to hit the free agent market, so now we will shift to the opposite side and examine this year’s class of free agent left fielders. There are significantly more pure left fielders, or players more suited to play left field than the amount mentioned earlier in right field, but only a few truly stand out. Wily Mo Pena is the youngest of the group while Moises Alou, who has hinted at retirement, is the elder statesman. The fourteen players are listed below, with their 2008 games played, slash line, and WPA/LI:

Name                 Age     G            Slash  WPA/LI
Wily Mo Pena          27    64   .205/.243/.267   -1.56
Adam Dunn             29   158   .236/.386/.513    3.06
Juan Rivera           30    89   .246/.282/.438   -0.62
Milton Bradley        31   126   .321/.436/.563    3.33
Pat Burrell           32   157   .250/.367/.507    2.77
Gabe Kapler           33    96   .301/.340/.498    1.34
Emil Brown            34   117   .244/.297/.386   -0.94
Fernando Tatis        34    92   .297/.369/.484    0.77
Jay Payton            36   127   .243/.291/.346   -1.61
Raul Ibanez           37   162   .293/.358/.479    1.58
Manny Ramirez         37   153   .332/.430/.601    6.10
Garret Anderson       37   145   .253/.325/.433    0.29
Luis Gonzalez         41   136   .261/.336/.413   -0.32
Moises Alou           42    15   .347/.389/.388    0.26

Pena has a 5 mm club option for 2009 as well as a 2 mm player option, and Anderson has a 14 mm option with a 3 mm buyout. If the Angels decide to exercise the options of both Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero, they will be spending 29 million dollars next season on aging, declining outfielders. Keeping Vlad around makes sense given he can still rake, but Anderson has lost a ton of productivity with the bat and is, at best, an average fielder. Buying him out for 3 million makes sense if they can find a nice upgrade.

At just 29 years old, Dunn has established himself as a durable and consistently productive offensive threat. He hit 40 home runs on the nose for the fourth straight season, and now has 40+ dingers in five straight years. His low .262 BABIP should regress a bit, meaning his line is more likely to be in line with 2007’s productivity. He and Burrell are three true outcome players, with Burrell being three years his elder. Both should land big contracts. From 2004-2008, Burrell’s OPS has ranged from .821-.902, with the lowest coming in that injury-plagued 2004 season. He and Dunn may be terrible defensively but put them in the DH spot and 30+ home runs with an OPS above .850 ain’t too shabby.

Milton Bradley served primarily as a DH in 2008, and despite an injury, was absolutely on fire, producing a .999 OPS. Unfortunately, this was largely built upon an unsustainably high .396 BABIP which is sure to regress. He has talent, as has always been the case, but not this much talent. He could find himself in the outfield of another team, but he seemed to fit in perfectly with the Rangers. Gabe Kapler is just 33 years old but feels like a 40-year old given the crazy turns his career has taken. In 96 games was a -2 in LF despite being +7 in CF, and put together an .838 OPS.

Fernando Tatis wanted to get back to the major leagues in order to earn enough money to build a church in his hometown. Not only did he earn the amount he desired, but he proved he could still produce at the highest level, smacking 11 home runs with an .853 OPS in under 100 games of work. He was also +3 in the field in left field. Jay Payton, on the other hand, should not be given a job this offseason. The 36-yr old has seen a decline in OPS of .749 to .637 from 2005-2008, decreasing each season. He is +6 in the field, but giving players like he and Kevin Millar significant playing time is exactly why the Baltimore Orioles have not been able to compete recently.

This brings us to our interesting 37-yr olds: Raul Ibanez and Manny Ramirez. Somehow, Ibanez has been around since 1996, producing quite nicely offensively, without becoming anywhere near a household name. He may be a horrid defender in recent years, but his offense has been consistent with OBP/SLG tandems in the last three years of: .358/.479, .351/.480, .353/.516. Manny, on the other hand, was worth over six wins above average this year and continued to show why he is one of the greatest hitters of all time. Scott Boras mentioned he may be seeking an iconic contract, along the lines of 5/150, which is absurd, but he definitely has at least a couple extremely productive seasons left in the tank. If he stays in the National League his numbers will look even better.

He didn’t like the in-your-face style of baseball along the East Coast, so it is unlikely he signs with the Yankees or Mets, but perhaps the Angels cut bait with Garret Anderson and offer Manny a 4/100 deal like he was originally seeking. The Phillies will have an opening in left field as well, assuming they cannot resign Pat Burrell, so somebody like Tatis or Kapler may be interesting options to platoon with Geoff Jenkins or Matt Stairs. Regardless, Emil Brown and Jay Payton should be avoided, and it is somewhat likely that Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou will hang up their cleats.

Our look at the free agent class of 2009, split by position, continues as we venture over to first base, where Albert Pujols calls home. There are eight free agent first basemen available this offseason, but many more questions exist regarding these players than certainties. The only certainty, in fact, is that Mark Teixeira is the cream of the crop, and far more attractive (in a baseball sense) than any of his compadres. In fact, after him, the next youngest players are five years his senior. And of those players ranging from ages 34-38, a couple may be kept via options in their contract, and those remaining look more like backup pieces or potential new members for AARP than likely contributors to a franchise. Here is the list:

Name                   Age       G             Slash      WPA/LI
Mark Teixeira           29     157    .308/.410/.552        4.69
Richie Sexson           34      96    .221/.321/.382       -0.61
Sean Casey              34      69    .322/.381/.392       -0.15
Doug Mientkiewicz       35     125    .277/.374/.379        0.27
Kevin Millar            37     145    .234/.323/.394       -0.85
Carlos Delgado          37     159    .271/.353/.518        3.00
Tony Clark              37     108    .225/.359/.318       -0.18
Jason Giambi            38     145    .247/.373/.502        2.66

Giambi, the elder statesman of the group, has a 22 million dollar option on his contract for next season. The Yankees bringing him back is largely contingent on whether or not they ink Mark Teixeira to a big deal, which they can and should do. If Tex ends up in another uniform, one more year of Giambi would not really hurt anything, as he is still very productive and still hit 32 home runs with an OPS above .850 this past season. His BABIP was .257, which should call for regression, however, his BABIPs in 2006 and 2007 were .251 and .264, so perhaps this year’s number is more normal than it seems.

Teixeira, as mentioned, is the cream of the crop. His ability to get on base and hit for power are fantastic, and he is one of the best fielding first basemen in baseball. AKA, he is the total package, and at just 29 years old, looks primed for a big 5-6 year deal. Last season his OBP/SLG was .400/.563; this season, .410/.552. He hit 33 home runs and 41 doubles, was extremely durable, and his +24 at first base led the position this year in fielding.

Delgado has a 12 million dollar option on his contract that the Mets should almost certainly exercise given that he carried the team on his shoulders for the second half of the season. His 38 home runs and 32 doubles are even more impressive when it is remembered how poorly he performed early on. He takes pride in his defense, but this was a down year in that category. After posting a -4 and +1 in 2006 and 2007, he fell to -15 this year, one of the worst at the position. It is unclear whether this was a fluke or a sign of things to come, but if he can hit 35+ home runs with an OPS above .850 for the Mets next season, he will be worth all of that 12 million dollars.

Sexson is an interesting case, because his career entering 2007 looked great. He hit a ton of home runs, showed an ability to get on base despite striking out a lot, and at 32 years old, had at least a few more good seasons left in the tank. He also looked to be around the league average defensively. His 2007, however, was disastrous, as his fielding dropped to -15, and his slash line looked worse than Michael Bourn’s from 2008. A .217 BABIP can carry most of the blame for that, but even with a regression to .275 in 2008, Sexson only managed a .221/.321/.382 line with 12 home runs in 96 games. A line like that might be okay for a defensive replacement with occasional starting duty, but not for an everyday starting first baseman. He could easily ink a 2-yr deal given his reputation from pre-2007, but a safer bet would be an incentives-laden contract.

Aside from these four, we are left with Millar, Mientkiewicz, Clark, and Casey. Clark should probably retire at this point, as even though he still possesses the ability to get on base, his power has diminished over the last couple of seasons, and he is not that big of a threat off the bench. He could provide veteran leadership for another season, but, if anything, I see him as a mid-season signing somewhere and nothing more. Mientkiewicz is still a very solid defender, but his offense is not good enough to merit a full-time starting job somewhere. In the past, the Pirates would sign a guy like him to be their starting first basemen, so hopefully they can show they have some brains now and realize he is better suited to be a late innings replacement with occasional starts, and nothing more.

Casey is only 34, but he seems like he is 38 or 39 given his position on the bench over the last couple of years. A .368 BABIP helped massage this year’s statistics, accrued in limited action, but again, he is much better suited to come off the bench at this juncture of his career. Millar seems like a great clubhouse guy, and that could earn him some money and playing time next season, but like Clark, he should be looking towards retirement. He still managed to hit 20 home runs and 25 doubles, but he should not be the starting first baseman for any team serious about contending.

Yesterday, we took a look at the free agent catchers and third basemen about to hit the open market. Now, we will look to the keystone cornermen, a fancy literary term that allows me to delay writing just simply, second basemen. Our 2009 Free Agent 2B Class ranges from 29-41 in age, with some solid veterans and nice complementary pieces, a couple of whom exploded in the second half. There are, however, no overt stars in this class, no equivalents to Mark Teixeira or CC Sabathia at their respective positions. A couple of these players might even retire, so their free agent status would not likely matter too much, but without further ado, here they are:

Name                   Age        G             Slash       WPA/LI
Felipe Lopez             29      143   .283/.343/.387        -0.17
Orlando Hudson           31      107   .305/.367/.450         0.52
Mark Ellis               32      117   .233/.321/.373        -0.19
Jerry Hairston           33       80   .326/.384/.487         0.98
David Eckstein           34       94   .265/.343/.349        -0.70
Tadahito Iguchi          34       85   .232/.292/.306        -1.23
Ray Durham               37      128   .289/.380/.432         1.03
Mark Loretta             37      101   .280/.350/.383        -0.05
Damion Easley            39      113   .269/.322/.370         0.29
Mark Grudzielanek        39       86   .299/.345/.399        -0.04
Jeff Kent                41      121   .280/.327/.418         0.73

Lopez, the youngest of the group, had performed so poorly during the first 2/3 of the 2008 season that even the Washington Nationals cut their ties with him. He latched on to the St. Louis express and proceeded to hit .385/.426/.538 over his final 43 games. A poor fielder, registering -14 in the +- system this year and a -6 last year, Lopez could be a nice combo SS/2B player somewhere, but shouldn’t be starting for any team seriously trying to make a run to the playoffs. His stretch with the Cardinals was borderline incredible, but it appeared to be nothing more than regression taking full form, making up for his putrid production in Washington.

Hudson, the O-Dawg, is a very consistent performer both offensively and defensively. He is not going to OPS above .900, but he has shown improvement over the last few years and has posted an OPS of .817 in back to back seasons. Couple that with very solid defense–a +20 and +13 before this year’s -4–and you have a very good second basemen. If he can show his injuries are merely a figment of the past, he should command a nice-sized four year deal somewhere.

Mark Ellis had a terrible season with the stick, but was the second best fielding keystone cornerman in baseball this year, at +26. Now, that is a far, far distant second from Chase Utley’s +47, but Ellis is the real deal with the glove, posting a +13 in 2006, +19 last season, and this year’s +26. If anything, he is getting better on the field. He did manage to hit 12 home runs this season, and his .249 BABIP did not help his offensive statistics, so if he is going to regress and continue his solid defense, he will be quite valuable.

Jerry Hairston had an interesting season, as Dave mentioned not too long ago, as he posted an .871 OPS, much higher than any other season of his. Granted, it took place in just 80 games, but perhaps you can see how this guy continues to get work. He played all over the field in 2008, with average to above average defensive skills, and, in just 80 games, was worth one win above an average player. David Eckstein, on the other hand, is not very good offensively, and his defensive skills have been eroding. After a +2 in 2006, he posted a -14 and -12 at shortstop. He did manage a +2 at second base this year, so it might be time for the champion of grit to permanently move to second base if he wants a starting job.

Even at 37 years old, Ray Durham was still immensely productive with the bat. Being a switch-hitter at a relatively poor offensive position, with oodles of veteran presence to dish out to youngsters, Durham probably has another 2-3 years left before he hangs up his cleats. If he was producing OPS counts in the .650s it might be different, but he basically had the same season as Orlando Hudson this year, if not better. He isn’t a solid fielder, by any stretch, but he will definitely find a home, likely in extended backup duty.

Damion Easley is the kind of player who elicits “he’s still around?” reactions all across the country. He may be 39, and his overall numbers might not be that solid, but he has shown a knack for hitting lefties extremely well. This drastic split deteriorated a bit in 2008, so he might not look as valuable as he may be, but I am sure he will find a home for a one year deal to platoon and hit off southpaws.

This brings us to Grudzy and Kent, two players who have at least hinted at retirement. Both are old, poor fielders, and losing many steps offensively. Kent is still a scary player off the bench, but at 41 years old, what else does he have to prove? If he cannot field and he is posting a lower SLG than Ray Durham, the only thing productive about him is his reputation as the second baseman with the most career home runs. Grudzielanek played a less than stellar 86 games for the Royals, and with his below average defense, is not worth a whole lot anymore. If I had ultimate control of the baseball universe, Kent, Grudzielanek, and Easley would retire, Loretta would become a utility player in the National League, Hudson and Ellis would get the bigger deals of this group, Eckstein would move to 2B, and Iguchi/Hairston/Lopez/Durham would get backup roles, occasionally with extended duty.