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Unexpected wOBA Stars

Almost three months into the season, more statistics are beginning to stabilize, and certain stars are emerging. It has become clear that some players, whose success was initially thought to be the byproduct of small sample trickery, are legitimately on their way to an All-Star caliber season. Some of these players are in the process of establishing new levels of performance. Some are merely reverting to a previously established high level of productivity that was thought to be long gone. Others are living up to their billings as prospects worth monitoring, perhaps reaching that destination sooner than was originally thought.

And in the cases of the players highlighted in this post, some are unexpectedly leading their teams in wOBA. Here are five players having fantastic seasons, but whose names are surprising to see atop their team wOBA leaderboard.

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A Look at the NL Rookie Race

Yesterday, we took a look at the top rookie performers in the American League, led by Detroit’s Austin Jackson. Today, we’re breaking down the key first year players in the National League through the first six weeks of the 2010 MLB season. It’s a pretty impressive list already, and we still haven’t seen the likes of Washington’s Stephen Strasburg or Florida’s Mike Stanton.

Rookies were considered based on a minimum of 50 plate appearances, four starts, or 10 relief appearances. Last year’s NL Rookie of the Year award went to Florida’s Chris Coghlan, followed by J.A. Happ (Philadelphia) and Tommy Hanson (Atlanta).

Tyler Colvin | OF | Chicago: The former No. 1 draft pick is having a nice debut despite being a surprise addition to the ’10 club. Colvin has shown more patience in the Majors (10.2 BB%) than in the minors, which has helped his overall numbers. He currently has a triple-slash line of .275/.345/.608 and an ISO rate of .333, which has been helped by eight extra base hits out of his 14 total base knocks. The strikeout rate is a worrisome at 29.4 K%.

Ike Davis | 1B | New York: Davis is in the Majors a lot sooner than a lot of people expect but he’s held his own with a .415 wOBA in 18 games. Overall, he has a triple-slash line of .316/.437/.544. Davis has shown a willingness to take a walk with a rate of 18.3 BB%. He’s also done his fair share of swinging and missing with a strikeout rate of 29.8%. The line-drive rate of 31.7% is pretty darn impressive for young Ike.

Ian Desmond | SS | Washington: Desmond is holding his own so far this season as the Nationals’ starting shortstop. He has a triple-slash line of .264/.323/.462, and his wOBA sits at .347. Along with three homers, the shortstop has added three stolen bases. Desmond’s strikeout rate is high (23.1 K%) for someone with modest power. He’s been solid so far with the glove.

Alcides Escobar | SS | Milwaukee: Escobar is an interesting rookie. He’s basically known for hitting for a hollow batting average with good speed and defense. So far in 2010, Escobar has a .222 average, a career-high .141 ISO rate, just one steal attempt in 27 games, and a modest defensive showing. After nabbing 46 bags in ’09, it’s borderline criminal that the young infielder isn’t utilizing his speed better.

David Freese | 3B | St. Louis: I won’t go too in-depth on Freese here, as I looked at him last week. Freese is currently hitting .320/.393/.476 with a .387 wOBA in 29 games. His power output has been modest for the hot corner (.155 ISO) but he has a history of posting strong batting averages in the minors.

Jason Heyward | RF | Atlanta: Heyward had his ups and his downs during the first month of the season, which is to be expected for a 20-year-old prospect making his MLB debut. What’s impressive is how quickly he’s made adjustments. Heyward currently has a .436 wOBA and his triple-slash line is up to .291/.410/.616 with eight homers (.326 ISO) in 105 at-bats. He does have some work to do defensively.

Tommy Manzella | SS | Houston: Manzella was holding his own for a little while in April but his triple-slash line has dipped to just .195/.235/.260 in 83 at-bats. His approach at the plate is clearly an issue, as he has a walk rate of just 2.4% and his strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 32.5%, which is far too high for a player with a .065 ISO rate. On the plus side, he’s played OK defense.

Gaby Sanchez | 1B | Florida: Sanchez, 26, is quietly going about his rookie season. The first baseman has a solid triple-slash line of .272/.368/.424 in 106 at-bats. His wOBA sits at .352. Sanchez has done a solid job of getting on base with a walk rate of 12.3%, which is right up there with his minor league numbers. He’s done OK with the strikeout rate at 20.7%, but his power is below average for a first baseman, so it would be better off around the 15% range.

Jaime Garcia | LHP | St. Louis: Garcia is another player that was highlighted recently. The lefty mixes four pitches well (fastball, cutter, curve, change) and he currently has positive pitch values on all four of his offerings. Along with his 89-91 mph fastball velocity, Garcia gets excellent sink on his heater and he currently has a ground-ball rate of 62%, which is second in the Majors to Atlanta’s Tim Hudson. He needs to make sure that he continues to keep his control in check.

Mike Leake | RHP | Cincinnati: Leake cannot boast a +60% ground-ball rate like Garcia, but his is still above average at 56.0%. The right-hander has continued to improve as the season has gone on. Currently, he’s given up just 32 hits in 40.2 innings of work and his xFIP sits at 4.11. He’s done a nice job of tossing a five-pitch mix at the National League hitters, which helps make up for his average fastball velocity.

Jenrry Mejia | RHP | New York: I cannot adequately express how disappointing it is to see Mejia being misused in New York. The 20-year-old right-hander has appeared in 15 games out of the bullpen and currently has a 4.61 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 5.93 K/9. He’s shown a respectable fastball-slider combo, but his change-up (along with his overall control) is not getting any better by pitching a total of 13.2 innings in just under six weeks.

Jon Niese | LHP | New York: Niese has not received a ton of attention from traditional rookie watchers, likely due to his one win in six games. We all know there is much more to a pitcher’s game than wins (Less just ban the stat for individuals). The lefty has a solid strikeout rate at 7.46 K/9 and his control has improved significantly (3.09 BB/9) over his ’09 debut. Niese’s ground-ball rate is just shy of 50%. The base knock has been an issue for him as he’s allowed 46 hits in 35.0 innings.

Predictions

The Next Big Call-up: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
2010 First Half Star: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta
2010 Second Half Star: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta
2010 Overall NL ROY: Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta


Florida Marlins: Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Michael Hill
Farm Director: Brian Chattin
Scouting Director: Stan Meek

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Say what you will about the lack of overall depth in the system beyond the first two or three prospects on this list, but the Marlins organization is one of few clubs that will have drafted (or originally signed) all 10 players on the list. That says something for the organization’s scouts and front office. The club definitely is hurting in the pitching department, but a lot of that comes from rushing its young arms in past seasons.

1. Michael Stanton, OF, Double-A
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I personally don’t meet many 6’5” 20 year olds in my everyday life, so it’s easy to see where Stanton’s massive power comes from when he takes to the field. The outfielder posted a .283 ISO rate in high-A ball in ’09 and followed that up with a rate of .229 in double-A. Stanton’s numbers dropped pretty significantly in other areas, though, after the promotion. His wOBA went from .433 to .344. He also saw his BABIP drop from .333 to a .288. His strikeout rate jumped from 25.0 to 33.1%, while his walk rate plummeted from 13.5 to 9.4%. Stanton obviously has massive power potential as a future MLBer, but it will be his contact rate that dictates just how big of an impact he has… The good news is that he has plenty of time to make some adjustments in his approach, as he has two more full seasons before he has to be added to the 40-man roster (and begin to burn through his three minor-league options).

2. Logan Morrison, 1B, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 22nd round – Louisiana HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

If not for an injury-riddled season (He appeared in just 79 games), Morrison probably would have received playing time in Florida at some point during the ’09 season, especially after Gaby Sanchez disappointed in a limited opportunity. Morrison does not project to be a power-hitting first baseman, but he is more of a gap hitter (15-20 homers) that makes consistent contact and hits for a good batting average. He broke out in a big way in ’08 by hitting .332/.402/.494 (.377 BABIP) while playing in a pitchers’ league. In ’09, Morrison hit .277/.411/.442 in 278 at-bats at double-A. Although his average took a hit over the previous season, the first baseman did see his walk rate jump from 10.5 to 18.5%, and his BB/K was an outstanding 1.37. He even has the ability to swipe a few bases with heads-up base running.

3. Matt Dominguez, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s been an up-and-down career for the former first round draft pick but we saw an encouraging sign or two in ’09. Dominguez spent the majority of the year in high-A and hit a modest .262/.333/.420 with a .346 wOBA in 381 at-bats. The third baseman, with a reputation for having a strong glove, has seen his walk rate improve each season since signing in ’07 and it reached a career-high of 9.1% in high-A. It even jumped up to 12.6% during a small-sample-size display (31 games) in double-A at the end of the season. Dominguez also suffered from a low BABIP of .295 in ’09. If he’s going to be an impact player, he needs to improve his work against right-handed pitchers, as his OPS is just .725 (compared to .831 vs southpaws). Dominguez projects to be an average hitting third baseman in the Majors with a good glove.

4. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Majors
DOB: September 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Already 26, Sanchez may have missed his window of opportunity to seize the starting first-base gig in Florida. Injuries and inconsistencies plagued him early in ’09, although he finished with solid overall numbers in triple-A: .290/.375/.478 in 314 at-bats. Like Morrison, Sanchez is not your typical slugger, although he has more present power than the younger prospect (.188 ISO in triple-A). His walk rate of 11.5% was actually his lowest rate in four seasons and his strikeout rate was a solid 13.7%. He’s not flashy but Sanchez could be a cheap first base option for a few years. He could also slide into a pinch-hit/utility infield role on a championship-caliber team, as he’s also seen some time at third base (but isn’t very good there).

5. Ryan Tucker, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental first round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, change-up, slider

You’re not a Florida Marlins’ pitching prospect if you haven’t dealt with injuries, and Tucker got his prerequisite injury out of the way (hopefully) in ’09. He appeared in just six games. The right-hander’s woes came on the heels of a season that saw him make his MLB debut with 13 appearances. He showed his inexperience by allowing a FIP of 6.46 and his fastball was very ineffective, according to his Pitch Type Value score of -2.11 wFB/C. If he can sharpen his command, though, the 91-96 mph pitch could be a real weapon against MLB hitters. He’s spent much of his time pitching out of the rotation, but Tucker appears destined for the bullpen, where he can focus on a two-pitch mix.

6. Bryan Peterson, OF, Double-A
DOB: April 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – University of California-Irvine
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:

I highlighted Petersen as a potential breakout candidate for ’09 but it didn’t happen for him. With that said, he still had a nice season in double-A and that breakout could still come. Overall, he hit .297/.368/.413 in 431 at-bats at double-A. Petersen maintained a solid walk rate at 11.4% and his strikeout rate continued to drop, bottoming out at 15.3%. His power output dropped too, though, and his ISO was just .116. He also struggled on the base paths and was caught 12 times in 25 attempts. If Petersen’s power does not improve (He hit 23 homers in ’08), he’ll likely end up as a fourth outfielder in the Reed Johnson mold. The loss of fellow outfield prospect John Raynor to Pittsburgh – during the Rule 5 draft – could help either Petersen or Scott Cousins see playing time in the Majors in 2010. Fun Fact: Petersen went to the same high school as Matt Dominguez (and former Red Sox outfielder Dwight Evans).

7. Scott Cousins, OF, Double-A
DOB: January 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – University of San Francisco
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

A flashier but less consistent version of Petersen, Cousins is also a left-handed hitter but, unlike Petersen, he struggled to hit southpaws (.226/.297/.383) and projects as more of a platoon player. Overall, he hit .263/.323/.448 in 482 at-bats at double-A. Cousins showed some pop with an ISO of .185 and he also stole 27 bases in 36 attempts. His walk rate was a little low, but respectable, at 8.0% and his strikeout rate was high at 22.0%. With 31 doubles, 11 triples and 12 homers, he does a little bit of everything.

8. Brad Hand, LHP, Low-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Minnesota HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Hand slipped on a lot of prospect lists after his 2009 season and it’s not hard to understand why, but he still has a lot of potential. The southpaw was drafted out of Minnesota, and northern prospects are traditionally rawer than those that live in climates where they can play ball all year round. And he’s not a soft-tossing lefty carving up beer-league hitters with a mid-80s fastball and pinpoint control; his fastball has shown some modest zip at times. He gave up a lot of hits, with 130 allowed in 127.2 innings, but his 4.23 FIP was better than his 4.86 ERA. His walk rate was 4.65 BB/9 (and he also threw 22 wild pitches) but his strikeout rate was encouraging at 8.60 K/9. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%, so with better command he could see that improve. Hand had a foundational season and I look for him to start making a name for himself in 2010… I’m dying to use this headline: Brad… Give yourself a Hand. (That’s the Cistulli in me).

9. Isaac Galloway, OF, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 8th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I hummed and hawed about Galloway’s inclusion on the Top 10 list. I lean more heavily on stats that any other minor-league writer out there (Law, Goldstein, Callis, Sickels, etc.) so it was hard to justify Galloway as a Top 10 prospect on numbers alone, but his tools certainly make him a player to watch in a rather thin system (as far as depth goes). His wOBA was just .305 and his triple-slash line was an ugly .268/.293/.382 in 340 low-A at-bats (despite a .355 BABIP). Galloway, just 20, posted a sad walk rate at 3.4%, up from 2.0% in his debut in ’08. The ISO was just .119 and his strikeout rate was high at 26.2%. If the organization is smart, it will start Galloway out at low-A again in 2010 with a quick trigger finger to high-A if he shows significant improvement.

10. Jhan Marinez, RHP, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Marinez makes the cut thanks to his fastball, which can occasionally creep into the mid-90s. I would, though, like to see him improve on his ground-ball rate, which was just 39.5% in ’09. He deserves credit for reaching high-A in ’09, as he threw just 21.0 innings during the previous two seasons (both in rookie ball). Marinez’ walk rate needs to improve, as it was 4.19% in ’09 but he survived the control issues, in part, because of the .232 BABIP rate that he allowed. The majority of his command/control issues come against left-handed hitters, as he posted a walk rate of 5.40 BB/9 against them this past season. The organization seems to introduce a new hard-throwing reliever each season, so it will be interesting to see if Marinez can “stick” as a solid bullpen option for the future while holding off some other pitchers like Daniel Jennings, Tom Koehler, and Elih Villanueva.

Up Next: The Boston Red Sox