Archive for Game Preview

As the reader will already know, my colleagues here at FanGraphs have gone to great lengths to provide learned previews for each of the postseason games thus far. Certainly, the writing and the analysis, it’s quite good — nor would I dare change it.

Having said that, though, I will level criticism on one ground — namely, for their (i.e. my colleagues’) inability to predict the future, or even to offer a prediction of same.

For example, consider Dave Cameron’s preview of tonight’s Cincinnati-Philadelphia game. Looking at the contest from the Reds’ point of view, Cameron offers some notes on Roy Oswalt‘s excellence, Bronson Arroyo’s relative inferiority, and how Dusty Baker might be best suited to leverage his bullpen against the Phillies.

That’s fine — all of it — but one thing is conspicuous by its absence from Cameron’s preview: the exact score of the game and the specific events leading to said score.

With all due respect to Cameron, I’m forced to ask: Is this still 2009, or something? If FanGraphs is going to lead the way in baseballing analysis, Dave, we’re gonna have to go the extra mile.

It’s with those shortcomings in mind that I offer to the reader this “Preemptive Review” of Game Two of the Cincy-Philly Divisional Series — in which the author (I, Carson One-Million-Dollars Cistulli) provide a review of a game that has as yet to occur.

You can find an image of the game’s exact box score below and a can see both the box score and play-by-play by clicking here. In the meantime, however, here are some things that will definitely, no-questions-asked occur tonight:

1. Roy Oswalt will strike out 15 batters, en route to a 5-2 victory.
It’s a true fact!

2. Chase Utley will hit two homers, one of the inside-the-park variety.
It’s been pre-ordained!

3. Aaron Harang will pitch 0.1 IP in relief.
Doubt it at your own risk!

4. Laynce Nix will twice be “frozen” on a strike three.
It’s getting cold in here!

5. With two outs in the sixth inning, Drew Stubbs will limit Placido Polanco to a single on a line drive “smoked” to right-center field
Why even question it?!?

Read the rest of this entry »

The editors of FanGraphs invite you to put the following in your pipe and smoke it.

Or just read it with your eyes. You choose.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Friday, August 13
Milwaukee (Yovani Gallardo, 9) at Colorado (Jorge de la Rosa, 9) | 9:10pm ET
• Casey McGehee entered Wednesday’s game versus Arizona batting .272. Entering play today, that number’s risen to .285 — mostly on account of he’s gone 9 for his last frigging 9. “But, Cistulli,” maybe you’re saying, “didn’t you even know that batting average is so 1997?” “Well,” I reply, “it also makes up about 80% of a player’s on-base percentage, so stick it.”
• Jorge de la Rosa currently sports a 5.01 ERA, but only a 3.73 xFIP. Impress your friends and/or enemies by reciting this loudly in a public place.
• If I had my druthers: We could all impress each other without even trying.

Toronto (Marc Rzepczynski, N/A) at Los Angeles Americans (Scott Kazmir, 2) | 10:05pm ET
• Hear me now and believe me whenever you want: this game isn’t being featured because of Scott Kazmir’s sweet pitching skills. Kazmir has below-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates. No, the real pleasure will be watching Toronto, currently the only team with a collective ISO greater than .200 (specifically, .210), take massive hacks at Kazmir’s junk*.
• Jose Bautista hit his league-leading 36th dongpiece last night. Hear him roar!
• Ah, man: I love the Rze and so can you. Like Tom Cruise in a certain 1983 cinematic masterpiece, Marc Rzepczynski has all the right moves. He doesn’t qualify for a NERD score yet, but has a 3.41 xFIP against a 7.15 ERA. And he’s only 25. And even the vowels in his name are consonants.
• Peter Bourjos! Peter Bourjos! Peter Bourjos! (Yes, this is what passes for baseball analysis these days.)

*And by “junk,” I mean his pitches, of course.

Saturday, August 14
San Diego (Mat Latos, 10) at San Francisco (Madison Bumgarner, 7) | 4:10pm ET
• Damn, Mat Latos, you’re only 23 and have one of the best xFIPs (3.56) among starting pitchers.
• Damn, Madison Bumgarner, you’re better than I thought you were going to be.
• Damn, Ryan Ludwick, who died and gave you a career 7.9 UZR/150 in right field?

Oakland (Trevor Cahill, 5) at Minnesota (Brian Duensing, 4) | 7:10pm ET
• Neither Cahill nor Duensing are real edge-of-your-seat exciting pitchers. Both are below average in terms of swinging-strike rates, and hence K/9. But they’re also pretty-really good at inducing grounders. On the season, Cahill is sporting a 56.4% groundball rate; Duensing, 52.4%. How many will they induce tonight?!? Tune in to find out!
• In case you didn’t hear, Oakland recently promoted prospect Chris Carter to the big club. I had the opportunity to see all 6’5″, 230 of Carter this spring when Triple-A Sacramento visited Portland, Ore. Here was my first thought: “I could totally take that guy.” Here was my second: “I must be pretty sauced right now.”
• If I had my druthers: I could totally take that guy.

Boston (Jon Lester, 9) at Texas (Colby Lewis, 6) | 8:05pm ET
• Lester has groundball rate of 54.3%. That’s surprising to me, and, because I’m not that special, I’m guessing it surprises you and you and you. How’s he doing it? Well, I asked the internet that question — specifically, StatCorner’s awesome scouting tool — and here’s what I found. (All pitches are graded on 20-80 scouting scale in each cat).

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
FB	58%	93	70	60	75
SI	16%	89	80	65	50
CB	14%	77	65	45	70
CH	8%	85	60	25	75
Overall	--	--	70	50	75

What we find here is that, with the exception of Lester’s sinker, he’s getting near league-best groundball rates on all his pitches. Now you know!
• Colby Lewis is dynamic. That’s it: he’s just frigging dynamic.
• If I had my druthers: Someone would design a plane or something modeled after Colby Lewis’s dynamism.

Sunday, August 15
Cleveland (Justin Masterson, 8) at Seattle (Felix Hernandez, 10) | 1:05pm ET
• Fact One: Justin Masterson has 63.4% groundball rate.
• Fact Two: The Cleveland infield has had a whole lot of Jason Donald and Asdrubal Cabrera and Mark Grudzielanek and Anderson Hernandez and Jhonny Peralta and Andy Marte up in it.
• Fact Three: Literally, all those guys have negative UZRs. Yeah, it takes some time for UZR to stabilize, but that’s a bad trend, at the very least.
• Fact Four: Justin Masterson has a .347 BABIP against.
• You fill the blanks, America.

Baltimore (Jake Arrieta, 1) at Tampa Bay (Jeremy Hellickson, N/A) | 1:40pm ET
• He’s only pitched 14 innings, so whatever, but here are the (very impressive) nerd scouting numbers for Hellickson. (Again, per StatCorner, on the 20-80 scouting scale.)

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
FB	51%	91	65	25	80
CH	27%	81	80	80	35
CB	18%	75	80	80	80
Overall	--	--	80	70	80

• Who’m I kidding? I’m just watching this so the computer-robot known as R.J. Anderson doesn’t freak out on me.
• If I had my druthers: R.J. would someday get his wish to become a real boy.

Milwaukee (Manny Parra, 7) at Colorado (Ubaldo Jimenez, 8) | 3:10pm ET
• Dear Future Self, Is Casey McGehee 18 for his last 18 now? What’s it like where you are? Do they have frozen yogurt still?
• Manny Parra is a lefty who throws 92-94 mph and has a killer split-finger pitch. He’s also someone who’s been cursed by God, as his career .352 BABIP-against confirms.
• Experiment: Sit at a sports bar and tell the dude next to you that Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t the best pitcher in the majors. Wait for his reaction.

You know what’s the worst? Thinking! And you know what’s doubly the worst? Having to think even for a second about what games to watch over the weekend.

Well, now — thanks to cutting-edge research (that, and the internet) — you don’t have to.

Hail, nerds! These are your games of the weekend.

Texas at Minnesota | Friday, May 28 | 8:10 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Colby Lewis
57.1 IP, 9.10 K/9, 3.77 BB/9, .263 BABIP, 38.4% GB, 7.9% HR/FB 3.98 xFIP

Twins: Kevin Slowey
49.2 IP, 6.89 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, .350 BABIP, 28.1% GB, 9.6% HR/FB, 4.63xFIP

Watch For
• Colby Lewis. Duh.
• Of 113 qualified pitchers, Kevin Slowey has the absolute lowest groundball rate in the majors. Here are some people who’re happy about that: Ian Kinsler and Vladimir Guerrero and Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz and Justin Smoak.
• Smoak is currently sporting a slash line of .173/.287/.317, but here’s what nerds know: he’s not that bad! Smoak’s BABIP is a paltry .171. StatCorner places his regressed wOBA (wOBAr) at .367.

The Other Reason I’ll Be Watching This
Because my friend Dan, a Twins fan, invited me to.

What You’re Saying to Me
What is that my business?

What I’m Replying Back
Sorry, guy. I just thought it’d be possible to reach out and forge a real human connection. Like in that one movie where two people from totally different worlds — he’s a ruthless entrepreneur, she’s a small-town librarian — forge a real human connection.

If I Had My Druthers
• Americans would stand up and take notice of Justin Smoak.
• Americans, while standing up and noticing Justin Smoak, would resist the urge to call him the Smoak Monster.
• Americans would start being polite, and stop being real.

Houston at Cincinnati | Saturday, May 29 | 7:10 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Astros: Bud Norris*
43.2 IP, 11.13 K/9, 5.36 BB/9, .400 BABIP, 36.8% GB, 11.4% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP

Reds: Aaron Harang
58.2 IP, 7.36 K/9, 1.99 BB/9, .353 BABIP, 41.4% GB, 16.9% HR/FB, 3.79 xFIP

Watch For
• Norris and Harang. The pair are currently two of the least lucky pitchers (per ERA-xFIP) in the majors. Norris has a 6.80 ERA; Harang, a 5.98 ERA. Impress your friends and/or standers-by with this knowledge!
• The Reds! They’re good. Offensive Rank (per WAR), 2009: 15th in the NL. Offensive Rank (per WAR), 2010: 5th!
• Jay Bruce regressing real hard back to (and then above) the mean. Bruce, 2009: .221 BABIP, 97 wRC+. Bruce, 2010: .348 BABIP, 127 wRC+.

If I Had My Druthers
• Aaron Harang would stop getting dumped on by Fortune.
• Miguel Cairo would not both start at first base and occupy the most important spot in the batting order.
• The part of the game where Houston’s supposed to bat wouldn’t exist.

*As reader Jason notes in the comments sections, Norris has actually been sent to the DL recently. In his place will be Gustavo Chacin. That’s less interesting than Norris. Sorry, dogggz.

Los Angeles (NL) at Colorado | Sunday, May 30 | 3:10 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw
59.0 IP, 9.61 K/9, 5.03 BB/9, .284 BABIP, 40.1% GB, 4.8% HR/FB, 4.25 xFIP

Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin
32.0 IP, 8.44 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, .249 BABIP, 41.9% GB, 6.7% HR/FB, 3.81 xFIP

Watch For
• Clayton Kershaw. Of starters with more than 20 IP, Kershaw is fourth — behind Tim Lincecum (13.5%), Brandon Morrow (13.0%), and Dan Haren (12.8%) — in swinging strike percentage (11.9%). His fastball, a pitch that league-wide gets swing-and-misses only about 7 percent of the time, is getting whiffs 11.8 percent of the time.
• Jhoulys Chacin can throw the frig out of a baseball and is only 22 years old.
• Chris Iannetta’s back in the majors after hitting .349/.447/.698 in his 70-something Triple-A plate appearances.

More on Kershaw
Matthew Carruth does these cool things for Lookout Landing where he looks at each pitcher’s basic repertoire and then grades it on the 20-80 scouting scale. The grades are determined by league percentiles in swinging strikes (K), strike rate (BB) and ground balls (GB) for each pitch.

Here’s what Kershaw’s looks like:

Pitch 	%	Sp 	K 	BB 	GB
FB 	71% 	94 	80 	60 	60
CB 	18% 	73 	45 	20 	60
SL 	6% 	82 	65 	35 	20
Overall	--	--	75	35	50

If I Had My Druthers
• Kershaw would just throw all those fastballs.
• The world would wake up and smell the Chris Iannetta.
• Actually, that’s gross.

This is your conscience speaking. If you have plans, cancel them: there’re like a hundred sweet baseball games this weekend.

[Note: All minor league numbers are courtesy of StatCorner. HR/BIA = Home Run per Ball in Air. MLB average for starters is 6.5%. MiLB average is I-don’t-know-what.]

Toronto at Tampa Bay | Friday, April 23 | 7:10 pm ET
Jays: Brett Cecil (L)
11.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 1.64 BB/9, .394 BABIP, 39.4% GB, 0.0% HR/BIA, 1.75 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: 4.49 (FAN) 4.67 (CHONE) 4.77 (ZiPS)

Rays: Matt Garza (R)
24.0 IP, 7.13 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, .211 BABIP, 39.3% GB, 4.0% HR/FB, 3.87 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.87 (FAN) 4.09 (CHONE) 4.10 (ZiPS)

This’ll be Cecil’s first MLB start of the year after having been recalled earlier in the week from Triple-A Las Vegas for the injured Brian Tallet. Cecil has some impressive seasons on his minor league resume — seasons where he struck people out, didn’t walk them, and got groundballs. That’s what we in the industry call a “triple threat.”

One note about Garza: I’m just not that in to him. Is that okay to write? Looking at his Pitchf/x numbers now, I see he’s got some wiggle on his slidepiece. He always seemed more of a chucker to me. On the other hand, I’m a little bit of an idiot.

If I had my druthers, Little Mike McCoy would start at second tonight. And John Buck would hit 16 home runs. One or the other.

Saint Louis at San Francisco | Friday, April 23 | 10:15 pm ET
Cards: Jaime Garcia (L)
13.0 IP, 6.92 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, .158 BABIP, 69.7% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 3.38 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.69 (CHONE) 4.59 (ZiPS)

Gigantes: Tim Lincecum (R)
20.0 IP, 10.80 K/9, 1.35 BB/9, .270 BABIP, 49.0% GB, 5.9% HR/FB, 2.24 xFIP
Projected FIP: 2.48 (FAN) 2.72 (CHONE) 2.68 (ZiPS)

Lincecum’s starts are basically the pornography of the baseball nerd world — or, at least that’s how it felt during his most recent game, last Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It got to the point in that start — during the fourth and fifth innings, especially — where he could’ve told whichever Dodger was batting that he was about to throw his change-up, and it wouldn’t’ve mattered. Here’s how those innings went down:

Bottom 4th: LA Dodgers
– M. Kemp struck out swinging
– G. Anderson struck out swinging
– R. Belliard flied out to shallow right

Bottom 5th: LA Dodgers
– B. DeWitt singled to shallow center
– A.J. Ellis walked, B. DeWitt to second
– C. Blake hit for C. Monasterios
– C. Blake struck out swinging
– J. Carroll struck out swinging
– J. Loney grounded out to second

There are four swinging strikeouts there, and three of them (Kemp, Anderson, Carroll) came on the change. Overall, he registered eight swing-and-misses on the pitch while throwing it only 20 times. That’s 40 percent. That’s also nutso. If and when Lincecum cuts his hair, I’ll jump real hard on his bandwagon.

Of course, none of this is to overshadow what Cardinal Jaime Garcia has done over his first two starts. This author was surprised to see the frenzied heights Garcia’s groundball rate has reached over the lefty’s first two starts. Turns out, it’s not that crazy. In 2007, over 103.1 innings with Double-A Springfield, Garcia recorded a 56% GB rate. A year later, in Triple-A Memphis, he recorded a 55% GB rate in 71 innings. If he records anything like a decent strikeout-to-walk split, he’s gonna be be somebody.

If I had my druthers, Allen Craig of St. Louis and Andres Torres of San Francisco would both play tonight. Those guys are my dogggz. Yeah, that’s right: three Gs and a Z.

Fresno at Portland | Saturday, April 24 | 10:05 pm ET
Grizzlies: Madison Bumgarner (L)
13.0 IP, 6.23 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, .417 BABIP, 42.3% GB, 14.3% HR/BIA, 6.51 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: 3.92 (FAN) 4.99 (CHONE) 4.03 (ZiPS)

Beavers: Josh Geer (R)
18.0 IP, 4.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, .271 BABIP, 44.3% GB, 6.5% HR/BIA, 4.48 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 4.97 (CHONE) 5.41 (ZiPS)

You’ve undoubtedly heard of Giants prospect Madison Bumgarner. If not, here’s his story in a nutshell: first, he was a sweet prospect; then, he lost like 6 MPH on his fastball; then, people were like, “OMG” and “WTF?” Anyway, he’s still only 20 and still the number two prospect on both Baseball America’s and also our own Marc Hulet’s respective prospect lists for the Giants.

The man who’s number one on each of those lists is Fresno catcher Buster Posey. A couple notes on Posey. First, he’s hitting the turkey stuffing outta the ball right now in the PCL — to the tune of .346/.443/.462 in 61 PAs. Second, Baseball America invokes the name Joe Mauer when attempting to describe the sort of player Posey is/might one day be. Third, his real name is actually Gerald Demp Posey. Neither you nor I am shocked to hear that he’s from Georgia.

If I had my druthers, Matt Antonelli — the pride of Peabody, MA — would magically return from an injury to his hamate bone (which is very clearly not even the name of a real human bone). I’d settle for a donger off the bat of Lance Zawadzki, though.

For more on the Portland Beavers and their glistening cast of characters, do consider pointing your browser to this season preview-y type thing.

Detroit at Texas | Sunday, April 25 | 3:05 pm ET
Tigers: Rick Porcello (R)
15.1 IP, 5.87 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, .398 BABIP, 57.4% GB, 5.6% HR/FB, 4.30 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.34 (FAN) 4.91 (CHONE) 5.13 (ZiPS)

Rangers: Colby Lewis (R)
17.1 IP, 9.35 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 40.0% GB, 4.8% HR/FB, 4.68 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 3.99 (CHONE) 4.39 (ZiPS)

In case you didn’t notice, Colby Frigging Lewis is pitching this afternoon. Much like the great Cyclone roller coaster of Coney Island, Lewis’s early season exploits have been made of wood located in Brooklyn up and down. Impressive? The righty’s 11.4% swinging-strike rate (which would’ve placed him around the top of last year’s leaderboard in that category). Less impressive? That only about 42% of his pitches are finding the zone (while league average typically sits around 50%). Lewis’s project now is twofold: first, attack hitters more authoritatively; second, use the changepiece to control lefties.

Tonight also presents the opportunity to ogle Detroit’s pair of rookie starters, center fielder Austin Jackson and second baseman Scott Sizemore. The former has managed to slash .311/.373/.443 through his first 67 Major League PAs, although the 37.7% K rate and .500 (!) BABIP are screaming “regression to the mean” right in my ear. The latter, Sizemore, is batting a more modest .275/.362/.350. On the plus side, he’s the only Sizemore in the Majors not to’ve taken weird pictures of his naked body in a bathroom mirror.

Win some, lose some, is the message there.

Cleveland at Oakland | Sunday, April 25 | 4:05 pm ET
Indians: Justin Masterson (R)
15.0 IP, 12.00 K/9, 4.20 BB/9, .433 BABIP, 59.5% GB, 14.3% HR/FB, 2.80 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.34 (FAN) 4.91 (CHONE) 5.13 (ZiPS)

Athletics: Gio Gonzalez (L)
15.0 IP, 9.60 K/9, 6.00 BB/9, .347 BABIP, 45.0% GB, 8.3% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.33 (FAN) 4.57 (CHONE) 4.88 (ZiPS)

Masterson enters the weekend with the third-lowest xFIP among qualified pitchers. “Qualified to do what?” maybe you’re asking. “To dominate right-handed batters,” is my answer. Another thing you might be saying is “Hey, Cistulli: small sample size much?” And to that I reply, “I’ve never heard those words in my life. The numbers tell me he’s the third best pitcher in the Majors, and I believe them without question.”

All-Joyer Alert! Three of baseball nerdom’s most exciting players — Adam Rosales, Ryan Sweeney, and Kurt Suzuki — take the field tonight. Watch as Rosales fills in admirably for the injured Mark Ellis! Watch as Sweeney attempts to defeat Colby Rasmus for the title of Most Baseball-y Looking Baseballer! Watch as Suzuki does everything just well enough not to be noticed at all!

If I’ve learned one lesson from my life on the streets, it’s that I’m not so special. It’s not a pleasant revelation, this. Though I’m neither a psychologist, nor do I even play one on TV, I feel totally comfortable stating publicly that “feeling special” is probably pretty high up there on the list of things humans want/need. Even so, there is one distinct benefit of this difficult news, and it’s this: if ever I have an idea, I can bet that someone else has probably had it, too.

So when I thought to myself recently, “Hey, you know what’d be cool? If there were a daily preview thing at FanGraphs” — well, the only reasonable conclusion I was able to draw is that probably about a gabillion other people have thought the same thing*.

*One of these gabillion people actually turns out to be FanGraphs contributor and Unbearable Math Snob Jack Moore, who will — I joke you not — be previewing the Sox/Rays Patriots’ Day game in these electronic pages roughly one hour from now.

With that, I present to you here the first installment of something I think I’ll call “One Night Only.” The idea isn’t necessarily to provide a complete statistical primer for a single game — and it’s definitely not to “predict” the day’s winners or any specific performances or anything like that. Rather, the idea is to identify a game or games or I-don’t-know-what about the day in baseball that might be of interest to the curious fan.

Will this be a daily venture? Oh God, no. As a cardholding layabout, I’m expressly forbidden from putting forth the kind of effort that such an undertaking would require. But I think it’s something that might happen more than once a week. That sounds reasonable for the time being.

Of course, the form could change drastically and without notice. For the time being, however, it’ll probably look a lot like this:

Rockies (Aaron Cook) at Nationals (Craig Stammen), 7:05 ET
While frequently a great pitching matchup is the main draw for a game, such is not the case here. Craig Stammen is an exercise in meh-dom. Aaron Cook is slightly more interesting — not only for his groundballing ways but for the increased whiff rate he’s posted on the early season (9.3% currently versus 5.9% career). Still, Cook is mostly a known quantity, and it’s not the most exciting quantity on the block.

So what’s there to see here?, maybe you’re asking.

Justin Maxwell, is the answer.

Maxwell turns 27 later this year, but between his five-tool profile, decent plate discipline, and injury-plagued minor league career, still has prospect status. He’s listed at 6-5/235 — which, by comparison, is an inch taller and 15 pounds heavier than the very menacing Jason Heyward. (Note: I actually don’t know whether it’s Heyward’s size or his scary robot sunglasses that makes him so frightening. I must research this further.)

In 137 career plate appearances — eight of which have come in the last four or so days — Maxwell has posted a line of .250/.336/.475, good for a 120 wRC+. That’s decent stuff, and not entirely shocking given his minor league numbers.

All in all, between his athleticism and contact issues, Maxwell probably figures to become the poorest man’s Mike Cameron. It’s possible that his defense is comparable. CHONE doesn’t like him this year, pitting him below average, but Baseball America (per this year’s Prospect Handbook) rates him Maxwell as “an above-average defender in center field with excellent range and instincts.”

One problem: there’s no guarantee Maxwell’s gonna play today. He’s not in a strict platoon with Willie Harris in Washington’s wide open right field, but it’s platoon-ish. That’s fair. Maybe Ubaldo Jimenez can just find some way to throw another no-hitter.