Archive for Garret Anderson

Since he was drafted back in 1990 by the then-California Angels, Garret Anderson has enjoyed a fine, respectable career. The three-time All-Star established himself as a steady two-to-three WAR player with the Halos in his mid-to-late twenties. During the Angels’ World Series-winning 2002 season, Anderson contributed 3.6 WAR and he followed up with a five-win campaign in 2003.

That was a long time ago, though. Anderson was a sub-optimal starter for the Angels from 2004-2008, combating numerous nagging injuries and averaging about 0.9 WAR per season. Things got even worse last year after he departed the LAA organization — Anderson was 0.9 wins below replacement with the Atlanta Braves in 2009. This past March, the Dodgers picked him up on a minor league contract. And, as Dave Cameron noted in his commentary on the Scott Podsednik trade, Anderson has been all sorts of awful:

Podsednik is more of a role player than an everyday guy, but he’s good enough to be a useful part timer on a team that needs one. And, more importantly, he gives the Dodgers a reason to stop using Garret Anderson.

It’s hard to overstate how bad Anderson has been this year. He’s been worth -13.8 runs in just 112 plate appearances, a historically awful offensive performance. He’s just completely finished as a major leaguer, but because he has the veteran label, Torre has continued to use him.

G.A. now has 160 plate appearances, and his lumber has been worth -14.1 runs. The 38-year-old’s triple-slash is .184/.208/.276, and his wOBA is .211.

Just how bad has Anderson’s “hitting” been compared to the game’s all-time out-making luminaries? To get an idea of where his slack bat places historically, I turned to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index Tool. I searched for hitters from 1901 to 2010 who posted a 32 OPS+ or worse (Anderson’s currently got a 32 OPS+) during a season in which they had at least 160 plate appearances.

There have been 150 player seasons meeting that criteria since 1901, with Boston Brave Frank O’Rourke’s 1912 taking the title of most punch less performance over that time frame. Let’s focus on the players who have been the pitcher’s best friend since the turn of the millennium. Believe it or not, Anderson’s sordid season isn’t actually the worst we’ve seen in 2010:

2000: Todd Dunwoody (Royals), 29 OPS+ in 195 PA
2001: Donnie Sadler (Red/Royals), 18 OPS+ in 211 PA
2001: Brandon Inge (Tigers), 24 OPS+ in 202 PA
2002: Jorge Fabregas (Angels/Brewers), 27 OPS+ in 169 PA
2003: Ryan Christenson (Rangers), 30 OPS+ in 186 PA
2004: Doug Glanville (Phillies), 30 OPS+ in 175 PA
2006: Paul Bako (Royals), 28 OPS+ in 167 PA
2006: Tomas Perez (Devil Rays), 32 OPS+ 254 PA
2008: Tony Pena Jr. (Royals), 7 OPS+ in 235 PA
2009: Aaron Miles (Cubs), 20 OPS+ in 170 PA
2010: Brandon Wood (Angels), 10 OPS+ in 184 PA
2010: Garret Anderson (Dodgers), 32 OPS+ in 160 PA

Brandon Wood has “bested” Anderson. He’s got the 13th-worst OPS+ among players with 160+ PA since Theodore Roosevelt took over as U.S. president following William McKinley’s assassination. Anderson places in a tie for 141st. So, he’s got that going for him.

With Podsednik and Xavier Paul both better options to fill in for the injured Manny Ramirez (Reed Johnson is due back soon, too), Anderson just doesn’t have a place on the Dodgers’ roster. The club can’t afford to keep on trotting him out there when he’s making outs like few others have in the history of the game.

For years now an automatic rubric of sorts has been in place to determine the Hall of Fame eligibility for hitters: launch 500+ home runs or amass 3,000+ hits. If either of these milestones are reached, the player has been more than likely to eventually find himself enshrined in Cooperstown. With the recent influx of power, however, several players with questionable credentials have either surpassed the 500 HR benchmark or have at least put themselves in solid position to do so in the next year or two. Players like Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado will finish their careers with more than 500 longballs and Jim Thome may very well reach 600, yet none of these three are considered Hall of Fame locks. And if Sheffield finishes at 518 HR, is he that much more worthy than Fred McGriff and his 493 gopherballs?

The 3,000 hit plateau has not been put under as much scrutiny because producing such a total is not necessarily considered as tainted. In a few years, however, a 20% chance exists that this milestone may no longer signal an automatic berth into baseball’s hallowed hall. Why 20%? Well, because Garret Anderson, he of the 2,368 hits, has a 20% chance of reaching 3000. Using Bill James’ Favorite Toy, Anderson is expected to play for another three seasons at an average of 148 hits/season, thus ending his career at 2,812. The 20% shot at 3,000 in no way locks him in but does acknowledge the definite possibility of such an event occurring.

If he reaches 3,000 hits, which I hope happens, the benchmark will lose its credibility because Garret Anderson is not a Hall of Fame player. Granted, my view of the HOF as an historical document of sorts designed to showcase the can’t-miss players of a certain era may differ from that of others, but regardless of our views I am extremely confident that everyone would agree Anderson is not of the HOF-ilk. Why do I hope he gets to the aforementioned milestone? Because if the credibility of the milestone is weakened with regards to the Hall of Fame, perhaps situations wherein aging players hurt their team’s production in order to reach the milestone will be lessened, if not eradicated.

Did Craig Biggio really need 3,000 hits to earn his way into the Hall of Fame? Not in my eyes. Did he hurt the Astros in the process of reaching the milestone? Yes, because he prevented more productive players from accruing playing time at the expense of a milestone relatively meaningless to his HOF chances. This is what bugs me about the milestones: if you need a specific number for everyone to believe you belong, chances are you do not belong.

The Hall of Fame is certainly about numbers but it is also about impact. Sandy Koufax came nowhere near 300 wins, and was only effective in 6 of his 12 seasons, yet he was a no-doubter. Garret Anderson is 36 yrs old, somewhere between a +0.7 and +1.0 win player this season, and will be pretty lucky to find work next season barring an abnormally strong 2009 campaign. Still, I’m holding out hope that he lasts for another few seasons, gets his 3,000th hit, effectively destroying the credibility of the milestone in the process. 3,000 hits is a tremendous feat for any hitter to accomplish, but it should in no way signal an automatic berth into the Hall of Fame without the impact of the player taken into context as well.

Continuing with our look at the Type B free agents available on the market right now, we will now venture into the land of offense. Eleven eligible free agent hitters were classified as Type B players by Elias this year. We will cover six of them now, and the remaining hitters tonight. The players of interest right now are: Moises Alou, Garret Anderson, Milton Bradley, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mark Grudzielanek. Bradley is the youngest of the bunch, but that isn’t saying much given his age of 31. This group has also experienced its fair share of injuries and decline.

Last season, their salaries ranged from Gonzo’s $2 mil with the Marlins to Griffey’s $12.5 mil from the 9-yr deal he signed back in 2000. Anderson made a lusty $12 mil as well, while Alou received $8.5 mil for very limited duty and Grudzielanek made $4 mil to play the keystone for the Royals. Bradley produced the best season of these six players and made just $5.25 mil. Suffice it to say, those on the high end of this group will receive lesser contracts while Bradley should see a somewhat significant raise. How do they look for the 2009 season?

Health has been an issue for Alou in recent years, as he has not played 150+ games since the 2004 season with the Cubs. Since then, he has participated in 123, 98, 87, and 15 games respectively. The guy can still rake, as evidenced by wOBA marks exceeding .385 from 2004-07, but his inability to stay on the field vastly reduces his value. If Moises can play around 90 games next season while amassing 300 PA, he could be worth around +0.80 wins.

At fair market value, that amounts to a one-year deal worth $3.7 mil. Unfortunately for Alou, the wide array of corner outfielders on the market this season drives down the price, meaning players like Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu, who have better health histories and projections, could be had for much cheaper fees than, say, last season.

Garret Anderson has been covered here a couple of times, but he is the lone corner outfielder who actually projects better in the field than as a designated hitter. His defense projects more positively than his offense moving forward which says more for his offensive decline than defensive prowess. Anderson projects to be worth +0.75 wins next season, good for $3.6 mil. Something tells me he will sign somewhere for more than that, but given the amount of available outfielders, his price may legitimately be driven down this far.

Bradley produced a stellar season with the stick in 2008, despite missing some time with injuries. He is somewhat of a conundrum when it comes to the defensive side of valuations. See, Bradley has talent with the glove, as his UZR numbers will show, but it seems that playing the field fuels the injury fire and keeps him off the field and out of the lineup. Regardless, he has by far the sunniest projection for next season, at around +2.9 wins.

This calls for a $13.9 mil salary for a one-year deal. Again, given the amount of outfielders available, as well as the deal Pat Burrell recently signed for (AAV of $8 mil), it isn’t likely that Milton will earn anywhere near that fee. The Cubs have shown the most interest, and a 3-yr/30 mil deal similar to that recently signed by Raul Ibanez may be in the cards. He will have to prove himself capable of staying on the field long enough to play the field before his eventual contract can truly be evaluated.

Next up comes Luis Gonzalez. Gonzo has had a solid career that I will, in no way, try to detract from. However, after a 2008 season in which he actually cost the Marlins money, it is time to hang up the cleats. With a +0.50 win projection and a fair market value of $2.3 mil, not enough upside exists to merit signing him for anything other than veteran leadership and/or backup outfielder/pinch-hitting duty. Teams may be better-served to simply call up a prospect to fill the latter void.

As much as it pains me to say this: Griffey is now virtually a replacement player. He has been awful defensively lately while showing a strong decline with the bat. His representatives are attempting to pin a poor 2008 showing on a persisting injury kept hidden, but he currently projects to just +0.10 wins. Even if his supposed injury hindered his performance, I cannot imagine it bumps his projection up to anything more than +0.50 or +0.60 wins. These figures are still well below average. He is a no-doubt first ballot Hall of Fame player, but unless he is willing to accept a fee of $3 mil or under, not even his leadership will cause the deal to make sense.

Lastly, we have Mark Grudzielanek, who looks like a +1.6 win player in 2009. This would match his 2008 win value, even though his projection calls for around 90 games and 450 PA. He is a half-win below average on offense while playing close to +5 run defense at second base. He made $4 mil in 2008 and has tossed around the idea of retirement, but would be worth near $7 mil at fair market value. While players like Gonzo or Griffey realistically should retire, but likely won’t, Grudzy may be the opposite.

Tonight, we will review the remaining five Type B free agent hitters and come up with our end value rankings. So far, Milton Bradley is far and away the leader, with second place Mark Grudzielanek coming in at about 1.3 wins less valuable.