Archive for Gavin Floyd

One of the statistical terms we mention quite a bit here when evaluating players is regression. The given definition of the word is to go back or return to a previous state. With regards to baseball players, we use the word to describe what is likely to happen to players either over- or underachieving at any given point in a season.

Chipper Jones was hitting .400 halfway through the season. Did we expect him to continue that torrid pace all year? No, his performance was expected to regress as more plate appearances were accrued. The term can be a bit confusing because it so often finds itself used with overachieving players, but, just like Chipper Jones, it goes both ways… to clarify, that’s a switch-hitter joke. Regression can also refer to a player like Robinson Cano, who performed so poorly at the beginning of this year that you knew he just had to get better. His regression resulted in an impovement.

Three pitchers we have discussed multiple times on this site in posts involving this very term are Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, and Gavin Floyd. All three are in the midst of career years, but either their ERA-FIP differential or true talent projections told us that they would not be very likely to sustain their performance levels all year. Since all three have made 27 starts, let’s compare the first 18 to the most recent 9 (keep in mind that the FIP is crude here, merely adding 3.20 instead of the exact figure):

Joe Saunders, LAA
18: 120.1 IP, 105 H, 14 HR, 31 BB, 63 K, 3.07 ERA, 4.44 FIP
9:  50.1 IP,   62 H,  5 HR, 17 BB, 18 K, 5.19 ERA, 4.79 FIP

Gavin Floyd, CHW
18: 111.2 IP, 87 H, 17 HR, 47 BB, 75 K, 3.63 ERA, 5.10 FIP
9:  55.1 IP,  56 H,  6 HR, 17 BB, 44 K, 3.58 ERA, 3.94 FIP

Ervin Santana, LAA
18: 121.1 IP, 106 H, 12 HR, 32 BB, 112 K, 3.56 ERA, 3.43 FIP
9:  62.1 IP,   57 H,  6 HR, 11 BB,  71 K, 2.70 ERA, 2.89 FIP

Oddly enough, only Saunders has experienced any type of regression over his most recent nine starts. Floyd and Santana have improved. While Floyd’s ERA is essentially the same in the split, his FIP is much better, meaning the performance has been more skill-driven than before. Santana has been pitching lately like the guy on the Mets with the same last name, if not better. With only four or so starts remaining for each of these players, barring some Sabathia-in-April-type performances, not much damage to their overall stat-lines can be done.

Still, one year of data isn’t enough to evaluate a player and the true talent level will still give us a much better estimate. This is why, even though Floyd and Santana are pitching very well, I would have to imagine they do not strike confidence in fans of the South Siders and Halos. The last important thing to remember is that regression does not always result in a bad season. Even though Saunders has performed poorly lately, he is not that bad, and still has a very solid ERA. He isn’t as good as we were “led to believe” early on, but not as bad as his most recent starts. The jury is still out on Floyd and Santana. Hopefully, next year, at this time, we’ll know if they are for real or flashes in the pan.

While perusing the league leaderboards last night I noticed that two former Phillies—Gavin Floyd and Kevin Millwood—are on the opposite ends of the ERA-FIP spectrum. Floyd’s -1.45 E-F is the largest negative discrepancy in the American League. Millwood, however, has a +1.31 differential, which ranks behind nobody other than Carlos Silva in his league. By looking solely at their standard barometers of W-L and ERA the seasons of these two pitchers can be very misleading.

Gavin Floyd, White Sox, 25 yrs old
10-6, 3.57 ERA
6.19 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.24 WHIP, .223 BA, 1.31 HR/9
.237 BABIP, 69.7% LOB, 5.02 FIP

Kevin Millwood, Rangers, 33 yrs old
6-6, 5.40 ERA
6.73 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 1.74 WHIP, .326 BA, 0.91 HR/9
.379 BABIP, 69.7% LOB, 4.09 FIP

Millwood has the higher K/9 as well as the lower BB/9 and HR/9. His Zito-esque WHIP and 5.40 ERA can largely be attributed to his .379 BABIP, a number 35 points ahead of closest competitor Livan Hernandez. Though his strand rate isn’t abnormally below average, Millwood has allowed plenty of baserunners thanks to no help from balls put in play against him. His 27.1% rate of line drives, which leads the league, could account for this; next closest is Jon Garland’s 24.2%. Over the past three years, when his BABIP was lower, he posted line drive rates of 20.6%-21.3%.

Floyd’s ERA is deceiving not just due to his controllable skills but also because he has actually allowed more runs to score than it would suggest. Floyd has allowed just 49 earned runs but 66 total runs; that’s 17 unearned runs that have scored against him not taken into account with his ERA. He also has the second lowest BABIP in the league, behind only Justin Duchsherer, and the seventh lowest line drive rate. While both he and Millwood have identical strand rates, Floyd has allowed much fewer runners to reach base thanks to an unsustainably low BABIP; Millwood’s has essentially been unsustainably high.

What happens when we plug these guys into the in-season Marcel?

Floyd: 11 GS, 4.85 FIP, 67 IP, 62 H, 25 BB, 46 K, 1.31 WHIP
Millwood: 11 GS, 4.04 FIP, 58 IP, 73 H, 21 BB, 44 K, 1.61 WHIP

All told, Floyd would end with an FIP of 4.96 and Millwood much lower at 4.07. Regardless, Floyd could win 14-15 games and look much better than he should whereas Millwood would have been the better pitcher in terms of controllable skills; his results, however, would be much worse. He can’t possibly keep up a .379 BABIP, just like Floyd can’t possibly sustain a .237, but it might be too late for their regression to make a truly significant impact on their overall seasonal lines. If anything it should still lessen their ERA-FIP differentials.

This is just another example of how W-L and ERA don’t necessarily do a pitcher justice. It seems like forever ago that Millwood was an important part of the Braves rotation, and toiling in Texas, owners of perhaps the worst rotation of the last fifteen or so years in 2007, hasn’t helped, but he has definitely been much better than his numbers suggest this year.

While it’s certainly possible for pitchers to outdo their FIP with ERA (see: Carlos Zambrano) I would tend to bet Floyd won’t fall into this category. Then again, I could be biased due to seeing him struggle for the Phillies early on. Floyd has been a key component of the first place White Sox, who quite possibly have the best rotation in the league (it’s either them or Toronto), but his success is hinged upon a ridiculously low BABIP. It won’t even out as the remainder of the season plays out but I would be hard-pressed to believe that, assuming he hovers around the average strand rate, when his BABIP regresses that his ERA will stay in the 3.57 range.

I can remember Gavin Floyd’s first start like it was yesterday. Never before had I been able to experience firsthand the sort of hype that surrounded him that night. The Phillies were in third place, playing the dreadful-at-the-time Mets, and had vastly underachieved all year long. When the hot prospect threw an absolutely ridiculous curveball to the befuddled Cliff Floyd, striking him out to end the first inning, it’s safe to say I was not alone in thinking this kid could be the answer.

Unfortunately, he was not the answer. Even though the Phillies went on a 20-8 run to close out the season, Floyd would frustrate fans with spurts of brilliance masked by the inability to harness his “stuff.” A change of scenery was deemed necessary and Floyd soon found himself a member of the Chicago White Sox.

In eight starts this year, Floyd is averaging a 56 Game Score, even coming close to throwing a no-no. His numbers:

8 GS, 4-2, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 49.1 IP, 33 H, 23 BB, 22 K

Okay, the walks and strikeouts clearly signal a red flag, but it has been very hard to hit Floyd in the early going. He has an opponents BABIP of just .193 which should also signal a red flag, especially considering his LD% would predict something in the .230 range. Oh, and his ridiculously low LD% requires us to buy a new set of flags since the 11.8% is a far cry from his 18.4% career rate.

His FIP of 5.07 results in the second highest discrepancy between FIP and ERA; only Fausto Carmona’s ERA has been luckier than Floyd’s. Instead of focusing on why he will not sustain this current level of performance, I would much rather look at what has contributed to these numbers.

His fastball usage has dipped from 72% in 2004 to 59% right now. He has increased his usage of sliders, mainly due to his development of the slider, and cut back on his curveball. The problem during Floyd’s Phillies tenure was that he could not locate his fastball; due to this, he would pitch behind hitters and not be able to utilize the curveball as much. Additionally, his changeup frequency has stayed stagnant. His velocities of these pitches have not shifted much since 2004 or even from last year to now.

Last week I wrote about Brett Myers and how odd it was that he had better numbers at home, in one of the top hitters parks in the league. The same can be said for Floyd:

Home: 3 GS, 21.2 IP, 7 H, 11 BB, 12 K, 2.08 ERA, .101/.220/.188, 16 OPS+
Road: 5 GS, 27.2 IP, 26 H, 12 BB, 10 K, 3.58 ERA, .252/.350/.456, 112 OPS+

Unlike Myers, whose road starts took place in notorious hitters parks, Floyd has experienced his fair share in pitchers parks this year.

It seems he has been successful due to his limited damage when runners get on base.

Nobody On: 126 PA, .180/.278/.252
Runners On: 77 PA, .213/.329/.525

Despite the increase in OPS with runners on he has also gotten help from five double play balls, and the fact of the matter is that I had to combine all of the baserunner states to even have something remotely close to a significant amount of PAs to analyze. In case the message was lost just now, Floyd has not allowed many runners to reach base and when they have he has done a good job keeping them there.

I don’t know if he’s found the right repertoire and frequency to help harness the “stuff” he clearly has but, for now, he definitely does not look as bad as he did in 2006.