Archive for Geoff Jenkins

The last few days have been particularly amusing in the sense that teams are getting rid of their sunk costs, players who instantly become linked to several other teams upon being released. First came Gary Sheffield, released by the Tigers despite being owed a hefty $14 mil. The Phillies followed by releasing Geoff Jenkins, seemingly in an attempt to replace him with Sheffield.

Then reports circulated that both Jenkins and Sheffield had made their way onto the Marlins radar. And today we learn that Sheffield has interest from three teams, of which two are the Reds and Phillies. But certain plans may have been wrenched today when it became evident that Andruw Jones is going to make the Rangers’ final roster.

By releasing Frank Catalanotto, the Rangers seem to be doing whatever they can to ensure that Jones breaks camp with the team. His story is too recent to be forgotten, so forgive me for not waxing poetic on the situation, but the Reds and Phillies were certainly banking on his being demoted or released. Both teams seem to be searching for a righty bench batter, and while Dave covered why Sheffield would not fit in with the Phillies current roster, Jones would have been a legitimate defensive replacement for the major league minimum capable of pinch-hitting and filling in when the inevitable injury bug strikes Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth.

Speaking of Catalanotto, guess who has interest? That’s right, the Florida Marlins, who recently released Dallas McPhereson, acquired Ross Gload from the Royals, and traded Robert Andino to the Orioles for Hayden Penn, all the while being linked to both Jenkins and Sheffield. The Marlins may have more interest in Catalanotto than either of Jenkins and Sheffield given his utility status, which would normally create a bidding war for the man with 499 dingers, but since anything above the minimum would only subtract from the amount owed by the Tigers, no such war will surface.

Thankfully, with the Phillies and Braves kicking off the season in just a couple of days the wacky offseason we have just experienced will come to a close, but now I’m curious to see who gets released each day and where they are immediately linked to playing. The watch is on for Jenkins, Sheffield, Catalanotto and McPhereson, as Jones looks poised to make the Rangers club.

As Dave noted yesterday, both Geoff Jenkins and Gary Sheffield were released by the Phillies and Tigers, respectively. The Phillies are on the books for Jenkins entire $8 mil salary while the Tigers will continue to pay $14 mil to Sheffield. Both players are available for the league minimum because of this, which makes them much more attractive assets. In fact, without this stipulation, they would be hardpressed to find employment.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro apparently contacted Sheffield and his agent, opening up the possibility of replacing a 34-yr old lefthanded hitter who has always played solid defense and can still run the bases with a 40-yr old righty capable of nothing more than pinch-hitting.

Now reports are circulating that Sheffield has an interest in joining the Florida Marlins, perhaps to finish his career with the team on which he did the most damage. One small problem: the Marlins might actually be more interested in Jenkins given the factors detailed above. Sheffield to the Fish would definitely have that glory days type of feel but Jenkins could simply do more for a team like that.

CHONE sees Jenkins capable of a .257/.327/.438 line with Sheff at .242/.341/.415 in virtually the same number of opportunities. Neither player is going to start, or at least neither should start, but if the two appear to be this close with the bat, and Jenkins gets the clear edge in fielding and running, as well as a 6-yr advantage in terms of youth, how could he not be the more viable option? Considering that neither will start, Jenkins is more reliable as a late-inning defensive replacement as well as a pinch-runner.

At $400,000, both of these players should find homes, but do not be surprised if Jenkins garners much more attention than Sheffield and his 499 dingers. Sheffield has had by far the better career but speaking strictly about what can be added to a team in 2009, Jenkins is the far better bet.

Well, it’s official: my Phillies phever has officially worn off, and now it’s back to business as usual, worrying about what they will do in the off-season. Newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro wasted no time signing lefty reliever Scott Eyre, and it is believed that the Phillies will also re-sign Jamie Moyer, even if the deal lasts two years. Otherwise, just about everyone not currently locked down to a long-term deal is eligible for arbitration. Most, if not all, of these players—Greg Dobbs, Joe Blanton, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Chad Durbin, Shane Victorino, Ryan Madson, and Jayson Werth—are going to win their case, meaning raises will be due across the board.

This will make it harder for Amaro to go out and sign an impact player, though most of the positions are already set in stone, with the bulk of their core returning. The only true question mark at this point involves the outfield. Victorino and Werth will be back, and together form a tandem of all-around, very productive players, that many people still don’t know about. Pat Burrell’s spot is another story.

Burrell has mentioned numerous times that he would love to return, but he is currently seeking a three-year deal. Speculation surfaced that Amaro would offer two years, so if he ups the deal to a third year, it is very likely that Burrell returns. With free agent starting tomorrow, though, my personal feeling is that Pat the Bat will be offered much more money elsewhere, an opportunity cost too great for him to offer a hometown discount and return.

The trio of Burrell, Victorino, and Werth formed one of the top, if not the top, offensive outfields in 2008, combining for a WPA/LI of just under seven wins above average. Defensively, Victorino was about two wins above average with a positional adjustment; Werth was about a half of a win above average; and Burrell was just under two and a half wins below average. All told, factoring in offense and defense, the Phillies outfield was close to seven wins above average this past season.

There were rumors that the Phillies would send a package headlined by Victorino to the Rockies for Matt Holliday, but Ken Mandel of MLB.com recently reported that the two clubs were never realistically close to making a deal. If they opt to resign Burrell, and are able to make a deal in the same range as other suitors, here are the projections for 2009:

Pat Burrell:     .253/.377/.490, 32 HR, 29 2B
Jayson Werth:    .279/.369/.484, 25 HR, 25 2B, 21 SB
Shane Victorino: .286/.345/.428, 13 HR, 24 2B, 27 SB

If Burrell signs elsewhere, Amaro has mentioned that he would likely platoon the left-handed combo of Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs, and Greg Dobbs with a right-handed bat signed from the free agent market. The righty bats that have been linked to the Phillies are Kevin Mench, Rocco Baldelli, Jerry Hairston, and most recently, albeit from a trade and not free agency, Jermaine Dye. Below are the projections for these players:

Geoff Jenkins:  .257/.330/.441, 15 HR, 22 2B
Kevin Mench:    .264/.322/.430,  7 HR, 16 2B
Rocco Baldelli: .279/.330/.465, 12 HR, 18 2B
Jerry Hairston: .264/.333/.391,  4 HR, 14 2B
Jermaine Dye:   .270/.334/.491, 31 HR, 33 2B
Matt Stairs:    .242/.341/.409, 12 HR, 17 2B 
Greg Dobbs:     .284/.329/.432,  8 HR, 16 2B

Other than Dye, who is a very significant power threat, all of these players have very similar projections for next season. Defensively, believe it or not, but Jenkins was +6 in 2006, and +18 as the second best left-fielder in 2007, before being right around average in his limited rightfield role in 2008. He might not be worth two wins above average defensively, but he is certainly more defensively sound than Burrell. Mench was +5 in rightfield in 2007, and +2 in limited duty this season. Baldelli doesn’t have a large enough sample size to base defensive evaluations on, but he should be no worse than average, which is about the same for Hairston.

Dye has posted the following numbers: -14, -41, -17. He has ranged from around 1.5-2 wins below average defensively, which comes pretty close to cancelling out the offensive production. At this stage in his career, Stairs is nothing more than an offensive threat, and while a larger role for Dobbs is likely merited, his arm is suspect and he is not a natural outfielder.

Dye is owed 11.5 million in 2009, and has a club option for 2010 worth 12 million. Oddly enough, that 23.5 million is about the same amount Amaro has hinted he would be offering to Burrell. This is all assuming Dye is even being dangled, which he very well may not be. If they lose Burrell to free agency, and opt to go with a Jenkins/Mench, Jenkins/Baldelli, or Jenkins/Hairston platoon, they are going to lose some offensive production, but improve defensively. With both Utley and Howard entrenched in the lineup, a big righty power bat sure would be nice, but Jenkins is due to perform better than he did in 2008, and a nice righty platoon partner wouldn’t be as dramatic a dropoff in total production (both offensively and defensively) as many would think.

For most of the season all eyes directed towards the Phillies offense have been focused on Chase Utley. And why not? After all, Chase can be found in the top five or top ten in just about every offensive category in the National League. Recently, though, Utley has hit a coldspell, posting a .203/.294/.356 slash line in his last sixteen games. Luckily for the Phillies, others have stepped up and filled the void.

My brother, who covers the Phillies at Phanatic Phollow Up, wrote yesterday about how not just one but many Phillies hitters are stepping up at this juncture. In his first 19 games, Shane Victorino had a .626 OPS; in his last 19 games it has been .773, raising his season OPS to .703. Geoff Jenkins had a .237/.284/.329 slash line through 24 games; in his last 21 it has been .339/.358/.468. Even Pedro Feliz is at a .304/.333/.478 clip over his last 12 games.

Of all the players stepping up, none is more satisfying to Phillies fans than Ryan Howard. Since May 7th, Howard has played 18 games, with a .264/.321/.681 slash line, 4 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR and 18 RBI. On the season he has 14 HR, coming in just behind Lance Berkman, Dan Uggla, and teammate Utley. Howard is still striking out, 28 K in these 18 games, but the extra base hits, about half of which have been to the opposite field, are definitely a promising sign.

He puts about one-third of his flyballs into the stands and hits a lot of balls hard, as evidenced by his ~20% line drives. Despite lacking anything resembling speed, Howard has had very high BABIPs for his career; .375 in 2004, .358 in 2005, .363 in 2006, .336 in 2007. This year, however, it is only .245. This should regress to his mean as the season progresses meaning Howard could, and probably will, defy his critics by having what ends up as a good season.

The strikeouts are definitely a problem but, unlike in April, when he was just striking out, now he is striking out and hitting the ball hard, often out of the stadium.